印尼 RKAB 政策
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镍日报-20260122
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-22 01:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 21st, the nickel price fluctuated widely. Overnight, the sharp decline of European and American stock markets led to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment. The nickel price followed the non - ferrous sector and fell below 140,000. During the domestic daytime, it strengthened again, closing up 0.39% at 143,060. The daily line showed a long lower shadow, with an amplitude of more than 6,000 between the high and low points. The total positions increased slightly by 2,000 lots to 392,000 lots. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,028.5 yuan per nickel point, and the bullish sentiment in the market drove up the bargaining range. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped 85 to 33,375 yuan per ton. The coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited. The nickel price continued to run strongly supported by Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and macro - sentiment. It is necessary to closely monitor the policy statements of Indonesia and the final quota for the new year. It is expected to have a large upward elasticity before the final outcome is determined [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The nickel price on the 21st had a wide - range shock. Affected by the overnight decline of European and American stock markets, it first fell below 140,000 and then strengthened during the domestic daytime, closing up 0.39% at 143,060. The total positions increased slightly by 2,000 lots to 392,000 lots. The price of high - nickel pig iron was flat, the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped, and the MHP coefficient remained high with limited short - term circulation. The nickel price is expected to be elastic before the Indonesian policy is finalized [7] 3.2行业要闻 - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) stated that the 2026 Annual Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) will be used as a strategic tool to synchronize mineral production with domestic industrial demand, setting the nickel production target at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. The government aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government is still integrating specific data [8] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 Annual Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business, but management expects the license to be approved soon. This temporary suspension only affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, and the existing main Sorowako mine and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10] - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons [10]