1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments, and investors should focus on the competition around the MA60 line [4] - On the macro - front, the situation between the US and Iran is complex. Iran has rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House claims the negotiation is ongoing and productive. The information exchange is not considered a negotiation by Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz is open to non - belligerent countries [3] - On the fundamental side, the nickel ore imports have declined as the Philippines enters the rainy season. The approval progress of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB production is faster than expected, alleviating supply concerns. The domestic refined nickel production is expected to rise again, and the demand from stainless steel plants and new - energy vehicles is increasing [3] - Technically, the position volume has decreased, the price has corrected, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 135,860 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [3] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 17,345 US dollars/ton, up 365 US dollars; the main contract position volume of Shanghai nickel is 179,895 hands, down 8,924 hands [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 49,024 hands, up 4,278 hands; the LME nickel inventory is 282,456 tons, down 432 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 63,661 tons (weekly), down 20 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 18,492 tons, down 408 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 57,593 tons, down 12 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 139,350 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 139,250 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 3,490 yuan/ton, up 1,820 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 195.11 US dollars/ton, up 0.78 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 122.39 million tons, down 16.03 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 792.66 million tons (weekly), down 65.68 million tons [3] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 96.59 US dollars/ton, down 28.97 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.14 million metal tons, unchanged [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,308.15 tons, down 5,231.79 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 83.17 million tons, down 7.82 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 131.94 million tons, down 53.87 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.42 million tons, down 1.28 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The negotiation between the US and Iran is unclear. Iran has rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House claims the negotiation is ongoing and productive. Iran is prepared for further escalation of the situation [3] - Non - belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz after coordination. COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed new booking business (ordinary containers) to some Middle - East countries but will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for now [3] - As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity in China is 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The installed capacity of solar power generation is 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%; the installed capacity of wind power is 0.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8% [3] - A Fed governor believes that the current Fed policy is dragging down the economy and should gradually cut interest rates to the neutral level this year. The overall inflation forecast for this year is raised to 2.7% due to the oil price shock [3] - The ECB President says that the ECB will take decisive action if inflation is triggered by the soaring energy cost, and is currently assessing the impact of the Middle - East situation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 132,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,6885 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 180 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 179,706 lots, an increase of 6,570 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 52,192 lots, a decrease of 6,410 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 283,512 tons, a decrease of 258 tons [2] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,661 tons (weekly), a decrease of 20 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants are 18,360 tons, a decrease of 402 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 57,632 tons, an increase of 942 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 137,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 137,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 4,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 182.99 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.46 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3467 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 7.9266 million tons (weekly), a decrease of 0.6568 million tons [2] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, unchanged [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons, an increase of 110,900 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,200 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various tools to maintain sufficient liquidity [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance will allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones and increase direct and inclusive policies for consumers [2] - Trump threatened to limit Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and destroy its power plants. Sources said the US is planning to seize Iran's "nuclear reserves" [2] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - The Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend; Indonesia's RKAB plan is to adjust the quota, with an increase of up to about 25% - 30%, which is expected to meet domestic nickel ore demand and ease supply concerns [2] - The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large. Recently, the nickel price has been adjusted in a shock, and there is a profit margin in production. It is expected that the output of refined nickel will rise again [2] - The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and production has gradually resumed after the festival; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [2] - The domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, and the spot premium remains stable; the overseas LME inventory decreases slightly, and the spot premium is adjusted downward [2] - Technically, the position increases while the price is adjusted, and the divergence between long and short positions increases [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: March 19, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the 18th, nickel prices continued to weaken and adjust following the sector. Due to the ongoing Middle East situation, rising oil and gas prices increased inflationary pressures, leading to a downward adjustment in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The strong US dollar index pressured base metals. Spot prices adjusted slightly following the market, with traders mostly making normal deliveries and the market showing decent activity. Indonesia's policy remained tight. Although the government has clearly stated that it will start accepting RKAB revision applications in July, with the potential to increase the 2026 quota by up to 30%, it cannot alleviate the overall shortage of nickel ore resources, especially in the second quarter. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped slightly by 1 to 1092.5 yuan per nickel point, while battery - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 32,095 yuan per ton. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to operate under the game between Indonesia's policy support and the ongoing Middle East situation. Future attention should be paid to changes in Indonesia's industrial policy. In the short term, with a mix of long and short factors, a range - bound approach is maintained for now [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Nickel prices on the 18th followed the sector in weak adjustment. The Middle East situation increased inflation, the strong US dollar pressured base metals, and spot prices adjusted slightly. The Indonesian policy is tight, and the short - term nickel ore shortage remains. The price of high - nickel pig iron dropped slightly, and battery - grade nickel sulfate was flat. Nickel prices will operate under the game of two factors, and a range - bound approach is taken in the short term [8] 2. Industry News - On March 16, GEM responded on the investor interaction platform regarding the landslide accident at the tailings dam in Indonesia. In February 2026, an accident occurred at the temporary slag storage area of the Qingmeibang Park in Indonesia due to a landslide caused by heavy rain. The company has completed the rectification as required, and there are no issues such as license revocation. The rectification only involves part of the Qingmeibang HPAL production capacity, with a relatively small impact on the company's overall operations. The company is accelerating the completion and acceptance of the permanent slag storage to fully release production capacity. Since 2026, the Indonesian park has produced nearly 20,000 tons of nickel metal, a year - on - year increase of about 10%, and nearly 1,800 tons of cobalt metal, a year - on - year increase of about 20%, laying a foundation for the company's 2026 business goals [9] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to February, the national economy started strongly and had a good beginning. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the global sulfur supply faces a shortage risk. About 75% of Indonesia's sulfur is imported from the Middle East, and sulfur is a key raw material for producing sulfuric acid, which is used for nickel and copper ore leaching. Analysts point out that the sulfur inventory of HPAL nickel plants in Indonesia can usually only last for 1 - 2 months. If the transportation disruption continues, some plants may be forced to cut production as early as next month. Meanwhile, the sulfur price was close to $500 per ton before the conflict and has further increased by about 10 - 15% recently. The supply shortage may also affect African copper mines and the global fertilizer industry, and all parties will compete for alternative supplies. Some mining companies with smelters that can produce sulfuric acid themselves are less affected, while producers relying on purchased sulfur may face greater cost and supply pressures. Overall, if the Middle East shipping interruption lasts for more than a few weeks, relevant metal production and demand may be forced to slow down [10]

Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices experienced a rapid decline at the end of January and early February, with LME nickel dropping to around 16,500 and Shanghai nickel falling to approximately 130,000, but have since stabilized and recovered more than half of the losses [3][17]. Group 2: Nickel Ore Supply Dynamics - Indonesia is set to reduce nickel ore quotas, with approximately 260-270 million tons approved for mining by 2026, slightly above market expectations but significantly below the 2025 target of 379 million tons [4][18]. - The world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, is expected to see a substantial reduction in production quotas, with the approved ore production quota for this year at 12 million tons, far below the 42 million tons target for 2025 [4][18]. - Nickel Industries' Hengjaya mine has had its sales quota for 2026 significantly increased from 9 million wet tons to 14.3 million wet tons [4][18]. Group 3: Nickel Iron Production and Pricing - In January, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia totaled 165,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [7][21]. - The domestic high nickel pig iron price remains stable to slightly strong, with prices around 1,035-1,060 CNY per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices are stable at 133 USD per nickel [7][21]. Group 4: Refined Nickel Supply Situation - In January, domestic refined nickel production in China was 35,225 tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, with high inventories putting pressure on nickel prices [9][23]. - The total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high of 58,775 tons as of February 13, indicating a generally oversupplied market [9][23]. Group 5: Demand Recovery Outlook - In January, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a 6.3% increase month-on-month and an 18.6% increase year-on-year, but February production is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival [11][25]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has stabilized after a decline, with a recent price of 32,175 CNY per ton, while the production of downstream precursor plants has not yet resumed [11][25]. Group 6: Summary of Market Conditions - The overall market sentiment for precious metals and non-ferrous metals is warming, which may support a rebound in nickel prices, although a strong dollar may exert some pressure [13][27]. - The geopolitical landscape and the ongoing supply chain disruptions are likely to maintain the strategic value of key raw materials, with short-term nickel ore supply appearing slightly tight [13][27].

