油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/19 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： USDA：截至11月16日当周美国大豆收割率为95%，落后于去年同期 美国农业部（USDA）在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年11月16日当周，美国大豆收割率为95%，去年同期 为98%，五年均值为96%。 Abiove：巴西2025/26年度大豆产量料为创纪录的1.777亿吨 Abiove周二在一份报告中称，预计巴西2025/26年度大豆产量料为创纪录的1.777亿吨，而之前的预估为1.785亿 吨，高于上一年度的1.721亿吨。 该报告预计巴西2025/26年度大豆压榨量为6,050万吨，与之前预估持平，高于上一年度的5,850万吨。 该报告称，预计2026年巴西大豆出口量将达1.11亿吨，与之前的预估相同，高于2025年的1.09亿吨。 巴西2026年豆油产量将达到创纪录的1,215万吨，与之前的预估相同，2025年为约1,170万吨。 预计巴西2026年豆油进口量将达到史无前例的12.5万吨，较2025年大幅增长25%。 预计巴西2026年豆油出口量将达到前所未有的120万吨，而2025年为100万吨。 预计巴 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Conab anticipates Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to rise by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, with the planting area expanding by 3.7% to 49.08 million hectares; corn production is expected to be 138.28 million tons, and the planting area is estimated at 22,630 tons [1]. - Conab predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean exports to reach a record 112.12 million tons, mainly driven by exports to China; corn exports are expected to be 4.65 million tons [1]. - The USDA reports that for the week ending September 11, US 2025/26 market - year soybean export sales net increased by 92.30 million tons, meeting expectations; exports loaded were 83.71 million tons, up 31% from the previous week and 70% from the four - week average [1]. - China's customs data shows that in August, palm oil imports were 340,000 tons (up 16.5% year - on - year), soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons (up 113.9% year - on - year), and rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 140,000 tons (up 18.7% year - on - year) [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Conab's first forecast for the 2025/2026 crop year shows an increase in Brazil's soybean production and planting area, and a slight decrease in corn production; soybean and corn exports are expected to rise [1]. - The USDA's export sales report indicates the situation of US soybean export sales and shipments for the week ending September 11 [1]. - China's customs data reveals the import volume and year - on - year changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed and mustard oil in August and from January to August [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 12 to September 18, 2025, are presented, showing price fluctuations [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - Not provided with specific content Oilseed and Oil Futures Price Spreads - Not provided with specific content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the trading of US soybeans, soybean meal, and palm oil, as well as the estimated data of US soybean crushing and the production forecast of Brazilian soybeans [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information of US Soybeans and Soybean Meal - From September 1 - 4, US 2025/2026 soybean export sales net increased by 541,100 tons, with a total of 767,000 tons carried over from the 2024/2025 sales. The export shipment as of August 31 was 406,600 tons, and the cumulative export shipment reached 50.1059 million tons, a 13% increase from the previous year. The new sales of US soybeans in the current market year were 1.4957 million tons [1]. - From September 1 - 4, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 33,400 tons, a 16% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The next - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 324,100 tons. The export shipment of soybean meal was 250,100 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous week and a 12% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The new sales of current - market - year soybean meal were 56,100 tons, and the next - market - year new sales were 325,400 tons [1]. Estimated Data of US Soybean Crushing - Before the release of the NOPA monthly report, analysts estimated that the US soybean crushing volume in August would be 182.857 million bushels, a 6.6% decrease from July but a 15.7% increase from August 2024. The estimated daily crushing volume in August was 5.899 million bushels, the slowest since August last year. The estimated soybean oil inventory held by NOPA members as of August 31 was 1298 million pounds, a 5.8% decrease from the end of July [1]. Production Forecast of Brazilian Soybeans - Conab raised the forecast of Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production to a record 171.47 million tons, an increase of 1.82 million tons from the August forecast. The export forecast for 2024/2025 was raised by 400,000 tons to 106.65 million tons. Brazilian farmers have started sowing the 2025/2026 soybeans, and the new - year production is expected to exceed 180 million tons [1]. Palm Oil Production in Malaysia - According to SPPOMA, from September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, with a 2.70% decrease in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.09% decrease in oil extraction rate [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 5 - 11, 2025, are provided, showing price fluctuations during this period [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The US soybean meal export sales and shipments showed mixed performance in the week ending August 21, 2025, with current - year sales increasing and shipments decreasing [1]. - The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July 2025 is expected to reach a record high for the same period, driven by increased demand for vegetable oil from bio - fuel producers and higher profits [1]. - The soybean planting area in Brazil's Paraná state