1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For nickel, the market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals, and it will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation. For stainless steel, it will follow the nickel price trend and also maintain an oscillatory state due to the influence of macro and policy factors [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 134,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 290,411 (- 45,931) lots, and the open interest was 164,700 (- 11,544) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policywise, the Indonesian export tax and nickel ore quota are still uncertain, but they support the price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the nickel ore shortage continues, and the price of nickel ore is expected to rise. The supply of nickel iron and refined nickel is sufficient, but the cost is stably supported. The production of MHP is hindered, and the price remains strong. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, providing stable demand support. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles meet expectations, but it is in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement. Ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand, while downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - According to Mysteel, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore still has room to rise, and the RKAB quota approval progress is slow. The premium of the mainstream pyrometallurgical ore plants is likely to remain stable next month, and some may increase by 1 - 2 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade ore price still has upward momentum. The price of Philippine nickel ore is weakening, and the traders' quotes are loosening. The 1.3% grade is quoted at 48 - 50 dollars/wet ton, and the CIF receiving price of the 1.4% grade is 71 dollars. Ocean freight may continue to decline, and the cost - side pressure is marginally relieved [2] - The Shanghai nickel price oscillated weakly during the day, and the center of the refined nickel spot price moved slightly downward. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, while that of other brands remained stable, with sufficient overall supply. Market trading became lighter, and downstream enterprises only made rigid - demand purchases, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to chase high prices. The implementation of the Indonesian export tax is uncertain, the cost support at the ore end is stable, the domestic refined nickel production is at a high level, and the spot resources are sufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 1,000 yuan/ton to 3,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,858 (+ 685) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 281,526 (- 48) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel will likely maintain a range - bound oscillation. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is to conduct range - based operations. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main stainless - steel contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,510 (- 1,569) lots, and the open interest was 97,783 (- 4,171) lots [3] - Stainless - steel prices mainly follow the nickel price trend and are greatly affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. On the supply side, steel mills maintain high production plans. According to Mysteel statistics, the estimated crude - steel production of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants in March 2026 was 3.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9895 million tons, an increase of 36.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The planned production in April is 3.6847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream demand is stable, but it is mainly on - demand procurement without stockpiling. In April, consumption is expected to continue to recover, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices [4] - Although the futures market has weakened, the stainless - steel spot market is generally stable, and traders' quotes mostly remain unchanged. Downstream terminals maintain rigid - demand purchases. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless - steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillatory state. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is neutral. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated March 31, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Inventory accumulation is slowing, and the ore end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [2][5] Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,120, with various changes in other indicators like volume and prices of related products [5] - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,370, with corresponding changes in volume and other related prices [5] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore as a new revenue source for the mining industry [5] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala [6] - Indonesia's approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons [7] - Philippine miners expect the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore to double [8] Inventory Tracking - On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons, while LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [11] - On March 26, SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons [11] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2][14] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 171,620, with changes in volume, open interest, and other related indicators [15] Macro and Industry News - Germany's federal government passed a climate protection plan, adding €8 billion in the next 4 years to achieve emission reduction goals [16] - The International Civil Aviation Organization issued new regulations on lithium - battery power banks [17] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption of production by upstream enterprises [2][19] - Polysilicon: Continue to oscillate and bottom - out [2][19] Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price was 8,480 yuan/ton, with changes in volume, open interest, and other related indicators [19] - For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price was 36,550 yuan/ton, with corresponding changes in volume and open interest [19] Macro and Industry News - The Cambodian government significantly reduced customs import and export taxes on various commodities, including solar systems and new - energy vehicles [19][21] Group 