Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a structural shift with rising prices and demand driven by AI and traditional sectors, while supply remains constrained due to resource depletion and geopolitical factors [2][4][54]. Group 1: Tin Market Overview - Since 2020, tin prices have increased, leading to improved industry profitability and a current PE ratio at the 21st percentile over the past five years [2]. - Tin is one of the most scarce non-ferrous metals, with a global static reserve-to-production ratio of only 16 years in 2024, indicating a tight supply situation [3][7]. - Major tin resources are concentrated in a few regions, with high development levels, and many supply areas have static reserve-to-production ratios below 22 years [4][7]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - AI-driven demand for computing infrastructure and smart devices, along with the electrification of vehicles, is expected to accelerate tin solder demand, projected to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2030 [3][12]. - Traditional demand is anticipated to benefit from global monetary easing and the increasing need for "strategic stockpiles" amid geopolitical tensions, with overall global tin demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% from 2024 to 2030 [3][13]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Key producing regions like China, Indonesia, and Myanmar face significant supply challenges, including declining reserves and frequent disruptions [4][28][38]. - China's tin reserves have decreased by 52% from 2001 to 2024, with a static reserve-to-production ratio dropping to 14 years [28][29]. - Indonesia's tin industry is grappling with resource depletion and regulatory changes that exacerbate supply disruptions, while Myanmar's production has been severely impacted by operational halts [38][45]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The tin price is expected to rise due to supply constraints and improving demand, with projections indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario from 2025 to 2030 [54][61]. - The global tin supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% from 2024 to 2030, while demand is expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.3% during the same period [61][63]. - The industry faces rising costs due to declining ore grades and inflationary pressures, which may further elevate the incentive prices for new projects [63][64].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for tin solder is expected to accelerate due to AI-driven computing infrastructure, innovation cycles in smart devices, and the electrification/intelligentization of automobiles, with a projected CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: Demand Drivers - The demand for tin solder is driven by AI advancements, smart device innovation, and the automotive sector's shift towards electrification and intelligence [2]. - Traditional demand is also expected to benefit from global fiscal and monetary policy easing, with a growing urgency for "safety stock" in the context of de-globalization, leading to a projected global tin demand CAGR of 4.3% from 2024 to 2030 [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Major tin-producing regions are facing resource constraints and frequent disruptions, with China's tin reserves and static reserve-to-production ratio declining due to insufficient prior exploration [3]. - Indonesia is experiencing multiple issues, including shrinking tin reserves, declining grades, and increased mining difficulties, compounded by frequent policy changes that exacerbate supply disruptions [3]. - Myanmar's previous extensive mining practices have led to significant declines in grade and output, with uncertainties surrounding the resumption of production in the Wa region [3]. - Other regions have projects mostly in early stages, and the supply elasticity of recycled tin is limited due to the miniaturization of solder [3]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Balance and Price Outlook - The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with projected supply-demand ratios for tin from 2025 to 2030 being -6%, -1%, +1%, +1.6%, +1%, and -0.3% respectively [4]. - The continuous decline in global tin ore grades is pushing up industry cost lines, alongside rising global inflation expectations and geopolitical risk premiums, which may elevate the incentive prices for potential global tin mining projects [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Since 2020, the central price of tin has increased, leading to overall improved industry profitability and valuation normalization, with the current industry PE at the 21st percentile of the past five years [5]. - The industry remains bullish on tin prices and valuation expansion, recommending a focus on companies like Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ) that have strong resource endowments and growth potential [5].

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 24 日 [Table_Title] TIMAH 2025Q3 锡金属产销量分别环比增加 6%、 12%至 3,985 吨、3,486 吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q3 产销情况 2025Q3，公司锡矿产量为 5,200 吨，同比增长 5%，环比 增长 37%。 2025Q3，来自陆上的锡矿产量为 2,099 吨，同比增长 25%，环比增长 161%。 2025Q3，来自海上的锡矿产量为 3,101 吨，同比下降 4%，环比增长 4%。 2025Q3，锡金属的产量为 3,985 吨，同比下降 16%，环比 增长 6%。 2025 前三季度，锡金属的平均销售价格为 33,596 美元/ 吨，较去年同期的 31,183 美元/吨上涨了 8%。 2025 年前三季度，公司国内精炼锡销量占比 7%，出口销 量占比 93%，前六大出口目的地分别为日本（19%）、新加坡 （19%）、韩国（18%）、荷兰（9%）、意大利（4%）和美 国（4%）。公司专注于出口市场 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：宏观拉动价格上涨，前高有压力 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：288000-295000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01-03 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-08 03-19 03-31 04-12 04-23 05-07 05-19 05-29 06-11 06-24 07-07 07-17 07-29 08-09 08-20 09-01 09-11 09-23 10-11 10-22 11-03 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-17 12-30 吨 全球锡总库存 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 ...

