交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 镍价短期震荡难破，供需宽松格局延续 （2025.08.25） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 行情回顾 沪镍价走势 数据来源：博易大师 | | | | 全球镍元素供给及预期(万镍吨) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | | 原生镍总供应 | | 256 | 269 | 306 | 331 | 338 | 369 | | 全球纯银产量 | | 85 | 78 | 81 | 82 | 90 | 99 | | 全球镍铁产量 | | 140 | 169 | 190 | 206 | 205 | 221 | | | NP ...

周四镍价震荡偏弱运行，SMM1#镍报价121100元/吨，+200元/吨；金川镍报122350元/吨，+250元/吨； 电积镍报119950元/吨，+150元/吨。金川镍升水2500元/吨，上涨100。 （8月22日）全国镍价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 型 | | | | 品名:1#镍 ;牌号:Ni9990 ; | 122450元/ | 市场价 | 广东省/广州 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 品名:1#镍 ;牌号:Ni9990 ; | 123000元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海金藏物资公司 | | | 吨 | | | | | 品名:1#镍 ;牌号:Ni9990 ; | 120600元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市 | | | 吨 | | | 场 | | 品名:1#镍 ;牌号:Ni9990 ; | 121050元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海有色金属交易中心 | | | 吨 | | | | | 镍钴总量≥(%): 99.96;品 ...

镍与不锈钢日评20250822:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 119700.00 | 119930.00 | 121000.00 | -230.00 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 119830.00 | 120060.00 | 121200.00 | -230.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | -270.00 | 收盘价 | 120030.00 | 120300.00 | 121340.00 | | | | | 120290.00 | 120510.00 | -220.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 121530.00 | 1 | 119830.00 | 119930.00 | 121200.00 | -100.00 | ...

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 120,330 yuan/ton and closed at 119,930 yuan/ton, a change of -0.48% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 63,676 lots and an open interest of 50,856 lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel switched to the 2510 contract. The night session opened flat at 120,430 yuan/ton, fluctuating between 120,200 - 121,080 yuan/ton. Affected by weak new - energy demand and stainless - steel inventory pressure, it failed to break through the key resistance level of 121,000 yuan/ton. The night session closed down 0.33% at 120,450 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,118 lots, about 15% less than the previous day. The day session briefly rose to 120,940 yuan/ton but then fell to an intraday low of 119,620 yuan/ton due to increased domestic inventory and the continued decline of LME nickel. The final closing price dropped to 120,060 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots, about 23% more than the night session. LME nickel fell 0.73% and 0.60% on August 19 and 20 respectively, reaching a two - week low of 15,060 US dollars/ton [2] - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the nickel ore price is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly 32 US dollars. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, but iron plants are still in losses and are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in August decreased slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second phase of August to decline [3] - In July 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 38,164 tons, a 124% increase from the previous month and a 703% increase from the same period last year. Among them, the imports of other unwrought non - alloy nickel were 35,506 tons, accounting for 93% of the refined nickel imports. Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was fair. The spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable, with a slight increase in the spot premiums of Jinchuan and Russian nickel [3] Strategy - In the short term, nickel prices will be weak, with large inventory pressure and a significant increase in imports. In the medium term, the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,925 yuan/ton and closed at 12,820 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots and an open interest of 135,764 lots [5] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,000 yuan/ton in the night session, then quickly dropped to an intraday low of 12,855 yuan/ton due to the decline of LME nickel, and finally closed down 140 yuan at 12,885 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.07%, with a trading volume of 134,000 lots, about 18% more than the previous day. The night session showed the characteristic of short - side active position - increasing, and the net short positions of the top 20 seats increased to 11,449 lots. The day session briefly rebounded to 12,895 yuan/ton but then fell again due to the accumulation of stainless - steel social inventory and the expectation of the release of Indonesian nickel ore quotas. The final closing price dropped to 12,820 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.50%, with a trading volume of 149,700 lots, a five - day high. The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,215 tons to 44,298 tons, a decline of 4.76% [6] - The spot market trading of stainless steel is increasingly light, mainly concentrated on low - price resources. Affected by the decline of the futures market and the completion of downstream restocking, there is a strong bearish sentiment in the future market. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,050 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is also 13,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 310 - 510 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [6] Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand and no fundamental change in the fundamentals, it is expected that the stainless - steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-20 多空博弈激烈，沪镍不锈钢震荡走弱 镍品种 2025-08-19日沪镍主力合约2509开于120490元/吨，收于120330元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.37%，当日成交量 为63677手，持仓量为55967手。 期货方面：沪镍主力即将更换至2510合约，今日主力合约夜盘开盘后快速冲高至 121,450 元 / 吨，但未能站稳高 位，随后回落至 120,140 元 / 吨，最终收于 120,340 元 / 吨，较前日结算价下跌 350 元，跌幅 0.29%。成交量 78,139 手，持仓量 62,507 手，显示夜盘交易活跃度较高，但持仓量未显著增加，多空资金博弈后选择离场。日盘延续弱 势，开盘价 120,490 元，最高价 120,950 元，最低价 120,050 元，最终收于 120,330 元，下跌 450 元，跌幅 0.37%。 成交量 63,677 手，持仓量减少至 55,967 手，较夜盘减少 6,540 手，资金离场迹象明显。