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缅甸复产预期增强 沪锡继续回落【5月30日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 08:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of tight supply and seasonal demand weakness, with the main contract closing down 2.87% at 250,300 yuan/ton [1] - Short-term tin ore supply remains tight, but expectations for recovery are increasing as tin mines in Myanmar and Africa resume production [1] - The downstream sector is currently in a seasonal consumption lull, leading to a gradual shift towards a more relaxed fundamental outlook for tin [1] Group 2 - The supply situation in major production areas like Yunnan remains tight, and if raw material supply does not improve soon, some smelting companies may halt production for maintenance [1] - Market reactions to rumors about the resumption of production in the Wa region have been intense, but few companies have completed the payment for mining permits, indicating a cautious stance [1] - The strict border checks between China and Myanmar complicate the entry of large machinery and mining personnel, further delaying the expected recovery in production [1] Group 3 - After the May Day holiday, some downstream processing companies have gradually resumed operations, leading to a release of low-price replenishment demand, although high-price transactions remain weak [1] - Despite adjustments in U.S. tariffs supporting marginal consumption, actual export orders are still weakening on a month-on-month basis [1] - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth after last year's rapid expansion, which is directly impacting tin demand due to weak end-consumer consumption [1] Group 4 - Market sentiment has returned to rationality after initial emotional reactions, with concerns about rapid recovery of raw material supply alleviated due to slow progress in the Wa region [2] - The recent decline in market risk appetite has contributed to further downward pressure on tin prices, although prices are nearing the psychological support level for downstream buyers [2] - Attention is now focused on integer support levels as the downward trend in tin prices is expected to slow [2]