证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 [Table_Title] Alphamin 2025Q3 锡产销量分别环比增加 26%/12%至 5,190/5,143 吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►产量指引 公司预计在 2025Q4 将生产约 5,000 吨锡，加上年初至今 的 13,566 吨产量，将 2025 年的锡产量预期提高至 18,000 至 18,500 吨之间（之前为 17,500 吨）。 表 1：季度运营和财务摘要 ►2025Q3 生产经营业绩 2025Q3，矿石加工量为 221,581 吨，环比增加 32%，主要 系 2025Q2 受安全隐患导致的暂时停产以及自 2025 年 4 月 15 日起分阶段复工的影响。同比减少 3%。矿石品位为 3.09%， 上季度为 3.16%。 2025Q3，锡产量为 5,190 吨，环比增加 26%，同比增加 6%，与 5,000 吨的季度产量目标基本一致。加工厂继续保持良 好运行，本季度工厂整体回收率平均为 76%，上季度为 77%。 20 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-10-10 股期联动，铜价领涨基本金属 有⾊观点：股期联动，铜价领涨基本⾦属 有⾊与新材料团队 交易逻辑：美联储重启降息后，投资者对宏观面预期较为正面，国庆期间 宏观面相对平稳，节后有色股票和期货出现联动上涨。供需面来看，反向 开票问题使得废料供应收紧，再生金属冶炼减产风险加大，国庆前后铜锡 和锌等品种供应扰动不断；9月以来，终端消费略微偏弱，但相对平稳， 国庆期间基本金属供需表现稳定，远期供需预期将趋紧，这对金属价格有 支撑。中短期来看，供应扰动问题持续发酵和股期联动炒作引发部分品种 脉冲上涨，铜价领涨基本金属，但若无进一步的宏观利多，基本金属快速 冲高后仍需谨防回落风险，长期来看，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在， 并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，这将进一步推高基本 金属价格。 铜观点：供应端收缩逻辑继续发酵，铜价延续偏强⾛势。 氧化铝观点：基本⾯仍偏弱势，氧化铝价上⽅承压。 铝观点：宏观情绪提振，铝价震荡偏强。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑仍在，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锌观点：库存重回累积，锌价随有⾊反弹。 铅观点：供需趋 ...

西南期货指出，矿端方面仍旧偏紧，佤邦复产进度推进缓慢，预计大量产出时间延后，目前国内加工费 低位，冶炼厂亏损且原料库存进一步缩紧，开工率低于正常水平，进口方面印尼严打非法矿山，或影响 后续产出及出口，供应方面总体偏紧；需求端，锡下游消费市场呈现出"传统领域承压，新兴动能显 现"的复杂图景。整体需求虽未出现强劲反弹，但在人工智能和新能源等领域的结构性支撑下，仍展现 出一定韧性。供需偏紧下，精炼锡显性库存进一步去化，预计锡价或震荡偏强运行。 中辉期货表示，假期伦锡走强，印尼锡矿及生产出现扰动，海外供应担忧加剧，国内锡供应端存在检修 停产，终端消费存有支撑，锡价反弹走势。 10月9日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报280200.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及287780.00元，下方探低280180.00元，涨幅达3.07%附 近。 目前来看，沪锡行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪锡后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，宏观面，美联储纪要：多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜，少数人本来可 能支持9月不降息。基本面 ...

国庆假期期间，受海外流动性宽松预期提振，外盘风险资产走势普遍偏强，有色金属全面飘红。LME 锡冲高后有所回落，整体表现依旧强劲，节日期间累计涨幅2.95%。受外盘和相关品种带动，今日国内 沪锡大幅走高，主力合约收涨2.99%，报287090元/吨，刷新半年高位。锡矿供应偏紧，近期印尼严打非 法采矿加剧供应担忧，推动锡价走强。 国内方面，10月初云锡将结束检修恢复生产，大部分冶炼厂在假期内保持正常生产，同时缅甸矿运输也 逐渐恢复，整体供应有望小幅增加。需求方面：国庆节后，锡下游加工企业的生产开工率短期内预计仍 将保持平稳，但随着天气逐渐变冷，且圣诞节订单量未达往年水平，预计四季度下游加工厂的开工率将 保持稳定。 （文华综合） 对于后市，金源期货评论表示，美联储降息预期保持高位利好风险资产，同时印尼矿业部将采矿配额有 效期由三年缩短至一年，新规立即生效将有效控制锡矿供应，叠加此前印尼当局严打非法采矿，缅甸锡 矿复产缓慢，供应端扰动增加。同时LME库存再度回落且0-3结构频繁变动，流动性担忧仍有隐患，刺 激锡价。 印尼严厉打击非法采矿，主要是为了加强对本国锡产业管控，此次关停的非法矿点多为小型矿企，印尼 主要的锡冶 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：印尼影响锡价上涨 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：270000-285000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01-03 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-08 03-19 03-31 04-12 04-23 05-07 05-19 05-29 06-11 06-24 07-07 07-17 07-29 08-09 08-20 09-01 09-11 09-23 10-11 10-22 11-03 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-17 12-30 吨 全球锡总库存 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 01-02 01-14 01-26 ...

