卖出虚值看跌期权
Search documents
甲醇日评20251113:低估值,弱驱动-20251113
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 03:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are low, so short - selling is not recommended from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive is limited due to factors such as the less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran leading to high imports and high inventory pressure at ports, and the high raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises resulting in insufficient downstream restocking motivation. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the gas - restriction expectation of inland gas - to - methanol production, and the rising option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: MA01 closed at 2108 yuan/ton on 2025/11/12, up 26 yuan/ton (1.25%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2211 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.77%); MA09 closed at 2233 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.68%) [1] - Spot prices: In regions like Taicang, the price was 2070 yuan/ton on 2025/11/12, up 12.5 yuan/ton (0.61%); in Shandong, it remained unchanged at 2187.5 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was stable at 2075 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, it rose 5 yuan/ton (0.26%) to 1945 yuan/ton; in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, prices remained unchanged [1] - Price differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 38 yuan/ton on 2025/11/12, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Datong Q5500 remained at 702.5 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 decreased 5 yuan/ton (- 0.73%) to 680 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, prices remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 100.3 yuan/ton; natural gas - to - methanol profit decreased 30 yuan/ton (- 2.34%) to - 1310 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit remained at 41.2 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased 66 yuan/ton (- 14.00%) to - 537.57 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased 11.81 yuan/ton (- 2.68%) to 428.72 yuan/ton; MTBE profit increased 20 yuan/ton (5.82%) to 363.68 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit remained at - 265.6 yuan/ton [1] 4. Information - Domestic information: The main methanol contract MA2601 stopped falling and rebounded, opening at 2084 yuan/ton, closing at 2108 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1032752 lots and open interest of 1407320, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: In a Middle - Eastern country, 11 methanol plants maintained their existing load, with an average operating load of 75.82%. As of the previous day, the total methanol loading volume was 27.5 tons, and the loading speed was relatively slow. Attention should be paid to future natural gas supply and local plant operation [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]