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镍日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:17
Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The short - term prices of nickel industry chain products are showing a marginal recovery trend, but the fundamental situation of primary nickel surplus remains unchanged, and prices will be under pressure again after the macro - sentiment fades [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The trading sentiment of the US dollar easing expectation has cooled. China's financial data in July was weak, and the economic outlook remains sluggish. The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2509) fell 1.26% to 121,200 yuan/ton. The off - season characteristics of the spot market are still obvious, with supply exceeding demand and weak trading [8]. - The precipitation in the main production areas of the Philippines in the third quarter has limited impact, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, so the supply of nickel ore is expected to increase, and the price is under downward pressure [8]. - Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, reaching 924.5 yuan/nickel point on the 14th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [8]. - Supported by cost and rigid restocking of precursors, the price of nickel salts continued to rise. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate on the 14th was flat at 27,530 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9][10]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh, which is a step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, achieving similar efficiency with significantly reduced silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs [10]. - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the UK power system and Scotland achieve its energy and emission reduction goals [10].
建信期货镍日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:19
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [3] 2. Core View - The nickel price is expected to rebound under macro - support, but the oversupply fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price may still face pressure after the sentiment fades [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Nickel Price Movement**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly, with the main contract rising 0.67% to 122,440. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel decreased by 50 to 2,150 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply and Price of Nickel Ore**: The impact of precipitation in the main producing areas of the Philippines in the third quarter is limited, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, with a strong expectation of increased nickel ore supply and downward price pressure [8] - **NPI Price**: Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 921.5 yuan/nickel point on the 12th [8] - **Nickel Salt Price**: Supported by cost and rigid restocking of precursors, the nickel salt price continued to rise. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate on the 12th increased by 60 to 27,510 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Indonesian Investment in Nickel Downstream**: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through syndicated loans [9][10] - **Battery Energy Storage Projects** - Bulgaria launched a 124 - megawatt/496.2 - megawatt - hour battery energy storage system [10] - Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the total approved storage capacity exceeding 1.6 gigawatts [10] - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs [10]
南华镍、不锈钢周报-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 00:40
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel and stainless - steel market showed a mainly oscillating trend this week. The influence of the macro - level has weakened, and the cost support of ferronickel is prominent. The support from nickel ore fundamentals has loosened to some extent. In the new energy sector, the prices are relatively firm. It is expected that nickel will oscillate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will oscillate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [2][4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly. It closed at 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4th, and finally closed at 121,180 yuan/ton after oscillating during the week. The main contract of stainless steel had a similar trend, closing at 12,925 yuan/ton on August 4th and 12,985 yuan/ton at the end of the week [2]. 3.2 Industrial Performance - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel maintained a premium at 123,050 yuan/ton with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,440 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP adjusted to - 1.5%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 13,050 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling dropped to around - 3.07%. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron adjusted to 918.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure nickel on the SHFE was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,212 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 954,000 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,415 tons [3]. 3.3 Core Logic - **Macro and News**: The influence of the macro - level has faded, and the short - term supply - demand logic of fundamentals dominates. Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist, and the US dollar index and non - farm payrolls data affect the market. There is an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September [4]. - **Supply - Side**: In the Philippines, the main mining areas are in the seasonal high - production period, with stable production and shipping. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has a slight upward shift, and the premium remains at 24. The benchmark prices of downstream products are differentiated [4]. - **New Energy**: In the long - term, the development of solid - state batteries in the new energy sector meets expectations and is moderately bullish. In the short - term, prices are firm, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment [4]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel has been strongly correcting this week, approaching the 122,000 - yuan level at the beginning of the year. The supply side has a strong willingness to hold prices, and traders generally expect prices to rise and replenish stocks in advance, while downstream steel mills are still waiting and watching [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated strongly this week, and the inventory has decreased in recent weeks. The spot market has tried to increase prices, but the acceptance of high - price resources is limited, and the trading volume has not improved significantly. Some steel mills may increase production in August, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand continues [4]. 3.4 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 37.88%, and the open interest decreased by 17.3% [5][6]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,985 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 29.10%, and the open interest decreased by 18.62% [7]. - **Nickel Spot Price**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel all decreased by 200 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.16% [8]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased by 1,086 tons to 40,572 tons, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,020 tons to 212,232 tons, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 954 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 182 tons to 33,415 tons [9].
瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250805
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 09:24
沪镍产业日报 2025-08-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 120910 | 280 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -110 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15105 | 85 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 90543 | -4924 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -21786 | 1182 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 211254 | 2172 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 25750 | 299 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 15870 | 3558 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 20923 | -247 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 121900 | 650 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122000 | 750 | | | 上海电解镍:CI ...
