如何合理界定 "中等发达国家水平"? "十五五"规划建议提出 谋篇布局"十五五"·热点问答 到二〇三五年实现我国人均国内生产总值 达到中等发达国家水平 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 目前,国际上对中等发达国家没有明确定 义。大家普遍认为,应当按2020年提出 达到中等发达国家水平时的标准,将人均 GDP超过发达国家门槛(2万美元以上)、 实现2035年人均GDP比2020年翻一番 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 李金萍 深圳报道 二是推进包容性增长，不能只看平均数据而忽视贫富差距，内需（尤其是消费内需）不稳定也难以支撑 持续增长，未来十年要在过往脱贫成就基础上，让更多人共享发展成果，才能实现可持续增长。 三是完善社会保障，未来十年需推进与经济发展水平匹配的社保改革，重点是稳定提高占比55%的城乡 居民养老收入，确保这部分群体的收入能随国家发展同步提升，避免"中等发达国家"目标与民生福祉脱 节。 《21世纪》：你提到，"十五五"期间政府不再设定具体五年增长目标，而是更强调高质量发展。如何理 解中国经济的高质量发展？哪些领域会成为关键支撑？ 陆挺：在我看来，高质量发展不是"只重新经济、忽视老经济"，而是要兼顾"问题化解、产业自强与包 容性增长"，具体有三个关键支撑点。 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》） 全文公布。《建议》明确提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展指导方针，为做好未来五年经济社会发展工 作指明了前进方向。 如何看待"十四五"时期我国积累的经济优势？如何看待"十五五"时期我国面临的机遇和挑战？如何持续 高质量发展？如何大力提振消费？ ...

1 - 十周四峰 名词卡片 党的十八大以来，中国特色社会主义进入新时代，党不断丰富发展"两个一百年"奋斗目标。 中等发达国家水平 "到二〇三五年实现我国经济实力、 科技实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影 响力大幅跃升,人均国内生产总值达到 中等发达国家水平,人民生活更加幸福美 好,基本实现社会主义现代化。 "十五五"规划建议 释义 目前,国际上对中等发达国家没有明确定义。 大家普遍认为,应当按2020年提出达到中等发达国 家水平时的标准,将人均GDP超过发达国家门槛 (2万美元以上)、实现2035年人均GDP比2020年翻 一番(2020年不变价)作为达到中等发达国家水平的 衡量标准。 国家统计局数据显示，我国人均GDP从2020年 的10632美元提升至2024年的13445美元。 从三方面理解： 第一，"人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平"是基本实现社会主义现代化的重要标志。 文案：刘畅 设计：樊珊珊、王晔 党的十九大对实现第二个百年奋斗目标作出分两个阶段推进的战略安排，明确提出到2035年基本实现 社会主义现代化，这个战略安排把基本实现现代化的时间比原先"三步走"战略设想提前了15年。 党的十九届五中全 ...

Core Insights - The former Vice Minister of Finance, Zhu Guangyao, highlighted that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economy increased by 40 trillion yuan, marking a significant achievement [1] - Zhu emphasized that maintaining an economic growth rate of 4.5% to 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan will lay a solid foundation for China to achieve basic socialist modernization by 2035 [1] Economic Growth and Projections - Zhu noted that if China continues to grow at the projected rate, the GDP will exceed 200 trillion yuan and per capita GDP will surpass $20,000 by 2035 [3] - The current per capita GDP in China is projected to be $13,445 in 2024, with a GNI of $13,660, indicating a gap of $275 from the high-income economy standard [2] International Standards and Comparisons - The World Bank's classification of high-income economies is based on GNI rather than GDP, which includes income generated by citizens abroad [2] - The World Bank's high-income threshold was adjusted downwards from $14,005 to $13,935 due to the appreciation of the dollar and a decrease in global inflation [2] Development Goals and Strategies - Zhu suggested that the actual economic growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan should be between 4.5% and 5%, aligning with China's potential productivity [4] - The aim is to achieve nominal growth of 6.5% to 7% while maintaining inflation around 2%, and ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate [4] - The focus will be on high-quality development, leveraging opportunities in green development and digital economy, while upgrading traditional industries [4]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in China's economic, technological, defense, and international influence by 2035, with a target of reaching a per capita GDP equivalent to that of moderately developed countries, estimated to be around $20,000 [1][2] - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to exceed 130 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 134.9 trillion yuan, with a per capita GDP of $13,445, marking a continuous increase above $13,000 for two consecutive years [2] - Achieving the per capita GDP target requires a substantial increase in economic growth, with a projected annual nominal growth rate of 5% over the next decade to reach $23,000 by 2035 [2] Group 2 - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a crucial period for transitioning from the previous plan, with expectations of maintaining stable growth despite challenges such as aging population and declining total population [3] - The focus will shift from factor input-driven growth to enhancing total factor productivity, emphasizing the need for an efficiency revolution driven by "new quality productivity" to counteract demographic and international challenges [3] - China plans to upgrade key industries, estimating an additional market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years, while fostering emerging industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and hydrogen energy to become new growth points [4]

