尹艳林表示，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有 变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰 显。"值得关注的是，我国国家综合创新能力排名已由2020年的第14位提升至2024年的第10位，这充分 说明我国科技发展速度快、潜力大。" (责任编辑：朱晓航) （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中国经济网北京1月4日讯（记者 何欣） "十五五"规划建议在2035年远景目标中，提出人均国内生 产总值（GDP）达到中等发达国家水平。全国政协委员尹艳林近日做客中国经济网《深谈》节目指出， 2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平是基本实现社会主义现代化的重要标志性指标，这要求"十五 五"时期经济社会发展保持适当速度。 至于中等发达国家人均GDP到底是何种水平？尹艳林表示："目前国际社会并没有明确界定 ...

他提到，2025年GDP的限价总量预计超过141.8万亿元，比2020年103.5万亿元增长了37%，2025年我国 人均GDP预计在1.43万美元左右，比2020年的1.04万美元增长37.5%。2035年基本实现社会主义现代化 目标一个核心指标就是人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，门槛是2万美元。 "今年如果人均GDP达到1.43万美元，离2万美元只有五六千美元。未来10年年均增长近4%，人均GDP 就可以达到2万美元以上。"马建堂说。 转自：北京日报客户端 中国公共关系协会20日在京主办的2025年度中国公共关系发展大会上，国务院发展研究中心原党组书记 马建堂表示，2025年全年经济社会发展的主要目标将顺利完成。他测算得出，未来10年人均国内生产总 值（GDP）年均增长近4%，就可以达到中等发达国家的水平。 马建堂说，今年全国两会制定的GDP增长目标是5%左右，前三季度国家统计局发布的GDP增速是一季 度5.4%、二季度5.2%、三季度4.8%。近两年四季度GDP占全年总量的比重都在27.8%，今年四季度GDP 增长4.5%以上，全年GDP增长就是5%或以上，如果增长4.8%到5.0%，全年就是5.1%稍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference's discussions on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and its focus on high-quality development, common prosperity, and security in the context of China's modernization efforts [1][6]. Group 1: High-Quality Development - The primary focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to promote high-quality development, aiming for decisive progress in achieving Chinese-style modernization [1][4]. - High-quality development is highlighted as a key theme throughout the plan, with specific goals and principles emphasizing its importance [1][4]. - The plan outlines practical paths for achieving high-quality economic and social development across eight sections [1]. Group 2: Common Prosperity - The plan underscores the principle of putting people first and aims to enhance the overall well-being of the population, with a focus on common prosperity as a fundamental goal [4][5]. - Specific targets for reducing income disparities among different regions and between urban and rural residents are set, aiming for a more equitable distribution of wealth [5]. - The plan emphasizes the need to balance efficiency and fairness in the socialist market economy to promote common prosperity [5]. Group 3: Security and Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes a strong emphasis on the integration of development and security, ensuring that modernization efforts are not disrupted by global changes or significant international events [6]. - It identifies the need to modernize the national security system and enhance the resilience of the economic and industrial systems [6]. - The plan addresses the challenges posed by changes in population structure and emphasizes the importance of stabilizing birth rates for long-term economic and social stability [6].

宏观周报 为什么是 5%？ 宏观经济观察系列（十一） 核心结论 一、我们认为 2026 年经济增长目标会定在 5%，明显高于《学习辅导百问》 中基于人口变化和翻番目标倒算出的"十五五"期间 4.17%平均增长要求。 我们认为，4.17%的年均增速是一个理论上的"底线要求"或"平均线"，考 虑到政策目标的连贯性、预留空间给宏观经济波动、产业迭代和再通胀要求， 5%会是 2026 年的经济增长目标。 二、中央经济工作会议前瞻与市场表现复盘。中央经济工作会议将系统部署 2026 年经济工作，2026 年又是"十五五"开局之年，我们认为会议取向将 兼顾短期和长期政策。我们有如下判断： 1、经济形势上，相比去年会议的判断可能略积极，但未来风险挑战仍存。 2、政策基调上，财政、货币政策会保持相对积极。我们预计 2026 年一般预 算赤字率维持 4%不变或略高；包括一般公共预算赤字、特别国债、新增地 方政府专项债券在内的新增政府债券融资规模可能提高至 12.8 万亿元左右； 货币政策保持适度宽松，基准判断是 2026 年降准降息一次左右。 3、结构政策方面，依然强调扩大内需、新质生产力。消费政策支持有望在 "以旧换新"等财 ...

