今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2603暴涨，开盘价报382680元/吨，盘中最高报416790元/吨，最低 报382680元/吨，结算价报400860元/吨，收盘报416160元/吨，上涨29480元，涨幅7.62%；沪锡主力月 2603合约成交量173225手，持仓量18346手，较前一日减少2692手。今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金 属网获悉，2月25日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报402100元/吨-405100元/吨，均价报403600元/吨,较前一 日价格上涨16500元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报402750元/吨-404750元/吨，均价403750元/吨，较上一 交易日价格上涨16500元/吨。ccmn锡市分析：宏观面，今日锡价大幅拉涨，由海外宏观情绪回暖与国内 资金回流补仓双重驱动，叠加供给端突发收缩形成共振上涨。海外方面，美元指数高位震荡但未形成强 压制，美股科技与半导体板块走强提升工业金属风险偏好，资金由贵金属转向基本金属配置；美国 10% 全球临时关税正式生效抬升供应链成本，美联储鹰派表态延后降息预期，中东地缘紧张支撑大宗 商品估值，叠加亚洲制造业 PMI 回暖改善需求预期。国内层面 ...

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2603大涨，开盘价报378460元/吨，盘中最高报394970元/吨，最低 报378000元/吨，结算价报387890元/吨，收盘报394700元/吨，上涨12500元，涨幅3.27%；沪锡主力月 2603合约成交量257952手，持仓量31287手，较前一日减少920手。今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属 网获悉，2月11日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报386600元/吨-389600元/吨，均价报388100元/吨,较前一日 价格下跌1700元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报387250元/吨-389250元/吨，均价388250元/吨，较上一交 易日价格下跌1750元/吨。ccmn锡市分析：宏观面，今日适逢（南方小年）市场焦点齐聚，沪锡主连逆 势冲高逼近 39 万元 / 吨、伦锡同步走强创近期新高，成为小年最受关注的市场爆点；与此同时，美联 储官员表态明确利率或长期维持不变，弱化 3 月降息预期与市场形成分歧，叠加刚果金锡矿供应扰动、 伊朗与美国谈判后续及美国 API 原油库存暴增等地缘与能源因素，带动美元短期震荡回落、美股呈现 道指强纳指弱分化格局，国内则聚焦春节前央行流动 ...

今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2603大涨，开盘价报364480元/吨，盘中最高报385000元/吨，最低 报358130元/吨，结算价报369690元/吨，收盘报384180元/吨，上涨23810元，涨幅6.61%；沪锡主力月 2603合约成交量279732手，持仓量33625手，较前一日增加1447手。今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金 属网获悉，2月9日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报371100元/吨-374100元/吨，均价报372600元/吨,较前一日 价格上涨16000元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报371750元/吨-373750元/吨，均价372750元/吨，较上一交 易日价格上涨16000元/吨。 ccmn锡市分析：宏观面，沪锡期货日内涨幅超5%，跃升为节前金属市场的领涨龙头。此次锡价的强势 上行，是海外宏观情绪、国内产业政策与自身基本面三重逻辑共振的结果。海外方面，美元走弱降低了 计价成本，而美股科技股尤其AI算力板块的狂飙，直接强化了锡作为关键电子材料的长期需求预期； 国内层面，算力基础设施政策的推进与市场库存持续去化，共同营造了看涨氛围。在宏观宽松预期与产 业需求激增的驱动下，锡凭借其偏紧 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry for investment [8]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Renison's tin concentrate production reached 3,319 tons, a 46% increase quarter-on-quarter, while the annual production remained stable [1]. - The sales volume of tin concentrate in Q4 2025 was 3,375 tons, reflecting a 52% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The average selling price of tin in Q4 2025 was A$58,086 per ton, up 12% from the previous quarter and 24% year-on-year [3]. - The estimated revenue for Q4 2025 was A$193 million, a 63% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 23% increase year-on-year [5]. - The estimated EBITDA for Q4 2025 was A$112.5 million, representing a 129% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 40% increase year-on-year [6]. - The net cash inflow for Q4 2025 was A$92.16 million, a 208% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 57% increase year-on-year [7]. Production and Cost Analysis - The estimated C1 cash production cost for Q4 2025 was A$16,598 per ton, down 28% quarter-on-quarter and up 2% year-on-year [4]. - The All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) for Q4 2025 was A$27,906 per ton, down 23% quarter-on-quarter and up 1% year-on-year [4]. - The total capital expenditure for Q4 2025 was A$19.54 million, slightly down from A$19.84 million in Q3 2025 [9]. Cash Management and Investments - As of the end of Q4 2025, cash and cash equivalents increased by A$14.1 million to A$293.6 million [10]. - Metals X's receivables from tin amounted to A$29.21 million, with an implied inventory value of A$40.13 million [11]. - The company continues to evaluate potential acquisition projects, focusing primarily on tin mines [14]. Project Updates - The Rentails project team has completed the draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and plans to submit it to the Tasmanian EPA by the end of the month [12]. - The front-end engineering design (FEED) for the processing plant is expected to be completed by Q3 2026 [13].

