文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：高拓 （13705969808） 事项 10月广义财政收入同比-0.6%，9月同比3.2%；10月广义财政支出同比-19.1%，9月同比2.3%。 报告摘要 为何背离？我们分别观察地产相关税、卖地收入：一方面，地产相关税中， 和卖地收入关联度较弱的非交易 环节税增长，导致背离 ；另一方面， 卖地收入波动较大，或有其自身结构性因素，客观放大波动，我们提示 需理性看待 ， 试列举两点——一是 城投退平台，验证改革转型成果，客观放大波动；二是卖地高集中，强化 城市微观逻辑， 客观放大波动 （详见下文）。 （二）地产相关税的观察：和卖地收入关联度较弱的非交易环节税增长，导致背离 地产相关税，可以进一步分为交易环节税（土地增值税、契税）和非交易环节税（城镇土地使用税、耕地占 用税、房产税），其中，交易环节税和卖地收入直接相关 （土地增值税，对土地使用权转让的增值额征税； 契税，计税依据包含土地出让金）， 而非交易环节税和卖地收入关联度较弱 （城镇土地使用税，对持有土地 的行为按年征收，与一次性的卖地收入不直接相关；耕 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, an increasing number of government financing platforms have announced their separation from government credit, indicating a significant shift in the operational landscape of local government financing platforms [2][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Timeline - The "150 Document" issued in August 2025 mandates that local government financing platforms must be cleared by June 2027, aiming to eliminate hidden local government debt [3][4]. - As of October 2025, over 15 financing platforms have announced their exit from government financing, with a total of 114 platforms officially disclosing their exit in 2025 alone [3][5]. - The exit trend is particularly pronounced in provinces like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, which have seen the highest numbers of platforms withdrawing [5][6]. Group 2: Market Transition and Challenges - The transition from government-backed financing to market-oriented operations is essential for financing platforms to enhance their self-sustaining capabilities [14][15]. - The restructuring process is driven by both policy enforcement and the platforms' internal needs to adapt to a market-driven environment [5][13]. - Financing platforms are encouraged to focus on market-oriented business models, moving away from traditional infrastructure projects to sectors like renewable energy and urban services [15][16]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Debt Management - The exit from government financing does not equate to a complete severance of ties with local governments; rather, it necessitates a clear delineation of responsibilities and collaboration [9][11]. - Financial institutions are advised to manage existing debts carefully, ensuring that platforms can meet their obligations without relying on government support [7][11]. - The successful issuance of bonds by entities like Chongqing Urban Investment post-exit indicates a potential recovery of market confidence in these platforms [9][10]. Group 4: Future Directions and Strategic Focus - Financing platforms must enhance their operational efficiency and focus on core business areas to ensure stable cash flows [15][16]. - There is a need for platforms to actively engage in market opportunities that align with local economic development, such as smart city initiatives and industrial park operations [16]. - The transformation of financing platforms is not merely a regulatory requirement but a strategic necessity to adapt to changing economic conditions and stakeholder expectations [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The gradual exit of local government financing platforms marks the end of an era, necessitating a transformation towards market-oriented operations for these entities [2][10]. Group 1: Exit from Government Financing Platforms - Since 2025, numerous local government financing platforms have announced their exit from government financing, with over 15 platforms making such announcements in October alone [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued a notice in August 2025, mandating the complete exit of local government financing platforms by June 2027 [1][2]. - As of September 26, 2025, 114 local government financing platforms have officially announced their exit, with Shandong leading with 28 exits [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The "One Package Debt Relief" policy has been a driving force behind the structured exit of financing platforms, with clear timelines and standards established [2][3]. - The exit process is influenced by both policy enforcement and the internal need for financing platforms to transition towards market-oriented operations [3][4]. Group 3: Transformation and New Business Models - Financing platforms are encouraged to enhance their self-sustaining capabilities by shifting focus from traditional infrastructure projects to market-oriented businesses that generate continuous cash flow [10][11]. - The restructuring process involves consolidating core business areas, expanding into new market opportunities, and effectively managing existing assets to generate revenue [11][12]. - The transition from reliance on government credit to independent market operations is crucial for the sustainability of these platforms [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Communication and Debt Management - Effective communication with financial institutions regarding existing debts is essential during the exit process, ensuring that all stakeholders are informed and agreements are reached [5][6]. - The management of existing operational debts must be handled carefully, utilizing strategies such as debt restructuring and asset optimization to maintain financial credibility [5][6]. Group 5: Ongoing Relationship with Local Governments - Despite exiting government financing platforms, the relationship between these entities and local governments remains significant, necessitating a clear delineation of responsibilities [6][7]. - The support from local governments is expected to continue, as these platforms still play vital roles in regional development [7][8]. Group 6: Regulatory Environment and Accountability - The regulatory environment has tightened around local government financing, with increased scrutiny on hidden debts and accountability for local officials [9][10]. - Recent cases of hidden debt have highlighted the need for compliance with national policies, reinforcing the urgency for financing platforms to adapt to new operational frameworks [9][10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the accelerated process of "platform exit" for local government financing platforms in China, which is crucial for the transformation of these platforms and has significant implications for local economic development and financial market stability [1][34] - Since the initiation of the "platform exit" work, over 4,000 local financing platforms have completed the exit process, with a notable increase in speed in 2025 [2] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory focus on local government debt risks has intensified, leading to a series of policies aimed at managing these risks, starting from the 2014 directive to separate government financing functions from financing platform companies [1] - The "150 document" issued in August 2024 outlines specific requirements for the exit process, mandating completion by June 2027 [1] - The "99 document" released in January 2025 sets execution standards, requiring a reduction of financing platforms by at least 75% by the end of 2025 and 90% by the end of 2026 [1] Regional Analysis - As of August 26, 2025, 209 local financing platforms have announced their exit, with Shandong, Qinghai, and Jiangsu provinces leading in the number of exits, accounting for approximately 31.43% of the total [2] - The majority of exiting platforms are rated as unrated, AA, and AA+ [2] Impact on Local Economies - The "platform exit" process is expected to create opportunities for market-oriented operations, isolate debt risks, and optimize market pricing mechanisms, while also presenting challenges such as debt pressure and credit risk differentiation [34] - Different regions are experiencing varying speeds in the exit process, with eastern regions advancing due to economic advantages, while western and underdeveloped areas rely on policy support [34] Strategies for Transformation - To successfully navigate the challenges posed by the exit process, local financing platforms need to diversify their business, establish market-oriented operational mechanisms, and focus on asset integration and revitalization [34]