Core Points - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that by 2035, China's per capita GDP should reach the level of middle-developed countries [2] - There is no clear international definition for middle-developed countries, but it is generally accepted that per capita GDP should exceed the threshold of developed countries (over $20,000) and double the per capita GDP from 2020 by 2035 [2] Summary by Categories - **Economic Goals** - The target for per capita GDP by 2035 is to achieve a level comparable to that of middle-developed countries [2] - The plan emphasizes the need for per capita GDP to exceed $20,000 and to double from 2020 levels by 2035 [2]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development over specific growth targets, focusing on sustainable economic growth and addressing social issues [1][4][10] Economic Development Goals - The goal of achieving "per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries" requires three core conditions: enhancing industrial value-added, promoting inclusive growth, and improving social security systems [3][4] High-Quality Development - High-quality development involves addressing historical issues in the "old economy," fostering self-reliance in key industries, and ensuring inclusive growth for all demographics [4][5][6] Key Economic Drivers - Consumption is identified as a critical variable for future economic growth, with government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending through subsidies and pension increases [6][7] Export Performance - Over the past five years, China's exports have seen an average annual growth rate of 8%, driven by a strong manufacturing sector and an increase in high-value-added products [8][9] Future Export Trends - Future export growth is expected to stabilize at 2%-4% annually due to high base effects and external economic pressures, indicating a shift towards low-speed, stable growth in foreign trade [10] Addressing "Involution" - To combat "involution," a collaborative approach involving market-driven mechanisms, industry associations, and government guidance is necessary to eliminate inefficiencies and promote healthy competition [11] Regional Development Focus - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is highlighted as a key region for high-quality development, with Shenzhen aiming to become a global financial center by leveraging its unique advantages [12][13]

Core Points - The article discusses China's goal to achieve a significant leap in economic, technological, defense, and overall national strength by 2035, with a specific focus on reaching a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Goals - By 2035, China's per capita GDP is expected to exceed $20,000, effectively doubling the 2020 figure of $10,632 [3][5]. - The National Bureau of Statistics projects that per capita GDP will rise from $10,632 in 2020 to $13,445 in 2024, indicating a steady growth trajectory towards the 2035 target [3]. Group 2: Strategic Framework - The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China outlined a two-phase strategy for achieving the second centenary goal, emphasizing the importance of reaching a per capita GDP level indicative of modernization [4]. - The 20th National Congress further clarified the overall development goals for 2035, with a strong emphasis on economic and technological advancements [4]. Group 3: Feasibility and Conditions - The article asserts that China has the conditions and capabilities to achieve the per capita GDP target, requiring an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.17% during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [6]. - The focus on high-quality development, reform, and innovation is highlighted as essential for overcoming obstacles to growth and realizing the GDP goals by 2035 [6].

Core Insights - The former Vice Minister of Finance, Zhu Guangyao, highlighted that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's economy increased by 40 trillion yuan, marking a significant achievement [1] - Zhu emphasized that maintaining an economic growth rate of 4.5% to 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan will lay a solid foundation for China to achieve basic socialist modernization by 2035 [1] Economic Growth and Projections - Zhu noted that if China continues to grow at the projected rate, the GDP will exceed 200 trillion yuan and per capita GDP will surpass $20,000 by 2035 [3] - The current per capita GDP in China is projected to be $13,445 in 2024, with a GNI of $13,660, indicating a gap of $275 from the high-income economy standard [2] International Standards and Comparisons - The World Bank's classification of high-income economies is based on GNI rather than GDP, which includes income generated by citizens abroad [2] - The World Bank's high-income threshold was adjusted downwards from $14,005 to $13,935 due to the appreciation of the dollar and a decrease in global inflation [2] Development Goals and Strategies - Zhu suggested that the actual economic growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan should be between 4.5% and 5%, aligning with China's potential productivity [4] - The aim is to achieve nominal growth of 6.5% to 7% while maintaining inflation around 2%, and ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate [4] - The focus will be on high-quality development, leveraging opportunities in green development and digital economy, while upgrading traditional industries [4]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in China's economic, technological, defense, and international influence by 2035, with a target of reaching a per capita GDP equivalent to that of moderately developed countries, estimated to be around $20,000 [1][2] - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to exceed 130 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 134.9 trillion yuan, with a per capita GDP of $13,445, marking a continuous increase above $13,000 for two consecutive years [2] - Achieving the per capita GDP target requires a substantial increase in economic growth, with a projected annual nominal growth rate of 5% over the next decade to reach $23,000 by 2035 [2] Group 2 - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a crucial period for transitioning from the previous plan, with expectations of maintaining stable growth despite challenges such as aging population and declining total population [3] - The focus will shift from factor input-driven growth to enhancing total factor productivity, emphasizing the need for an efficiency revolution driven by "new quality productivity" to counteract demographic and international challenges [3] - China plans to upgrade key industries, estimating an additional market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years, while fostering emerging industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and hydrogen energy to become new growth points [4]

Economic Growth and Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive reforms without setting explicit economic growth targets, focusing instead on maintaining growth within a reasonable range [2][3] - The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be around 4.5% to 5.0%, ensuring a balance between steady growth, structural adjustments, and risk prevention [3][4] - By 2035, the goal is for China's per capita GDP to reach the level of middle-developed countries, which is generally considered to be around $20,000, indicating a significant increase from the current level of approximately $13,445 [3][4] Reform and Innovation - The plan identifies reform and innovation as fundamental drivers for overcoming systemic barriers and enhancing total factor productivity, which are crucial for achieving both qualitative and quantitative growth [6] - Key industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding are targeted for quality upgrades to enhance their global competitiveness, with an estimated market space increase of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [6][7] Emerging Industries and Investment Opportunities - The plan aims to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries like new energy and new materials, potentially creating several trillion-yuan market opportunities [7] - Investment in infrastructure, particularly in underground pipeline networks, is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, highlighting significant investment needs in the coming years [7]