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十五五时期经济增速
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朱光耀:建议“十五五”时期保持4.5%—5%实际经济增速
Core Insights - The former Vice Minister of Finance, Zhu Guangyao, highlighted that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economy increased by 40 trillion yuan, marking a significant achievement [1] - Zhu emphasized that maintaining an economic growth rate of 4.5% to 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan will lay a solid foundation for China to achieve basic socialist modernization by 2035 [1] Economic Growth and Projections - Zhu noted that if China continues to grow at the projected rate, the GDP will exceed 200 trillion yuan and per capita GDP will surpass $20,000 by 2035 [3] - The current per capita GDP in China is projected to be $13,445 in 2024, with a GNI of $13,660, indicating a gap of $275 from the high-income economy standard [2] International Standards and Comparisons - The World Bank's classification of high-income economies is based on GNI rather than GDP, which includes income generated by citizens abroad [2] - The World Bank's high-income threshold was adjusted downwards from $14,005 to $13,935 due to the appreciation of the dollar and a decrease in global inflation [2] Development Goals and Strategies - Zhu suggested that the actual economic growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan should be between 4.5% and 5%, aligning with China's potential productivity [4] - The aim is to achieve nominal growth of 6.5% to 7% while maintaining inflation around 2%, and ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate [4] - The focus will be on high-quality development, leveraging opportunities in green development and digital economy, while upgrading traditional industries [4]