| ITG国贸期货 | 将容盗句业各咨格,证监许可【2012 家信 | 日常策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026/01 | | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 昨日商业航天、芯片等题材板块调整,股指冲高后回调,市场成 | 交量维持高位。股指放量突破后,短期震荡调整后或延续上行格 | 股指 | | 六刘守副 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 震荡 | 国债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | | | | 近期市场情绪好转,叠加矿端仍偏紧,铜价有望维持偏强运行。 | 有多 | Fill | 近期产业驱动有限,但电解铝供应端受限,叠加宏观情绪好转, | 看多 | 价格有望偏强运行。 | | | 氧化铝供应端仍有较大释放空间,产业面偏弱施压价格,但当前 | 震荡 | 氧化铝 | 价格基本处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。 | 锌基本面成本中枢趋稳,库存压力显现,当前价格基本面支撑不 | | | | 足,近期宏观情绪较好,锌价补涨,然考虑 ...

有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | 品 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜伦铜冲高回落，国内宽幅震荡，国内精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 12 | 月 | | | CPI 同比增长 2.7%，持平预期和前值；核心 CPI 同比增长 2.6%，持平前值，略低于预 | | | | 期的 2.7%。美核心通胀水平较预期放缓，这也为后序美联储降息造势，但从 1 月降息 | | | | 概率来看维持不变的概率仍较大。国内方面，光伏电池等产品出口退税调整，或导致国 | | | | 内一季度存在抢出口动作。库存方面，LME 库存增加 4325 吨至 141550 吨；Comex | 库 | | 铜 | 存增加 8215 吨至 480356 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 5505 吨至 122127 吨，BC 铜增加 4882 | | | | 吨至 5935 吨。需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主， | | | | 另外进口亏损扩大，出口窗口逐渐打开，或有利于一季度出口需求。贵金属乐观情 ...

国际银价首次站上90美元，市值突破5万亿美元，超英伟达成全球第二大资产！黄金32万亿美元市值位居榜首！还能涨吗？ 每经编辑|杜宇 1月14日，国际白银现货价格首次突破每盎司90美元，再创历史新高。今年以来，白银价格已上涨25%。 图片来源：每经媒资库 截至1月14日发稿，现货白银报89.70美元/盎司，涨3.21%。 沪银涨超7%。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 值得注意的是，受银价提振，白银总市值首次站上5万亿美元大关，已超越英伟达成为全球第二大资产。根据市值数据平台CompaniesMarketCap的数据，目 前白银市值为5.039万亿美元；黄金以32.162万亿美元的市值位居榜首，芯片巨头英伟达以4.523万亿美元的市值滑落至第三。前十名榜单如下： 截至发稿，现货黄金报4623.36美元/盎司。 | Rank + | Name | | � Market Cap | ﺟ Price | � Today . | Price (30 days) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | Gold G ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）锡价一度涨近6%至52，495美元，超越2022年创下的前高位。这种用于焊接的 金属长期以来被视为衡量计算机行业景气度的一个风向标，对人工智能和数据中心的强劲投资也使得大 量资金涌入锡市场。 在LME六种主要金属中流动性最差的锡去年上涨近40%，2026年迄今涨幅已超过25%。此轮飙升源于中 国投资者涌入金属市场以及股票基金押注今年大宗商品期货将随股市走高。交易员正关注第二大锡生产 国印尼的供应情况，此前该国军方主导打击了印尼主要锡产区的非法采矿活动。 伦敦锡价飙升至每吨52，000美元以上创新高，延续三年来的牛市行情，投资者的疯狂买盘推动金属市 场节节攀升。 伦敦锡价飙升至每吨52，000美元以上创新高，延续三年来的牛市行情，投资者的疯狂买盘推动金属市 场节节攀升。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）锡价一度涨近6%至52，495美元，超越2022年创下的前高位。这种用于焊接的 金属长期以来被视为衡量计算机行业景气度的一个风向标，对人工智能和数据中心的强劲投资也使得大 量资金涌入锡市场。 在LME六种主要金属中流动性最差的锡去年上涨近40%，2026年迄今涨幅已超过25%。此轮飙升源于中 国投 ...

全球大宗商品交易员们正密切关注印尼市场的锡供应情况，印尼是全球第二大锡生产国，近期该国对非 法采矿的军方打击已经开始严重影响主要锡产区的供应。11月的出口几乎增长了三倍，但尚不清楚这种 反弹是否能持续，特别是印尼政府今年仍未批准采矿配额。 目前锡市场没有表现出类似白银和铜那样的供应极度紧张的迹象，伦敦金属交易所的锡库存已上升至11 个月以来的最高水平。该工业金属的期货价格也显著高于现货价格，形成了市场结构中的所谓"远期溢 价"，这一趋势通常表明工业金属供应仍然充足。在周三亚盘交易时间段，除了锡价上涨，LME铜、铝 和锌价格也有所上涨。 （原标题：?全球金属狂热停不下来!"神铜"疯完轮到"狂锡" LME锡价突破5.1万美元创历史新高） 智通财经APP获悉，LME(伦敦金属交易所)锡工业金属交易价格在伦敦市场突破每吨51,000美元重大关 口，延续了这一轮长达三年的LME锡价牛市走势。随着中国投资者们疯狂买入，包括锡在内的全球金 属市场在2026年强势延续2025年末的如虹般强劲涨势。 在周三，LME锡价上涨幅度一度高达4.3%，达到 51,675 美元/吨，超越了于2022年创下的上一个纪录， 当时LME锡价暴 ...