is expected to expand by 1% in the 2025/26 season, and the yield may increase by 4% [1]. - Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 due to a 5.7% increase in yield, offsetting the 2.0% reduction in the harvesting area [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean meal export sales: In the week ending August 21, 2025, current - year export sales net increased by 4.73 million tons (up 3% from the previous week and down 34% from the four - week average), and next - year sales net increased by 21.48 million tons. Market expectations were 2.5 - 15 million tons for current - year and 10 - 30 million tons for next - year sales. Export shipments were 19.81 million tons, down 25% from the previous week and 35% from the four - week average [1]. - US soybean crushing volume in July 2025: Expected to be 207.2 million bushels (6.218 million short tons), up 5.1% from June and 7.2% from July 2024, a record high for the same period. The estimated range is 204.8 - 212.0 million bushels, with a median of 207.1 million bushels. The increase is due to increased demand from bio - fuel producers and higher profits [1]. - US soybean oil inventory as of July 31, 2025: Expected to be 1.903 billion pounds, up 0.5% from the end of June and down 5.2% from July 2024. The estimated range is 1.875 - 1.960 billion pounds, with a median of 1.9 billion pounds [1]. - Brazil's Paraná state: The 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to be about 5.8 million hectares, up 1% from the previous year, and the yield may reach about 22 million tons, up 4% [1]. - Canada's rapeseed: The 2025 production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with a 5.7% increase in yield to 41.0 bushels per acre, offsetting a 2.0% reduction in the harvesting area to 21.4 million acres [1]. Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/22 | 2980 | 2540 | 8620 | 9530 | 10010 | | 2025/08/25 | 3010 | 2570 | 8700 | 9520 | 10010 | | 2025/08/26 | 2990 | 2560 | 8670 | 9440 | 10030 | | 2025/08/27 | 2970 | 2550 | 8610 | 9440 | 9970 | | 2025/08/28 | 2960 | 2520 | 8580 | 9350 | 9880 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest information on the global oilseeds and oils market, including U.S. export sales, Brazilian production forecasts, and Indian import trends. These data provide a basis for market participants to understand the supply - demand dynamics of the industry [1]. 3. Key Points by Category U.S. Export Sales - For the week ending August 7, U.S. current - market - year soybean export sales net decreased by 37.76 tons, a 181% drop from the previous week and a 235% decrease from the four - week average. Next - year soybean export sales net increased by 113.3 tons. Export shipments were 53.31 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous week but a 26% increase from the four - week average [1]. - For the same week, U.S. current - market - year bean meal export sales net increased by 2.63 tons, an 84% decrease from the previous week and an 86% decrease from the four - week average. Next - year bean meal export sales net increased by 24.67 tons. Export shipments were 36 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week and a 15% increase from the four - week average [1]. Brazilian Production Forecasts - Abiove raised Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 170.3 million tons from 169.7 million tons. It also increased the soybean crushing volume forecast to 58.1 million tons from 57.8 million tons and the soybean export forecast to 109.5 million tons from 109 million tons [1]. - The 2024/25 bean meal export forecast was maintained at 23.6 million tons, the soybean oil export forecast at 1.35 million tons. The soybean oil production forecast was increased to 11.65 million tons from 11.6 million tons, and the bean meal production forecast to 44.8 million tons from 44.5 million tons [1]. Indian Import Trends - In July, Indian palm oil imports declined by 10.5% to 855,695 tons due to canceled contracts. Meanwhile, soybean oil imports jumped 36.9% to 492,336 tons, reaching a three - year high. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 7.5% to 200,010 tons [1]. - The increase in soybean oil imports drove the total edible oil imports in July to rise 1.1% to 1.55 million tons, the highest since November last year. Indian 2024/25 soybean oil imports are expected to surge 60% year - on - year to a record 5.5 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices for various oilseeds and oils in different regions (Jiangsu and Guangdong) from August 8 to August 14, 2025, are presented, including those for bean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending July 31, 2025, was higher than expected, while the export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans for the current crop year was higher than the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 69%, in line with expectations. The flowering rate and pod - setting rate of US soybeans showed different trends compared with the previous week and the same period last year [1]. - StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. The estimated production of Brazil's second - quarter corn in the 2024/25 season was also raised by 3.2% [1]. - In July 2025, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July 2025 decreased by 25.01% compared with the previous month [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: In the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than the market forecast of 250,000 - 460,000 tons. The previous week's revised volume was 427,734 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume for the current crop year was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period last year. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [1]. - **US Soybean Crop Growth**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 69%, the same as the market expectation, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% the previous week, the same as the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average. The pod - setting rate was 58%, up from 41% the previous week, slightly higher than the same period last year and equal to the five - year average [1]. - **Brazil's Crop Production Forecast**: StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year due to increased planting area and crop yield. It also raised the estimated production of Brazil's second - quarter corn in the 2024/25 season by 3.2% to 111.7 million tons [1]. India's Edible Oil Imports - **Palm Oil**: In July 2025, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, lower than the 11 - month high in June [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: India's soybean oil imports in July 2025 increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. The increase was due to the delayed shipments in June being unloaded in July [1]. - **Sunflower Oil**: India's sunflower oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons [1]. - **Total Edible Oil**: The total edible oil imports in India in July 2025 increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons, the highest level since November last year [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil Exports - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July 2025 were 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease compared with 1,195,265 tons in the previous month [1]. Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices**: The report provided the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 29 to August 4, 2025 [1]. - **Basis**: The report presented the basis data of protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in different months and regions, as well as the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil in South China [1][2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A private exporter reported selling 142,500 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [1] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decline from the same period in June [1] - AmSpec data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease from the same period in June [1] - Commodity group Expana raised its forecast for the EU's rapeseed production this year to 19.6 million tons, up from last month's estimate of 19.2 million tons, a 16.7% increase from the previous year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Private exporter's soybean export to Mexico: 142,500 tons for 2025/2026 marketing year [1] - Malaysia's palm oil export data from July 1 - 25, 2025: ITS reported 1,029,585 tons with a 9.2% decline; AmSpec reported 896,484 tons with a 15.2% decline [1] - Expana's EU rapeseed production forecast: 19.6 million tons, up from 19.2 million tons last month, 16.7% higher than the previous year [1] Spot Prices - Price changes of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 21 - 25, 2025, are presented in a table [2] Others - There are also sections about main - producing country precipitation, imported soybean crushing profit, and oil import profit, as well as sections on oil - and - fat futures spreads, protein meal basis, and oil basis, but no detailed content is provided [1][3][9][10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report provides overnight market information on the oil and oilseed industry, including data on soybean crushing, exports, and palm oil production and exports [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - USDA reported that the U.S. soybean crush in May 2025 was 6.11 million short tons (203.7 million bushels), and the corn consumption for fuel ethanol production was 449.4 million bushels, lower than the same period last year. The U.S. corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) production in May was 1.776 million tons, lower than last year's 2.003 million tons [1]. - Anec estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in June 2025 could reach 13.93 million tons, higher than the previous estimate, while the soybean meal exports could be 1.67 million tons, lower than the previous estimate [1]. - StoneX raised its production estimates for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean and corn crops. The soybean production is expected to reach 168.75 million tons, slightly higher than the previous estimate [1]. - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 decreased by 0.65% month - on - month, with a decline in the fresh fruit bunch yield and oil extraction rate [1]. - Indonesia's May 2025 exports of crude and refined palm oil soared 53% year - on - year to 1.88 million tons, and the export value increased by nearly 71% to $1.85 billion. The first five months' exports were 8.3 million tons, higher than the same period last year [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oil and oilseed products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions from June 25 to July 1, 2025 are presented [2]. Protein Meal Basis - Information on protein meal basis is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [3]. Oil Basis - Information on oil basis is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [6]. Oil and Oilseed Futures Spread - Information on oil and oilseed futures spread is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the latest overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including export