Group 1 - Weifang is a significant chemical city in Shandong, with high-end chemicals being a crucial pillar industry [1] - Shandong Haiwang Chemical Co., Ltd. is headquartered in Weifang and specializes in the research, production, and sales of bromine and bromides, ranking among the top domestic bromine chemical enterprises [1] - The company was established in 2003, evolving from a collective salt field, and has expanded its product range from industrial salt to bromine, bromides, and new material products, enhancing its technological content over the years [1] Group 2 - The core products of Shandong Haiwang Chemical include brominated flame retardants and oilfield chemicals, with applications in various industries such as plastics, rubber, and construction materials [3] - The company is the only Chinese member of the International Bromine Industry Association and holds leadership positions in several industry associations, reflecting its prominence in the bromine sector [3] - Shandong Haiwang Chemical is recognized as a high-tech enterprise with provincial-level technology centers and has applied for multiple technology patents, contributing to product development and quality improvement [3]

Summary of Antimony and Tin Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony price has historically fluctuated due to supply and demand factors, with significant price increases observed from 2008 to 2010 due to environmental policies and mine restructuring, and again from 2020 onwards driven by photovoltaic demand and global supply tightness [1][3] - Antimony prices surged by 89% from early 2024 to September, primarily due to the suspension of operations at Hunan Gold's Xinglong Mining, export disruptions from Russia, and a 25% increase in China's photovoltaic installations [1][4] - Tin resources are scarce, with a static reserve-to-production ratio of only 20 years, lower than copper and aluminum [1][7] - Global tin production has decreased significantly since 2011, with China being the main contributor to this decline [1][7] Key Points on Antimony - Antimony is primarily used in flame retardants (40%-50%) and photovoltaic glass (25%-30%) [1][7] - High-end industries such as 5G communication and electric vehicles are expected to drive demand for flame retardants [1][7] - The price of antimony is expected to rise in the short term due to the recovery of exports, with a near-zero export volume in May and June due to anti-smuggling efforts [2][5] - Antimony prices are projected to stabilize before the Spring Festival in 2025, with a significant increase from 140,000 to 240,000 yuan, a rise of 68% driven by photovoltaic demand and reduced imports [5] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Antimony prices reached a peak of 190,000 yuan due to high demand and supply constraints, but have since corrected due to reduced exports and domestic production cuts in photovoltaic glass [4][5] - The cost of antimony in photovoltaic components is relatively low, accounting for only 0.5% to 1% of the total cost, which limits the overall impact of price fluctuations on photovoltaic modules [9] Future Outlook for Antimony - Huaxi Company is expected to see a 160% increase in production over the next two years, benefiting from the injection of 5G technology and expansion of high-grade mines [11][12] - Hunan Gold's performance in the first half of 2025 was below expectations due to export controls, but a recovery in exports is anticipated to boost performance in the second half [13] Key Points on Tin - The tin industry faces significant supply challenges, with major producing countries being China (48%), Russia (16%), and Tajikistan (20%) [7] - The marginal grade of China's main tin mines has decreased from 1.0%-1.5% to 0.5%, indicating a decline in production capacity [7] - The demand for tin is primarily driven by flame retardants and photovoltaic glass, with high-end industries contributing to growth [7][8] Additional Insights - Antimony's applications in the semiconductor and military sectors present growth opportunities, particularly in fourth-generation semiconductors and military equipment [10] - The market for brominated flame retardants has shown resilience, with ongoing demand despite previous price pressures [8]

Group 1 - Shandong Province's Industry and Information Technology Department announced the list of recognized characteristic industrial clusters for 2025, with seven clusters related to the chemical industry chain demonstrating strong competitiveness in scale, technological innovation, green development, and industrial chain collaboration [1] - The seven recognized chemical industry clusters include: Dongying City HeKou District Fine Chemical New Materials, Longkou City High-end Chemical New Materials, Jining City Yanzhou District High-end Rubber Products, Jinxing County High-end Chemical, Pingyuan County High-efficiency Compound Fertilizer, Yanggu County Chemical New Materials, and Caoxian Rubber and Additives [1] Group 2 - Dongying City HeKou District focuses on fine chemicals and high polymer materials, covering the entire process from crude oil to high value-added new materials, while promoting green low-carbon transformation through the introduction of clean energy [1] - Longkou City's high-end chemical cluster, led by Yulong Petrochemical and Daon Group, emphasizes high value-added products such as modified plastics and brominated flame retardants, leveraging the Yulong Island refining and chemical integration project [1] - Jining City Yanzhou District's high-end rubber products cluster constructs a complete industrial chain through a "rubber + equipment + R&D" model and promotes intelligent transformation under the "Assisting Enterprises Climb" policy [2] - Jinxing County's high-end chemical cluster, based on coal chemical industry, develops high-tech industries such as fluorosilicon materials and biomedicine, with 76 enterprises and a "three-level review" mechanism to ensure project quality [2] - Pingyuan County's high-efficiency compound fertilizer cluster, led by Enbao Biological and Xinyi Pharmaceutical, aims to create a ten-million-ton compound fertilizer industry chain, with a domestic