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新里程(002219):政策利空集中体现,各项业务有望逐步筑底回升
Capital Securities· 2025-09-04 09:21
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the negative impact of policy adjustments on the medical service industry is concentrated, but various business segments are expected to gradually stabilize and recover [3][5] - The company's medical service revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.378 billion yuan, down 14.84% year-on-year, but the gross margin for medical services increased by 0.99 percentage points, indicating stable profitability [5] - The report anticipates that the aging population will continue to drive demand for medical services, leading to a potential recovery in the company's medical service business [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.366 billion yuan, 3.649 billion yuan, and 3.946 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.4%, 8.4%, and 8.1% respectively [4][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 87 million yuan, 106 million yuan, and 140 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -24.3%, 21.6%, and 32.7% respectively [4][5] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 83.9, 68.9, and 52.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] Business Performance - The company's pharmaceutical and medical product revenue for the first half of 2025 was 208 million yuan, down 44.66% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement [5] - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical business may stabilize as the company increases its efforts in grassroots market development and expands its market coverage [5]