5: Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [12] - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [17] - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [21]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures, dated March 30, 2026 [1] Industry and Product Ratings - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows marginally, and the ore end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][4] - Stainless steel: Demand and cost are in a game, and steel prices fluctuate [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: Ore - end situations are fermenting, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment [2][14] - Industrial silicon: The upside space is limited [2][17] - Polysilicon: In a pattern of bottom - seeking through fluctuations [2][18] Core Views - Different commodities in the green finance and new energy fields have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, nickel is affected by ore - end cost and inventory, stainless steel by demand - cost game, lithium carbonate by ore - end situations and market sentiment, industrial silicon by limited upside space, and polysilicon by a bottom - seeking pattern [2] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,100 yuan, with a change compared to different time periods (e.g., +3,940 yuan compared to T - 5). The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 316,027 lots, showing a decrease of 96,279 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,390 yuan, and the trading volume was 177,353 lots [5] News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore. The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. ESDM has relevant production quota information, and there are also events such as mine accidents and company sanctions in Indonesia [5][6][8][9] Inventory - On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons [11] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [12] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, with corresponding changes in trading volume and open interest compared to different time periods. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan, showing price changes over different time intervals [14] News - Ford recalls 254,640 cars in the US. The escalation of the Middle East conflict leads to a shortage of natural gas supply in India, affecting the automotive industry [15][16] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2605 contract for industrial silicon was 8,625 yuan/ton, and for the PS2605 contract of polysilicon was 35,680 yuan/ton. There are corresponding data on trading volume, open interest, basis, price, and profit for both [18] News - Xinjiang holds a symposium on intellectual property protection in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to promote the in - depth integration of intellectual property protection and industrial innovation in the photovoltaic industry [18] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel and stainless - steel prices fluctuate widely this week. Policy disturbances push prices up mid - week, but limited breakthrough power due to macro - level impacts causes prices to decline again. The situation of the US - Iran war eases, and some traders bet on a near - term cease - fire. The Indonesian tax policy is still under discussion, and if implemented, it will strengthen the bottom space of the nickel industry chain. [3] - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless - steel futures is mainly influenced by macro factors and Indonesian policies. There is strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel due to the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season expectation. In the long - term, the trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, with Indonesian supply and new - energy demand being key factors. [4][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The nickel and stainless - steel markets show wide - range fluctuations. Policy disturbances and macro - level impacts are the main factors. The Indonesian tax policy and RKAB quota approval are important variables. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron shows different trends, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. [3] - The near - term trading logic is affected by macro and Indonesian policies, with strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel. The long - term trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, and new - energy demand may increase. [4][7] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and calendar - spread strategies of nickel and stainless - steel show no obvious arbitrage opportunities currently. [9] - The past trading strategies include buying and selling different nickel futures contracts and options, some of which have been closed with profits. [9] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, the price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 15,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. Risk - management strategies include shorting futures and options for inventory management and buying futures and options for procurement management. [10] - For stainless steel, the price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.48% and a historical percentile of 36.6%. Similar risk - management strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management. [11] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **Likely Positive Information**: Downstream stainless - steel demand recovers and inventory decreases. ESDM estimates the first - quarter approval quota to be 100 million tons, and plans to add tax - payment progress to the RKAB approval process. [12] - **Likely Negative Information**: The US dollar index strengthens, suppressing the metal market. The Fed's interest - rate hike expectation rises, and the implementation of the Indonesian nickel product windfall tax and export tax is postponed. [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures show a strong trend this week. The price once reaches 138,000, but then drops due to macro - level suppression. The fundamentals have peak - season expectations, with inventory and warehouse receipts decreasing, and stainless - steel downstream production increasing. The cash market shows price stability and strong demand recovery. [13] - The net positions of key profitable seats in nickel decrease, with more long - position liquidation during the upward movement. For stainless steel, trading volume and open interest increase during the mid - week recovery, and there are opportunities to go long at low prices considering the peak - season expectation. [14] - There are no obvious changes in the basis and calendar - spread structures of nickel and stainless - steel, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. [21] - **International Market**: The international market leads the domestic market, and the price hovers around 17,300. Indonesian policy disturbances have a stronger impact on the domestic market sentiment, while macro - level suppression is first reflected in the international market. There are frequent arbitrage opportunities between the domestic and international markets. The inventory of LME nickel decreases due to changes in delivery brands. [27] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the current downward range, the profit pressure of the nickel industry chain decreases after the disk rebound. The profit of integrated production of electrowon nickel from intermediates is high, the profit of pyrometallurgical production lines is still in a game, and the profit of nickel iron is also repaired. The price of upstream nickel ore is firm, and the downstream stainless - steel industry tries to lower raw - material prices. The profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel in the new - energy sector shrinks, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rises. [40] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain fluctuates more recently. Nickel ore production and shipment in Indonesia and the Philippines increase after the rainy season. ESDM expects to approve about 100 million tons of quotas in the first quarter, and the bottom support of nickel ore remains. The supply of nickel iron is expected to increase, but the domestic nickel - iron production is at a historical low due to cost competition. The supply of new - energy and intermediate products may decrease in the short - and medium - term. [42][43] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The valuation of nickel and stainless - steel is rising and adjusting. After the festival, upstream producers hold back supply and raise prices, and downstream demand in March and April is increasing. The new - energy chain shows a stable and strong price, with no obvious increase in marginal demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate. There is an expectation of battery export rush in April, but it has not fully affected the demand for nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly, and downstream demand is expected to increase in March and April. [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The price of Shanghai nickel has support from the cost of nickel ore due to Indonesian policies but is suppressed by the macro - situation and supply - demand pattern, making it difficult to have a definite one - way market. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [1][4]. - The stainless steel price is mainly affected by the nickel price. The supply growth expectation is stronger than the demand side, but there is still cost support. It is expected to follow the nickel price trend and maintain a shock in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 138,750 yuan/ton and closed at 135,860 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.41% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 412,306 (-48,075) lots, and the open interest was 179,895 (-8,929) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, and the inventory at home and abroad is increasing, with sufficient market supply. The demand side has stable support as stainless steel mills' profits improve and production resumes after the festival, and new - energy vehicle production and sales meet expectations but are in the off - season with limited month - on - month improvement. Also, the Middle - East situation affects sulfur supply and raises the production cost of nickel [1]. News - Nickel Industries Limited's Indonesian Hengjaya Mine has suspended operations due to a personnel casualty accident. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister may relax the production targets of coal and nickel in 2026. The US Department of Defense is formulating a military plan against Iran. The news has mixed impacts on nickel, mainly suppressing it [2]. - In Indonesia, nickel ore supply is tightening, and the operation uncertainty on the Big K Island increases due to the mine accident and the approaching rainy season. In the Philippines, the nickel ore quotation is firm, with the 1.3% ore CIF quoted at $65/wet ton [2]. Spot - The nickel price is strongly running during the day, but the spot trading is average. The market has shifted to the 2605 contract. The premium of Jinchuan nickel has dropped significantly due to cost reduction, and other brands have also slightly declined. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,593 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,240 (-216) tons [3]. Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel is expected to maintain an interval shock. The unilateral strategy is mainly interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened and closed at 14,390 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 183,602 (-38,355) lots, and the open interest was 120,397 (-4,171) lots [5]. - The stainless steel price is mainly affected by the nickel price. In terms of fundamentals, the total domestic stainless steel crude steel production in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The consumption in March is in a slow recovery process, and it is expected to continue to pick up in April, which provides bottom support for the price [5]. - Driven by the high - level operation of the futures market, the confidence in the spot market has recovered, and the inquiry and trading activity have increased. However, the downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and the spot price increase is relatively moderate. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 14,500 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 14,450 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 130 - 330 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - The short - term stainless steel is expected to follow the nickel price trend and maintain a shock. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The price of Shanghai nickel has support from Indonesian policy on the downside and is suppressed by the macro and supply - demand pattern on the upside, making it difficult to have a definite one - way market. Stainless steel prices are still mainly affected by nickel prices and are expected to remain volatile [2][4][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 25, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 133,920 yuan/ton and closed at 136,130 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 460,381 (+18,036) lots, and the open interest was 188,824 (+7,678) lots [2] - The nickel market is in a game state between policy and fundamentals. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, resulting in tight supply at the ore end, providing long - term support. Fundamentally, the supply side production continues to rise, and inventories at home and abroad are continuously increasing, with sufficient market supply. The demand side has stable support as stainless steel mills' profits improve and production resumes after the festival, and new energy vehicle production and sales meet expectations, but it is in the off - season of consumption with limited环比 improvement. The Middle East situation affects sulfur supply, raising the production cost of nickel [2] Macro and Supply - related Information - The US President Trump proposed a 15 - point cease - fire plan to Iran through a third - party, suspending the attack on Iranian energy facilities until March 27 and planning a one - month cease - fire negotiation period, but Iran denied the negotiation and refused the proposal. There may be a sign of easing in the geopolitical conflict, leading to a collective rebound in the non - ferrous metals sector. The Indonesian Finance Minister said that President Prabowo approved the levy of tariffs on coal and nickel exports on Wednesday, and the specific tax rate is still under discussion [3] - According to Mysteel, the nickel ore price in the Philippines is firm. Affected by the rising oil price in the Middle East, which pushes up the mining and transportation costs, the fluctuation of freight rates, and the weak procurement of iron plants, the ore price remains stable. The negotiation focus of Indonesian nickel ore has shifted upward. The RKAB quota approval is slow, about 160 million wet tons have been approved, the premium of domestic trade ore has strengthened, the premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore has reached $45 - 50/wet ton, and the mine plans to raise the premium next month [3] Spot Market - Affected by Indonesian policies, the spot price quotation has strengthened, but downstream enterprises are still waiting and watching, entering the market for procurement cautiously, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. The premium and discount quotations are slightly adjusted with the disk, but the fluctuation is not large. The premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 6,150 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,605 (-401) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,456 (-432) tons [3] Strategy - Recently, Shanghai nickel has shown strong resilience, maintaining a wide - range shock pattern in a macro - bearish environment, mainly due to the long - term support brought by the supply constraint of Indonesian ore. There are obvious differences between long and short positions. It is expected to remain in the range - shock state in the short term. The strategy is mainly range operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 25, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,290 yuan/ton and closed at 14,490 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 221,957 (-40,266) lots, and the open interest was 126,755 (-4,171) lots [4][5] - The price trend of stainless steel is still mainly affected by nickel prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the crude steel production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, increasing the supply pressure, and the operating rate of stainless steel plants remains high with sufficient production. On the consumption side, consumption is not good after the Spring Festival, social inventories continue to accumulate, suppressing price rebounds. Although there is an expectation of the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, short - term demand is difficult to improve significantly [5] Spot Market - The strengthening of the futures disk has driven the inquiry and transaction of stainless steel spot to pick up. Traders' quotations have slightly increased, but downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and the overall spot price fluctuation is limited. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+50) yuan/ton, the stainless steel price in the Foshan market is 14,350 (+50) yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of 304/2B is 125 to 325 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [5] Strategy - Fundamentally, the supply growth expectation is stronger than the demand side, but there is still cost support. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of the stainless steel trend. In the short term, stainless steel will still follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain a shock. The strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated March 26, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - For nickel, there are contradictions and differences between the macro and the ore end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified; for stainless steel, it is suppressed by overseas macro factors while supported by the actual cost [2][4] Fundamental Data - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,130, with a change of 2,650 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,490, with a change of 200 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 460,381, and that of the stainless steel main contract was 295,952 [4] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 134,700, the Russian nickel premium was - 250, and the nickel bean premium was 500. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,083, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 264 [4] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [4] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [5] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons, and PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota is reduced by 70% compared to 2025 [7][9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [11] 2. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Attention should be paid to the actual demand [12] Fundamental Data - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 159,120, with a change of 6,180 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 233,304, and the open interest was 251,957 [14] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,500 [14] Macro and Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a seminar on the construction of the new - energy vehicle waste power battery recycling system [15] - Wengfu Group raised the ex - factory price of wet - process 85 phosphoric acid by 500 yuan/ton on March 25, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 1,200 yuan/ton in March [16] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [16] 3. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the boost from news; polysilicon is in a state of bottom - seeking oscillation [17][18] Fundamental Data - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,770, with a change of 165 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 217,959, and the open interest was 232,078. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 36,750, with a change of 1,020 compared to T - 1 [18] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8,550, the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9,900, and the price of polysilicon N - type re - feed was 40,500 [18] Macro and Industry News - In February 2026, the wind power mechanism electricity price settlement reference price in Shandong Province decreased by 16.64% month - on - month, and the photovoltaic mechanism electricity price settlement reference price decreased by 64.83% month - on - month [19][20] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to macro - level constraints. The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game, with the price supported by Indonesian policy on the lower end and restricted by macro and supply - demand patterns on the upper end. The stainless - steel price is mainly influenced by the nickel price, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 133,100 yuan/ton and closed at 132,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 463,882 (-73,519) lots, and the open interest was 179,706 (6570) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end and providing long - term support. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, inventories at home and abroad are increasing, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand side has stable support as stainless - steel mills' profits improve and production resumes after the festival, and new - energy vehicle production and sales meet expectations, but it is in the off - season with limited month - on - month improvement. The Middle East situation affects sulfur supply and raises nickel production costs [1]. Nickel Ore and Spot - Multiple factors are driving up the raw material cost of nickel ore, and the bargaining focus is still rising. In the Philippines, the tense Middle East situation has driven up international oil prices, leading to a surge in nickel ore shipping costs. In Indonesia, due to Ramadan, the approval of RKAB quotas for nickel ore is slow, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong. The price of wet - process nickel ore on the island is 30 - 32 US dollars/wet ton, and it has risen to 35 - 37 US dollars/wet ton on the outer island. The premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore has risen to 40 - 45 US dollars/wet ton, and mines still intend to raise the premium next month [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere of refined nickel spot is weak, with abundant spot resources in the market. Traders are eager to sell, and some holders maintain low - premium quotes to raise funds, but actual transactions are insufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remains unchanged at 6,550 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,632 (942) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,792 (-720) tons [2]. Strategy - The Shanghai nickel has shown strong resilience recently, maintaining a wide - range oscillation pattern in a macro - bearish environment, mainly due to the long - term support from the supply constraint at the Indonesian ore end. With obvious long - short differences, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,040 yuan/ton and closed at 14,035 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 175,123 (-82,319) lots, and the open interest was 118,436 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel price is mainly influenced by the nickel price. Fundamentally, the total domestic stainless - steel crude steel production in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The supply pressure is gradually emerging as the resumption of work and production accelerates after the festival. On the demand side, the stainless - steel demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season fails to meet expectations, with only rigid demand replenishment from downstream and light transactions. The market consumption in March is in a slow recovery process, and the recovery speed is slower than in previous years. In April, consumption is expected to continue to pick up, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for the price [3][4]. - Steel mill agents have raised quotes, and with the strong performance of the futures market, the stainless - steel spot price has risen. Driven by the "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality, the inquiry and trading activity of downstream terminals has increased. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,300 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 14,300 (+50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 190 to 390 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,084.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The supply growth expectation on the fundamental side is stronger than the demand side, but there is still cost support. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of the stainless - steel trend. In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillation. The strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: There are contradictions and differences between the macro - environment and the mining end, and the short - term long - short game intensifies [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: The cost is on the rise [2][17]. - Polysilicon: The spot price is falling [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 133,160, with a change of 1,610 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,065, with a change of 210 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads are also presented [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection; a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala; the approved nickel - ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons; some companies' production and operations are affected by various factors such as landslides, fuel shortages, and sanctions [4][5][7][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract is 143,860, with a change of 1,260 compared to T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related lithium - salt products are also provided [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Xiaomi's new - generation SU7 locked 15,000 orders in 34 minutes after its release; in 2025, China implemented 190 vehicle recalls, involving 6.846 million vehicles, with a decline in both the number of recalls and the number of affected vehicles compared to the previous