Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, is transforming a geopolitical crisis into a systemic supply shock for the global chemical industry, with significant impacts on various chemical products and companies across multiple regions [3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Disruptions - Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, there has been a widespread declaration of force majeure affecting major chemical products, including ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC, and LNG, impacting companies in countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Poland, Germany, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [3]. - The North American spot market has reacted sharply, with ethylene prices rising by 24.0%, propylene by 12.8%, and polypropylene by 25.0% compared to the last week of February [4][10]. - The availability of raw materials is identified as the critical bottleneck, with potential further declines in operating rates in the Middle East and Asia if the conflict persists and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked [4]. Group 2: Impact on Olefins and Raw Materials - The olefins supply chain is particularly hard-hit, with 3.9% of global ethylene capacity and 3.2% of propylene capacity currently under force majeure, marking an increase of approximately 1.7 percentage points since March 6 [5]. - Southeast Asia and Central Europe are the most affected regions, with 20.4% of ethylene capacity in Southeast Asia and 60.2% in Central Europe impacted [6]. - Specific companies like Formosa Plastics and Aster Chemicals have announced force majeure due to supply disruptions, affecting significant annual capacities of ethylene and propylene [6][7]. Group 3: Downstream Effects on Polyolefins - The force majeure declarations are rapidly transmitting down the supply chain, with 1.4% of global polyethylene (PE) capacity and 1.0% of polypropylene (PP) capacity now under force majeure, reflecting increases of 0.8 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively [8]. - Companies such as LyondellBasell and PT Chandra Asri have also declared force majeure, citing raw material shortages and logistical delays due to the conflict [8][9]. Group 4: Chlor-Alkali and Vinyl Products - The chlor-alkali and vinyl products sector has seen significant participation from Chinese companies in force majeure declarations, with 5.2% of global PVC capacity, 5.4% of VCM, and 6.4% of EDC now affected [11]. - Major Chinese firms like Tianjin Bohua and LG Chem have announced force majeure due to upstream supply disruptions caused by the conflict [11]. Group 5: LNG Supply Chain Impact - The LNG supply chain has been severely impacted, with Qatar Energy declaring force majeure on its entire LNG operations due to attacks on its facilities [12]. - Other companies, including Petronet LNG and EQUATE, have followed suit, citing disruptions in shipping and raw material supply as reasons for their force majeure declarations [12].