Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate weakly. The macro environment has a pessimistic market sentiment, with the weak reality dominating the market. The cost of chemical coke is weak. Fundamentally, manufacturers have cut production, and the operating rate has reached a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The demand side of steel is in a seasonal off - season [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: Domestically, multiple regions have issued standards to support high - quality development of urban housing and the real estate market. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to April was 16.92 billion yuan, and new local government bonds worth 149.27 billion yuan were issued. Overseas, ASEAN has a five - year strategic plan, and Putin proposed conditions to end the Ukraine war [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Manufacturers' production cuts have led the operating rate to a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 25,000 tons, and the downstream molten iron production has peaked and declined. The spot profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are - 240 yuan/ton and - 430 yuan/ton respectively. Steel mills are cautious in procurement, and tender prices continue to fall [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - manganese main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Considering the weak cost of chemical coke, high inventory, and the seasonal off - season of steel demand, the silicon - manganese market should be treated as oscillating weakly [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 30, the position of silicon - manganese futures contracts was 626,100 lots, an increase of 7,224 lots. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts was 40, a decrease of 22. The number of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts was 106,973, a decrease of 7,484. The spread between the September contracts of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon was 306, an increase of 18 [13][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 30, the ex - factory average price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The basis was 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: As of May 29, the national operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 34.77%, an increase of 0.59%. The daily average output was 24,275 tons, an increase of 675 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel grades for silicon - manganese was 126,886 tons, an increase of 0.23%. The weekly supply of national silicon - manganese was 169,925 tons, an increase of 2.86% [24]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 201,100 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons [29]. - **Upstream**: As of May 29, the price of South African manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, a decrease of 4. The price of Australian manganese ore was 43 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 25,000 tons. The arrival volume from South Africa increased by 30% week - on - week and 111% year - on - year [35][41]. - **Production Cost and Profit**: As of May 30, the spot production cost in the northern region of silicon - manganese was 5,765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30. The profit was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70. In the southern region, the cost was 6,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70, and the profit was - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 [48]. - **Downstream**: As of May 30, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.91 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons week - on - week. The tender price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon - manganese in May was 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton compared to April [51].