核心增长引擎切换。 我们今天要了解的芭田股份（002170.SZ，公司）。 作者 | beyond 编辑 | 小白 公司是国内复合肥行业首家上市公司，此前声称正经历从传统化肥制造商向"磷矿+高端复合肥+新能 源材料"磷化工一体化的战略转型。 在复合肥行业面临产品同质化与上游原料波动的双重挑战下，一批注重技术创新与产业链布局的企业 正显现出差异化的竞争力。 2024年，复合肥业务贡献26亿元，占总收入76.6%；磷矿石业务实现营收7.1亿元，同比增长82%。至 2025年上半年，磷矿石业务收入已升至9.98亿元，占总营收比重提升至39.3%，成为公司第二大收入 来源。 （数据来源：公司财报） 2025年前三季度，公司实现营业总收入38亿元，同比增长56.5%，其中磷矿石及其加工产品贡献显 著，复合肥业务贡献基本稳定，显示公司已进入复合肥与磷矿石的"双轮驱动"新阶段；归母净利润 6.9亿元，同比增长236%。 | | 本报告期 | 本报告期比上年同期 | 年初至报告期末 | 年初至报告期末比上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增减 | | 年同期增减 | | 营业收 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the compound fertilizer industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with expectations for leading companies to see volume and profit recovery, as well as increased dividends [5][7][28] - The compound fertilizer market is transitioning towards new types of fertilizers that are more efficient, specialized, functional, and precise, driven by changes in agricultural practices and consumer demand [28] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Side - The consumption of compound fertilizers has a strong necessity attribute, with the compound fertilizer application rate in China expected to continue rising. From 2000 to 2023, the application of compound fertilizers increased from 9.18 million tons to 24.01 million tons, with a CAGR of 4.3%, while the overall fertilizer application rate reached 47.8% in 2023 [20][24][22] 2. Supply Side - The compound fertilizer industry operates on a sales-based production model, with a low operating rate. As of November 2025, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity was 134.14 million tons, with an annualized operating rate of 38.8% [27][39][36] - The industry is characterized by a seasonal demand pattern, with production concentrated in resource-rich areas or sales locations, leading to a fragmented capacity distribution [28][39] 3. Price Review and Competitive Landscape - The pricing of compound fertilizers is primarily based on a cost-plus model, with raw material costs accounting for over 80% of total costs. The report notes that fluctuations in raw material prices significantly impact the profitability of compound fertilizers [43][42] - Leading companies are enhancing their competitive advantages through comprehensive strategies involving cost management, product development, branding, and distribution channels [6][7][28] 4. Company Analysis - Key players in the compound fertilizer industry include New Yangfeng, Yuntu Holdings, and Stanley, all of which have demonstrated significant advantages in terms of production capacity and integrated supply chains [6][7][28] - New Yangfeng has a production capacity of 7.98 million tons of compound fertilizers and has maintained a leading position in sales volume for several years [6][7] - Yuntu Holdings focuses on developing a nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer industry chain and has a production capacity of 7.45 million tons [6][7] - Stanley employs a comprehensive business model that integrates branding, channels, products, and services, with a production capacity of 5.90 million tons [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Si Er Te has shown a mixed performance in recent trading sessions, with a year-to-date increase of 18.55% but a slight decline of 1.06% over the past five trading days [2]. Company Overview - Si Er Te, officially known as Anhui Si Er Te Fertilizer Co., Ltd., is located in the Wangxi Industrial Park of Ningguo Economic and Technological Development Zone, established on November 5, 1997, and listed on January 18, 2011 [2]. - The company specializes in the research, production, sales, and service of various fertilizers, including compound fertilizers, ammonium phosphate, and ecological fertilizers [2]. - The revenue composition of Si Er Te includes: 51.84% from compound fertilizers, 30.78% from ammonium phosphate, 11.52% from mineral resources, 5.58% from other products, and 0.28% from medical services [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Si Er Te achieved a revenue of 3.225 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.27%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 36.49% to 155 million yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.459 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 529 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Si Er Te was 41,000, a decrease of 8.55% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 9.36% to 20,837 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 7.8954 million shares, an increase of 28,500 shares compared to the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continued its adjustment, with the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index closing down 4.30% last Friday and down 6.47% for the week, but still showing a cumulative increase of 27.66% since the second half of the year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by over 16% [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) will be listed on November 25, having raised a net subscription amount of 549.89 million RMB during its fundraising period from November 10 to November 12, with a total of 549.91 million shares issued [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index, covering various segments of the chemical industry, including phosphorus chemicals, fluorine chemicals, phosphorus fertilizers, and potassium fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The basic chemical industry has seen an increase in profit growth in the first three quarters, continuing its bottom recovery, with the overall gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% for the first three quarters of 2025, both showing a slight year-on-year recovery [2] - The profitability of sub-industries within the basic chemical sector has shown significant differentiation, with improvements noted in fluorine chemicals, potassium fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers [2]

