热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月底2月初，镍价跟随贵金属和有色整体出现快速回调，LME镍最低至16500附近，沪镍则跌至13万附 近，随后便企稳震荡，目前已收复一半以上跌幅。 短期镍矿供应略偏紧 印尼将缩减镍矿配额的消息还在持续发酵，据悉，印尼当前已为2026年批准了约2.6亿-2.7亿镍矿开采配 额，略高于之前市场预估，但远低于2025年目标3.79亿吨。全球最大镍矿韦达湾预计将遭印尼政府大幅 缩减产量配额，今年获批矿石产量配额为1200万吨，远低于2025年的4200万吨，也低于2024年初批复的 基础配额1600万吨；不过，年初配额可在年中调整，最终产量存在弹性。同时，Nickel Industries旗下 Hengjaya矿山已获批2026年镍矿RKAB销售配额，总量由之前的900万湿吨显著提升至1430万湿吨。 据Mysteel，节后菲律宾和印尼镍矿价格稍有分歧，印尼2月下半月HPM基准价已按新HMA调整，各品 位价格小幅下跌约0.2-0.3美元/湿吨，升水暂维持节前水平，目前正值斋月，政府审批及矿山作业效率 放缓，供应难有明显增量；菲律宾方面，矿山持续少量出货 ...

（来源：安泰科） 来源：市场资讯 据安泰科统计，2026年1月中国电镍产量为3.47万吨，同比增加10.5%，环比增加29.7%。产量回升主要 得益于三方面因素：首先，2025年四季度因原料问题减产的企业逐步恢复生产；其次，镍价上行改善了 企业利润空间；第三，为实现新年度的"开门红"，整体开工率有所提升。 展望2月，由于春节假期导致有效工作日减少，预计精炼镍产量将环比下降7.8%，至3.2万吨左右。 2026年1月中国NPI产量为2.14万吨（折镍金属量），环比基本持平、同比下降3.6%。其中高镍铁1.5万 吨，环比下降5.7%、同比下降13.8%；低镍铁0.64万吨，环比增加16.4%，同比增加33.3%。展望2月， 中国NPI产量预计环比减少6.54%至2万吨。 2026年1月中国电池级硫酸镍产量为3.5万吨（折镍金属量），环比增加9.4%，同比增加11.5%。其中原 生物料原料产品产量3.2万吨，环比增加8%，同比增加10.8%，占比约92.8%。1月受"抢出口"及春节前 备货拉动，三元产业链对硫酸镍需求明显走高。进入2月，由于假期因素导致有效工作日缩短，叠加前 期需求已集中释放，加之部分企业安排停产检 ...

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated February 2, 2026 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - Indonesia's production cut expectation: The Indonesian government is expected to lower the nickel ore quota in 2026, which may lead to a global nickel supply shortage and benefit prices [3] - New energy vehicle demand: The automobile production and sales data in January were good, and policy measures may stimulate demand, supporting nickel prices [3] Bearish Factors - Domestic inventory pressure has increased [3] - The Shanghai nickel futures show a weak trend technically [3] Trading Advice - Shanghai nickel showed a "sideways and weak" trend last week. Although the expectation of production cuts in Indonesia boosted sentiment, the significant increase in inventory turned market sentiment bearish. It is recommended to monitor subsequent inventory changes [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - Shanghai nickel main contract: The latest price was 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5,380 yuan (-3.70%) week-on-week [4] - Shanghai nickel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.93% in the continuous one contract [4] - LME nickel 3M: The latest price was 17,555 US dollars/ton, down 1,035 US dollars (-3.81%) week-on-week [4] - Open interest: Increased by 73,165 lots to 132,448 lots, a week-on-week increase of 123.4% [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 281,963 lots to 1,012,443 lots, a week-on-week increase of 38.60% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,359 tons to 46,876 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10.25% [4] - Main contract basis: Decreased by 2,370 yuan to 2,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 46.75% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - Stainless steel main contract: The latest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan (-3%) week-on-week [4] - Stainless steel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.45% in the continuous one contract [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 42,057 lots to 408,041 lots, a week-on-week increase of 11.49% [4] - Open interest: Decreased by 56,278 lots to 99,011 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 36.24% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,641 tons to 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.92% [4] - Main contract basis: Increased by 405 yuan to 630 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 180.00% [4] Spot Prices - Jinchuan nickel: The latest price was 149,900 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan (-1.15%) [4] - Imported nickel: The latest price was 142,700 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] - 1 electrolytic nickel: The latest price was 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1,850 yuan (-1.25%) [4] - Nickel beans: The latest price was 145,100 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.33%) [4] - Electrowon nickel: The latest price was 142,600 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory: Reached 70,643 tons, an increase of 4,349 tons [6] - LME nickel inventory: Reached 286,284 tons, a decrease of 186 tons [6] - Stainless steel social inventory: Reached 853 tons, an increase of 8.9 tons [6] - Nickel pig iron inventory: Reached 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [6] Charts and Data Sources Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price and LME nickel (3 months) electronic trading closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [7] - Stainless steel futures main contract closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [8] Spot Prices of Delivery Goods - Nickel spot average price trends from 2024 - 2026 [10] Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - China's total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports) seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - Domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] - LME nickel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] Upstream Nickel Ore - Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price trends from 2015 - 2025 [15] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [16] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average) trends from 2020 - 2025 [17] - Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price trends from 2021 - 2025 [17] - China's nickel iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [18] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price trends from 2024 - 2025 [21] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate premium trends from 2021 - 2025 [23] - Nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [24] - China's externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonality from 2023 - 2026 [24] - China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons) from 2021 - 2025 [25] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [25] Stainless Steel - China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [27] - Stainless steel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [29] - Stainless steel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of the Indonesian nickel - related events is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 145,380, down 2,630 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,645, down 80 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 718,003, down 34,837 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 555,399, up 67,119 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 150,800, up 6,000 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,050, up 8 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 14,550, up 100 compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 15,050, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products, effective from January 1, 2026 [3] - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [3] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the output may be around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, Guangdong, China [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The situation in Indonesia regarding nickel is uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market; concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia are intensifying, and the rising price of nickel iron is supporting the center of