隔夜伦敦金属交易所（LME）期镍价格飙升超10%，创下2022年以来最大盘中涨幅，一度升至每吨 18545美元，过去两周累计上涨逾20%；上海期货交易所沪镍夜盘同步大涨8%，报147720元/吨。 上下游产业链方面，镍价上涨将直接利好镍矿开采、镍冶炼及镍钴新材料企业，同时对不锈钢、新能源 电池等下游行业成本端形成一定压力，但中长期有利于行业产能优化与结构性调整。 具体公司中，据上市公司公告、互动平台及券商研报表示， 格林美：聚焦新能源电池材料回收与制造，拥有镍资源回收及冶炼产能，业务涵盖电池级硫酸镍等产 品，与下游电池企业建立稳定合作。 分析认为，此次镍价大涨核心逻辑为供给端收缩预期强化。媒体披露，印尼淡水河谷公司因年度工作计 划未获官方批准，已暂停镍矿开采活动。此前印尼镍矿商协会透露，政府计划2026年削减镍矿开采配 额，目标约为2.5亿吨，供给约束预期持续升温。尽管镍市场此前存在供应过剩压力，但印尼作为全球 最大镍供应国，其生产风险上升显著提振市场情绪，叠加投资者买盘推动，金属市场全面上涨。 方正证券表示，淡水河谷印尼暂停镍矿开采及印尼政府配额削减计划，有望加速镍行业供需再平衡。 其认为，2026年全球铜 ...

价格走势趋势分析（以下数据来源长江有色金属网） 沪镍主力合约盘中涨超4%，最高触及135570元/吨，创3月下旬以来新高，为全年交易画上强势句号。 与此同时，电池级硫酸镍同步温和跟涨，中间价28050元/吨，在产业链复苏预期中稳步修复。这场岁末 狂欢的背后，是印尼减产政策的强力催化，更是全球镍市供需格局重构的序幕拉开，2026年镍价将迎来 怎样的变局？ 从冰点到沸点：政策"惊雷"与宏观暖风的共振 镍价在12月上演的"V型"深蹲起跳，是多重时空因素叠加的结果。前半月的阴跌，反映了市场在"美联 储降息"与"中国稳增长"等宏观利好兑现前的观望，以及对镍自身高库存、弱需求的现实担忧。真正的 转折点始于12月17日。这一天，发生了两件决定当月镍市命运的大事： 首先是宏观层面的"发令枪"：美联储如期降息，全球流动性宽松的闸门正式开启，叠加中国经济数据回 暖，为大宗商品提供了系统性向上的金融环境。 更具爆炸性的是产业层面的"核弹"：印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）释放信号，政府计划在2026年将镍矿生 产配额大幅削减约34%。这一消息在12月31日得到进一步强化，印尼能矿部释放了明确的政策收紧信 号。印尼供应着全球近半壁江山的镍 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT Weda Bay Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛， 今年已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷， 包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2）据外媒报道，中国暂停了一项针对从俄罗斯进口的铜和镍的非官方补贴。 3）根据钢联 9 月 22 日资讯，印尼能源和矿产资源部通过矿产和煤炭总局正式对印度尼西亚各地区的 190 家采矿公司实施制裁。暂停是因为这些公司没有按照适用的规定提供索赔和退款担保，尽管之前已经 镍：印尼政策担忧，盘面情绪性补涨 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 进入12月后，镍价先是窄幅震荡后快速下探再迅速拉升，前期产业链过剩压力依然显著，沪镍指数最低 跌破11.2万元/吨，LME镍则跌至14235美元/吨，后续因印尼可能下调明年镍矿产量目标，镍价快速收复 前期跌幅。 印尼镍矿政策存扰动 印尼镍产量在全球占比六至七成，其产业发展政策直接影响全球镍元素供应。近期，随着镍价不断探 底，市场出现一些变化：据印尼镍矿商协会（APNI），政府在2026年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提 出镍矿石产量目标约为2.5亿吨，较2025年RKAB设定的3.79亿吨大幅下降，不过该产量目标仍属于政府 层面的规划，最终实施方式尚不明确，能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）就未来镍矿配额问题还在商议中； 其二，印尼将于2026年1月或2月修订镍价参考公式，重点是将镍的伴生矿产尤其是钴视为独立商品征收 特许权使用费，这一变动将提高镍矿成本。 据Mysteel，进入12月后，国内进口镍矿价格弱势持稳，上周菲律宾Eramen矿山1.4%镍矿成交落地 FOB40，装船出货效率尚可；下游企业多有年前备货需求，对镍矿压价心态或有放缓；海运费持稳， ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 113800 | 1510 01-02月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -200 | -40 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14255 | -40 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 94065 | -11503 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -26857 | -3773 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 253392 | 0 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 44677 | 2169 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 9528 | 0 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 38261 | -432 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 115300 | 550 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 115300 | 450 | | | 上海电解镍:CIF(提单)(日,美元/吨) | 85 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Weiming Environmental Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Weiming Environmental, particularly its operations in the waste incineration sector in Indonesia and its new materials business in nickel smelting [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Indonesian Waste Incineration Project - The Indonesian waste incineration project is set to start construction in Q1 2026 and begin operations in the second half of 2027 [2]. - The project is backed by a presidential decree that clarifies the business model, with the national sovereign fund Danatala holding a 30%-51% stake, and the state electricity company responsible for power purchase [3]. - Local governments will provide land and guarantee a daily supply of at least 1,000 tons of waste [3]. - The profitability of the Indonesian waste incineration market is significantly higher than that of China, with revenue per ton of waste approximately three times that of China [2][5]. - The expected contribution to Weiming Environmental's performance from this project is around 200 million yuan in 2026, assuming nickel prices at 15,000 USD/ton [3][9]. New Materials Business - Weiming Environmental's new materials business focuses on nickel smelting, with 20,000 tons of high-nickel capacity already operational and another 20,000 tons expected to come online in the next two quarters [2][6]. - Sales of high-nickel products exceeded 300 million yuan by Q3 2025, with expectations for production to reach over 30,000 tons in 2026 [7]. - Weiming Shengqing, a subsidiary, has a capacity of 75,000 tons of battery-grade nickel sulfate and has generated over 1 billion yuan in revenue with a net profit