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卫星遥感监测及产量预估报告
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 00:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The production of key global agricultural products in May 2025 shows different trends. The yields of US soybeans, corn, and cotton are expected to be optimistic, with single - yield estimates higher than USDA expectations. The rapeseed growth in Canada and Australia is slow, and the Australian single - yield is lower than USDA expectations. The climate in Southeast Asian palm oil producing areas is stable, and the production is expected to be positive. The impact of recent extreme weather is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Key Agricultural Product Yield Estimation - **Yield Estimation Varieties, Time Window, and Method** - The monitoring period is May, covering key agricultural products such as US soybeans, corn, cotton, Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and Southeast Asian palm oil. The time - cycle includes 20 years of current and historical data from 2005 - 2025. Data sources include satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and field observations, with 24 key indicators. A self - built yield model is constructed using multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote sensing data, combined with meteorological and historical yield data [7][8][13]. - **Yield Estimation Results** - US soybeans are expected to have a single - yield of over 52 bushels per acre, corn about 180.2 bushels per acre, and cotton 980 kg per hectare, all higher than USDA expectations. The single - yield of Australian rapeseed is 1.63 tons per hectare, lower than USDA expectations [3][14]. Global Key Agricultural Product Growth Monitoring - **Malaysian and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas** - In May 2025, the vegetation index, precipitation, and temperature in palm oil producing areas are within the historical reasonable range. The vegetation index in each producing area is better than or close to the historical average. Precipitation shows regional differentiation, and temperature shows the characteristics of "mild in the east and slightly hot in the west". Only the subsequent precipitation supplement in Sumatra and local waterlogging in Kalimantan need attention [17][20][26]. - **US Soybean and Corn Producing Areas** - In May 2025, there are no extreme climate factors in the US soybean and corn producing areas, but there are significant regional differences. The vegetation growth in the central - western main producing areas is slightly weak, the Great Lakes region needs to be vigilant against the risk of waterlogging and low - temperature superposition, and the western plain area may have yield differentiation due to insufficient precipitation and mild low - temperature. The overall production is expected to be good [27][28][35]. - **US Cotton Producing Areas** - In May 2025, the growth environment of US cotton producing areas shows significant regional differences. The vegetation index in the southeastern producing areas is prominent, and the precipitation is "more in the east and less in the west". The southeast needs to prevent waterlogging, and the risk in the western arid areas is controllable. The temperature conditions are generally suitable [36][37][42]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Producing Areas** - No detailed growth status information is provided in the given content. - **Australian Rapeseed Producing Areas** - The growth progress of rapeseed in Australia is slow, and the single - yield of 1.63 tons per hectare is lower than USDA expectations [3][14]. Recent Extreme Weather Impact Analysis - **Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Impact in South American Argentina** - The extreme precipitation in Argentina in May did not cause large - scale waterlogging [3]. - **Analysis of Cold Wave Impact in European Rapeseed Producing Areas** - The spring cold wave in Europe in 2025 is milder than that in 2024, and the growth of rapeseed in the main producing areas is not significantly affected [3]. - **Analysis of Historical and Future Weather in US Producing Areas** - The precipitation distribution in the US from April to June is uneven, with more in the east and less in the central - west. In the next month, the overall precipitation is sufficient, with more in the central - west and south, and drier in Iowa. The risk of waterlogging is still a focus this year [3].