公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 全球半导体行业迎来里程碑式的变革：开源指令集架构 (ISA) RISC-V 已于 2026 年 1 月正式占据全 球处理器市场 25% 的份额。这一里程碑标志着 x86 和 Arm 长期双寡头垄断格局的终结，开启了芯 片设计不再是专有技术垄断，而是全球共享资源的新时代。RISC-V 最初只是加州大学伯克利分校的 一个小众学术项目，如今已发展成为计算领域强大的"第三大支柱"，重塑着从超低功耗物联网传感器 到驱动下一代生成式智能的大型人工智能集群等方方面面。 达到 25% 的门槛不仅仅是一项统计上的胜利，它更代表着技术力量格局的根本性重塑。在全球"半导 体主权"倡议的推动下，各国和科技巨头纷纷转向 RISC-V 架构，以构建不受西方出口管制和不断上 涨的专有许可成本影响的本土技术栈。随着高通和 Meta Platforms 等行业领军企业进行重大战略收 购，RISC-V 架构已证明其能够在最高性能级别中占据一席之地，挑战着数据中心和蓬勃发展的 AI PC 市场中现有厂商的主导地位。 技术演进：从微控制器到人工智能引擎 RISC-V 的技术崛起得益于其模块化架构，该架 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor landscape has reached a historic turning point with the RISC-V architecture achieving a 25% market penetration, signaling the end of proprietary architecture monopolies and the rise of open-source hardware as a core pillar of next-generation computing [1][13]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Qualcomm's acquisition of Ventana Micro Systems for $2.4 billion and META's strategic acquisition of Rivos are pivotal moves towards a "no ARM" roadmap, allowing tech giants to control their chip destinies to meet the demands of generative AI and autonomous driving systems [1][3]. - The transition to RISC-V is seen as a key hedge against ongoing licensing disputes and rising ARM intellectual property costs, enabling Qualcomm to potentially become a major competitor to Intel in the server and personal computer markets [6]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - RISC-V's inherent modularity allows engineers to add custom instructions without licensing fees, contrasting with ARM's rigid licensing model, thus providing flexibility for companies like Qualcomm and META to develop tailored platforms [3]. - The integration of neural processing units (NPUs) directly into CPU pipelines in edge AI and IoT applications can reduce latency by up to 40%, showcasing RISC-V's advantages over traditional ARM designs [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The rise of RISC-V poses significant challenges to ARM Holdings, as its dominance in mobile and IoT markets is threatened by "free alternatives," forcing ARM to innovate rapidly in licensing terms and technical performance [7]. - The shift towards RISC-V-based custom chips by major companies like META, Google, and Amazon could diminish reliance on high-margin general-purpose GPUs, potentially saving billions in capital expenditures over the next five years [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context - RISC-V's emergence is intertwined with global geopolitical tensions, serving as a tool for countries seeking semiconductor independence amid trade restrictions and "chip wars," thus accelerating the restructuring of global supply chains [9]. - The demand for highly specialized, low-power chips in edge AI applications is driving RISC-V's growth, with projections indicating that total revenue from RISC-V intellectual property could reach $2 billion by 2031 [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Over the next 3-5 years, RISC-V is expected to penetrate high-performance computing (HPC) and server markets, with predictions suggesting it could capture over 30% of the data center chip market by 2031 [11]. - The industry is closely monitoring the potential for other major players like Microsoft or Amazon to follow suit in RISC-V acquisitions, which could further accelerate the transition [11].

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's cancellation of its $1 billion investment in an ATP factory in Spain highlights the challenges and shifting priorities in the European semiconductor landscape, reflecting a broader trend of reduced investment from major chip manufacturers in the region [3][4][5][19]. Investment Trends - Broadcom's decision to cancel the ATP factory project is indicative of a trend where leading chip manufacturers are revising and scaling back their investment plans in Europe [5]. - Intel has postponed its chip factory plans in Germany and other companies like Wolfspeed and ZF Friedrichshafen AG have also halted expansion plans in Germany [5]. - Despite setbacks, companies like TSMC and Infineon are still pursuing investments in Europe, with TSMC planning a chip design center in Munich and a $11 billion semiconductor manufacturing plant in Dresden [5]. European Semiconductor Strategy - The EU's ambitious Chip Act aims to double its global semiconductor market share to 20% by 2030, supported by over €43 billion in public and private funding [8][9]. - However, the European Court of Auditors has pointed out significant discrepancies in funding, with only about 5% of the announced total being directly managed by the EU Commission [10][12]. - The fragmented financial model has led to a lack of coordination among member states, making the EU's strategic goals difficult to achieve [12]. Spain's Semiconductor Initiatives - Spain launched the PERTE Chip project, a €12.25 billion public investment initiative aimed at enhancing its semiconductor value chain, primarily funded by EU pandemic recovery funds [15]. - While the project has made some progress in strengthening existing technological capabilities, it has struggled to attract large semiconductor manufacturing plants, with analysts describing the goal as "utopian" in the short term [16]. Geopolitical Influences - The failure of Broadcom's project in Spain underscores how external geopolitical factors, particularly U.S. trade policies, can disrupt European industrial initiatives [19]. - The U.S. CHIPS and Science Act has catalyzed over $500 billion in private investment domestically, creating a competitive environment for the EU's semiconductor ambitions [19]. North-South Investment Disparities - There is a clear north-south divide in European semiconductor investments, with capital-intensive projects predominantly flowing to established industrial centers in northern Europe, while southern Europe attracts smaller, targeted projects [21]. - Spain's experience illustrates the limitations of subsidy-driven industrial policies, as it has failed to secure major investments despite having one of the largest national subsidy funds in Europe [21][22].