Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 4, the Shanghai nickel price continued to decline, with the main contract closing down 0.53% to 120,850 yuan/ton. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel dropped by 50 to 2,050, and the premium/discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -200 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 1 to 945 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,870 yuan/ton [8]. - Affected by events such as Indonesia's adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and demonstrations, the decline of nickel ore is limited, and support is emerging. NPI remains strong under cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless - steel terminals is limited, so the subsequent upward space is restricted. The price of nickel sulfate remains strong, but the demand for new - energy ternary batteries is mediocre, and the expected increase is limited [8]. - Overall, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation. The nickel price continues to face pressure on the upside, and it is also difficult to break downward due to cost support. Short - selling at low levels has a relatively low cost - effectiveness. It is recommended to adopt a trading - range strategy, with the main operating range of the index referring to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The nickel price on September 4 showed a downward trend, along with changes in the premiums and discounts of different nickel products and the prices of related nickel - containing products. The report analyzes the supply and demand situation of different nickel - related products and gives an overall judgment on the nickel market, suggesting a trading - range strategy [8]. 2. Industry News - Tata Steel Mining's MD Pankaj K. Satija said India can relieve the supply shortage of key minerals like nickel through three paths: enhancing local mining and processing, recovering by - products from existing mining, and promoting "urban mining". India launched the National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM) in January this year, with a total budget of 163 billion rupees and plans to attract 180 billion rupees of state - owned enterprise investment to reduce dependence on Chinese supply [9]. - Indonesia's forest law - enforcement working group will conduct a centralized crackdown on illegal nickel mines. The action aims to regain state control of forests, and companies need to return illegal profits. Some cases may enter criminal investigations, and the seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department [10]. - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and the United Nations Global Compact, which reflects its commitment to environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential. For the stainless - steel market, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the main nickel contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,790 yuan/ton, a - 1.10% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,550 (- 3,232) lots, and the open interest was 84,729 (- 6,033) lots. Affected by the stronger US dollar index and the fading impact of the Indonesia event, the night - session price dropped sharply and then oscillated at a low level, with a daily - session amplitude of only 0.87% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The CIF price of 1.4% nickel ore was 50.5, showing a rising trend. The offer for 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia was 43.44. The Philippine side had firm quotes and good shipping efficiency. The domestic ferronickel price was stable, but domestic iron plants were still in the red and purchased cautiously. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the premium remaining at +24 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, a 1,800 - yuan drop from the previous day. Refined nickel trading was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 21,860 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 214,230 (+3,996) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel prices are mainly volatile, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,915 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 87,549 (- 43,080) lots, and the open interest was 86,864 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session opened slightly lower, then rebounded and oscillated around 12,965 yuan/ton. The daily - session gave back the night - session gains, with a minimum drop to 12,885 yuan/ton. The daily amplitude was only 0.81%, and the trading volume decreased by 43,100 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Spot**: The weakening of futures prices led to stronger market wait - and - see sentiment. Traders' price - concession behavior did not support spot transactions. Downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and market competition was fierce, resulting in poor transaction volume. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,250 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 355 - 655 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - With eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Nickel [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are under pressure again, with the main contract closing down 1.1% to 121,790 yuan/ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained flat at 944 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 40 to 27,870 yuan/ton. The nickel ore price has limited downside and support is emerging due to events in Indonesia. NPI remains strong but the upside for stainless - steel terminals is limited. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are strong, but the demand for new - energy ternary batteries is mediocre. The primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation, with limited upside and downside for nickel prices. It is recommended to adopt a trading strategy, with the index mainly operating in the range of 119,000 - 125,000 yuan, and it may be slightly stronger in September [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price performance: The main nickel contract closed down 1.1% to 121,790 yuan/ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was flat at 944 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose 40 to 27,870 yuan/ton [8] - Market analysis: Nickel ore has limited downside and support due to Indonesian events. NPI is strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but stainless - steel terminal improvement is limited. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are strong, but new - energy ternary battery demand is mediocre [8] - Operation suggestion: Adopt a trading strategy, with the index mainly operating in the range of 119,000 - 125,000 yuan, and it may be slightly stronger in September [8] Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9] - Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10] - A Turkish research team has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs [10] - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the UK enhance power system resilience [10]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding in the short term due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising raw material costs, and macro news. However, terminal demand has not recovered, production is still likely to increase, and prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 122,110 yuan/ton and closed at 123,450 yuan/ton, a 1.