market share of 80% for seaweed acid functional fertilizers [2] - Yanggu County's chemical new materials cluster focuses on rubber additives and various piping products, continuously increasing market share [2] - Caoxian's rubber and additives cluster includes 17 enterprises, with a projected output value of 10.7 billion yuan in 2024 and 7,086 employees, featuring two national-level manufacturing champions and one specialized "little giant" enterprise [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metal antimony industry Core Insights - The demand for metal antimony in China is projected to increase from 7.95 million tons in 2021 to 9.37 million tons in 2023, with a slight decline expected thereafter [10] - The demand for metal antimony in flame retardants is expected to stabilize around 4.0 million tons from 2024 to 2030 [11] - The demand for metal antimony in photovoltaic glass is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching 2.02 million tons in 2023 and 3 million tons by 2030 [12][67] - The demand for metal antimony in lead-acid batteries is projected to decline sharply from 1.97 million tons in 2021 to 0.24 million tons by 2027 [13][100] - The production of flame retardants in China is expected to increase from 117.14 million tons in 2021 to 150.04 million tons by 2030 [16] - The share of brominated flame retardants is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2021 to 12.5% by 2030 [20] - The estimated new installed capacity of photovoltaics in China is projected to rise from 54.88 GW in 2021 to 297.05 GW by 2030 [34] - The market share of monofacial solar modules is expected to decline from 62.6% in 2021 to 0% by 2030, while bifacial modules will increase from 37.4% to 100% in the same period [39][49] Summary by Sections Metal Antimony Demand - The total demand for metal antimony in China is calculated as the sum of various sectors, with projections indicating fluctuations in demand over the next decade [10] Flame Retardants - The demand for metal antimony in flame retardants is derived from the production of flame retardants and is expected to remain stable [11][29] Photovoltaic Industry - The demand for metal antimony in photovoltaic glass is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing installation of solar panels [12][67] - The anticipated new installed capacity of photovoltaics in China shows a robust growth trajectory [34] Lead-Acid Batteries - The demand for metal antimony in lead-acid batteries is projected to decline sharply, reflecting changes in battery technology and market dynamics [13][100] Chemical Products - The demand for metal antimony in chemical products, particularly as a polyester catalyst, is expected to remain stable over the forecast period [103] Other Sectors - The demand for metal antimony in other sectors is projected to show modest growth, indicating a diversified application of the material [107]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector has experienced a significant surge, with many stocks hitting their daily limit or rising over 10%, driven by price increases and expectations of further price hikes in chemical products [1][2]. Price Trends - The bromine market has seen a price increase of 30% since the beginning of 2025, with the average price reaching 28,000 yuan/ton by March 25, 2025 [1][2]. - Prices for fatty alcohols have also risen sharply, surpassing last year's highs, with a cumulative increase of over 106% compared to early last year [2]. - The price of double polyol has skyrocketed from over 20,000 yuan/ton in October 2024 to a range of 55,000 to 63,000 yuan/ton by March 2025, marking a 175% increase [2]. Supply and Demand Factors - Rising raw material costs and production halts by major companies have contributed to the price increases in chemical products [2]. - The bromine industry is currently facing low operating rates and low inventory levels, with traditional peak demand periods approaching [2]. - The bromine market's supply is constrained by production safety regulations and limited underground brine resources, leading to increased reliance on imports [3]. Downstream Demand - Brominated flame retardants account for over 65% of bromine consumption, with applications in high-frequency PCB circuit boards and fiber optic cables, which are expected to drive demand growth [4]. - The demand for double polyol is also influenced by rising prices of upstream raw materials like formaldehyde and acetaldehyde, with a projected increase in acetaldehyde prices from 12,000 yuan/ton in 2024 to 13,000-15,000 yuan/ton in 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side uncertainty has deepened, and the price of bromine is expected to rise significantly [4] - China's bromine supply is heavily reliant on imports, with the import dependency increasing from 47.3% in 2021 to 56.8% in 2024 [5][10] - The demand for bromine is primarily driven by brominated flame retardants, which account for over 60% of domestic bromine consumption [5][12] - Rising costs of sulfur and shipping are expected to support bromine price increases [6] Summary by Sections Supply Side - China's bromine resources are scarce, mainly found in underground brine in Laizhou Bay, Shandong Province, with declining effective production capacity [5] - The geopolitical situation in the Red Sea may impact imports, leading to increased supply chain pressures and costs [5] Demand Side - Brominated flame retardants are the largest downstream application, with significant growth expected in the electronics sector due to the increasing use of PCBs [5] - The construction and mining sectors are also expected to provide rigid support for brominated flame retardant demand [5] Cost Side - Sulfur prices have been rising, with a current price of 2450 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 26.29% and a year-on-year increase of 160.64% [6][14] - Shipping costs are anticipated to recover due to seasonal improvements and geopolitical uncertainties, further increasing supply chain costs [6] Recommended Stocks - Key companies to watch include Shandong Haihua, Lubei Chemical, Yara International, and Sully Co., with significant bromine production capacities [6]