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, China's electric nickel production reached 34,700 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.5% and a month-on-month increase of 29.7%, driven by recovery from production cuts, improved nickel prices, and increased operational rates for the new year [1] Group 1: Electric Nickel Production - China's electric nickel production in January 2026 was 34,700 tons, a 10.5% increase year-on-year and a 29.7% increase month-on-month [1] - The recovery in production is attributed to three main factors: the gradual resumption of production by companies that faced raw material issues in Q4 2025, improved profit margins due to rising nickel prices, and an overall increase in operational rates to achieve a strong start for the new year [1] Group 2: NPI Production - In January 2026, China's NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) production was 21,400 tons, remaining stable month-on-month but showing a 3.6% decrease year-on-year [4] - High nickel iron production was 15,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%, while low nickel iron production increased by 16.4% month-on-month and 33.3% year-on-year to 6,400 tons [4] - NPI production is expected to decrease by 6.54% month-on-month in February 2026 to around 20,000 tons [4] Group 3: Battery-grade Nickel Sulfate Production - In January 2026, the production of battery-grade nickel sulfate was 35,000 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [4] - The production of primary raw material products was 32,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, accounting for approximately 92.8% of the total [4] - Due to the "export rush" and pre-holiday stockpiling, the demand for nickel sulfate from the ternary industry chain significantly increased [4] - In February, production is expected to decline to around 32,000 tons due to holiday-related reductions in effective working days and prior demand being concentrated [4]

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated February 2, 2026 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - Indonesia's production cut expectation: The Indonesian government is expected to lower the nickel ore quota in 2026, which may lead to a global nickel supply shortage and benefit prices [3] - New energy vehicle demand: The automobile production and sales data in January were good, and policy measures may stimulate demand, supporting nickel prices [3] Bearish Factors - Domestic inventory pressure has increased [3] - The Shanghai nickel futures show a weak trend technically [3] Trading Advice - Shanghai nickel showed a "sideways and weak" trend last week. Although the expectation of production cuts in Indonesia boosted sentiment, the significant increase in inventory turned market sentiment bearish. It is recommended to monitor subsequent inventory changes [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - Shanghai nickel main contract: The latest price was 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5,380 yuan (-3.70%) week-on-week [4] - Shanghai nickel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.93% in the continuous one contract [4] - LME nickel 3M: The latest price was 17,555 US dollars/ton, down 1,035 US dollars (-3.81%) week-on-week [4] - Open interest: Increased by 73,165 lots to 132,448 lots, a week-on-week increase of 123.4% [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 281,963 lots to 1,012,443 lots, a week-on-week increase of 38.60% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,359 tons to 46,876 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10.25% [4] - Main contract basis: Decreased by 2,370 yuan to 2,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 46.75% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - Stainless steel main contract: The latest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan (-3%) week-on-week [4] - Stainless steel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.45% in the continuous one contract [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 42,057 lots to 408,041 lots, a week-on-week increase of 11.49% [4] - Open interest: Decreased by 56,278 lots to 99,011 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 36.24% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,641 tons to 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.92% [4] - Main contract basis: Increased by 405 yuan to 630 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 180.00% [4] Spot Prices - Jinchuan nickel: The latest price was 149,900 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan (-1.15%) [4] - Imported nickel: The latest price was 142,700 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] - 1 electrolytic nickel: The latest price was 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1,850 yuan (-1.25%) [4] - Nickel beans: The latest price was 145,100 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.33%) [4] - Electrowon nickel: The latest price was 142,600 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory: Reached 70,643 tons, an increase of 4,349 tons [6] - LME nickel inventory: Reached 286,284 tons, a decrease of 186 tons [6] - Stainless steel social inventory: Reached 853 tons, an increase of 8.9 tons [6] - Nickel pig iron inventory: Reached 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [6] Charts and Data Sources Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price and LME nickel (3 months) electronic trading closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [7] - Stainless steel futures main contract closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [8] Spot Prices of Delivery Goods - Nickel spot average price trends from 2024 - 2026 [10] Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - China's total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports) seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - Domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] - LME nickel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] Upstream Nickel Ore - Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price trends from 2015 - 2025 [15] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [16] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average) trends from 2020 - 2025 [17] - Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price trends from 2021 - 2025 [17] - China's nickel iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [18] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price trends from 2024 - 2025 [21] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate premium trends from 2021 - 2025 [23] - Nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [24] - China's externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonality from 2023 - 2026 [24] - China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons) from 2021 - 2025 [25] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [25] Stainless Steel - China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [27] - Stainless steel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [29] - Stainless steel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of the Indonesian nickel - related events is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 145,380, down 2,630 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,645, down 80 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 718,003, down 34,837 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 555,399, up 67,119 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 150,800, up 6,000 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,050, up 8 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 14,550, up 100 compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 15,050, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products, effective from January 1, 2026 [3] - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [3] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the output may be around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, Guangdong, China [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The