为防止不可抗力因素导致的失联，欢迎大家加我的个人微信好友。 语音技术来自讯飞有声 前段时间美国财长贝森特预言中国经济即将崩溃，理由是中国房地产将硬着陆从而拖累经济崩溃。 那么贝森特预言会成为现实吗？ 今天就借着这个话题给大家认真聊一聊。 实事求是地说，目前中国经济确实存在很多问题，包括： 房地产持续下行； 地方债务巨大； 产能过剩，内卷严重； 出生率持续下降，社会老龄化加剧； 还有就是居民分配GDP占比较低，贫富分化问题也比较突出。 但是如果因为这些问题认为中国经济即将崩溃就大错特错了。 看人要看根本，判断一个经济体也要看基本面。 中国经济基本面是什么？ 对外：外贸顺差天下第一并且年年扩大，外汇储备天下第一，外加严格外汇管制； 对内：居民储蓄天下第一，国有资本天下第一，中央财政负债率全世界最低； 这么指标意味着什么？ 随便拎一个指标说一下。 比如我们居民存款，目前是160万亿，扣除居民贷款净存款就是接近80万亿，如此巨大的存款规模意味着什么？ 这些问题都存在，如果处理不好会拖累中国经济的持续增长，让普通老百姓体验感很差。 这些都是事实。 两个字：耐熬。 用大白话描述就是抵御经济波动的能力极强。 以房地产为例， ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Central Urban Work Conference points out a new direction for urban development. Special bond support areas may be further tilted towards urban renewal, green - low - carbon, safety - resilience, and smart governance. Urban investment enterprises can participate in urban renewal and smart city operations to accelerate market - oriented transformation [7][9]. - Jilin plans to issue 26 billion yuan of special bonds for small and medium - sized banks to support the establishment of a provincial rural commercial bank. In the future, more provinces may issue relevant bonds to support small and medium - sized banks and explore the feasibility of supporting other local small and medium - sized financial institutions [11]. - This week, the issuance and net financing of local government bonds and urban investment bonds both increased, with different trends in issuance costs and structures [16][20]. Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Central Urban Work Conference**: Held from July 14th to 15th, it emphasizes "five transformations" and "seven key tasks". Special bond support areas may be tilted towards urban renewal, etc., and urban investment enterprises can accelerate transformation [7][8][9]. - **Jilin's Special Bond Issuance**: Jilin plans to issue 26 billion yuan of special bonds for small and medium - sized banks on July 22nd. More provinces may follow suit to support small and medium - sized banks and explore supporting other local small and medium - sized financial institutions [11][12]. - **Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds**: 18 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 20 bonds with a total scale of 2.704 billion yuan [14][15]. - **Cancellation or Postponement of Urban Investment Bond Issuance**: No urban investment bonds were cancelled or postponed this week [16]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: 45 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 231.79 billion yuan, a net financing of 110.229 billion yuan. The issuance of new special bonds exceeded half of the annual quota. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose to 1.80%, and the spread widened to 10.35BP [16]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: 135 urban investment bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 88.943 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 3.301 billion yuan. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.13%, and the spread was 66.47BP. Four overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 4.467 billion yuan [20]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Funds and Credit Rating Adjustment**: The central bank net - withdrew 22.65 billion yuan this week. On July 9th, 2025, Zhongzheng Pengyuan downgraded the rating of "22 Shenshan Investment MTN001" of Guangdong Shenshan Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. from AAA to AA+ [23][24]. - **Trading Volume and Yield**: The trading volume of local government bonds was 390.614 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.89%. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 284.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.16%. The yields of both mostly increased [24]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: 18 urban investment entities had 22 abnormal bond trades, with an increase in the number of entities, bonds, and trades [25]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises 86 urban investment enterprises issued announcements on changes in senior management, legal representatives, etc., including changes in executives, legal representatives, directors, and supervisors; changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers; equity/asset transfers; changes in fund use; cumulative new borrowings; and external guarantees [29].