今年以来，白银价格在9个交易日内已涨超25%。中辉期货在最新研报中表示，建议对白银"长 期持有"，认为短期彭博指数调仓结束、避险、交割逻辑、资源品紧张预期持续。长期降息、 供需缺口连续5年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 白银价格延续去年走势，继续"高歌猛进"。 1月14日，现货白银开盘强势拉升，盘中一度涨3.55%，首次站上90美元关口，再创历史新 高。 受银价提振，白银总市值首次站上5万亿美元大关，已超越英伟达成为全球第二大资产。根据 市值数据平台CompaniesMarketCap的数据，目前白银市值为5.039万亿美元；黄金以32.162万 亿美元的市值位居榜首，芯片巨头英伟达以4.523万亿美元的市值滑落至第三。前十名榜单如 下： | | | | Top Assets by Market Cap | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | All assets, including public companies, precious metals, cryptocurre ...

广发期货 = PP | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 锡 | 合約 SN2603 | 观点 農荡偏强 | | | | 塑料 | 12605 | 農荡偏强 | | | | 焦煤 | J2605 | 農荡偏强 | | | | 豆粕 | M2605 | 偏弱调整 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 【全品种日评】 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2603 | | A股持续放量上行后冲高回落,成交高位运行,回 | | | 股指 | IH2603 | 股指冲高回落,科技板块集体回调 | 调幅度或有限。建议做好组合风险控制,避免重仓 | | | | IC2603 | | 追高,择机配置前期涨幅稍弱的IH。中小盘指数以 | | | | IM2603 | | 牛市价差为主,注意防控过大波动带来的风险。 | | | | | | 债市经过前期调整,整体市场交易盘久期已经压至 | | | | | | 较低状态,长债抛压有所缓解,超长端近两个交易 | | | | T2603 | | 日表现为超跌反弹。往后看,经济开门红成色未明 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Tin has been a crucial material throughout human history, from the Bronze Age to modern technology, and is now essential in various industries, including electronics, food packaging, and green energy [1] Macro and Sentiment - External factors such as lower-than-expected U.S. core CPI have strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting overall metal valuations; the approval of NVIDIA's sales of H200 chips to China has boosted demand expectations in the AI chip sector [2] - Domestic monetary policy remains loose, and policies like "trade-in" for consumer goods indirectly stimulate downstream solder demand for tin [3] Geopolitical and Supply Factors - The escalation of conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a key source of tin imports for China, has raised concerns about supply stability, contributing to a significant price increase; ongoing supply tightness and low global visible inventories further exacerbate the situation [4] Demand and Structure - Emerging sectors such as AI and photovoltaics are driving significant demand; NVIDIA's high-end chip delivery expectations are increasing demand for high-grade solder, while the expansion of photovoltaic production capacity is raising solder consumption [5] Industry Chain and Leaders - Profit margins are shifting towards upstream resources due to tight supply, putting pressure on smelting companies; industry leader Yunnan Tin Company has seen a 35.99% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, closely tied to tin prices and deepening supply chain cooperation with leading AI and new energy firms [6] Market Outlook - The strong price trend for tin is expected to continue in the short term, with London tin prices targeting $50,000 per ton; domestic prices may also break through 410,000 yuan, supported by liquidity expectations, historically low inventories, and structural growth in emerging demands [7] - Potential risks include the stabilization of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo or unexpected recovery in Myanmar's supply, which could lead to temporary price corrections, but the long-term supply-demand gap is likely to support a systemic price increase [8]

Group 1: Copper Market - The rebound of the US dollar and geopolitical tensions have increased safe-haven demand, leading to a slight decline of 0.12% in overnight London copper prices. However, favorable fiscal policies in China and the explosive growth in emerging industries like AI are expected to boost copper demand, indicating a potential rise in domestic copper prices today [1]. Group 2: Aluminum Market - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising oil prices have driven a 0.16% increase in overnight London aluminum prices. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is unlikely to increase, and the surge in demand from the new energy sector is expected to further support aluminum prices, suggesting a potential rise in domestic aluminum prices today [1]. Group 3: Zinc Market - The decline in US stocks and the strengthening of the US dollar have pressured the zinc market, resulting in a 0.36% drop in overnight London zinc prices. Despite weak supply and demand in the domestic zinc market, the rise in surrounding commodities, low processing fees, and supportive policies are expected to lead to a potential increase in domestic zinc prices today [1]. Group 4: Lead Market - Positive macroeconomic sentiment and tight supply-demand dynamics have supported lead prices, with overnight London lead prices rising by 0.34%. Seasonal maintenance and winter breaks are constraining supply, while strong demand is expected to support lead prices, indicating a potential slight increase in domestic lead prices today [1]. Group 5: Tin Market - The lower-than-expected US core CPI has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to a 1.96% increase in overnight London tin prices. The escalation of conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has raised risk premiums, and the surge in tin usage for new energy and AI chip packaging is expected to drive domestic tin prices up today [1]. Group 6: Nickel Market - The rebound of the US dollar and profit-taking by bulls have led to a 2.63% decline in overnight London nickel prices. The market is gradually digesting Indonesia's production cut plans, and while there is still an oversupply in the industry chain, spot purchases at lower prices are expected to lead to a slight increase in domestic nickel prices today [1].

乳目技 周敏波 Z0015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 102510 | 103235 | -725.00 | -0.70% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 0.00 | | 元/肥 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 102155 | 103165 | -1010.00 | -0.98% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 20 | 5 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 102395 | 103110 | -715.00 | -0.69% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -55 | -65 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 50ae | 5537 | -440.71 | -7.96% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 64.31 | 41.94 | +22.37 | - | 美元/肥 | | 进口盈 ...