Group 1: Company Announcements - Yaxing Chemical plans to acquire 100% equity of Tianyi Chemical through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with the transaction expected to add bromine series fine chemical products to its portfolio [1] - Jierong Technology elected Zhao Xiaoqun as the new chairman following the resignation of Zhang Shouzhi due to work adjustments [2] - Huan Tai Liquor's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 70 million to 140 million yuan within six months [5] - Unigroup plans to acquire 1.28 million USD worth of shares in H3C, increasing its ownership from 81% to 82.8% [7] - Daily Interactive intends to invest up to 10 million yuan in the Yuhang AI Fund, which has a total scale of up to 100 million yuan [11] - Daan Gene's indirect controlling shareholder is set to change to Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group, which will control 26.63% of the company after the completion of share transfers [12] Group 2: Industry Insights - The basic chemical industry is represented by Yaxing Chemical, which focuses on chlorinated polyethylene and caustic soda production [1] - Jierong Technology operates in the electronic industry, specializing in precision molds and components [2] - Huan Tai Liquor is part of the food and beverage industry, specifically in the production and sale of alcoholic beverages [5] - Unigroup is involved in the IT services sector, providing comprehensive ICT infrastructure and services [7] - Daily Interactive operates in the software development industry, offering data intelligence products and solutions [11] - Daan Gene is in the medical biotechnology sector, focusing on molecular diagnostic technologies [12]

Core Viewpoint - Stanley Agricultural Group Co., Ltd. has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the year 2025, indicating a strong performance in the agricultural sector, particularly in the fertilizer market [2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Stanley reported a revenue of 9.29 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.91% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 815 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 22.71% compared to the previous year [2]. Stock Performance - Stanley's stock price has increased by 42.76% year-to-date, with a 5.10% rise over the last five trading days, 8.72% over the last 20 days, and 8.19% over the last 60 days [1]. - The stock was trading at 10.10 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 11.634 billion yuan as of November 12 [1]. Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders decreased by 7.15% to 33,100 as of September 30, 2025, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 7.70% to 25,937 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.373 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 559 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the seventh largest circulating shareholder is GF Stable Growth Mixed A, holding 18.9696 million shares, a decrease of 9.038 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the eighth largest circulating shareholder, holding 18.9608 million shares, down by 3.4064 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend, as the chemical industry faces a slowdown in capital expenditure and an approaching cyclical turning point [1] Group 1: Beneficial Sectors - Recommended sectors include pesticides, urea, soda ash, filament, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, China's counter-cyclical policies are expected to boost domestic demand, making sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical attractive [1] Group 2: New Material Development - The development of new productive forces, self-control, and industrial upgrading are emphasized as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary development direction for China's chemical industry [1] - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: High Shareholder Returns - High-quality companies with substantial shareholder returns are expected to continue their revaluation journey, particularly state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas petrochemical sector, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and leading companies in the MSG/feed amino acid industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on specific sectors within the chemical industry that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend and the upcoming economic cycle shift, while also highlighting the importance of new material development in the context of national competition [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended for sectors such as pesticides, urea, soda ash, long fibers, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical are suggested for investment as they may help stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Development Focus - The report emphasizes the development of new productive forces, self-sufficiency, and industrial upgrades as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary focus for the Chinese chemical industry [1] - Specific attention is drawn to the continuous development of semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: Quality Enterprises - High shareholder returns from quality enterprises are expected to continue their revaluation journey, with a focus on leading state-owned enterprises in oil and gas, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and amino acid industries for feed and flavoring [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on lithium hexafluorophosphate and phosphorus chemical sectors due to their positive outlook [1][5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector saw a 3.54% increase in the first week of November, underperforming the Shanghai A-share index by 2.45 percentage points [2][11]. - Key stocks that performed well include Qing Shui Yuan (+47.78%), Fo Si Technology (+33.38%), and Chengxing Co. (+24.63%) [2][11]. - The report highlights the benefits of rising prices in lithium hexafluorophosphate for companies like Duofu and Shenzhen New Star, and the high demand in the phosphorus chemical sector for Yuntianhua [5]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry had 25 sub-sectors increase in value, with the top five being phosphate fertilizers (+18.15%), phosphorus chemicals and phosphates (+13.61%), and inorganic salts (+12.12%) [3][15]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector is reported at 22.57 times, significantly higher than the average PE of 11.23 times since 2015 [2][11]. Price and Margin Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases include folic acid (+20%), nitric acid (+10.43%), and sulfur (+9.95%) [4][18]. - The report also notes significant price drops for liquid chlorine (-34%) and butadiene (-7.69%) [4][18]. - The price margin for sodium tripolyphosphate increased by 27.63%, while the margin for propylene (methanol-based) saw a drastic decrease of 826% [4][38]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester filament showing a decrease of 26.81% and epoxy propane increasing by 8.53% [5][60]. Recommendations - The report maintains a recommendation for companies benefiting from the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate and those in the phosphorus chemical sector [5].

Group 1 - The chemical sector showed strong performance, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 2.65% by the end of the trading day [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector included phosphate chemicals, polyester, petrochemicals, and compound fertilizers, with notable gains from companies like Xin Fengming and Yuntianhua, both hitting the daily limit [1][2] - The basic chemical sector attracted significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 10.593 billion yuan on the day, ranking fourth among 30 sectors [3] Group 2 - The yellow phosphorus index surged over 4% on November 4, indicating rising market expectations for price increases in the phosphate chemical sector [3][4] - The recent price increases in phosphate-related products are attributed to reduced production from wet-process phosphoric acid facilities and recovering demand for downstream electrolyte raw materials [4] - The domestic market for phosphate rock has been tight, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 900 yuan per ton for over two years [4] Group 3 - Analysts expect structural optimization in the supply side of the basic chemical industry, with domestic policies addressing overcapacity and international competitors shutting down due to cost pressures [5] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks a diversified index covering various segments of the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks [5] - The ETF provides an efficient way for investors to gain exposure to the chemical sector, which is expected to see a recovery in profitability and demand in the coming years [5]