of approximately 100 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [8]. Financial Performance and Projections - The waste incineration business has shown steady growth, with a 7.5% increase in waste intake and a 5.11% increase in electricity generation year-on-year as of Q3 2025 [10]. - The company expects annual growth rates of 5%-10% in waste incineration operations due to new project launches and technological optimizations [10]. - The equipment business is also projected to perform well in 2026 due to a significant increase in new orders [11]. Stock Valuation and Market Outlook - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for Weiming Environmental is low, with estimates of 12.7 for 2025 and 10.5 for 2026 [12]. - Recent stock price weakness is attributed to convertible bond redemptions and a major shareholder's impending sell-off, which are expected to resolve after December 17 [12][13]. - Despite these challenges, the investment value of the company remains high due to clear growth catalysts from the Indonesian project and new materials business [13]. Other Important Insights - The Indonesian waste incineration market is projected to reach an operational revenue scale of 29.4 to 36.5 billion yuan in the long term, which is equivalent to half the size of the domestic market [5]. - The company is also exploring strategic partnerships and acquisitions to enhance performance further [10].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View **Likely Positive Factors** - Domestic factories are stocking up before the Chinese New Year, leading to a slight recovery in demand [3]. - The premium of Jinchuan nickel has narrowed to 4,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount has remained stable [3]. **Likely Negative Factors** - High inventory levels persist, and the supply glut remains unchanged [3]. - There are few inquiries in the nickel ore market, demand is sluggish, and prices have stabilized without a clear upward trend [3]. **Trading Advisory View** - It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the short - term impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Market Data** **Nickel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel (SHFE) was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 2,160 yuan or 1.83% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,920 yuan or 1.63% week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 116,060 yuan/ton, down 1,890 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 116,290 yuan/ton, down 1,910 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week [3]. - LME nickel 3M was at 14,610 US dollars/ton, down 360 US dollars or 1.62% week - on - week [3]. - The open interest was 106,302 lots, down 5,283 lots or 4.7% week - on - week; the trading volume was 106,815 lots, down 17,698 lots or 14.21% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 33,939 tons, down 825 tons or 2.37% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan or - 373.33% week - on - week [3]. **Stainless Steel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 12,625 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.28% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 12,695 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan or 0.36% week - on - week [4]. - The trading volume was 69,415 lots, down 32,225 lots or 31.71% week - on - week; the open interest was 64,258 lots, down 21,427 lots or 25.01% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 61,378 tons, down 241 tons or 0.39% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 570 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 21.28% week - on - week [4]. **Nickel Spot** - Jinchuan nickel was at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.21% day - on - day; imported nickel was at 116,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day; 1 electrolytic nickel was at 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; nickel beans were at 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; electrowon nickel was at 116,450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day [4]. **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory was 56,848 tons, up 1,499 tons; LME nickel inventory was 252,852 tons, down 240 tons; stainless steel social inventory was 947,600 tons, up 700 tons; nickel pig iron inventory was 29,346 tons, down 879 tons [6]. **3.2 Market Trends and Charts** - The report includes charts showing the historical trends of nickel futures prices (both domestic and LME), stainless