situation in Indonesia regarding nickel is uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market; concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia are intensifying, and the rising price of nickel iron is supporting the center of the stainless - steel market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Nickel and stainless - steel futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 148,010, the stainless - steel main contract is 14,725; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 752,840, and the stainless - steel main contract is 488,280 [1] - Nickel industry chain: The price of 1 imported nickel is 144,800, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,043; in the stainless - steel sector, the 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,450, and battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,800 [1] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2] - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products and levy royalties on cobalt [2] - Indonesia may significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4] - Some Indonesian mining companies may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal land occupation [4] - Indonesian officials said they will adjust nickel production according to industry demand and smelter capacity, with production likely between 250 million and 260 million tons [4] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [4] - A ship carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on the way from the Philippines to Guangdong, China [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 22nd, the nickel price continued to fluctuate widely supported by the 140,000 integer mark. The main contract closed up 1.15% at 142,500, and the total positions decreased by 6,645 hands to 386,000 hands compared with the previous day. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 5 to 1,033.5 yuan per nickel point again. The strong bullish sentiment in the pure nickel segment drove the nickel iron to rise, but the high cost reduced the downstream acceptance. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to fall by 600 to 32,750 yuan per ton. High prices led to insufficient pre - holiday stocking willingness of downstream, and the nickel salt price dropped from a high level. The MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited. The news that Vale only had 30% of the approved quota for production demand further solidified the expectation of quota reduction. The nickel market has great upward elasticity, and subsequent attention should be paid to the Indonesian policy and the actual quota issuance rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel price trend: On the 22nd, the nickel price fluctuated widely supported by the 140,000 integer mark, with the main contract closing up 1.15% at 142,500, and the total positions decreasing by 6,645 hands to 386,000 hands compared with the previous day [7]. - Price changes of related products: The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 5 to 1,033.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate fell by 600 to 32,750 yuan per ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited [7]. - Market influencing factors: The strong bullish sentiment in the pure nickel segment drove the nickel iron to rise, but the high cost reduced the downstream acceptance. High prices led to insufficient pre - holiday stocking willingness of downstream, and the nickel salt price dropped from a high level. The news that Vale only had 30% of the approved quota for production demand further solidified the expectation of quota reduction [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - PT Vale Indonesia's project progress: The HPAL Pomalaa project of PT Vale, Huayou, and Ford is accelerating. As of December 2025, the construction progress of the HPAL Pomalaa project has reached about 60%. Two autoclave equipment have arrived at the project site, and three other units are planned to be delivered later. The company aims to complete the mechanical completion of the HPAL Pomalaa factory by August 2026. PT Vale is the only nickel ore supplier for the HPAL Pomalaa factory [8]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd.'s production and cost situation: In 2025, the company's copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; the gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; the Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the copper and gold production guidance for 2026 - 2027, mainly due to higher maintenance requirements at Sentinel and lower ore grades at Kansanshi. The nickel production guidance remained unchanged. The unit copper cash cost and AISC are expected to be higher than previously expected, and the 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised because some investments originally planned for 2025 were postponed to 2026. The Panama government agreed to process the Cobre Panamá inventory ore, which is a positive signal for the project [10]. - Indonesia's nickel industry situation: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. In 2026, the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) is expected to be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be extended until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply still depends on the later government assessment and quota addition [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 21st, the nickel price fluctuated widely. Overnight, the sharp decline of European and American stock markets led to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment. The nickel price followed the non - ferrous sector and fell below 140,000. During the domestic daytime, it strengthened again, closing up 0.39% at 143,060. The daily line showed a long lower shadow, with an amplitude of more than 6,000 between the high and low points. The total positions increased slightly by 2,000 lots to 392,000 lots. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,028.5 yuan per nickel point, and the bullish sentiment in the market drove up the bargaining range. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped 85 to 33,375 yuan per ton. The coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited. The nickel price continued to run strongly supported by Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and macro - sentiment. It is necessary to closely monitor the policy statements of Indonesia and the final quota for the new year. It is expected to have a large upward elasticity before the final outcome is determined [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The nickel price on the 21st had a wide - range shock. Affected by the overnight decline of European and American stock markets, it first fell below 140,000 and then strengthened during the domestic daytime, closing up 0.39% at 143,060. The total positions increased slightly by 2,000 lots to 392,000 lots. The price of high - nickel pig iron was flat, the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped, and the MHP coefficient remained high with limited short - term circulation. The nickel price is expected to be elastic before the Indonesian policy is finalized [7] 3.2行业要闻 - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) stated that the 2026 Annual Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) will be used as a strategic tool to synchronize mineral production with domestic industrial demand, setting the nickel production target at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. The government aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government is still integrating specific data [8] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 Annual Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business, but management expects the license to be approved soon. This temporary suspension only affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, and the existing main Sorowako mine and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10] - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons [10]