Workflow
半固态镁合金
icon
Search documents
星源卓镁(301398):半固态工艺先行者 镁合金应用趋势下受益链第一梯队
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 10:40
Core Insights - The company has been deeply involved in the magnesium alloy automotive parts sector for over a decade, achieving industry-leading product gross margins. It was established in 2003 and entered the magnesium alloy automotive parts field in 2014, currently serving notable clients such as Chery, Porsche, BMW, and Xpeng [1] - The company reported a revenue of 184 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 31 million yuan, down 15.2% year-on-year, primarily due to expense ratios and fixed asset depreciation [1] - The gross margin for magnesium alloy die-casting products is projected to be 33.77% in 2024, an increase of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year, significantly higher than comparable companies [1] Market Potential - The demand for lightweight materials is significantly driven by the dual carbon goals and concerns over the range of new energy vehicles. The economic and corrosion resistance issues that previously limited the development of magnesium alloys have been largely resolved [1] - The market size for magnesium alloys is estimated to reach 16 billion yuan by 2025, based on projected sales of 16 million new energy vehicles and an average magnesium usage of 25 kg per vehicle. In an optimistic scenario, the market could exceed 50 billion yuan by 2030, potentially surpassing 100 billion yuan when considering applications in the robotics market [1] Product Expansion and Financial Strategy - The company has been expanding its magnesium alloy product line, moving from small to medium and large products. By the first half of 2022, revenue from medium and large products accounted for 60.18% of total revenue, an increase of 7.46 percentage points since 2019 [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of the company's products is expected to reach 62.5 yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% from 2021 to 2024 [2] - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 450 million yuan for the construction of a project to produce 3 million sets of high-strength large magnesium alloy precision components annually. As of August 2025, the company has secured orders worth 1.363 billion yuan for magnesium alloy powertrain casings, with production expected to commence in 2026 [2] Technological Advancements - The company has been acquiring semi-solid magnesium alloy injection molding equipment since 2021, with five sets procured to date. A 6600T machine was delivered in July 2025, capable of a maximum theoretical injection weight of 38 kg [2] - The company has successfully completed mass production of various products, including display brackets and magnesium alloy electric drive casings, since 2022, indicating significant changes at the industrial level [2] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 590 million yuan, 1.077 billion yuan, and 1.519 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, 189 million yuan, and 282 million yuan respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.98 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 2.52 yuan per share for the same period [3] - The current market capitalization corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 55, 32, and 21 for 2025 to 2027 [3] - The company is recognized as a small but precise player in the magnesium alloy die-casting industry, with leading capabilities in semi-solid magnesium alloy product mass production and a robust order backlog, anticipating a harvest period in the automotive magnesium alloy business starting in 2026 [3]