sales, production estimates, and export volume data from major producing countries, as well as spot prices, basis, and price spreads [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Overnight Market Information - **US Soybean Export Sales**: For the week ending June 12, US current market - year soybean export sales net increased by 53.95 million tons, up 779% from the previous week and 204% from the four - week average, exceeding market expectations. Next market - year export sales net increased by 7.52 million tons. Export shipments were 40.61 million tons, down 10% from the previous week but up 33% from the four - week average [1]. - **Argentine Soybean Production**: The 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated at 17.8 million hectares, up 0.6% from last month's estimate and 7.2% from the previous year. Production is estimated at 49.9 million tons, up 1.8% from last month's estimate and 3.5% from the previous year [1]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: SGS data shows that exports from June 1 - 20, 2025 were 759,881 tons, up 16.66% from the same period last month. ITS data shows exports were 847,695 tons, up 14.3% from the same period last month [1]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Exports**: For the week ending June 15, exports decreased 17% to 131,400 tons. From August 1, 2024 to June 15, 2025, exports were 8.8139 billion tons, up 54.2% from the same period last year. As of June 15, commercial inventory was 117,290 tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oilseeds and oils in different regions from June 16 - 20, 2025 are provided, including those of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2]. Others - There are also sections on protein meal basis, oil basis, and oilseed price spreads, but no specific content is provided in the given text [3][6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending June 12, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 600,000 tons, with 0 - 400,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 200,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 150,000 - 450,000 tons, with 150,000 - 350,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 100,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season. US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 32,000 tons, with 0 - 22,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. - The estimated soybean production in Argentina for the 2024/2025 season is 4.88 million tons, slightly higher than the previous estimate. The US Department of Agriculture predicts the production to be 4.9 million tons, the same as the May estimate. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the Rosario Grain Exchange currently estimate the production to be 5.03 million tons and 4.85 million tons respectively [1]. - As of now, Argentina's soybean harvest rate has reached 95%, slightly lower than 97% in the same period last year. The weather is expected to be drier in the next two weeks, which will help complete the remaining harvest on time [1]. - In May, China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. From January to May, palm oil imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.6%. In May, China's soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.6%. From January to May, soybean oil imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 75.8%. In May, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. From January to May, imports were 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.0% [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Export Sales Forecast - US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 600,000 tons as of the week ending June 12, with 0 - 400,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 200,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 150,000 - 450,000 tons, with 150,000 - 350,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 100,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 32,000 tons, with 0 - 22,000 tons for the 2024 - 2025 season and 0 - 10,000 tons for the 2025 - 2026 season [1]. Argentina's Soybean Production - The estimated soybean production in Argentina for the 2024/2025 season is 4.88 million tons, slightly higher than the previous estimate. The US Department of Agriculture predicts 4.9 million tons, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates 5.03 million tons, and the Rosario Grain Exchange estimates 4.85 million tons [1]. - As of now, Argentina's soybean harvest rate has reached 95%, slightly lower than 97% in the same period last year. The weather will be drier in the next two weeks, helping to complete the remaining harvest on time [1]. China's Oil Imports - In May, China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. From January to May, imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.6% [1]. - In May, China's soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.6%. From January to May, imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 75.8% [1]. - In May, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. From January to May, imports were 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.0% [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions from June 12 to June 18, 2025, are presented, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2]. Basis and Spread - Multiple charts show the basis and spread of protein meals and oils, including the basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil at different delivery months in different regions, as well as the price spreads between different varieties and different delivery months [3][5][8].