需求端，中长期增长动能更显强劲。五矿证券研报显示，相比传统服务器，AI服务器的单位耗锡量显 著提升，预计2025年至2030年全球AI服务器耗锡需求年均增速或高达44.5%。在锡矿新增供给有限的背 景下，AI与机器人产业、光伏、新能源车等领域的刚性需求，将为锡价提供长期支撑。 治理改革成为关键变量 尽管出口表现亮眼，但供应链透明度缺失、非法采矿猖獗、手工矿监管缺位等深层次治理难题，仍是制 约印尼锡业国际竞争力的主要瓶颈。业内共识明确：治理体系改革的成效，将直接决定印尼锡产业的长 远竞争力。 新华财经雅加达11月15日电（记者冯钰林）国际锡价回暖叠加国内产能恢复，共同推高印尼第三季度锡 出口。然而，深层治理顽疾依然制约着这个全球关键锡生产国的产业竞争力。近期数据与政策动向显 示，印尼锡产业正处于价格利好与治理重塑的关键调整窗口期。 价格回暖与供应释放促进复苏 印尼锡出口商协会（AETI）数据显示，今年1月至9月印尼累计出口精炼锡3.76万吨，达政府年度出口 配额的68%；第三季度印尼锡出口额增长25.8%，达到11.6亿美元。AETI主席阿迪蒂奥·德万托指出，国 际锡价持续走高是出口改善的主要动力。 9月底，印 ...

数据来源：印尼贸易部 印尼贸易部公布的数据显示，印尼10月出口2,643.05吨精炼锡，较去年同期减少53.89%，环比下降 46%。受印尼打击非法锡矿及6家被查封冶炼厂移交国企PT Timah的影响，10月印尼锡锭出口显著减 少。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has led to an expectation of tight supply and demand. However, due to the hawkish shift in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and tight liquidity, the Shanghai tin price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short term, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The Shanghai tin basis is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within the reasonable range. This is due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, leading to an expected tight supply, and a decline in the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad. However, with the hawkish shift in the Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, tight liquidity, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9]. - The LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and within the reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is because the manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US in October was weak, and the inventory of refined tin in the LME is increasing but still at a relatively low level. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin in the LME has increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has decreased compared to last week [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin ore has decreased, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic tin ore [19][20]. - The production (import) volume of domestic tin ore in November may increase month - on - month. Reasons include the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian president, the commissioning of the second concentrator of the Uis mine in Namibia, the resumption of mining in Wa State, Myanmar, the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in the DRC, and the suspension of the transit export of Myanmar tin ore through Thailand [22][24]. - The production volume of recycled tin in China in November may increase month - on - month [25][26]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat) compared to last week; the production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in November may increase (decrease) month - on - month [29]. - The import volume of refined tin in China in November may increase month - on - month. The export volume of refined tin from Indonesia is expected to increase, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports [30][32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in November [36]. - The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in November may decrease (increase) month - on - month [37][39]. - The production (import, export) volume of tin - plated sheets in China in November may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month [40]. - The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has decreased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect the demand for tin [42][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the easing of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations support tin prices. The expectation of future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, along with the initial agreement in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, suggest that the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may not change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to build long positions after price pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to high tin prices suppressing downstream demand with only rigid procurement. Given the Fed's future policies and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, investors are advised to focus on short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai tin basis. For LME tin, the positive (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are in a reasonable range, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - Shanghai tin basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range. LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is at the 50% quantile of the past five years [9][10]. - The inventory of refined tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin on the London Metal Exchange increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared to last week [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines. The production (import) volume of domestic tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [19][21][24]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in China increased compared to last week. The production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in October increased (decreased) month - on - month, and the import volume may increase month - on - month [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in October. The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in October may decrease (decrease) month - on - month [35][38]. - The production volume of tin - plated sheets in China in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China increased compared to last week [41][43][46].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Tin [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Author: Wang Wenhu [2] - Contact: 021 - 51801878 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The uncertainty of China - US tariff negotiations weighs on tin prices, but the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, along with the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is unlikely to change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be weak first and then strong. Investors are advised to mainly buy on price dips, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's future interest rate cut and halt of balance - sheet reduction expectations and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is below the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the Fed's expectations and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in LME, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10] - The inventory of refined tin in SHFE decreased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in LME increased compared with last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared with last week [12] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines [18][19] - The production (import) volume of Chinese tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. Factors include the resumption of mines in Myanmar, Indonesia's mine policies, and the situation in other countries [21][23] - The production volume of Chinese recycled tin in October increased month - on - month [24][25] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined tin increased compared with last week. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October increased (decreased) month - on - month [26][28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month due to the production plans of foreign mines and export forecasts [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production (import, export) volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [41][43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries increased compared with last week. As tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect tin demand [44][46]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a tight supply situation, but expectations for marginally looser supply in the long term are increasing due to the gradual resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines. Demand recovery is slow, leading to limited overall demand growth and continued price fluctuations in the tin market [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The domestic tin ore market remains relatively tight, with a slight decline in tin concentrate imports in September. Imports from Myanmar are increasing, while imports from other major producing countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo are decreasing but still within normal ranges [1]. - Tin processing fees are maintaining low levels, and the raw material inventory of major domestic tin smelting enterprises is generally below 30 days, indicating a tight supply situation [1]. - The increase in operating rates in Yunnan is primarily due to seasonal maintenance completion at large smelting plants, but the driving force for sustained recovery in operating rates remains insufficient due to ongoing tight raw material supply [1]. Group 2: Demand Trends - Recent declines in tin prices have led to increased willingness among downstream buyers to inquire and purchase, resulting in slight improvements in spot trading. However, overall consumption recovery remains limited, particularly in the home appliance sector [2]. - There has been a notable increase in domestic mobile phone shipments in July, indicating a recovery in demand in the mobile market, with consumer purchasing willingness strengthening. The release of new products may further boost electronic product order levels, contingent on improvements in terminal order levels [2]. - The overall performance of consumption is currently poor, with the recovery in the terminal market during the peak season not meeting expectations. International trade tensions are negatively impacting the semiconductor market [2].