南华镍、不锈钢周报-20250804
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 00:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, mainly driven by the weakening sentiment in the broader market. The anti - involution sentiment declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and China - US economic and trade talks temporarily suppressed the market. - The price of nickel ore from the Philippines has loosened due to improved rainfall in major mining areas and a seasonal increase in domestic nickel ore arrivals. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has increased, but the improvement in premium is limited. - The price of nickel sulfate remained firm this week. It is currently the restocking period for some precursor factories, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment. - The price of ferronickel continued to correct this week. If ferronickel prices continue to rise, the supply of ice - nickel and pure nickel is expected to decrease, which will strongly support the price increase of ferronickel. - The stainless steel market also showed a weak and volatile trend, but the decline was limited. The cost support of ferronickel has strengthened, and the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station is expected to boost the demand for high - end stainless steel. Stainless steel has been continuously destocked, and spot transactions have improved. Some steel mills may increase production in August. - It is expected that nickel will fluctuate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,850 yuan or 1.52% from the previous week. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [2][4][6]. 3.2. Industrial Performance - **Spot Market**: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 121,850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,370 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP was adjusted to 0%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 12,700 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling decreased to about - 4.74% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 982,700 tons, and the inventory of ferronickel was 33,415 tons. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron was adjusted to 912.5 yuan/nickel point [2]. 3.3. Core Logic - **Nickel**: Affected by the broader market sentiment, the nickel market was under pressure. The improvement in the supply of Philippine nickel ore and the increase in the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price had different impacts on the market. The price of nickel sulfate was firm, and the trend of ferronickel was crucial for the supply of pure nickel [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Although the market was weak, multiple factors limited the decline. The cost support of ferronickel, the expected increase in demand from the hydropower station, and the destocking trend provided some support. The production plans of steel mills in August need to be closely monitored [3]. 3.4. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel and other contracts showed a decline in price, with a decrease in trading volume and a change in open interest and basis [4][5]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The main contract of stainless steel remained stable, while other contracts had slight fluctuations. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis remained unchanged [6]. - **Nickel Spot**: The prices of various nickel products such as Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and electrolytic nickel all declined [7]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased, LME nickel inventory increased, stainless steel social inventory decreased slightly, and ferronickel inventory increased [8].
建信期货镍日报-20250801
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 03:05
Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoint - On the 31st, black - series commodities tumbled, and Shanghai nickel showed weakness, closing below the 120,000 mark again. The main contract 2509 closed down 1.79% at 119,830, with the total open interest of the index increasing by 11,234 to 190,329 lots. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and prices declined again after the cooling of macro - sentiment. The overall surplus pattern of nickel is still significant, and the nickel price is temporarily regarded as weak [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On the 31st, black - series commodities fell generally, and Shanghai nickel was weak. The main 2509 contract closed down 1.79% at 119,830, and the total open interest of the index increased by 11,234 to 190,329 lots [8]. - **Supply - side Situation**: There are expectations of loose supply from the mining ends in the Philippines and Indonesia, and the probability of subsequent decline in ore prices is high. Under the pressure of losses, some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving a slight recovery in the low - level nickel - iron price. On the 31st, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel iron was reported at 912.5 yuan per nickel point, but the acceptance of high - price nickel ore remains low [8]. - **Demand - side Situation**: The stainless - steel market is still weak, in the traditional off - season of consumption with high inventory. As the nickel - iron price rises, some downstream enterprises prefer to purchase scrap stainless steel for production, and the acceptance of high - nickel pig iron prices is also poor. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,370 yuan per ton on the 31st, and it stopped falling and rebounded in the short term supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel salt plants [8]. 2. Industry News - **Indonesian Investment**: Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9][10]. - **Battery Energy Storage**: Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 megawatts/496.2 megawatt - hours. Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, and its approved total energy storage capacity has exceeded 1.6 gigawatts [10]. - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag), achieving nearly the same efficiency while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10].