Economic Growth and Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive reforms without setting explicit economic growth targets, focusing instead on maintaining growth within a reasonable range [2][3] - The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be around 4.5% to 5.0%, ensuring a balance between steady growth, structural adjustments, and risk prevention [3][4] - By 2035, the goal is for China's per capita GDP to reach the level of middle-developed countries, which is generally considered to be around $20,000, indicating a significant increase from the current level of approximately $13,445 [3][4] Reform and Innovation - The plan identifies reform and innovation as fundamental drivers for overcoming systemic barriers and enhancing total factor productivity, which are crucial for achieving both qualitative and quantitative growth [6] - Key industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding are targeted for quality upgrades to enhance their global competitiveness, with an estimated market space increase of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [6][7] Emerging Industries and Investment Opportunities - The plan aims to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries like new energy and new materials, potentially creating several trillion-yuan market opportunities [7] - Investment in infrastructure, particularly in underground pipeline networks, is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, highlighting significant investment needs in the coming years [7]

10月28日发布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出：到2035 年"人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平"。 郭丽岩表示，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中 国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，这些 都是实现这一目标的底气和信心所在。 国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部第二研究室主任李承健认为，在未来发展不确定难预料因素增多的 情况下，需要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施积极有效的宏观调控，加快发展新质生产力，强化就业优 先政策，统筹利用好国内国际两个市场两种资源，促进主要经济指标运行在合理区间。 "要着力推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，充分释放经济增长潜力，努力从中等收入国家向 中等发达国家水平迈进。"中央财办分管日常工作的副主任韩文秀说。 (责任编辑：张紫祎) 人均国内生产总值(GDP)是衡量一个国家或地区经济发展水平和富裕程度的重要指标。"十四五"时期， 我国人均GDP从2020年的10632美元提升至2024年的13445美元，连续两年超过1.3万美元，位居中等偏 上收入国家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has crossed the 4000 mark, but there is still uncertainty about its future direction and stability [2][3] Market Performance - The stock market is expected to fluctuate around the 4000 level, with no strict control anticipated moving forward [3] - The market has shown signs of distrust, with some investors pulling back despite the recent milestone [2][3] Economic Context - The current economic situation remains challenging, particularly with consumer spending not meeting expectations, necessitating liquidity to stimulate activity [6] - The real estate market has seen a significant decline, with national housing prices dropping 36% over the past four years [5] Policy and Planning - Recent government proposals focus on addressing unreasonable restrictions in the housing market and promoting a new model for real estate development [4] - The upcoming five-year plan emphasizes economic construction as a priority, which will influence market narratives [8] Investor Sentiment - The market's core narrative is driven more by sentiment than by economic fundamentals, indicating a need for confidence to attract investment [8] - The expectation is that the market will stabilize around 4000, with potential for gradual increases, but volatility is a concern [7][8]

目标：2035年，达到中等发达国家水平。 ...

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025) has shown strong resilience in China's macroeconomic performance despite facing complex internal and external challenges, with nominal GDP expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan by the end of this period, an increase of over 35 trillion yuan compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4][5] - During the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP experienced an average annual real growth rate of 5.5% and a nominal growth rate of 6.9%, with the nominal GDP growth rate projected to be around 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 [3][5][6] - The economic growth achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" have laid a solid material foundation for modernizing the economy and have provided strong support for stabilizing employment and improving people's livelihoods [4][5] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030) is crucial for achieving the strategic vision of reaching a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, with a minimum nominal GDP average growth rate requirement of 5% [9][10][14] - The core guiding principle for economic growth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve a per capita GDP of 27,000 USD by 2035, reflecting a shift from focusing on total GDP growth to per capita income improvement [10][12][14] - To meet the 2035 target, the nominal GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" should ideally be around 6%, with a minimum requirement of 5%, depending on factors such as actual GDP growth, price levels, and exchange rate fluctuations [14][16][18] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" should consider setting clear economic growth targets to address demand insufficiency and promote supply-demand balance, which is essential for achieving full employment and improving living standards [19][20] - A comprehensive target system around nominal GDP growth should be established, including a core target of 5% nominal GDP growth and 4.8% real GDP growth, alongside specific goals for consumption and investment growth [21][22][23] - Policies should focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption and stabilizing infrastructure investment, to ensure necessary growth rates are met [23][25][26]