卖地收入与地产相关税背离
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卖地收入和地产相关税背离的几点观察——10月财政数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-11-18 14:33
Group 1 - The core observation is the divergence between land sales revenue and real estate-related taxes, with land sales revenue declining by 27.3% year-on-year in October, marking the lowest growth since August of the previous year, while real estate-related taxes remained relatively stable, decreasing by only 1.4% year-on-year [3][10][11] - The divergence is attributed to the growth of non-transaction taxes, which are less correlated with land sales revenue, and the inherent volatility of land sales revenue itself, influenced by structural factors such as the withdrawal of city investment platforms and the concentration of land sales in major cities [3][4][10][12] - City investment platforms have historically contributed 30% to 40% of land sales revenue, but their role is shifting as they exit unsustainable support mechanisms, with projections indicating a decrease in their contribution to 24.8% by 2024 [5][13][14] Group 2 - In October, tax revenue continued to show high growth, driven primarily by price-related taxes and personal income tax, with notable contributions from sectors such as computer communication equipment and scientific research [21][22][23] - The government’s fiscal income saw a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in October, with a budget revenue progress of 84.8% for the first ten months, indicating a faster pace compared to the average of the past three years [21][22] - On the expenditure side, public fiscal spending saw a significant decline of 9.8% year-on-year in October, primarily due to high base effects and continued pressure from infrastructure spending [33][37]