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 5 日 [Table_Title] 2025Q4 Renison 锡精矿产量环比增长 46%至 3,319 吨，锡 AISC 环比下跌 23%至 27,906 澳元/吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q4 生产经营情况（Metals X 持有 Renison 50%股份， 除非有特殊说明，均为 100%基准） 1）产量 2025Q4 Renison 锡精矿总产量达 3,319 吨，环比增长 46%，同比几乎持平。Metals X 2025Q4 权益产量为 1660 吨锡 精矿。2025 年 12 月锡产量达到 1,318 吨，创下月度最高纪 录，这得益于矿石品位的提高、工厂稳定性的改善以及冶金性 能的增强。 2）销量 2025Q4 Renison 锡精矿出货量为 3,375 吨，环比增长 52%。Metals X 接收了本季度出货量的 50.16%（2025Q3： 52.09%）。 3）售价 2025Q4 锡销售价格为 58,086 澳元/吨，环比上涨 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical risk easing in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and a reversal in supply-demand expectations, leading to a bearish market sentiment [1][2][6] Macroeconomic Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar and a sharp decline in US tech stocks have created a risk-off sentiment in industrial commodities, directly impacting tin prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook has dampened expectations for a rate cut, further pressuring metal prices [1] Geopolitical Situation - A ceasefire agreement in the Democratic Republic of Congo has reduced concerns over supply disruptions from the Bisie mine, which accounts for 6% of global tin supply, leading to a rapid decline in tin price premiums previously driven by geopolitical tensions [2] Supply Side Dynamics - Global tin supply expectations for 2026 are improving, with increased export quotas from Indonesia and faster-than-expected resumption of mining in Myanmar, contributing to a narrowing supply gap compared to 2025 [2] - Domestic production of refined and recycled tin is stabilizing, while expansion projects in Australia and Peru are expected to add to global supply [2] Demand Side Dynamics - Short-term demand for tin is weak due to high prices and seasonal factors, with traditional sectors like electronics and real estate showing reduced orders [3] - Emerging sectors such as AI servers and renewable energy have long-term growth potential, but current demand has not yet materialized into actual orders [3] Industry Chain Status - The global tin industry is characterized by tight upstream raw material supply, stable midstream processing, and pressured downstream consumption, with rising costs due to declining ore grades [3] - Inventory accumulation is becoming a significant factor in price volatility, as downstream sectors face low operating rates and squeezed profits [3] Leading Companies - Major tin companies are experiencing significant revenue growth, with plans for green transformation and high-end product development to secure their market positions [4] - Companies are strategically positioning themselves for future demand in emerging sectors, enhancing their competitive edge [4] Current Market Activity - The recent price drop has led to a cautious trading atmosphere, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach and sellers reducing prices to stimulate sales [4] - Actual trading volumes have significantly decreased, with many downstream companies halting procurement plans amid expectations of further price declines [4] Short-term Price Forecast - Tin prices are expected to enter a phase of high volatility, with 360,000 yuan per ton identified as a critical support level [5] - In the short term, prices may face downward pressure, but medium to long-term fundamentals suggest potential for a rebound as supply-demand dynamics remain tight [5] Key Variables for Future Price Movements - Future tin price trends will depend on four key variables: US Federal Reserve policy, resumption of mining in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, post-holiday recovery in domestic demand, and actual order fulfillment in emerging sectors [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call discusses the impact of Indonesia's resource nationalism on coal, metals, and agriculture sectors, particularly focusing on aluminum, nickel, coal, and palm oil [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Resource Nationalism in Indonesia**: Indonesia is strengthening control over its resources through measures such as reducing export quotas and combating illegal mining to address economic pressures and enhance resource prices [1][2][4]. - **Coal Supply Impact**: Indonesia's reduction of coal export quotas is expected to significantly affect global coal supply, especially for China, potentially leading to tighter domestic supply and price fluctuations between 800 to 1,000 RMB [1][8][6]. - **Palm Oil Market Dynamics**: The acceleration of state control over the palm oil industry, combined with environmental sanctions