8 月 18 日 LME 镍价收 于 15,095 美元 / 吨，下跌 0.66%，8 月 19 日进一步跌至 15, ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's nickel industry is experiencing a profound internal contradiction, with nickel exports surpassing coal for the first time, marking a peak in the country's mineral downstream integration strategy initiated in 2014. However, the world's largest nickel producer, Tsingshan Holding, has paused some nickel smelting lines due to global oversupply and profit pressure, indicating structural risks in Indonesia's nickel-centric industrial strategy [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Nickel Industry Dynamics - In H1 2025, Indonesia's nickel export value reached $16.5 billion, exceeding coal's $14.4 billion, making nickel the largest export commodity [3]. - The success of Indonesia's nickel industry, driven by a decade-long integration strategy, has led to a saturation point in value growth, prompting the government to accelerate a complex industrial transformation towards a complete new energy industry chain [4][6]. - The government plans to reduce nickel ore production quotas from 272 million tons to 150 million tons by 2025 to stabilize prices and encourage investment in high-value products like nickel hydroxide and nickel sulfate [16]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Economic Transition - Indonesia's manufacturing sector has been underperforming, contributing only 19% to employment in 2023, significantly lower than manufacturing-led countries like Vietnam, raising concerns about falling into a "middle-income trap" [9][10]. - The "Making Indonesia 4.0" strategy aims to increase manufacturing's GDP contribution from under 20% to 25% by 2030, focusing on automotive, electronics, chemicals, textiles, and food and beverage sectors [11]. - The strategy seeks to replicate and upgrade the successful model established in the nickel industry, leveraging Indonesia's resource advantages to attract foreign investment in downstream processing [12][14]. Group 3: Electric Vehicle Market Growth - The electric vehicle market in Indonesia is experiencing explosive growth, with domestic EV sales soaring by 215.2% in H1 2025, and BYD leading with a market share of nearly 39% [23][24]. - The government aims to have 1.3 million electric two-wheelers on the road by 2030, contributing 5-8 GWh of battery demand annually [28]. - The RUPTL plan outlines a target of adding 10.3 GW of battery storage capacity, creating a significant market for energy storage solutions [29]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Investment Challenges - Indonesia's aging infrastructure poses significant challenges, with the national grid unable to effectively absorb renewable energy from remote areas, necessitating the construction of nearly 48,000 kilometers of new transmission lines [37]. - The unique "Indonesian model" requires companies bringing foreign capital to also build infrastructure, leading to high upfront capital expenditures and creating barriers for smaller participants [38]. - The establishment of the INA sovereign wealth fund is seen as a key player in reducing project risks for foreign investments, signaling a shift towards a more favorable financing environment for emerging industries [39]. Group 5: ESG Considerations and Future Outlook - Indonesia's green energy transition heavily relies on high-carbon coal power, raising significant ESG risks that could impact product marketability in regions with strict carbon footprint regulations [46]. - Collaborative projects, such as the one between Greeenme and Vale, aim to establish environmentally friendly nickel processing facilities, aligning with global ESG standards [47]. - Despite challenges, Indonesia is on track to create a complete lithium battery ecosystem, encompassing upstream resource extraction, midstream material refining, and downstream battery manufacturing, positioning itself as a critical player in the global battery industry [40][49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and with the decline in liquidity during the delivery month, nickel prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel variety, domestic stainless - steel production remains at a high level. Although the downstream stainless - steel inventory has decreased week - on - week, the real - estate industry is sluggish, and the manufacturing industries such as home appliances and automobiles mainly make purchases based on rigid demand, making it difficult to support price rebounds [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 opened at 120,710 yuan/ton and closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, a - 0.29% change from the previous trading day's close. Affected by the rise in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small rally but failed to break through the 121,000 yuan/ton resistance level. Due to the approaching delivery month, market liquidity declined, and the price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 120,500 - 120,800 yuan/ton, finally closing near 120,600 yuan/ton, a slight 0.12% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 5 - day low of 120,140 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 120,700 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, indicating insufficient bullish power [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market was calm on the day, with prices stable. In the Philippines, 1.3% nickel - ore resources in September were traded at FOB 29 - 32, and there were differences in ore - end prices. Although the loss situation of downstream iron plants has improved, they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel - ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the August (second - phase) nickel - ore domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the August (second - phase) premium to decline due to thin profits [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,600 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak on the day, and downstream enterprises were still in a wait - and - see mood, with general refined - nickel spot trading. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 23,051 (910.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 210,414 (- 1,248) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly adopt range - bound operations. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [2]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 13,015 yuan/ton and closed at 13,010 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small dip to around 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons week - on - week to 1.079 million tons, concerns about high - supply pressure dominated the sentiment. The price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 12,980 - 13,020 yuan/ton, finally closing at 13,010 yuan/ton, a 0.15% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume shrank to 46,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by about 2,000 lots, indicating reduced capital participation. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 3 - day low of 12,965 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 13,010 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, showing insufficient bullish power [3]. - **Spot**: Although some traders tentatively raised prices in the morning, downstream acceptance of high prices was still low, with few actual transactions. As the futures market declined, the spot price basically returned to last week's level in the afternoon, with little overall fluctuation. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 345 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 926.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Under the fundamental logic, it fluctuates in a narrow range, and the long - term logic is under pressure. However, there are frequent events in Indonesia, so be vigilant against the risk of news - driven stimulation [4]. - Stainless steel: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated, and the steel price fluctuates [5]. - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories [34]. - Polysilicon: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips [35]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply is weak while demand is strong, and the price is strengthening [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The marginal operation of the fundamentals is relatively stable. The global refined nickel's visible inventory shows a gentle increase, dragging down the upper limit of nickel prices. The long - term low - cost supply increment may change the cost curve pattern. In the short - term and the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation may be at the window boundary of the ferronickel conversion path. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, slightly boosting the upper limit of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The overall decline of the ore price is relatively mild, and the support has weakened slightly, but it is still difficult for the price to fall sharply. The hype of nickel ore contradictions may decrease, limiting the elasticity of nickel prices [4]. - **Market News Impact**: Indonesia may crack down on illegal mining, change the RKAB approval cycle, and re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula. These events increase the risk of short - selling at low levels and add uncertainty to the nickel price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,963 tons to 41,286 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons [6][7]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated. The long - side logic focuses on the decline of inventory at a high level, the reduction of factory inventory pressure in July, and the potential reduction in supply due to policy tightening. The short - side logic comes from the actual supply - demand situation, where the alleviation of pressure needs to be continuous, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Social inventory has declined slightly for five consecutive weeks, and the factory inventory pressure in July has decreased. The stainless steel production in August is 3.25 million tons, with a marginal increase. The production in Indonesia in August is 420,000 tons [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated this week, and the spot price increased. The futures price first rose, then fell, and then rose again, influenced by other varieties and macro - sentiment. The spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia increased [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. Factories in the southwest and northwest regions had some resumptions, but the rhythm was slow. On the demand side, the short - term demand of downstream industries increased marginally, with the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supporting consumption [31][32]. - **Market Outlook**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large - scale resumption, the futures price may follow the coking coal futures, but the long - term fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high levels and take profits at low levels [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated widely this week, showing a relatively strong trend overall. The spot market had some transactions, but the price did not show obvious improvement [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production remained at a high level, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand from the silicon wafer side improved, and the production in August increased slightly compared with July [32][33]. - **Market Outlook**: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips. The spot market's signing is approaching the end, and the terminal demand may decrease in September. It is recommended to take profit on the PS2511 - PS2512 inter - period positive spread and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price increased significantly, and the spot price also rose. The SMM basis and the spread between contracts changed accordingly [54]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, production in Jiangxi and Qinghai was affected, and there were concerns about future production. On the demand side, the downstream production demand in August improved significantly. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the number of futures warrants increased [55]. - **Market Outlook**: Due to supply disturbances, the lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month. If the downstream demand in September strengthens, the price will continue to be strong. The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [56][57].

