化工涨价品种再梳理 20251207 摘要 MDI 市场：受检修和陶氏、亨斯曼、万华提价影响，供给端支撑强劲， 国内厂商四季度有检修计划，短期内 MDI 整体景气状况预计明显回暖， 价格上涨意愿强烈。 煤化工产品：锦瑞祥安累计上涨 1,300 元/吨，丁腈醇反弹 700-1,200 元/吨，醋酸反弹 174 元/吨，草酸上涨 430 元/吨，尿素反弹 120 元/吨， 受出口配额和储备需求支撑，相关企业具备投资机会。 万华化学：2025-2026 年多个项目投产，显著提升市场供应能力，新 能源业务积极布局磷酸铁锂正极材料，预计 2026 年电池业务大概率实 现盈利。 农药行业：库存压缩至极限位置，海外库存维持在 30-45 天，预计年底 前后将有更多订单补充春耕所需，带动价格积极变化，关注扬农、润丰 等龙头标的。 钛白粉市场：全球供给收紧，需求稳步增长，预计未来价格缓慢上行， 龙佰集团作为全球最大生产商，通过海内外扩张和产业链配套，成本竞 争力显著，利润有望攀升。 Q&A 近期化工品价格上涨的原因主要包括行业协同、工序变化、海外装置不可抗力 以及检修等因素。具体来看，MDI（甲苯二异氰酸酯）方面，亨斯曼荷兰的 ...

Group 1: Institutional Research and Market Performance - Last week, from March 24 to 28, institutional research enthusiasm surged, with 150 listed companies disclosing research summaries by March 28, including companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control and Jinzai Food receiving over 100 institutional inquiries [1] - The performance of stocks under institutional research was generally poor, with only over 30% of companies achieving positive returns, while companies like Yizhi Magic Yam and Xiaogoods City saw increases of over 10% [1] - The chemical sector showed notable performance, with over 10 listed companies receiving institutional inquiries, particularly Yun Tianhua and Satellite Chemical, each hosting around 140 institutional visits [1] Group 2: Chemical Industry Insights - Yun Tianhua, primarily engaged in the phosphate industry, reported a cumulative increase of over 5% last week, with a maximum increase of 9% during the week, attributed to stable domestic market conditions for diammonium phosphate and rising prices for monoammonium phosphate due to sulfur price fluctuations and increased fertilizer demand [1][2] - The international phosphate fertilizer prices remain high due to cost support and tight supply-demand dynamics [1] - Yun Tianhua noted that last year's price increase for industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate was driven by increased planting areas and improved fertilization techniques, indicating a favorable market outlook for this product [2] Group 3: Fertilizer and Chemical Production - Cloud Map Holdings, focusing on compound fertilizers, indicated strong future demand for monoammonium phosphate, particularly in the industrial sector, supported by high upstream prices for phosphate rock and sulfur [3] - The company emphasized its control over raw material production capacity and plans for a 700,000-ton synthetic ammonia project to ensure stable supply and self-sufficiency in nitrogen fertilizer raw materials [4] Group 4: Engineering Machinery Market Outlook - Zoomlion Heavy Industry, after disclosing its financial report, received inquiries from 120 institutions, stating that the domestic engineering machinery market has declined for three consecutive years and is likely at the bottom, with expectations for gradual recovery by 2025 [8] - The company plans to accelerate international market expansion and develop high-margin products in sectors like earthmoving machinery and industrial vehicles, which will enhance its gross margin [9] Group 5: Agricultural Products and Food Processing - China’s largest agricultural and food processing company, Jinlongyu, expressed increasing confidence in the economic outlook, which is expected to boost consumer demand [10] - The company analyzed that the abundant soybean harvest in South America and increased domestic soybean reserves would mitigate the impact of tariffs on soybean supply, predicting overall business improvement across various sectors this year [11] Group 6: Home Appliance Industry Trends - TCL Smart Home indicated that the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy and export growth would support stable growth in the overall Chinese home appliance market [13] - The company plans to enhance its global market position through increased R&D investment, optimized product structure, and strengthened brand competitiveness [14]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector has experienced a significant surge, with many stocks hitting their daily limit or rising over 10%, driven by price increases and expectations of further price hikes in chemical products [1][2]. Price Trends - The bromine market has seen a price increase of 30% since the beginning of 2025, with the average price reaching 28,000 yuan/ton by March 25, 2025 [1][2]. - Prices for fatty alcohols have also risen sharply, surpassing last year's highs, with a cumulative increase of over 106% compared to early last year [2]. - The price of double polyol has skyrocketed from over 20,000 yuan/ton in October 2024 to a range of 55,000 to 63,000 yuan/ton by March 2025, marking a 175% increase [2]. Supply and Demand Factors - Rising raw material costs and production halts by major companies have contributed to the price increases in chemical products [2]. - The bromine industry is currently facing low operating rates and low inventory levels, with traditional peak demand periods approaching [2]. - The bromine market's supply is constrained by production safety regulations and limited underground brine resources, leading to increased reliance on imports [3]. Downstream Demand - Brominated flame retardants account for over 65% of bromine consumption, with applications in high-frequency PCB circuit boards and fiber optic cables, which are expected to drive demand growth [4]. - The demand for double polyol is also influenced by rising prices of upstream raw materials like formaldehyde and acetaldehyde, with a projected increase in acetaldehyde prices from 12,000 yuan/ton in 2024 to 13,000-15,000 yuan/ton in 2025 [5].