the stainless - steel market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Nickel and stainless - steel futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 148,010, the stainless - steel main contract is 14,725; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 752,840, and the stainless - steel main contract is 488,280 [1] - Nickel industry chain: The price of 1 imported nickel is 144,800, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,043; in the stainless - steel sector, the 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,450, and battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,800 [1] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2] - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products and levy royalties on cobalt [2] - Indonesia may significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4] - Some Indonesian mining companies may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal land occupation [4] - Indonesian officials said they will adjust nickel production according to industry demand and smelter capacity, with production likely between 250 million and 260 million tons [4] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [4] - A ship carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on the way from the Philippines to Guangdong, China [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 22nd, the nickel price continued to fluctuate widely supported by the 140,000 integer mark. The main contract closed up 1.15% at 142,500, and the total positions decreased by 6,645 hands to 386,000 hands compared with the previous day. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 5 to 1,033.5 yuan per nickel point again. The strong bullish sentiment in the pure nickel segment drove the nickel iron to rise, but the high cost reduced the downstream acceptance. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to fall by 600 to 32,750 yuan per ton. High prices led to insufficient pre - holiday stocking willingness of downstream, and the nickel salt price dropped from a high level. The MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited. The news that Vale only had 30% of the approved quota for production demand further solidified the expectation of quota reduction. The nickel market has great upward elasticity, and subsequent attention should be paid to the Indonesian policy and the actual quota issuance rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel price trend: On the 22nd, the nickel price fluctuated widely supported by the 140,000 integer mark, with the main contract closing up 1.15% at 142,500, and the total positions decreasing by 6,645 hands to 386,000 hands compared with the previous day [7]. - Price changes of related products: The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 5 to 1,033.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate fell by 600 to 32,750 yuan per ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited [7]. - Market influencing factors: The strong bullish sentiment in the pure nickel segment drove the nickel iron to rise, but the high cost reduced the downstream acceptance. High prices led to insufficient pre - holiday stocking willingness of downstream, and the nickel salt price dropped from a high level. The news that Vale only had 30% of the approved quota for production demand further solidified the expectation of quota reduction [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - PT Vale Indonesia's project progress: The HPAL Pomalaa project of PT Vale, Huayou, and Ford is accelerating. As of December 2025, the construction progress of the HPAL Pomalaa project has reached about 60%. Two autoclave equipment have arrived at the project site, and three other units are planned to be delivered later. The company aims to complete the mechanical completion of the HPAL Pomalaa factory by August 2026. PT Vale is the only nickel ore supplier for the HPAL Pomalaa factory [8]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd.'s production and cost situation: In 2025, the company's copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; the gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; the Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the copper and gold production guidance for 2026 - 2027, mainly due to higher maintenance requirements at Sentinel and lower ore grades at Kansanshi. The nickel production guidance remained unchanged. The unit copper cash cost and AISC are expected to be higher than previously expected, and the 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised because some investments originally planned for 2025 were postponed to 2026. The Panama government agreed to process the Cobre Panamá inventory ore, which is a positive signal for the project [10]. - Indonesia's nickel industry situation: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. In 2026, the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) is expected to be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be extended until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply still depends on the later government assessment and quota addition [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 21st, the nickel price fluctuated widely. Overnight, the sharp decline of European and American stock markets led to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment. The nickel price followed the non - ferrous sector and fell below 140,000. During the domestic daytime, it strengthened again, closing up 0.39% at 143,060. The daily line showed a long lower shadow, with an amplitude of more than 6,000 between the high and low points. The total positions increased slightly by 2,000 lots to 392,000 lots. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,028.5 yuan per nickel point, and the bullish sentiment in the market drove up the bargaining range. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped 85 to 33,375 yuan per ton. The coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited. The nickel price continued to run strongly supported by Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and macro - sentiment. It is necessary to closely monitor the policy statements of Indonesia and the final quota for the new year. It is expected to have a large upward elasticity before the final outcome is determined [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The nickel price on the 21st had a wide - range shock. Affected by the overnight decline of European and American stock markets, it first fell below 140,000 and then strengthened during the domestic daytime, closing up 0.39% at 143,060. The total positions increased slightly by 2,000 lots to 392,000 lots. The price of high - nickel pig iron was flat, the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped, and the MHP coefficient remained high with limited short - term circulation. The nickel price is expected to be elastic before the Indonesian policy is finalized [7] 3.2行业要闻 - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) stated that the 2026 Annual Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) will be used as a strategic tool to synchronize mineral production with domestic industrial demand, setting the nickel production target at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. The government aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government is still integrating specific data [8] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 Annual Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business, but management expects the license to be approved soon. This temporary suspension only affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, and the existing main Sorowako mine and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10] - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons [10]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. After dropping below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday, prices rebounded during domestic trading hours. The price of ferronickel continued to climb, with the average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton, and the coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high. Although new projects are put into production in the first quarter, the short - term market circulation is still limited due to a two - month approval process. Benefiting from the news of Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and the macro - environment, nickel prices broke away from the long - term low - level oscillation area, but the oversupply pressure has not been reversed. This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons. Before the final policy is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price movement: On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. They dropped below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday and then rebounded during domestic trading hours [7]. - Price changes of related products: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron on the 19th rose by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high [7]. - Inventory situation: This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons [7]. - Outlook: Before the final policy from Indonesia is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's production plan: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) as a strategic tool to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand. The nickel production target is set at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. Adjusting production quotas for nickel and coal aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government says the specific data is still being integrated [8]. - Suspension of nickel mining by Vale Indonesia: Due to the unapproved 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business. However, management expects the license to be approved soon, and this temporary suspension will not affect the long - term operational sustainability of the joint venture. The delay only temporarily affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, while the Sorowako mining area and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - Nickel ore demand in Indonesia: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 is about 340 - 350 million tons [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesia's policy uncertainties, including nickel ore quota adjustments, consideration of taxing associated minerals, and fines for illegal mining, have led to a divergence in market expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will also be affected by these factors, with a wide - range of fluctuations in the short - term [4][8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in market sentiment next Tuesday, with a supply - demand situation of weak supply and strong demand. It is not recommended to participate in futures directly, but options can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are strong, and the spot purchase intention is increasing. The short - term downside space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [52][55]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation. A clearer buying opportunity is expected in February - March. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [79][80][84]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: After the market has digested the negative factors, soybean meal prices may rebound at low levels. Soybean No.1 spot prices are stable and strong, and futures prices will follow the market sentiment [94][99]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with limited downward adjustment space before the Spring Festival [113][118]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, sugar prices are in a low - level consolidation. Domestically, the market maintains a weak basis expectation, and it is necessary to pay attention to import policy changes [136][138][164]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton lacks fundamental drivers, and domestic cotton prices continue to adjust. It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to trade based on demand [165][180]. - **Pigs**: Pig spot prices will fluctuate and adjust, and the futures market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage. Attention should be paid to the trading of off - season expectations after the Spring Festival [181][182][183]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices are in a pattern of weak peak - season performance. Futures prices are weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [197][198]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Nickel prices fluctuate widely, and stainless steel prices are affected by nickel - related factors and show wide - range fluctuations [7][8][9]. - **Inventory**: Refined nickel inventory in China decreased slightly, while LME nickel inventory increased. The inventory of the nickel - stainless steel industry chain decreased [10]. - **Market News**: Indonesia has introduced a series of policies, including restricting new smelting licenses, adjusting nickel ore quotas, and considering taxing associated minerals [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices fluctuated within a range [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased [30][31][32]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon inventory increased, and polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate [30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures prices first rose and then fell, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: High lithium prices may lead to the resumption of overseas lithium mines. Demand is strong in the off - season, and inventory has decreased [53][54]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Palm oil prices fluctuated, and soybean oil prices were in a range - bound operation [79][84]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Palm oil production in Malaysia may decrease in January, and Indonesia's B50 policy is uncertain. Soybean oil is affected by the US biodiesel policy and South American soybean production [80][83]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Price Trends**: Soybean meal prices were weak, and soybean No.1 prices oscillated [94]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: China's continuous purchase of US soybeans has a positive impact, while the USDA report has a short - term negative impact. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased, and spot prices are stable [94][97]. Corn - **Price Trends**: Spot and futures prices both increased [113][114]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices were stable, and corn starch inventory decreased [115][116][117]. Sugar - **Price Trends**: Internationally, New York raw sugar prices increased slightly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices decreased slightly [136][137]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's production increased slightly, India's production increased significantly, and Thailand's production decreased [154][155]. Cotton - **Price Trends**: ICE cotton prices first rose and then fell, and domestic cotton prices continued to adjust [165][168]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The USDA report adjusted the US and global cotton balances. Domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is in the off - season [169][174]. Pigs - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were strong, and futures prices fluctuated strongly [181]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is tight, and demand is stable. The market is waiting for the confirmation of the supply - demand increase stage [181][182]. Peanuts - **Price Trends**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [197]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. The inventory pressure may be postponed to after the Spring Festival [197][198].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [2] - Report date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Research author: Chen Naixuan Z0023138 [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [3] Group 2: Core Views Bullish factors - Indonesia tightens nickel ore quotas, reducing potential supply gaps and providing cost - side support for prices [4] - Market funds flow into base metals, with sufficient commodity capital liquidity, boosting market sentiment [4] Bearish factors - Weak demand: limited boost from new energy vehicles, and downstream purchases on demand, resulting in insufficient consumption - side support [4] - High inventory and long - term oversupply situation remain unchanged, with high levels of LME and domestic visible inventories [4] Trading advisory view - Pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies, observe market fluctuations, and avoid blind position - building [4] Group 3: Market Data Nickel futures - The latest value of SHFE Nickel main contract is 146,750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.77% [5] - The latest value of SHFE Nickel continuous contract 1 is 146,750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 7,660 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.51% [5] - The latest value of SHFE Nickel continuous contract 2 is 147,020 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 7,800 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.60% [5] - The latest value of SHFE Nickel continuous contract 3 is 147,320 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 7,740 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.60% [5] - The latest value of LME Nickel 3M is 18,590 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 890 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 5.55% [5] Nickel trading volume and positions - The position volume is 101,617 lots, a decrease of 22,531 lots or 18.2% [5] - The trading volume is 1,738,133 lots, an increase of 654,931 lots or 60.46% [5] - The number of warehouse receipts is 41,972 tons, an increase of 3,116 tons or 8.02% [5] - The basis of the main contract is - 520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan or a decrease of 67.90% [5] Stainless steel futures - The latest value of stainless steel main contract is 14,415 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 560 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4% [5] - The latest value of stainless steel continuous contract 1 is 14,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 635 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.61% [5] - The latest value of stainless steel continuous contract 2 is 14,415 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 555 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.00% [5] - The latest value of stainless steel continuous contract 3 is 14,440 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 525 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.77% [5] Stainless steel trading volume and positions - The trading volume is 489,832 lots, an increase of 233,153 lots or 90.83% [5] - The position volume is 145,444 lots, an increase of 16,708 lots or 12.98% [5] - The number of warehouse receipts is 46,118 tons, a decrease of 1,417 tons or 2.98% [5] - The basis of the main contract is 355 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 14.52% [5] Nickel spot prices - The latest value of Jinchuan Nickel is 153,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3,350 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.23% [5] - The latest value of imported nickel is 146,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,100 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.88% [5] - The latest value of 1 electrolytic nickel is 150,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3,600 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.46% [5] - The latest value of nickel beans is 148,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,100 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.84% [5] - The latest value of electrowon nickel is 146,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,050 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.85% [5] Inventory data - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 61,046 tons, an increase of 2,126 tons [6] - The LME nickel inventory is 285,282 tons, an increase of 624 tons [6] - The stainless steel social inventory is 843.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 10.9 thousand tons [6] - The nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [6] Group 4: Charts and Graphs - Stainless steel futures main contract closing price chart from February 24 to December 25 [7] - Nickel spot average price chart including nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [9] - Nickel internal and external market trend chart including SHFE Nickel futures main contract closing price and LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading closing price [11] - China's refined nickel monthly production seasonal chart [12] - China's primary nickel monthly total supply (including imports) seasonal chart [12] - Domestic social inventory (nickel plate + nickel beans) seasonal chart [13] - LME nickel inventory seasonal chart [13] - Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price chart [15] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonal chart [15] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average) chart [16] - Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price chart [16] - China's nickel iron monthly production seasonal chart [17] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonal chart [18] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price chart from February 24 to December 25 [20] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate premium chart [22] - Nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit margin seasonal chart [23] - China's externally - purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonal chart [23] - China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons) chart [24] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonal chart [24] - China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin seasonal chart [26] - Stainless steel monthly production seasonal chart [28] - Stainless steel inventory seasonal chart [29]