year [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,455, with a change of 170 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 37,765, with a change of - 785 compared to T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China's industrial silicon exports were 47,520.111 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 27.44%. The cumulative export volume from January to February was 113,008 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 16.88% [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and the trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1 (weakly bearish) [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is weak with hawkish monetary policies, tense geopolitical situations, and market trading of recession which drags down the non - ferrous sector. However, there is cost support in the industry. For nickel, the supply - demand relationship is tightening marginally due to factors such as supply disruptions and approaching peak demand season. For stainless steel, downstream demand is weak, and the supply may be relatively abundant in April [7][10]. - For nickel trading, wait for the trading logic to switch. Consider buying after the macro - sentiment stabilizes and use protective option strategies. For stainless steel trading, expect weak and volatile prices in the short - term and temporarily hold off on arbitrage [7][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Spread Data - From March 16th to March 20th, the Shanghai - London ratio, spot import profit and loss, LME nickel premium/discount, and various nickel and stainless - steel spreads and premiums showed different changes. For example, the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01 compared to the end of last month, and the spot import profit increased by 397 compared to the end of last week [11]. 1.2 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory - Global visible nickel inventory reached 374,000 tons and started to decline by 187 tons this week. Although domestic inventory increased by 959 tons, LME inventory decreased by 1,146 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained stable, and the supply shortage situation was alleviated [18]. 1.3 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory - The social inventory of stainless steel is being depleted. However, if steel mills maintain high - level production and normal shipments while demand is weak, the supply may be relatively abundant in April [10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Pure Nickel 2.1.1 Production and Import - In January 2026, refined nickel production increased by 26% year - on - year to 37,700 tons, reaching a historical high. In February, it decreased by 5% month - on - month to about 35,800 tons due to the Spring Festival. In March, production is expected to return to normal and reach a new high. From January to February 2026, the net import of refined nickel was 32,900 tons, compared with a net export of 1,543 tons last year [27]. 2.1.2 Consumption - In 2025, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. From January to February 2026, it decreased by 8% year - on - year. The SMM survey showed that the PMI of nickel downstream industries fell below the 50 - point boom - bust line in February. Consumption is expected to rebound significantly in March [31]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore - The price of nickel ore from Indonesia and the Philippines has flattened. The price of high - nickel iron has declined, and domestic nickel - iron factories are cautious in raw material procurement. The supply of domestic nickel ore is tight, and the price is strong [33]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - NPI - The price of NPI is under pressure. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is increasing, and the inventory of NPI in China is at a certain level [35][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Chromium - The price of chromium - based products has increased. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, causing the price of chromium ore to rebound. The long - term procurement price of high - carbon chromium iron by Tsingshan Group in April 2026 increased compared to March [48]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Steel Mill Profits - Steel mills are currently experiencing losses in immediate - term profits. The cost of cold - rolled stainless steel is relatively high, with the estimated cold - rolled cash cost at around 14,850 yuan/ton and the integrated cost at 14,350 yuan/ton [50]. 2.2.5 Supply - The production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia in January - February 2026 was 7.026 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. The import of stainless steel decreased by 26% year - on - year, the export decreased by 35% year - on - year, and the net export decreased by 42% year - on - year [61]. 2.2.6 Demand - The shipbuilding industry is in a boom cycle and provides support for stainless - steel demand. Other terminal industries, especially the real - estate industry, have an unoptimistic growth rate [63]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Vehicle Sales and Battery Production - In February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 694,000 and 796,000 respectively, a year - on - year decline of 21.8% and 14.2%. The production of power cells from January to February increased by 33% year - on - year, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle [70]. 2.3.2 Global Market - In January 2026, global new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 6% year - on - year. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 22.1% year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 25% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, China's new - energy vehicle exports increased by 108% year - on - year [78]. 2.3.3 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Supply and Demand - In 2026, the national subsidy favors mid - to - high - end new - energy vehicles, and the battery capacity per vehicle has increased significantly, which is beneficial to ternary materials and their raw materials. From January to February 2026, the production of sulfuric acid nickel, ternary precursors, and ternary cathode materials in China increased year - on - year [80]. 2.3.4 Intermediate Products - From January to February 2026, the production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 12% year - on - year to 79,000 metal tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 87% year - on - year to 65,700 metal tons [83]. 2.4 Supply - Demand Outlook - The supply - demand situation may improve marginally in mid - to - late March [85].