steel futures prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel supply and inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profitability, and stainless steel production and inventory [7][9][11]. **3.3 Industry Chain Analysis** **Upstream Nickel Ore** - The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB) is presented in a historical trend chart, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports is also shown [16]. - The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average landed duty - paid price of Indonesian nickel pig iron (Ni≥14%) are presented in historical trend charts [17]. - The seasonal production volume of nickel iron in China and Indonesia is shown in charts [18][19]. **Downstream Nickel Sulfate** - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel, the profitability of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, and the profitability of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate are presented in historical trend charts [21][23][24]. - The monthly production volume of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown in charts [25]. **Stainless Steel** - The seasonal profitability of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production volume, and inventory are presented in historical trend charts [27][29][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience a short - term weak adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the competition at the 116,000 - yuan mark. The Philippines is in the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. The potential variables of Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes have limited impact on supply recently. The supply of the pure nickel market is under great pressure, while the demand side shows positive trends. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing, and the technical side shows a bearish atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan; the 01 - 02 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,675 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 18,301 lots, an increase of 3,129 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,092 tons, an increase of 564 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 42,508 tons, an increase of 1,726 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,390 tons, an increase of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 33,939 tons, a decrease of 296 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 192.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.7 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,469.71 tons, a decrease of 17.62 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.29 million metal tons, an increase of 0.12 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 90.51 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.73 tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.53 tons, a decrease of 1.23 tons [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects to cut interest rates once next year and will buy short - term bonds worth 40 billion US dollars. Powell said that the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months, the labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected, and it can wait patiently at the current interest rate, and the impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the candidate for the Fed chairman in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].

（来源：财富情报局） 作者：墨舟 编辑：金玉 铜价正发出强劲的看涨信号。 瑞银在其最新矿业研究报告中指出，在全球铜矿生产扰动频繁与新能源需求持续爆发的双重推动下，铜价有望在2026年启动新一轮上涨周期。 该报告进一步指出，2026年铜在供应端面临多重约束，包括铜矿品位下降、新项目投产周期长（超10年）、环保政策趋严等，2026年或出现实质性短缺。 需求端则受益于新能源汽车（单车用铜量为燃油车的3–4倍）、风电、光伏及电网升级的推动，预计到2030年新能源领域将贡献全球铜需求的20%以上。 瑞银预计2026–2027年铜价将保持强势，且长期需维持高位以激励新矿投资。 另外，报告提醒对镍、钴等供应过剩品种保持谨慎，并注意中国在房地产、基建等领域的政策动向可能对短期价格带来的影响。 总体而言，2026年矿业投资应遵循"因品施策"原则：以铜为核心配置，铁矿石需精选个股，镍、钴等则宜等待供需结构改善后的机会，并持续跟踪中国需 求变化与全球能源转型进程。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 除了铜，报告也分析指出，2026年全球矿业将呈现"冰火两重天"局面，不同品种间的供需格局分化显著。瑞银针对主要大宗商品进行了逐一 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：广东电池） 2025年11月24日-11月28日，电池级碳酸锂价格先跌后涨；四氧化三钴价格震荡上涨；硫酸钴、5/6系三 元材料、动力型磷酸铁锂、储能型磷酸铁锂、六氟磷酸锂（国产）、铁锂用/三元动力用/锰酸锂用电解 液、电解铜价格持续上涨；无水磷酸铁、电解铝价格有所上涨；电池级硫酸镍、6/8系三元前驱体价格 持续下跌；5系三元前驱体、动力型锰酸锂价格有所下跌；8系三元材料、钴酸锂、负极材料、隔膜、电 芯价格保持稳定。 | | | | 动力和储能电池产业链生产环节主要材料一周价格变化 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (除特别注明外,数字单位为人民币万元/吨) | | | | | 环节 | 产品 | 11月24日均价 | 11月25日均价 | 11月26日均价 | 11月27日均价 | 11月28日均价 | | | 电池级碳酸锂 | 9.22 | 9.21 | 9.28 | 9. 33 | 9.38 | | 上游原材料 | 四氧化三钻 | 34. 28 | 34. 30 | 34. 50 | 34. 40 ...