新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 镍品种 市场分析 2025-11-24日沪镍主力合约2601开于114500元/吨，收于115530元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.64%，当日成交量为 148534（+10331）手，持仓量为147554（-13106）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约震荡走高，但上涨仅是对上周周线级别加速下行、周五收出光脚放量长阴线后的技 术性修复，而非趋势反转。宏观方面，美联储发言偏鸽派，降息预期提升，带动金属期货走强。基本面方面，消 费依然疲软，全球镍库存处于5年内高位，将长期压制镍价反弹。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场较为平静，价格维稳运行。菲律宾方面，北部矿山出货尚不稳定，矿 山最新招标价略有走跌，但价格依旧居高。下游镍铁成交价跌至880元/(舱底含税)，市场信心缺失。铁厂利润受挫， 生产积极性不高，对原料镍矿采购多观望心理。印尼方面，11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2美元/吨，内贸升水 方面，当前主流升水维持+26，升水区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格120200元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨1550元/吨。下游企业 ...

高库存制约镍价反弹力度 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：美国9月非农就业人数超预期，但失业率升至4.4%，12月降息预期不明朗。中国经济缺乏亮点， 仍受房地产市场拖累，股市近期大幅下挫，市场等待政策助力。 产业方面：本次镍价下跌前，由于纯镍与硫酸镍价差扩大，已有部分电积镍产线转产硫酸镍。镍价跌至成 本附近引发进一步减产，预计11-12月纯镍产量显著下降。生产商惜售挺价，现货普遍升水，金川镍升水已 经从2000翻倍至4000以上。不过需求端也进入淡季，电镀及合金消费环比下降，不锈钢和三元正极排产也 环比走弱。供需双弱下，关注进口镍能否有增量弥补。国内库存本周减少，LME库存小幅增加，国内外合 计累库速度放缓。 期货层面：沪镍持仓达到30万手，创出2021年以来的新低。伦镍跟随沪镍下跌，尚未达到4月低点。周五 传闻印尼某MHP厂生产干扰影响6000金吨产量，或将进一步影响纯镍和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is in a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and the nickel price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market faces low demand, high inventory, and a continuous downward shift in cost, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 115,750 yuan/ton and closed at 115,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 124,692 (+42,129) lots, and the open interest was 152,848 (12,764) lots. It showed a weak and oscillating downward trend. The uncertainty of the Fed's policy increased, the probability of a December interest rate cut was less than 50%, the US dollar strengthened, and the supply - demand relationship became looser with rising inventory, leading to a clear short - term downward trend [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the 1.4% nickel ore tender of Eramen landed at $42/wet ton, and the 1.25% nickel ore tender of Benguet had no deal. The nickel - iron tender price of downstream mainstream steel mills reached a new low of 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and iron plants were not very motivated to produce and mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude towards raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by $0.12 - 0.2/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 119,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and the overall spot transaction was okay. The premiums of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and nickel beans were 4,100 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,450 yuan/ton respectively. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 34,631 (- 793) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,172 (-1,674) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,330 yuan/ton and closed at 12,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 119,724 (+31,045) lots, and the open interest was 192,398 (-4,171) lots. The price basically followed the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel price, there was still no sign of price rebound [3]. - **Spot**: The price continued to decline and reached a historical low, the market sentiment was even more sluggish, and the transaction was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The SMM data showed that the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 894.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

2025年11月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：去库速度放缓，市场情绪降温或带来回调 | 4 | | 工业硅：盘面弱势格局 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注下方支撑位 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 镍：镍价破位下行，承压震荡运行 不锈钢：弱现实压制钢价，但下方难言广阔 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 115,380 | -270 | -3,550 | -4,370 | -5,8 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 市场情绪悲观，镍不锈钢保持弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-11-19日沪镍主力合约2601开于115300元/吨，收于115650元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.29%，当日成交量为 82563（-34853）手，持仓量为85012（6815）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约换月至2601合约，整体走势有小幅反弹迹象，但主要是承接昨日大跌后的技术性反 抽。全天价格波动仅660元/吨，反映市场交投谨慎，观望情绪浓厚。宏观方面，随着美国政府停摆结束，相关数据 将在近期发布，可能会对12月降息产生影响，目前降息概率已不足50%。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场招标落地，镍矿价格维稳运行。菲律宾方面北部 Eramen1.4%镍矿招标落地 至42美元/湿吨，Benguet1.25%镍矿招标尚未有成交落地。下游镍铁价格承压，铁厂当前对原料镍矿采购多观望， 仍持压价心理。印尼方面，11月(二期)内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26， 升水区间多在+25-26。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格119500元/吨，较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Due to the high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Stainless steel is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - shifting cost center [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main nickel contract 2512 opened at 116,420 yuan/ton and closed at 114,840 yuan/ton, a - 1.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 117,416 (+14,501) lots, and the open interest was 99,682 (-7,659) lots. The main nickel contract continued its downward trend and may continue to oscillate to find the bottom in the short term. The Fed's internal division on a December interest rate cut and the rising dollar index (to 99.6) pressured commodity prices and led to the decline of nickel prices [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was fair, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, there were tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. Downstream nickel - iron prices were falling, and iron mills were mainly in a wait - and - see mode and had a price - pressing mentality. In Indonesia, the November (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price fell by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [2]. - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,000 yuan/ton, a 1,500 - yuan/ton drop from the previous trading day. As prices continued to fall, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 4,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 35,826 (+799) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (+5,604) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,415 yuan/ton and closed at 12,365 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,400 (-44,713) lots, and the open interest was 177,321 (-4,171) lots. The main stainless - steel contract showed a low - level oscillation, with prices oscillating between 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, indicating an initial short - term downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel prices, there were still no signs of a rebound in stainless - steel prices [3]. - Spot prices continued to decline to historical lows, but the market was pessimistic, and trading did not improve significantly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 365 to 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 899.