Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already relatively low, so it is not recommended to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. However, the short - term upward drive for methanol is limited. It is mainly restricted by two factors: Iran's winter gas restrictions are less than expected, imports may remain high, and port inventory pressure is difficult to reduce; the current raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises is about 710,000 tons, which is relatively high in the past five years, and the downstream restocking power is temporarily insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Price and Related Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On November 13, 2025, MA01 was 2,103 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day; MA05 was 2,208 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.14%; MA09 was 2,231 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.09% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Spot prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged on November 13, 2025 compared to the previous day. The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 35.50 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 coal remained at 610 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 coal was 700 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan or 0.36%, and Yulin Q6000 coal remained at 680 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: As of November 13, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol remained at 100.30 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained at - 1,310 yuan/ton, the profit of Northwest MTO remained at 41.20 yuan/ton, the profit of East China MTO was - 561.07 yuan/ton, down 23.50 yuan or 4.37%. The profit of acetic acid was 423.22 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan or 1.28%, the profit of MTBE remained unchanged, and the profit of formaldehyde was - 260.60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 1.88% [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2,106 yuan/ton, closing at 2,103 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,038,707 lots and an open interest of 1,382,830, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Currently, a total of 11 methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are operating at their existing loads, with an overall average operating load of 75.82%. As of the previous day, the overall methanol loading volume in this Middle - Eastern country was 275,000 tons, and the loading speed was relatively slow. Attention should be paid to the later natural gas supply and local plant operating conditions [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them (viewpoint score: 0) [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are low, so short - selling is not recommended from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive is limited due to factors such as the less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran leading to high imports and high inventory pressure at ports, and the high raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises resulting in insufficient downstream restocking motivation. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the gas - restriction expectation of inland gas - to - methanol production, and the rising option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: MA01 closed at 2108 yuan/ton on 2025/11/12, up 26 yuan/ton (1.25%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2211 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.77%); MA09 closed at 2233 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.68%) [1] - Spot prices: In regions like Taicang, the price was 2070 yuan/ton on 2025/11/12, up 12.5 yuan/ton (0.61%); in Shandong, it remained unchanged at 2187.5 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was stable at 2075 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, it rose 5 yuan/ton (0.26%) to 1945 yuan/ton; in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, prices remained unchanged [1] - Price differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 38 yuan/ton on 2025/11/12, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Datong Q5500 remained at 702.5 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 decreased 5 yuan/ton (- 0.73%) to 680 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, prices remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 100.3 yuan/ton; natural gas - to - methanol profit decreased 30 yuan/ton (- 2.34%) to - 1310 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit remained at 41.2 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased 66 yuan/ton (- 14.00%) to - 537.57 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased 11.81 yuan/ton (- 2.68%) to 428.72 yuan/ton; MTBE profit increased 20 yuan/ton (5.82%) to 363.68 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit remained at - 265.6 yuan/ton [1] 4. Information - Domestic information: The main methanol contract MA2601 stopped falling and rebounded, opening at 2084 yuan/ton, closing at 2108 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1032752 lots and open interest of 1407320, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: In a Middle - Eastern country, 11 methanol plants maintained their existing load, with an average operating load of 75.82%. As of the previous day, the total methanol loading volume was 27.5 tons, and the loading speed was relatively slow. Attention should be paid to future natural gas supply and local plant operation [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - The short - term judgment of methanol is low - level oscillation. The absolute price and relative valuation of methanol are already relatively low, so it is not recommended to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive of methanol is limited due to high expected imports and insufficient downstream restocking power. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the expected gas restriction of inland gas - to - methanol, and the increase in option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased from 2125 yuan/ton to 2112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%; MA05 decreased from 2226 yuan/ton to 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%; MA09 decreased from 2230 yuan/ton to 2228 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In some regions, such as Shandong, it increased from 2172.50 yuan/ton to 2185.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%, while in other regions like Guangdong and Shaanxi, there was no change [1] - Price differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18.00 yuan/ton [1] 2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: Datong Q5500 increased from 672.50 yuan/ton to 690.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.60%; Yulin Q6000 increased from 670.00 yuan/ton to 680.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.49% [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: There was no change in Hohhot and Chongqing [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased from 125.50 yuan/ton to 112.90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.04%; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged at - 1100.00 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Some downstream products like acetic acid and MTBE saw profit increases, with acetic acid increasing from 391.99 yuan/ton to 410.56 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.74%, and MTBE increasing from 383.68 yuan/ton to 407.28 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15% [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1] - Foreign information: In other regions of the Middle East, there were different price ranges for ship cargo negotiations, and the CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1] 5. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already on the low side, so it is not advisable to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive is limited due to two factors: the winter gas restriction in Iran is less than expected, and the port inventory pressure is difficult to reduce; the raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises is relatively high in the past five years, and the downstream replenishment motivation is temporarily insufficient. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the gas - restriction expectation of inland gas - to - methanol, and the rising option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA05 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.58%); MA09 closed at 2228 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.09%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.24%), and in Shandong it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.58%), while in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, the prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18 yuan/ton. The price of some coal types also increased, such as Datong Q5500 increasing by 17.5 yuan/ton (2.60%) and Yulin Q6000 increasing by 10 yuan/ton (1.49%) [1]. b. Cost and Profit Information - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of industrial natural gas in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged. The coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 12.6 yuan/ton (-10.04%), and the natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 1100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit Situations**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-21.48%), while the profit of East China MTO increased by 61 yuan/ton (11.00%). The profits of some downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE increased, with acetic acid increasing by 18.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) and MTBE increasing by 23.6 yuan/ton (6.15%) [1]. c. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: In other regions of the Middle East, the reference negotiation for ship cargoes was - 4 - 2%, the buyers' intended bids were - 4 - 5%, and the sellers' intended offers were - 2 - 2.5%. The CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (Oct 20 - Oct 24), PVC prices oscillated at a low level, with the weekly line turning positive and ending a four - week losing streak. The market is expected to continue its low - level oscillation in the future. The fundamentals remain in a pattern of high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and weak demand, with limited upside drivers. However, due to the low absolute price and the strengthening of raw material prices, the downside space is extremely limited. The current position volume is at a high level for the same period, so attention should be paid to capital dynamics [3][4][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Review - This week, PVC prices oscillated at a low level. It opened 8 points higher at the weekly low of 4696 on Monday, then rose to 4746 and oscillated downward. It hit the weekly low of 4670 on Tuesday night and then rebounded, reaching the weekly high of 4749 on Friday night and finally closing at 4708, up 20 points or 0.3% from last week. The amplitude for the whole week was 79 points. As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 4708 yuan/ton, and the main position volume was 1.23 million lots [3][8][11]. - As of Friday, the Changzhou basis of PVC was - 108 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 120,000 lots. The V1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan/ton, and the V3 - 5 spread was - 230 yuan/ton [14][17]. Supply - This week, PVC production was 470,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.1), with the capacity utilization rate at 77%. The cumulative production from week 1 to week 43 increased by 4.6% year - on - year. It is predicted that the supply will increase next week as the start - up of PVC enterprises will rise and the maintenance enterprises will gradually resume production. However, the start - up of downstream enterprises will remain low, and export is expected to decline, so the overall supply - demand gap is expected to widen [20]. Real Estate - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 18.9%, - 9.4%, - 15.3%, and - 5.5% respectively. The decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed, while the decline in construction and sales areas continued to expand. In September 2025, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. This week, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.84 million square meters [23][26]. Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream start - up rate was 49%, and it has been slowly increasing after the holiday. From January to September 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, with the apparent consumption in September being 1.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [29]. Exports - From January to September 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.92 million tons (an increase of 980,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51%. In September 2025, the export volume was 350,000 tons (including 160,000 tons to India). The export market continues the trend of "trading volume with price", and the weekly order signing increased month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 3.14 million tons (a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11%), and the export volume in September was 350,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 3%) [32][38]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the inventory of PVC enterprises was 340,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons), and the inventory has been accelerating to decline for two consecutive weeks after the holiday. The upstream enterprises' pre - sales volume was 64 (a week - on - week increase of 8). The small - sample social inventory of PVC was 540,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons), and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%), remaining stable [41][44]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of PVC by the calcium carbide method was - 723 yuan/ton. The price of calcium carbide rose slightly at a low level, strengthening the cost support. Currently, the profit of the northwest chlor - alkali integration continues to be compressed [47][50]. Strategies - Unilateral: Due to the low valuation of the absolute price in the short term, participate in the rebound market with a light position according to capital dynamics. Pay attention to the range of [4650, 4850] for the V2601 contract. - Hedging: As the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial customers can sell on the futures market when the price is high [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that methanol is in a low - level oscillation, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long. Methanol's valuation is neutral. Although the upstream coal - based profit is still high, the coastal profit has rebounded to a high level, and the price of methanol in East China is relatively undervalued compared to downstream, with limited further downward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities to go long in the future [5][41]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [5][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - From August 18th to August 29th, methanol prices oscillated downward. After the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment in coking coal, methanol returned to a weak fundamental situation. The increase in supply from inland coal - to - methanol enterprises and imported methanol led to price downward pressure [5][10][41]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - With the increasing import pressure, the spot