Core Insights - The resumption of U.S. soybean imports by China has led to an increase in CBOT soybean prices, with domestic soybean meal prices also rebounding. However, the market is expected to operate in a volatile manner due to weak supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: South American Soybean Planting - Favorable weather conditions in South America have facilitated soybean planting, with Brazil's planting area expected to grow by over 3.5% year-on-year for the 2025/2026 season. As of November 8, Brazil's planting progress reached 58.4%, a significant increase from 47.1% the previous week, with an estimated total production of 177 million tons, up 4.7% from last year [2] - Argentina's soybean planting area is projected to decrease to 17.6 million hectares, a decline of 4.3% year-on-year. As of November 5, Argentina's planting progress was at 4.4%, down 3.5 percentage points from the previous year, with an estimated total production of 4.9 million tons. Together, Brazil and Argentina account for 52.48% of global soybean production [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Import Expectations - The USDA forecasts China's soybean imports for 2025 to be 112 million tons. As of October, China had imported 95.68 million tons, leaving a remaining import volume of 16.32 million tons. The expected port arrivals for November and December are 9.55 million tons and 8.3 million tons, respectively, which would meet domestic demand. However, if future arrivals only cover previously signed contracts, a shortfall may occur, necessitating imports from the U.S. [3] - Despite potential tariff reductions on U.S. soybeans, they remain 10% more expensive than Brazilian soybeans, which have a price advantage of $1 per bushel. Therefore, achieving the target of importing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in November and December is unlikely [3] Group 3: Import Commitments and Market Dynamics - A recent agreement between China and the U.S. commits China to import at least 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually from 2026 to 2028, totaling no less than 75 million tons over three years. This commitment is more definitive than previous intentions and lacks flexible adjustment clauses based on price fluctuations, indicating a higher likelihood of compliance [4] - Historical data shows that China's soybean imports from the U.S. were 29.53 million tons in 2022, 24.17 million tons in 2023, and 22.13 million tons in 2024, suggesting strong feasibility for meeting future commitments based on domestic demand and import potential [4] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Inventory Levels - Following the tariff increase on U.S. soybeans in April 2025, domestic soybean supply was expected to tighten, prompting increased imports from Brazil. However, domestic soybean inventories have risen significantly, reaching 10.33 million tons as of November 7, compared to 6.9 million tons last year, marking a four-year high. Oil mill soybean meal inventories also hit a four-year high at 878,000 tons, indicating ample supply [5] - The pig and poultry farming sectors are currently facing losses, dampening the enthusiasm for restocking among farmers. Although inventory levels remain high, the pace of capacity reduction has officially begun. Long-term trends show that the proportion of soybean meal in pig feed has decreased to 13%, limiting growth potential for domestic soybean meal demand [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - The USDA is expected to release a supply and demand report that may lower U.S. soybean production estimates while raising export projections. The adjustments for South American soybean production are anticipated to be limited, suggesting a bullish outlook for the market. However, domestic soybean meal performance is likely to lag behind due to differences in supply and demand fundamentals, ample domestic inventories, and slowing downstream demand [6] - The growth conditions for South American soybeans will be a critical variable moving forward. If Brazil continues to produce abundantly, the global soybean supply-demand balance is unlikely to shift [6]