9月30日（周二），印尼锡出口商协会（Indonesia Tin Exporters Association）主席Harwendro Adityo Dewanto周二表示，该协会估计，该国今年精炼锡出口量 将自2024年的45,000吨增加至53,000吨左右。 该协会预计，一些私人锡冶炼厂复产将支持运输，这些冶炼厂在过去两年中因司法部对国有矿商Timah和其他公司的调查而停止运营。 "许多私人冶炼厂正在恢复生机，出口商也在恢复生机。" 国有矿商Timah本月早些时候表示，其对实现产量目标持乐观态度，因为政府整顿行动将有助于消除非法竞争。 （文华综合） LME期锡和沪锡价格飙升，此前该国总统普拉博沃·苏比安托下令关闭苏门答腊岛邦加-勿里洞省1,000个非法采矿点。 他称，"邦加-勿里洞省约80%的锡矿产量都是通过各种渠道被走私到国外的，途径包括小型船只和客运轮船等。" 他强调，所有走私通道现已全部封锁，"完 全没有退路，就连乘独木舟也走不通了。" Harwendro Adityo Dewanto称，"到目前为止，该国政府的整顿行动并没有扰乱生产活动。那些仍然有采矿配额的矿企继续努力完成配额，其他矿企已经在为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【宏观助力，锡价周中小幅走强】本周，沪锡主力期货合约价格小幅上升，达27.4万元每吨，现货升水 200元每吨。上期所库存小幅增加至7700吨附近，LME库存继续上升至2385吨。 进阶数据显示，锡进口 亏损稳定，40%锡矿加工费也保持稳定。产业基本面整体保持稳定。 锡价周中走强，主要得益于美联 储降息预期，推升了有色金属板块估值。短期看，投资者对美联储9月、10月利率决议预期较一致，货 币政策对锡价影响或降低。 9月，基本面供给偏紧格局难改，需求弱势暂未对价格产生较大影响。锡价 预计继续围绕27.4万元每吨震荡。 认为，锡价将保持稳定，周运行区间为27万 - 27.7万元每吨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and recent U.S. inflation data [1][2] - The main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 271,260 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.66% increase, although market sentiment cooled during the day [1] - Supply constraints persist, particularly from Myanmar, where mining activities are hindered by seasonal weather and transportation restrictions, leading to low import levels [1] Group 2 - Domestic refined tin supply is significantly impacted by annual maintenance from leading companies, although overall supply remains relatively loose with high inventory levels [2] - There is potential for marginal recovery in consumption, but the slow resumption of mining in Myanmar limits any significant increase in supply [2] - The macroeconomic environment appears supportive for tin prices, providing strong support for prices on the downside [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tin Company Limited reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by effective market strategies and resource management [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 21.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.35% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.062 billion yuan, up 32.76% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.303 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.55% [1] Market Position and Resource Advantage - Yunnan Tin holds a dominant position in the tin market, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% for tin metal in 2024 [1] - The company has the largest reserves of tin and indium resources globally, with 626,200 tons of tin and 4,821 tons of indium [2] - The tightening supply of tin resources globally is expected to support tin prices, highlighting the company's resource advantages [2] Production and Supply Chain Management - The self-sufficiency rates for tin concentrate, copper concentrate, and zinc concentrate are projected to be 30.21%, 15.91%, and 72.72% respectively for 2024 [2] - The company is enhancing its raw material procurement strategy by diversifying channels and optimizing mining operations to improve production efficiency [2] Technological Innovation - Yunnan Tin has developed advanced smelting technologies focused on efficiency, energy conservation, and environmental sustainability [3] - The company received a patent for its tin-containing material smelting system, showcasing its commitment to innovation and breaking foreign technology barriers [3] - The implementation of a digital infrastructure and a focus on high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing are key to the company's transformation and efficiency improvements [3]