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 171,897 lots, and the open interest was 91,963 lots [1] - In the futures market, the main nickel contract showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation at night and closed slightly higher at the end. During the day session, it strengthened continuously due to the Jakarta strike in Indonesia and macro factors, reaching a maximum of 123,620 yuan/ton [2] - In the nickel ore market, it was mainly in a wait - and - see state during the day, and prices remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was okay. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars [2] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 125,500 yuan/ton, a 2,100 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the sharp price increase, the spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the premium and discount remained stable [2] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly conduct range operations for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2509 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 164,893 lots, and the open interest was 100,563 lots [3] - In the futures market, the main stainless steel contract was weak at night, oscillating narrowly in the range of 12,770 - 12,860 yuan/ton. During the day session, it rose rapidly due to the news of unrest in Indonesia, reaching a maximum of 12,970 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, although there was news in the morning that a large steel mill restricted the sales of steel coils, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced goods was still limited. With the sharp rise in the futures market, the increase in spot quotes failed to keep up with the futures, but market inquiries and procurement activities improved, and the trading situation was relatively ideal [3] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 28, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, with the trading volume decreasing and the open interest decreasing. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - On August 27, the main contract of stainless steel fluctuated within a range, with the trading volume increasing and the open interest decreasing. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. Currently, the impact of macro - sentiment is relatively large. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for the price to return to the fundamentals and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate with the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: On August 28, the Shanghai nickel main contract had a low - level oscillation. The trading volume was 129,831 lots (- 67,021), and the open interest was 92,205 lots (- 6,698). LME nickel rose 1.12%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased [2]. - **Supply Side**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore increased, and port inventories were replenished. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed. In August, domestic production decreased, while production in Indonesia increased, leading to nickel - iron accumulation. In August, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits decreased [2]. - **Demand Side**: Ternary material production increased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: On August 27, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated within a range. The trading volume was 128,526 lots (+ 25,799), and the open interest was 12,804 lots (- 5,355). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased [2]. - **Supply Side**: In August, stainless - steel production increased [2]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 62,600 tons (+ 8,500) [2]. Industry News - On August 27, at the "Stakeholder Engagement in the Nickel Industry's Decarbonization Roadmap" FGD held by the Indonesian Metal and Mining Entrepreneurs Association, illegal mining was the core focus. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association pointed out that there are still loopholes in relevant regulations that need to be coordinated with ESG standards of some institutions [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has dropped from around 95% to about 75%. The inflation pressure caused by tariffs is still greater than the pressure of the weakening labor market [3]. - Overseas nickel ore supply continues to be in a loose state, with the price of laterite nickel ore showing signs of softening. The price of ferronickel has stopped rising, and the consumption of downstream stainless steel is weak. The salt market remains popular, but the market's acceptance of price increases is poor. The trading volume in the pure nickel market has picked up [3]. - In the later stage, nickel prices will maintain a range - bound pattern and may be technically corrected. The uncertainty on the macro - front remains high, and the game between inflation pressure and the weakening labor market will continue. The traditional consumer market remains sluggish, and the new energy sector may improve, but it is difficult to determine whether the expectations can be realized. The supply side remains stable at a high level, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary | Variety | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/18 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119610 | 120340 | -730 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 14929 | 15151 | -222 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 209748 | 211662 | -1914 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 22552 | 23051 | -499 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2600 | 2200 | 400 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 500 | 400 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 936 | 936 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 88.3 | 87.8 | 0.50 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - level**: As of August 16, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 235,000, higher than the expected 225,000. The US manufacturing and service PMI in August were both better than expected. Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a significant downward revision of the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September to around 75% [6]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB prices of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia have declined. The expectation of a loose nickel ore supply remains unchanged, and Indonesian nickel iron plants generally expect the nickel ore price to decline further in late August [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, while the smelter's production schedule increased slightly. The domestic export and import of electrolytic nickel both increased year - on - year. After the import window opened, the imported resources increased significantly, and the spot inventory remained relatively stable [7]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 925.5 yuan/nickel point to 929 yuan/nickel point. In July, China's nickel pig iron production decreased slightly month - on - month. In June, the domestic nickel iron import increased significantly year - on - year, mainly from Indonesia. In July, Indonesia's nickel iron production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. As of August 15, the nickel iron physical ton inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The stainless - steel consumption is still sluggish, and the short - term ferronickel price may peak and then fluctuate around the cost line [8][9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased. In July, the production of nickel sulfate metal increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials also increased. The upstream and downstream inventory days of nickel sulfate decreased. The market for nickel sulfate remains popular, but the terminal market's resistance to high - nickel salts suppresses price increases [9]. - **New Energy**: From August 1 to 17, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 58.0%. The growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales has slowed down in the first and middle ten days of August. The replacement subsidy funds have been allocated, but the implementation of local policies varies, and the demand - side expectation is moderately weak [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel decreased by 1,019 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory decreased by 499 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,914 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges decreased by 2,413 tons [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Boqian New Materials' subsidiaries plan to invest in expanding the production of ultrafine nickel powder, with a planned construction period of 12 months and an additional annual production capacity of 600 tons each [12]. - Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price for August, which decreased by about 0.1% compared with the first - phase price [12]. - Centaurus Metals plans to make a final investment decision on its Brazilian nickel ore project in the first half of 2026, with an expected investment of $370 million and an annual production capacity of about 20,000 tons of nickel [12]. - Nimy Resources discovered a potential large - scale copper - nickel mineralization in Western Australia, which may strengthen the company's layout in the copper - nickel - PGE exploration field [12]. - Indonesia's nickel ore production from January to July 2025 was lower than the target, with a realization rate of only 69% [12]. - BHP cut its dividend to the lowest level since 2017 and plans to sell its idle Nickel West business [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the documents. Group 2: Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - emotions. However, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the contradiction between the release of Indonesian production capacity and weak stainless steel demand is still unresolved, so nickel prices are under pressure in the medium term [3]. - Under the dual pressure of abundant nickel ore supply from Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policy, stainless steel is under medium - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of domestic steel mill production cuts in September and the marginal improvement signals of new energy vehicle demand [6]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,520 yuan/ton and closed at 122,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session volume was 96,355 lots, and the day - session volume was 89,510 lots. The position decreased from 73,889 lots at night to 70,930 lots during the day, indicating continuous capital outflow [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong attitude of holding up prices, and downstream iron plants' loss narrowed, so their pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the August (Phase I) premium was mainly +24, unchanged from the previous period [3]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum continued to slow down. Downstream enterprises still had strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,215 yuan/ton and closed at 13,130 yuan/ton. The night - session volume was 130,400 lots, and the day - session volume was 160,300 lots. The position increased from 143,700 lots at night to 144,200 lots during the day, indicating that short - sellers dominated [4][5]. Spot - In the morning, due to weak trading and falling futures prices, many sellers lowered their quotes to promote transactions. The overall inquiry atmosphere decreased compared with before, but as the traditional peak season approached, most downstream enterprises were still bullish on the future. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,300 yuan/ton [5]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: neutral; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. Due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, high - nickel iron is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable, so there is still cost support. With few downstream rigid - demand orders and weak spot trading, price increases lack momentum. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range with a slight upward bias in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 opened at 120,630 yuan/ton and closed at 120,910 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84,818 lots, and the open interest was 90,543 lots. Philippine mines are in the shipping stage, while domestic iron plants are reducing production loads and being cautious in raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (first phase) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium remained flat. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel was raised by about 500 yuan/ton, and the premiums of refined nickel were mostly stable, but spot trading became lighter. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,923 (- 247.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 211,254 (2172) tons [1]. - **Strategy**: In the near term, trade within the range for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,845 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 79,826 lots, and the open interest was 85,949 lots. The US may impose new tariffs, and China will resume levying VAT on the interest income of certain bonds from August 8, 2025. In the spot market, the futures price oscillated upward, but the spot price changed little. After rigid - demand restocking, market trading declined, and the overall trading was average. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 95 - 295 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 916.0 yuan/nickel point [2]. - **Strategy**: The single - side trading strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Macro Aspect**: The US economic growth maintains a slight increase, with some areas seeing rising prices. Fed officials' hawkish remarks suggest maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy. The impact of tariffs on prices is not obvious yet, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. The short - term disturbance may come from the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, and the macro is about to enter a data - silent period [3]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, with prices in the Philippines and Indonesia showing signs of weakening. Nickel - iron prices are under continuous pressure, and stainless - steel mills have low production schedules. The nickel sulfate market has improved, but the transaction has not fully recovered. Pure nickel shows no significant change in premium and discount. The inventory is accumulating again, and there is no obvious improvement expectation in the fundamentals [3]. - **Future Outlook**: There is no improvement expectation in the industry. Although the trading in the nickel sulfate market has recovered, the sales growth of new - energy vehicles is weak. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded, but steel production is still shrinking. Supply has recovered, but export profits have shrunk, making it difficult to drive upstream production increase. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate under macro - level disturbances [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Nickel Prices**: SHFE nickel decreased from 121,100 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton; LME nickel increased from 15,064 dollars/ton to 15,218 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 264 tons to 21,560 tons. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 1,662 tons to 229,136 tons [4][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, while the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, and Indonesia has lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore in the second phase of July. The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia show signs of weakening [3][5]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased from 903.5 yuan/nickel point to 900 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia shows different trends. Stainless - steel mills have low production schedules, and the demand for nickel - iron is limited. However, due to cost - price inversion, some factories have reduced production or switched to high - grade nickel matte production, and the price may bottom out soon [6]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly from 27,420 yuan/ton to 27,230 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while the production of ternary materials increased. The spot market has improved, but the actual demand is not strong enough to drive price reversal [7]. 3. Terminal Consumption - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 332,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The annual cumulative sales growth rate is gradually declining. There are also some policies to support the new - energy vehicle industry, such as standards for battery replacement and subsidy policies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel has rebounded under policy drive, but steel mills' production schedules are still in a contraction phase, and the strong consumption expectation has not been fulfilled [3][11]. 4. Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Policy**: Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic benchmark price in July, which decreased by about 0.11% compared with the first - phase price. The RKAB approval mechanism will return to annual approval next year [12]. - **Company Operations**: PT GAG Nikel in West Papua has not been allowed to resume operations [12]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US will impose a 19% tariff on all imported Indonesian goods, and Indonesia will purchase US energy, agricultural products, and Boeing aircraft [12]. 5. Related Charts - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premium and discount, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,550 yuan/ton, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 131,554 lots, and the open interest was 54,128 lots [1]. - The main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated upward, closing with a positive candlestick. The trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, approaching the edge of turning green, indicating a short - term correction demand. There was a bottom divergence at around 117,000 on June 23, and it is estimated that the 117,000 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 1,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased. The refined nickel futures market entered a sideways phase, with increasing downward pressure. The overall spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the supply glut pattern remained unchanged. Although the premium had declined recently, it was still at a high level, so the spot price supported the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton [1]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,049 (- 506.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,288 (708) tons [1]. Strategy - The spot trading of refined nickel has been relatively sluggish recently, and the supply glut pattern remains. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,685 yuan/ton and closed at 12,670 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,703 lots, and the open interest was 100,817 lots [2]. - The main contract of stainless steel rose and then fell again, closing with a small negative candlestick. Affected by the contract switch, the trading volume and open interest of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and the negative candlestick covering the positive candlestick last Friday indicated pressure above the 40 - day moving average. It is considered that there are two pressure levels at around 12,700 and 13,100. There was a bottom divergence at around 12,400 on June 24, so it is estimated that the 12,400 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [3]. - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market raised their quotations by 50 yuan/ton in the morning, but many reduced prices to boost sales in the afternoon. The spot trading volume did not recover well, and market confidence remained insufficient. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, with most sellers' quotations at 905 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, tax - included). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,750 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 110 and 310 yuan/ton [3]. - According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 900.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The daily line of the stainless steel main contract formed a bottom divergence structure at 12,400. Wait for it to stand firm above the 40 - day moving average pressure level. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is around 12,400 - 12,500. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5]