and U.S. biofuel policies, is anticipated to drive a bull market in palm oil, with prices gradually increasing [1][10][11]. - **Nickel Price and Supply Adjustments**: A decline in nickel prices has led to losses in nickel smelting capacity, prompting the government to reduce nickel ore quotas by approximately 40% in 2026, which may reverse supply-demand dynamics and support price increases [1][13][14]. - **Tin Market Conditions**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand tightness, with significant contributions from China and Indonesia, and instability in regions like Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo affecting prices [1][18][20]. Additional Important Content - **Government Policies**: Indonesia's government has implemented policies to combat illegal mining and reduce resource quotas, transitioning from multi-year to annual quota agreements, indicating a strong shift towards resource nationalism [4][5]. - **Investor Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high spot ratios that can benefit from price increases, such as Liu'an Huanneng and Jin Kong Coal, which are seen as having significant upside potential [9][17]. - **Long-term Nickel Supply Concerns**: The long-term outlook for high-grade nickel resources is challenging, with expectations of depletion by 2035, necessitating solutions to address the shortage [16]. - **Tin Demand Resilience**: Despite potential price increases, the demand for tin, primarily in the electronics sector, is expected to remain stable, indicating a positive outlook for price growth [21][22]. Company-Specific Insights - **Zanyu Technology**: The company has a competitive advantage due to its refinery in Indonesia, allowing it to produce refined products without export taxes, thus benefiting from rising palm oil prices [12]. - **Tin Industry Leaders**: Recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous, both of which are positioned well in the current market environment and are expected to provide significant investment value [22][24].

今日长江现货 1# 锡报 391750-393750 元 / 吨，均价 392750 元 / 吨，单日暴跌 31000 元，沪锡主力合约 同步触及 11% 跌停线，成为当日大宗商品市场领跌品种。本次锡价急速下跌并非基本面反转，而是宏 观层面美元美股双压引发的大宗商品抛售潮，叠加节前需求真空、资金避险情绪升温，刚果金地缘扰动 带来的资源供应链风险发酵进一步加剧市场波动，短期情绪主导下锡市迎来阶段性深度调整。 【宏观暴击：美元美股双压引爆锡价跌停潮】 锡价暴跌的核心驱动力来自全球宏观市场的避险风暴。美元指数走强与美股科技板块下行形成双压格 局，触发大宗商品全品类抛售，高估值的锡首当其冲。美联储鹰派预期升温，降息概率骤降，推动美元 资产走强，直接压制以美元计价的锡价。同时，国内节前资金回笼需求旺盛，市场流动性收紧，投资者 落袋为安情绪弥漫，内外宏观因素共振导致锡价急速下跌。 锡产业链各环节在节前均呈现疲态共振。矿端品位下降推高开采成本，冶炼端挺价意愿减弱，加工与下 游企业因低库存和假期模式而采购停滞。全链弱势格局放大市场悲观情绪，尽管产业升级与新兴需求中 长期前景看好，但短期弱势显著压制现货价格。 【龙头动向：20 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, Yunnan's import and export volume with ASEAN reached 132.08 billion yuan, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 20.8% [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Yunnan's total import and export volume reached 1.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 40.8% compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - Yunnan's trade partners have expanded to 193 countries and regions, with 146 of them experiencing growth in import and export activities [1] Trade Performance - In 2025, Yunnan's total goods trade import and export volume was 273.74 billion yuan, growing by 10.2%, which is 6.4 percentage points faster than the national average [1] - The import and export volume with Belt and Road countries was 235.86 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.1% [1] - Trade with the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa saw significant increases of 3.7%, 51.1%, and 75.6% respectively, collectively accounting for 33.4% of Yunnan's total import and export value [1] Cross-Border Trade Developments - The cross-border freight volume on the China-Laos Railway increased by 13.9%, with the value growing by 42.9% [1] - Yunnan has implemented a pilot project for the smart import of Lao cement at the first land port in the country [1] - Nine new categories of high-quality agricultural and food products from neighboring countries have been approved for import [1] Agricultural Exports - Yunnan has taken the lead in batch inspection and quarantine reforms in the country, with agricultural exports reaching 19.79 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for 21% of total exports [2] - The export scale of fresh-cut flowers and coffee ranks first in the country, while vegetables and fruits rank third [2] - Exports of "new three items" such as photovoltaic products and lithium batteries reached 3.35 billion yuan, increasing by 140% [2] - Tin ingot exports also saw a significant rise to 5.04 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 140% [2]