Workflow
单一行政官理论
icon
Search documents
特朗普2.0执政周年复盘与展望
HTSC· 2026-01-27 04:25
Domestic Policy - Trump's administration has focused on addressing the cost of living crisis as the main economic policy for the second year, with measures including housing policy, pressure on tech giants for upfront payments, and price controls on credit card rates[8] - The administration has proposed a total of 102 deregulatory policies, with 46 already in effect, showing a significant increase in deregulation compared to the first term[30] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to add $4.1 trillion to the national deficit over the next decade, raising the net debt-to-GDP ratio from 97% to an estimated 127% by 2034[33] Economic Performance - The U.S. economy has shown resilience, with projected GDP growth for 2026 expected to exceed 2.6%, driven by fiscal expansion and a reduction in tariff impacts[6] - Despite the resilience in economic data, public sentiment regarding the economy has worsened, with consumer confidence at its lowest since 1952[11] - Inflation remains controlled, with a slight decrease expected in 2025, although certain goods like coffee and electricity have seen significant price increases[26] Trade and Tariffs - Tariff rates have fluctuated, with the weighted average tariff rate increasing by approximately 9 percentage points to around 11% since Trump's inauguration, which is lower than theoretical expectations[10] - Trade agreements have been established with various countries, including a commitment from Taiwan to invest $250 billion in the U.S. tech sector[16] - The trade deficit has not significantly decreased despite tariff implementations, indicating a restructuring of import sources rather than a reduction in the deficit itself[26] Immigration Policy - The administration has aggressively pursued immigration control, with illegal border encounters dropping from 180,000 per month during the Biden administration to 11,000 per month under Trump[21] - The net number of illegal immigrants has decreased, with a reported net decline of 89,000 by July 2025, and projections for 2026 showing a drop in net immigration from 1.56 million to 570,000[27][19] Political Landscape - Trump's approval ratings are among the lowest for any president in the last 50 years, with significant dissatisfaction regarding inflation, taxes, and employment[11] - The midterm elections are expected to constrain Trump's policy agenda, with predictions indicating potential losses for the Republican Party in the House of Representatives[11]