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern remaining. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential nickel price rebounds should be monitored [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is in the consumption off - season, with inventory starting to accumulate and the cost center shifting downwards. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Directory Summaries Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2512 opened at 119,000 yuan/ton and closed at 118,930 yuan/ton, a 0.03% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,848 (-17,400) lots, and the open interest was 112,711 (-4,118) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern with shrinking volume and reducing positions, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Due to weak fundamentals, the rebound momentum was weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, some terminals in the Surigao mining area were still recovering from typhoon weather, and the shipping efficiency was delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron decreased, and iron plants continued to lower their psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the current mainstream premium was +26. The Indonesian government announced a 2026 RKAB quota of 3.19 billion tons, but the actual situation depends on next year's policy changes [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The enthusiasm for spot inquiries improved, and downstream buyers made on - demand purchases. The spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 3,800 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's SHFE nickel warrant volume was 32,694 (870) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,970 (-144) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The inventory is high, and the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential price rebounds. For single - side trading, range - bound operations are recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,470 yuan/ton and closed at 12,475 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,571 (+32,719) lots, and the open interest was 150,646 (-4,171) lots. It showed a narrow - range downward oscillation, similar to the trend of SHFE nickel. Entering the consumption off - season, the stainless - steel inventory showed a slight accumulation trend this week, and the futures market was still at the bottom - grinding stage [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained in a wait - and - see state, and the spot trading was light, with on - demand purchases as the main mode. Affected by the downward shift of the cost center and trading conditions, the spot price continued to explore the bottom. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 (-75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,800 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 290 - 590 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 907.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Due to the arrival of the consumption off - season, inventory accumulation, and the downward shift of the cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, frequent disruptions at the mine end suggest that medium - to - long - term price rebounds should be monitored [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, as demand recovery falls short of expectations, de - stocking is slow, and cost support is weakening, stainless - steel prices are also likely to stay in a low - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 119,780 yuan/ton and closed at 119,380 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 69,912 (-12,952) lots, and the open interest was 114,900 (-2,884) lots. In the past month, it had low volatility with an intraday price amplitude of around 1%, indicating a lack of clear market direction due to macro uncertainties and supply - demand contradictions [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the supply - demand price gap persists. Factory procurement enthusiasm is low. In the Philippines, some ports in the Surigao mining area are still recovering from typhoon impacts, and a new typhoon in the Zambales mining area may delay shipments by about 3 days. Overall, nickel ore supply remains stable. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron factories are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of each brand remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,292 (-241) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 253,404 (+300) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly adopt range - bound operations. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No specific strategies are provided [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,630 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 108,314 (+7,800) lots, and the open interest was 38,421 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high and closing low. Fundamentally, there were few changes. The implementation of upstream production cuts was in doubt, the production of 300 - series stainless steel remained high, downstream demand did not improve, and de - stocking was slow. Coupled with the overall decline of the black - metal sector, stainless - steel prices trended downward in an oscillatory manner [3]. - **Spot**: Market confidence was further hit. Some traders continued to lower their quotes, but there was no improvement in transactions. Due to high previous purchase prices, the price - cut space for traders is expected to be limited. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 310 - 610 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 912.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No specific strategies are provided [3][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, but recent mining disruptions in Indonesia and the Philippines should be monitored for potential price rebounds [4] - For stainless steel, with the end of the consumption peak season, lower - than - expected demand growth, and weakening cost support, the stainless - steel price is expected to stay in low - level oscillations [5] Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,670 yuan/ton and closed at 119,680 yuan/ton, a 0.01% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 82,864 (-9,186) lots, and the open interest was 117,784 (-4,095) lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a low - opening and high - walking oscillatory repair pattern. Affected by macro - sentiment and the metal sector, it rebounded during the day session and slightly closed up. The high - level oscillation of the US dollar index still suppresses nickel prices. The domestic commodity