is relatively weak. The East China spot basis has weakened, and the near - month futures contracts have also weakened. On August 18th, the East China basis was - 106 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, it was - 151 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was 18 yuan/ton on August 18th and - 11 yuan/ton on August 29th [11]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Cost and Production**: Coal - to - methanol profits are still high. Although the weekly coal - to - methanol production rate decreased slightly, it is still at a high level year - on - year. Most maintenance devices are expected to restart in September, so the upstream production is expected to gradually increase. As of August 28th, the weekly coal - to - methanol production rate was 77.61%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.07 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly gas - to - methanol production rate was 50.79%, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 4.52 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory accumulation rate continues to accelerate. As of the week of August 28th, the total port inventory was 106.6 tons, an increase of 13.18 tons month - on - month and 16.52 tons year - on - year. The inventory in the Northwest region also increased slightly [20]. 3.4 Demand - side Analysis - **MTO Demand**: The profit of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) has improved, and the MTO production rate remains relatively high. As of August 28th, the weekly production rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 82.24%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 0.25 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly production rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally was 78.56%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 2.76 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO enterprises have a high inventory of methanol raw materials, so the demand for restocking is low, and the upward driving force for methanol is insufficient [24]. - **Traditional Demand**: The traditional downstream of methanol includes acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether. Although the production of some traditional downstream industries decreased last week, the downstream profit has improved marginally. The peak season from September to October may boost the demand for methanol [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold is expected to maintain a low-level oscillation rebound, with a focus on short-term trading strategies until a clear breakout occurs [4][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced a wide range of fluctuations, opening lower and then rising, with a minimum of 3323 and a maximum of 3358, before settling around 3326 [3]. - The current trend is identified as a bullish one, but the strength of the upward movement is under pressure due to a stronger dollar [4]. - The key resistance level for gold is set at 3360; if this level is broken, further upward movement is anticipated [4][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver showed limited upward momentum, peaking at 38.2 before retreating, with a focus on maintaining a bullish trend above the support level of 37.5 [5][6]. - The target for silver is set at 38.5 and potentially 39 if upward momentum is strong enough [5]. Domestic Gold and Silver Contracts - The domestic gold contract (沪金) is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with targets of 785 and 790 depending on market strength [5]. - The domestic silver contract (沪银) is also projected to remain bullish as long as it stays above the support level of 9200, with potential targets of 9400 and 9550 [6]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil rebounded from a support level of 62, with a current price around 63.2, indicating a low-level oscillation [6]. - The focus is on whether the 62 support level holds; if it breaks, further declines may occur, potentially reaching 58 [6]. Fuel Oil Market Analysis - Domestic fuel oil is currently weak but is expected to hold above 2800, with potential for upward movement if a rebound occurs [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the low-level fluctuations of styrene and how monitoring tools can capture opportunities during these fluctuations [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of using advanced monitoring tools to identify potential investment opportunities in a volatile market [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the current market conditions of styrene, indicating that it is maintaining a low-level oscillation [1] - It suggests that investors can leverage monitoring tools to make informed decisions and optimize their trading strategies in response to market changes [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to fluctuate, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, hot - rolled coil supply is stable, but the pressure has not eased. Demand has improved, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The fundamentals are weakly stable, and prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that overseas risks are easing. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.43%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continue to be weak, and the futures price discount is continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, China's excavator production was 140,575 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. In May 2025, the production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. For tractors, in May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 7,165 units, 17,451 units, and 11,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 32.8%, 13.3%, and 8.3%. From January to May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 58,725 units, 121,414 units, and 54,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 2.4%, 8.0%, and 18.2%. Overall, from January to May 2025, the production of major mechanical equipment in China varied. Excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools had the most obvious production growth, with year - on - year increases of 13.9%, 13.3%, and 11.3% respectively; the production of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 18.2% [6]. - After the end of the air - conditioning cold year, the export production schedule for July decreased by 17.7%. In April, the traditional sales peak season started, and enterprises significantly increased resource investment, leading to a rapid increase in retail data. The 618 promotion started on May 13th, and combined with the trade - in policy, retail data increased again. According to Aowei Cloud Network's aggregated data, in May, air - conditioning retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. The high retail growth drove the acceleration of enterprise production and a high base in the second quarter. In July 2025, the production schedule for household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Among them, the domestic sales production schedule was 8.82 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; the export production schedule was 5.49 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7% [7]. - According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in May 2025, China's crude steel production was 86.545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; from January to May, the cumulative crude steel production was 431.631 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In terms of provincial and municipal data, from January to May 2025, Hebei ranked first with a production of 92.8269 million tons; Jiangsu ranked second with a production of 52.49 million tons; Shandong ranked third with a production of 30.3332 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,060, 3,200, and 3,219 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 5. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,100, and 3,229 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 4. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 with a change of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 with no change, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 930 with a change of - 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 710 with a change of 1; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 707 with a change of - 3. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 9.62 and 25.07 respectively, with changes of - 0.91 and - 0.80. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.17 with a change of - 0.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 with a change of - 0.35 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,986, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,002, a low of 2,975, a trading volume of 1,180,366 (a decrease of 146,607), and an open interest of 2,132,733 (a decrease of 1,210) [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,120, a low of 3,092, a trading volume of 398,637 (a decrease of 85,432), and an open interest of 1,488,632 (a decrease of 13,154) [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 698.0, with a daily increase of 0.43%, a high of 703.0, a low of 691.5, a trading volume of 392,127 (a decrease of 46,650), and an open interest of 678,221 (a decrease of 6,843) [11]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventories), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, as well as charts on steel mill production such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, proportion of profitable steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit and loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [13][18][28]. 3.5后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand continued to decline. Weekly production decreased by 108,900 tons, and supply continued to contract to the lowest level of the year, leading to inventory reduction and providing support for steel prices. However, due to good profit per ton of the product, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Meanwhile, rebar demand continued to weaken seasonally, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 124,000 tons, and high - frequency daily transactions were lower than normal, both remaining at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still likely to suppress steel prices. Overall, the situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Although mill maintenance led to a decrease in hot - rolled coil production, with a weekly decrease of 41,000 tons, it was still at a high level of the year, and mills mainly focused on protecting plate production, so the supply pressure was difficult to relieve. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand was weakly stable, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons, and high - frequency transactions rebounded at a low level, mainly due to the high - level production of the downstream cold - rolling industry. However, industrial contradictions were still accumulating, and attention should be paid to the pressure caused by the intensification of contradictions. The relatively positive factor was the progress in China - US trade negotiations and the easing of overseas risks. In short, the supply of hot - rolled coil was stable, the pressure was not relieved, demand improved but its sustainability needed to be tracked, the fundamentals were weakly stable, prices continued to be under pressure, and the relatively positive factor was the easing of overseas risks. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern weakened as expected, and inventory continued to accumulate. During the off - season, steel mill production weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal production and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, but the decline was relatively limited. Considering the obvious weakening of steel market demand during the off - season, there was still room for further reduction in the future, and the weak demand pattern remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports decreased, and the shipments from overseas miners also decreased but remained at a high level of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume was expected to increase again, and the domestic ore supply was weakly stable. Overall, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continued to be weak, and the futures price discount was continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [36].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with weak expectations remaining unchanged. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory, and the price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [2][4] Section Summaries 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, briefly boosting market confidence. The real estate is in the bottom - building process, and the demand for steel is still marginally weakening [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week's data showed a decline in production, factory inventory, and social inventory, and a decrease in apparent demand. The peak season of apparent demand has passed, and demand will weaken further with the arrival of rainy seasons and high - temperature weather. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has a strong rebound and has stood above the 10 - day moving average for three consecutive days, indicating that it will enter a low - level oscillation and may have a second bottom - probing [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Buy at low prices after the second bottom - probing [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract is 2991 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day and last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3108 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day and 0.36% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's thread steel production is 218.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%; the hot - rolled coil production is 328.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties is 935.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%; the thread steel social inventory is 385.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 264.29 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52% [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, reducing uncertainties and briefly boosting market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a bottom and a ceiling. Attention should be paid to the future breakthrough direction [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and avoid chasing up or selling down [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 707 yuan/dry ton, up 1.22% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week [4] - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1872.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.06%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 641.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.35% [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 13826.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%; the port trade ore inventory is 9385.44 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [4] 3. Industry News - On June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills was 88.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output of sample steel mills was 241.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [6] - According to Buguwang, the national building materials social inventory is 552.24 tons, an increase of 1.77 tons from last week, up 0.32%; the factory inventory is 313.18 tons, a decrease of 12.97 tons from last week, down 3.98%; the production is 413.77 tons, a decrease of 8.16 tons from last week, down 1.93% [6]