Core Viewpoint - The company is primarily engaged in the maritime transportation of bulk liquid hazardous goods, including liquid chemicals, refined oil, and liquefied petroleum gas, and aims to become a leading comprehensive service provider in the chemical supply chain both internationally and domestically [2]. Group 1 - The company currently operates chemical tankers and has not yet entered the liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation sector due to the need for specialized vessels and significant investment per ship [2]. - LNG transportation is identified as a strategic development direction for the company, indicating future potential expansion into this market [2]. - The company is closely monitoring market dynamics in energy transportation and plans to advance related strategies based on business development and market opportunities [2].

调整盈利预测，维持"买入"评级 外贸化学品船租金在回调 兴通股份的船舶运力有望继续增加，但是内外贸危化品船运价回调拖累业绩，下调2025 年预测归母净 利润至4.06 亿元（原预测5.24 亿元）；引入2026-27 年预测归母净利润分别为4.82、5.29 亿元。维持"买 入"评级。 2024 年，全球化学品船租金和东亚部分航线化学品船运价，都处于历史较高水平，2024 年下半年都开 始回调。2024 年，5 年船龄的2 万载重吨化学品船价格在历史较高水平，2025 年初开始小幅回调。根据 Clarkson 统计数据，我们预计2025-26 年全球化学品船运力增速4.9%、5.7%，略高于2024 年的3.4%，可 能给未来外贸化学品船运价带来压力。2024 年兴通股份的国外业务毛利率29%，如果运价下跌，航次 租船业务的毛利可能先受影响。 风险提示：化工品产量波动，国内化学品出口不及预期，危化品运输出现安全事故，燃油价格大幅上 涨，测算具有主观性仅供参考。 内贸化学品运价在历史相对低位 2023 和2024 年，兴通股份的运力规模分别增长48%和12%，带动营业收入分别增长58%和22%、归母净 利润分别 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][4]. Core Views - The domestic chemical shipping market is experiencing a decline in freight rates, with a projected decrease of 5% in 2024. However, the company's domestic business gross margin is expected to improve to 40.6% from 36% in 2023, attributed to long-term contracts with major clients [1][4]. - Global chemical shipping rates are at historically high levels but are expected to start declining in the second half of 2024. The company's foreign business gross margin is projected at 29% for 2024, which may be impacted by falling freight rates [2][4]. - The company's shipping capacity is expected to grow significantly, with a 48% increase in 2023 and a 12% increase in 2024, leading to revenue growth of 58% and 22% respectively, and net profit growth of 22% and 39% [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to reach 1,858.22 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.68%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 405.88 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15.83% [5][22]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to be 783.00 million yuan in 2025, with a corresponding increase in net profit margins [5][22]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a projected net profit of 4.06 billion yuan for 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 5.24 billion yuan, while introducing new profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [4][22]. Market Context - The domestic chemical shipping market is nearing a supply-demand inflection point, with some major shipowners shifting capacity to foreign trade routes due to declining domestic rates [1][2]. - The global chemical shipping capacity is expected to grow at rates of 4.9% and 5.7% in 2025-26, which may exert pressure on future freight rates [2][16].