Group 1 - The nickel market is experiencing a mix of bullish and bearish factors, leading to a strong fluctuation in prices [1] - Bullish factors include rising demand from the new energy sector and increased demand from some downstream precursor manufacturers, resulting in stable transactions [1] - Bearish factors consist of high nickel ore inventories, a clear supply-demand imbalance, and weakening demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors due to increased supply from Indonesia [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a decline in the dollar and an uplift in domestic liquidity, which boosts demand expectations [1] - Despite the support at the lower end of the nickel price range, the overall market remains volatile [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel market: The expectation of nickel surplus persists, with general spot trading. Downstream demand has increased slightly overall due to the rise in stainless - steel production in August. The supply side has also seen a slight increase month - on - month, resulting in a slow increase in inventory. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro - situation [6]. - Stainless - steel market: The global economic outlook and tariff policy changes still affect the external demand for stainless steel, and the Fed's decisions also influence the macro - atmosphere. Stainless - steel prices lack upward demand drivers but are supported by costs at the bottom, so they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Slow Accumulation - Global visible inventory stands at 258,000 tons, including 211,000 tons in LME inventory, 27,000 tons in SHFE inventory, and 41,000 tons in SMM's six - location social inventory [11]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Reduction - Steel mills have fine - tuned the arrival volume of goods in the spot market, with limited new supplies. Social inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Some steel mills that had centralized maintenance in August have announced复产 plans [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the cumulative production of refined nickel increased by 40% year - on - year to 229,000 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in August will be 32,500 tons, a slight increase of 1% month - on - month. In the first six months of 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 5,093 tons, compared with a net export of 922 tons in the same period last year [23]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 3% year - on - year to 170,000 tons. In July, the downstream demand for nickel improved, and the PMI of the nickel downstream industry returned to the 50 boom - bust line, mainly driven by the recovery of stainless steel. The demand for electroplating and alloys remained stable, while that for batteries declined slightly [27]. 3.2.2 Stainless - Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore has stabilized. The rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and nickel mines are showing a strong price - holding sentiment. Some mines have reported higher FOB prices for September shipments. In Indonesia, the premium for domestic nickel ore in August remained at HPM + 24 (excluding rewards) [29]. - **NPI**: The NPI price has rebounded following the stainless - steel market. The latest transaction price of NPI has risen above 950 yuan per nickel point, and the raw material side is relatively strong [8]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have remained stable for a long time. In August 2025, Tsingshan Group's long - term contract purchase price for high - carbon ferrochrome was 7,995 yuan per 50 - base ton (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a decrease of 100 yuan per 50 - base ton compared with July [36]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: The cold - rolled cost has increased. Taking high - nickel iron at 950 yuan per nickel point and high - carbon ferrochrome at 8,150 yuan per 50 - base ton as an example, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 13,300 yuan per ton [39]. 3.2.3 Stainless - Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the combined stainless - steel crude steel production in China and India was 25.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In August, production in Indonesia resumed, and domestic production remained basically flat. The planned production increased by 30,000 tons compared with July and remained at a high level [47]. - **Demand**: The production plan of white - goods has declined, while the shipbuilding industry provides support. In the first six months of 2025, China's stainless - steel import volume was 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25%, and the export volume was 2.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The net export volume was 1.673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33% [47]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Sales**: From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles from August 1 - 10 were 262,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales was 57.9% [56]. - **Overseas Market**: From January to June 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million. In the US, sales increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000, and in Europe, sales increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million [60]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to July, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 17.4% year - on - year to 182,000 tons. The production of ternary precursors decreased by 3% year - on - year to 462,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 8% year - on - year to 420,000 tons [62]. - **Raw Materials**: From January to July, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 57% year - on - year to 243,000 tons, while high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 39% year - on - year to 98,000 tons [64]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance - In July, the shortage of primary nickel narrowed, while pure nickel remained in surplus [65].