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一文纵览全国分省份财政社融特征
GF SECURITIES· 2026-01-28 07:49
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The average narrow deficit ratio for all provinces in 2024 is 16.4%, and the average broad deficit ratio is 20.0%, both at relatively low levels since 2010. The average debt ratio stands at 357.0%, which has been on the rise since 2016 [5] Summary by Sections Regional Finance - The average tax revenue ratio across provinces is 67.2% in 2024, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.7%. The overall trend indicates a decrease in tax revenue reliance [20][26] - The average fiscal self-sufficiency rate for all provinces is 43.9% in 2024, reflecting a continuous decline since 2013 [17][19] - The government fund budget, which accounts for 20% of fiscal revenue, has seen a revenue decline of 14.2% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate market [27][28] Regional Social Financing - The new social financing has shown significant differentiation, with a notable concentration in economically developed eastern regions. Approximately 60% of the new social financing increment from 2020 to 2024 has been directed towards eastern regions, although this percentage has been gradually declining [5] - In 2024, the marginal contribution of government financing has increased, while corporate financing has decreased. The contribution of government departments to new loans is 69.1%, while corporate and household contributions are 34.7% and 24.8%, respectively [5][19]