sector rose collectively, and Shanghai nickel rebounded accordingly [2] Nickel Ore - The nickel - ore market trading atmosphere was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and there was a supply - demand price gap. Factory procurement enthusiasm was low [2] - In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area's shipping efficiency was delayed due to continuous rainfall, while the northern mining area had stable local supply. Indonesian November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark prices are expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, with a current mainstream premium of +26 [2] - Due to the rainy season and typhoons, shipping in the southern Surigao area of the Philippines has stopped, and nickel - ore exports are expected to sharply decline from November to December [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premium of each brand did not change [3] - The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 600 yuan/ton to 3,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton [3] - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 32,533 (-101) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,404 (+300) tons [3] Group 4: Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [4] Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,545 yuan/ton and closed at 12,605 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 100,514 (+26,181) lots, and the open interest was 46,429 (-4,171) lots [4] - The main contract of stainless steel showed an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. It rebounded in the afternoon driven by the rise of the black - metal sector [4] Spot - Affected by the futures' stop - falling and rebound, spot inquiries increased, but actual trading activity was still low, and quotes were basically flat [5] - The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 305 - 605 yuan/ton [5] - The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 914.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading are provided [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be under pressure and move weakly in a fluctuating manner. The price may test the previous low support. For nickel trading, the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the unilateral market and sell out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level in the options market. For stainless steel, it is also expected to move weakly in a fluctuating manner, with the strategy of selling on rebounds in the unilateral market and taking a wait - and - see approach in the arbitrage market [5][6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level. LME inventory is 250,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,002 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 37,000 tons, and domestic delivery volume has increased. SMM's six - region social inventory is 49,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,029 tons month - on - month [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Stainless steel social inventory continues to decline. The destocking speed has slowed down, and the price is under pressure [9][18]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Refined Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel output from January to October increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel output in November will remain at a high level of 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 51,100 tons, compared with a net export of 19,700 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to September 2025 was 351,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 58.3% [25]. - **Demand**: The consumption of electroplating and alloy with refined nickel is stable. The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to October increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will also be obvious. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel in October fell below the 50 boom - bust line, with all sub - items below 50 [26][29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials and Supply - Demand - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Due to the rainy season and typhoons in the Philippines, nickel mines have a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the overall high - nickel iron market is weak, and the ability to absorb nickel ore is limited, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat, and the first - round domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased slightly month - on - month, with the full price remaining stable [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI has increased, and the price is under pressure. The profit margin of Chinese NPI has shown certain fluctuations [32][33]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have been continuously weakening. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in November 2025 was 8,495 yuan/50 base tons (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan [39][40]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The estimated cold - rolled cash cost is about 13,250 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 12,750 yuan/ton [42]. - **Supply**: It is estimated that the output of Chinese and Indian stainless - steel crude steel from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output of both China and India increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The output of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 2.3 New Energy - Related Markets - **New Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic Market**: In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new energy passenger - vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44.5% to 985.5 GWh from January to October, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2% in November [60]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The cumulative output of nickel sulfate in China from January to October decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary precursors from January to October decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary cathode materials from January to October increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices affected by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the growth of precursor output was less than expected [67]. - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: The cumulative output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons. The output of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to October decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The cost of MHP has increased, and the price has remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 2.4 Pure Nickel Import and Supply - Demand Balance The large increase in pure nickel imports has led to an obvious domestic surplus [74].