建信期货镍日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation, with the short - term market dominated by macro logic. The overall oversupply pattern is still significant, and the nickel price is expected to be weak. The upstream nickel ore supply is expected to be loose, the support from iron plants and stainless steel is limited, and the battery - grade nickel sulfate price has rebounded. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The main contract of Shanghai nickel, 2509, closed down 0.85% at 121,800, and the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,705 to 174,585 lots. [7] - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the ore price is likely to fall. [7] - The support from nickel iron plants and the stainless - steel market is limited. The cost of nickel iron plants is high, and some Indonesian production lines have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte. The stainless - steel market is weak due to the traditional off - season and high inventory. [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to rise, reaching 27,370 yuan/ton on the 29th, supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and low inventory of nickel salt plants. [7] 3.2行业要闻 - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry, considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan. [8][10] - Bulgaria has launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. [9] - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and low silver usage, which can significantly reduce production costs. [9] - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with a total approved storage capacity of over 1.6 GW. [9]
建信期货镍日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:25
Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of nickel have not changed significantly. In the short term, the market is dominated by macro - logic. Although each link in the industrial chain has slightly recovered, the overall oversupply pattern is still significant. With high - priced varieties entering adjustment, nickel prices will follow suit. The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel closed down 1.5% at 121,620, and the total index positions decreased by 3,066 to 178,290 lots. After the macro - sentiment cooled down, the price fell and adjusted again [7] - The rainy season in the Philippines is about to end, and the subsequent shipping volume is expected to remain at a high level, with sufficient supply and room for the ore price to fall. In Indonesia, as the subsequent RKAB supplementary quotas are gradually approved, the nickel ore supply is also expected to become loose [7] - The cost of nickel - iron plants remains high. Although the ore price is expected to decline, the current decline is limited and still at a high level. Some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving up the nickel - iron price, but the acceptance of high - priced nickel ore is still low [7] - The performance of stainless steel is still weak. It is in the traditional consumption off - season and the inventory is high, so it is difficult to effectively support the raw material end [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continues to rise. The price is expected to continue to rise slightly due to the rigid restocking demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel - salt plants [7] 2. Industry News - In 2025, the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The low utilization rate of the quota was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. The cost pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry has been increasing due to policies and taxes. The APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance the international reputation of the Indonesian nickel industry [8][10] - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is the first step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10] - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, achieving almost the same efficiency as traditional silver - contact cells while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10][11]
南华镍、不锈钢周报-20250728
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 02:13
Group 1: Report Summary - The Shanghai Nickel main contract showed an overall volatile and upward trend, closing at 124,360 yuan/ton, while the stainless steel main contract also trended upward, closing at 13,030 yuan/ton [2]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Nickel maintained a premium, battery - grade nickel sulfate had an average price of 27,280 yuan/ton, and the profit margins of nickel - stainless steel products showed different trends [2]. Group 2: Core Logic - The Shanghai Nickel futures price was strong during the week but retreated on Friday night due to factors such as anti - involution price guidance. The cost support of nickel - iron has been adjusted [3]. - The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The rainfall in the main mining areas in the Philippines has improved, and the nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia has declined [3]. - The price of nickel sulfate remained stable, and the downstream demand for new - energy nickel salts was weak. The price of nickel - iron continued to decline, and the bottom support of nickel - stainless steel strengthened [3]. - The cost support of stainless steel increased, and the market sentiment was boosted by the production cuts of leading manufacturers. However, the market transactions were mainly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The nickel - stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan for nickel and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan for stainless steel [3]. Group 4: Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 124,360 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 830 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.67% [4]. - The trading volume increased by 51.98% week - on - week, and the open interest increased by 178.0% [4]. Stainless Steel Futures - The latest price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,030 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 100 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1% [5]. - The trading volume increased by 4.36% week - on - week, and the open interest increased by 0.56% [5]. Nickel Spot - The price of Jinchuan Nickel was 125,650 yuan/ton, with no daily change [6]. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,281 tons, a decrease of 57 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - The LME nickel inventory was 203,922 tons, a decrease of 534 tons [7]. Stainless Steel Inventory - The stainless steel social inventory was 967,400 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons [7].
镍、不锈钢:日内延续震荡走势
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The nickel ore support weakened due to the increase in the inventory of nickel ore arriving from the Philippines, and the second - stage nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased, mainly affected by weak downstream demand. The transaction price of ferronickel continued to decline, affected by the negative feedback from the stainless - steel industry, and iron plants suffered serious losses. Stainless steel also continued to fluctuate, with cost support weakening, and some large manufacturers entered the production - cut cycle again. The new - energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent cooperation between Indonesia and the United States after they reached a tariff agreement [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the continued cobalt - mine ban in Congo, Jinhai's entry into the production - cut cycle, Indonesia's shortening of the nickel - ore quota license period from three years to one year, and potential impacts on the nickel industry chain from the Indonesia - US tariff negotiation. Negative factors include high pure - nickel inventory, stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow de - stocking, and deepening contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain with an unchanged oversupply situation [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Shanghai Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2) [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about rising raw - material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the disk (strategy level 3); sell put options (strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (strategy level 3) [3]. 3.2. Nickel and Stainless - Steel Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest value of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 120,550 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,710 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; the continuous - two contract is 120,820 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the continuous - three contract is 120,970 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The LME nickel 3M is 15,215 US dollars/ton, up 1.02%. The trading volume is 131,554 lots, and the open interest is 54,128 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,555 tons, up 1.22%. The basis of the main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 77.8% [8]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest value of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the continuous - two contract is 12,740 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; the continuous - three contract is 12,735 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The trading volume is 151,703 lots, and the open interest is 100,817 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 110,991 tons, down 0.05%. The basis of the main contract is 375 yuan/ton, up 5.63% [9]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,173 tons, an increase of 1,144 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, an increase of 708 tons; the stainless - steel social inventory is 990.8 tons, an increase of 12.8 tons; the nickel - pig - iron inventory is 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons [10].