Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: March 19, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the 18th, nickel prices continued to weaken and adjust following the sector. Due to the ongoing Middle East situation, rising oil and gas prices increased inflationary pressures, leading to a downward adjustment in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The strong US dollar index pressured base metals. Spot prices adjusted slightly following the market, with traders mostly making normal deliveries and the market showing decent activity. Indonesia's policy remained tight. Although the government has clearly stated that it will start accepting RKAB revision applications in July, with the potential to increase the 2026 quota by up to 30%, it cannot alleviate the overall shortage of nickel ore resources, especially in the second quarter. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped slightly by 1 to 1092.5 yuan per nickel point, while battery - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 32,095 yuan per ton. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to operate under the game between Indonesia's policy support and the ongoing Middle East situation. Future attention should be paid to changes in Indonesia's industrial policy. In the short term, with a mix of long and short factors, a range - bound approach is maintained for now [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Nickel prices on the 18th followed the sector in weak adjustment. The Middle East situation increased inflation, the strong US dollar pressured base metals, and spot prices adjusted slightly. The Indonesian policy is tight, and the short - term nickel ore shortage remains. The price of high - nickel pig iron dropped slightly, and battery - grade nickel sulfate was flat. Nickel prices will operate under the game of two factors, and a range - bound approach is taken in the short term [8] 2. Industry News - On March 16, GEM responded on the investor interaction platform regarding the landslide accident at the tailings dam in Indonesia. In February 2026, an accident occurred at the temporary slag storage area of the Qingmeibang Park in Indonesia due to a landslide caused by heavy rain. The company has completed the rectification as required, and there are no issues such as license revocation. The rectification only involves part of the Qingmeibang HPAL production capacity, with a relatively small impact on the company's overall operations. The company is accelerating the completion and acceptance of the permanent slag storage to fully release production capacity. Since 2026, the Indonesian park has produced nearly 20,000 tons of nickel metal, a year - on - year increase of about 10%, and nearly 1,800 tons of cobalt metal, a year - on - year increase of about 20%, laying a foundation for the company's 2026 business goals [9] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to February, the national economy started strongly and had a good beginning. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the global sulfur supply faces a shortage risk. About 75% of Indonesia's sulfur is imported from the Middle East, and sulfur is a key raw material for producing sulfuric acid, which is used for nickel and copper ore leaching. Analysts point out that the sulfur inventory of HPAL nickel plants in Indonesia can usually only last for 1 - 2 months. If the transportation disruption continues, some plants may be forced to cut production as early as next month. Meanwhile, the sulfur price was close to $500 per ton before the conflict and has further increased by about 10 - 15% recently. The supply shortage may also affect African copper mines and the global fertilizer industry, and all parties will compete for alternative supplies. Some mining companies with smelters that can produce sulfuric acid themselves are less affected, while producers relying on purchased sulfur may face greater cost and supply pressures. Overall, if the Middle East shipping interruption lasts for more than a few weeks, relevant metal production and demand may be forced to slow down [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel is weak but in line with expectations. Policy factors are the main driver of nickel price trends. With the dominant nickel ore contraction policy in Indonesia, nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory state [1][4]. - The price trend of stainless steel is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless steel prices. It is expected that stainless steel prices will also maintain a high - level oscillatory state [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 137,480 yuan/ton and closed at 137,160 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.69% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 309,179 (-192,726) lots, and the open interest was 210,843 (-681) lots [1]. - Nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy continues to ferment, with the 2026 RKAB quota set at 2.5 billion tons, a 34% drop from 3.79 billion tons in 2025, which leads to expectations of future nickel ore supply shortage and supports nickel prices. On the fundamental side, supply production continues to rise, inventories at home and abroad accumulate, and the market supply is sufficient. The consumption of stainless steel after the Spring Festival is poor, and the inventory rebounds significantly, suppressing price rebounds. The production and sales of new energy vehicles meet expectations but are in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement [1]. Macro and Cost Factors - Global risk - aversion sentiment has reignited. The US dollar index has rebounded, suppressing the price trends of nickel and stainless steel. The global crude oil supply crisis has led to a resurgence of tension, and the US dollar has strengthened, putting pressure on commodity prices [2]. - Affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, international oil prices have soared, driving up ocean freight rates. The transportation cost of Philippine nickel ore has increased significantly, strengthening cost - side support. The ocean freight from the Philippines to major ports in China and Indonesia has generally increased by 5 - 7 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the domestic trade premium of nickel ore remains high, and the incentive mechanism is diversified [2]. Spot Market - The nickel price declined slightly during the day. The spot premium of Jinchuan resources rebounded slightly, while the premiums and discounts of other brands remained stable. After the nickel price correction, the downstream's willingness to purchase at low prices increased slightly, but overall trading was still cautious. The cost - side support remains solid. The tightening policy of the Indonesian nickel ore RKAB quota continues to ferment, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects sulfur imports, pushing up the production costs of hydrometallurgy and electrowinning nickel [3]. Strategy - The current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy is the main driver of nickel price trends. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a high - level oscillatory state. The strategy is mainly interval operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,235 yuan/ton and closed at 14,215 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,682 (-30,711) lots, and the open interest was 104,928 (-4,171) lots [5]. - The price trend of stainless steel is mainly influenced by nickel prices. On the supply side, the crude steel production schedule in March increased month - on - month, and the supply pressure increased. The operating rate of stainless steel plants remained high, and the production was sufficient. On the consumption side, the consumption after the Spring Festival was poor, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, suppressing price rebounds. Although there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, short - term demand is difficult to improve significantly [5]. Spot Market - Spot traders' quotations remained stable overall. Downstream terminals mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The previous bullish sentiment has been exhausted, and the willingness to purchase and stock up in advance is insufficient. As the traditional peak season approaches, the basic demand can still be maintained, and practitioners expect that the stainless steel price will still be strongly supported by costs within the month [5]. Strategy - The current price trend is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless steel prices. It is expected that stainless steel prices will maintain a high - level oscillatory state. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 11th, nickel prices fluctuated within a narrow range, mainly following the sector and market sentiment. The main contract operated between 136,000 - 138,000 yuan. The total open interest slightly decreased by 138 to 365,000 lots. The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5.5 to 1,092.5 yuan per nickel point compared to the previous day. The market's low - price supplies were basically consumed, and the cost of available supplies from upstream smelters was relatively high, so the quotes began to rise. The tender prices of mainstream steel mills boosted the purchasing sentiment of steel mills, driving the market transaction center to rise again. Nickel iron prices may still have room to rise. The price of nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 32,070 yuan per ton. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association expects the Indonesian government to accept RKAB revision applications in July, potentially increasing the 2026 quota by up to 30%, alleviating concerns about the nickel ore supply gap this year. However, considering that the tight supply of nickel ore is a fact, there is still some support for nickel prices at the lower end. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to be dominated by policy - side impacts, with a focus on changes in Indonesian industrial policies, and a range - trading approach is recommended for now [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel price on the 11th: Narrow - range fluctuation, main contract in the range of 136,000 - 138,000 yuan, total open interest slightly decreased by 138 to 365,000 lots [8] - Nickel iron price: The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5.5 to 1,092.5 yuan per nickel point, with potential for further increase [8] - Nickel sulfate price: Remained unchanged at 32,070 yuan per ton [8] - Policy impact: The Indonesian government is expected to accept RKAB revision applications in July, potentially increasing the 2026 quota by up to 30%, with nickel prices having some support at the lower end and being dominated by policy - side impacts [8] 3.2行业要闻 - **Vale**: In 2025, its nickel production reached 177,000 tons, the highest since 2022, a year - on - year increase of 10.69% (17,100 tons). The Q4 production was 46,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. It expects 2026 nickel production to be between 175,000 - 200,000 tons [9] - **First Quantum Minerals Ltd.**: In 2025, copper production was about 396,000 tons within the revised guidance range, gold production was about 152,000 ounces above the upper limit of the guidance, and Enterprise nickel production exceeded expectations. It slightly lowered the 2026 - 2027 copper and gold production guidance, kept the nickel production guidance unchanged, expected higher unit copper cash cost and AISC, and raised the 2026 capital expenditure guidance. The Panama government agreed to process Cobre Panamá inventory ores [10] - **Indonesia**: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. The ESDM plans to strategically adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to 250 - 260 million tons, and has allowed the existing quota to be extended until March 31, 2026, with the actual annual supply depending on later government evaluation and quota addition [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On March 5, Shanghai nickel showed a narrow and weak performance. The main contract 2605 closed at 136,270 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decline from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1089 yuan/nickel point, and the price of nickel sulfate increased by 115 to 32,050 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association's statement that the Indonesian government may increase the 2026 quota by up to 30% in July has eased market concerns about the nickel ore supply gap this year. However, considering the tightening of nickel ore supply, there is still some support for nickel prices. In the short term, the price increase has weakened due to the alleviation of market sentiment. The situation of the new quota needs to be observed in July. Overall, in the context of resource competition and tight supply, nickel prices are more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back before trying long positions [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On March 5, the main contract 2605 of Shanghai nickel closed at 136,270 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1089 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of nickel sulfate increased by 115 to 32,050 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association's statement about the potential quota increase in July has eased supply gap concerns, but nickel ore supply is still tight. In the short term, the price increase has loosened, and the new quota situation needs further observation. Overall, nickel prices are likely to rise, and it is advisable to wait for a pull - back to go long [8] 3.2行业要闻 - Vale's nickel production in 2025 reached 177,000 tons, the highest since 2022, a 10.69% increase from 2024. The fourth - quarter production was 46,200 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. The company expects 2026 production to be between 175,000 and 200,000 tons [9] - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. released 2025 preliminary production data and 2026 - 2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidance. Its 2025 copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised range, and gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit. Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the 2026 - 2027 copper and gold production guidance, kept the nickel production guidance unchanged, and raised the 2026 capital expenditure guidance. The Panama government's agreement to process Cobre Panamá inventory ore is a positive signal [10] - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be used until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on government evaluation and quota addition [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, although terminal demand is still weak, tight nickel ore supply, geopolitical conflicts, and rising costs are expected to keep nickel prices in a high - level oscillation. In the stainless - steel market, rising costs and the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season are expected to support high - level oscillations, but high inventory and a sluggish real - estate market will limit price increases [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On March 3, 2026, the main Shanghai nickel contract opened at 139,500 yuan/ton and closed at 135,450 yuan/ton, a - 3.16% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 730,033 (+175,596) lots, and the open interest was 218,764 (-349) lots. The price trend was mainly affected by the strengthening US dollar index, stock market fluctuations, and geopolitical conflicts [1] - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market continued to be strong. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes, and Indonesia set a 2026 production target of 209 million tons, mainly for royalty calculation. The supply shortage caused by tightened RKAB quotas in Indonesia continued, and the supply tension was difficult to ease in the short term. There was a transaction of Ni:1.5% grade nickel ore at a premium of $39/wet ton and a CIF price of about $62/wet ton [1] - **Spot**: Nickel prices dropped significantly, and overall market transactions were light. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. The inquiry atmosphere improved, but actual transactions were limited. The terminal market had not fully resumed production and had a low acceptance of high prices. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 200 yuan/ton to 6,950 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,649 (-72) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 287,976 (0) tons [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On March 3, 2026, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 14,390 yuan/ton and closed at 14,185 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,750 (-22,339) lots, and the open interest was 65,361 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel, the contract showed a pattern of opening high and closing low with a weak oscillation. High - end spot market quotes declined, and the sales side was wait - and - see. The demand side saw an increasing inquiry atmosphere as downstream enterprises gradually resumed production, but the "Golden March and Silver April" peak - season demand had not been fully released, and actual orders were limited. Stainless - steel inventory had accumulated recently, and the market was concerned about the peak - season digestion ability [3] - **Spot**: The futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with purchases mainly on an as - needed basis. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,450 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 14,450 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 355 - 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,087.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [1] - For stainless steel, the cost - support center has shifted upward, and inventory accumulation during the off - season restricts its elasticity [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 137,950, with a change of 2,760 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract is 14,085, with a change of 225 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 133,057, a decrease of 246,471 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel's main contract is 126,039, a decrease of 97,844 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,900, with a change of 2,400 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,054, with a change of 2 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,200, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2] - Some Indonesian mines may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final fine may be lower [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [3] - Indonesia's ESDM has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [3] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [3] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons [4] - Philippine miners say the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [4] - A landslide occurred in the tailings area of the IMIP park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [6]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors and raw material prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics [3] Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices are showing strong support at the bottom, with Indonesian nickel ore premiums rising to $32-35 per wet ton, and CIF prices for nickel at 1.4% from the Philippines increasing to $63 per wet ton [1] - High nickel pig iron prices are reported to be around 1100 yuan per nickel (including tax), indicating a rising trend in market quotes [1][3] Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to reach 3.426 million tons in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [1] - February's stainless steel crude steel output is expected to be 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [1] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts, with certain mills undergoing maintenance [1] Inventory - Social inventory is accumulating, with a reported increase in warehouse receipts. As of February 13, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan reached 470,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,700 tons [2] - As of February 24, stainless steel futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 60,810 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,287 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is maintaining a strong oscillation, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and raw material prices. The introduction of a 10% global tariff by the U.S. is a key factor to monitor [3] - Demand is insufficient to support high price increases, with traditional and emerging sectors showing divergence and procurement slowing down due to financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - Overall, the market is expected to experience slow recovery in supply and demand, with ongoing cost and demand negotiations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices adjusted with reduced volatility during the day. The main contract 2603 closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, slightly down 0.19%. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and policy disturbances in Indonesia, overseas nickel ore prices have risen significantly. Considering the expanding smelting capacity in Indonesia, the 250 million - ton quota may lead to a structural shortage of ore in 2026. The firm ore price provides cost support for high - nickel pig iron, with the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 1 to 1043.5 yuan/nickel point. However, downstream enterprises have basically no restocking demand before the festival, and only a few traders have the psychology of hoarding goods due to bullish expectations. The gap between upstream and downstream intended prices has widened, and the pre - festival market is cold with few transactions. The price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 31,950 yuan/ton. The recent decline in nickel prices has weakened cost support, and some manufacturers have stocked up on Spring Festival raw materials, with a low acceptance of high - priced nickel salts. Affected by macro - sentiment and the long - holiday factor, pre - festival funds tend to be cautious, leading to a reduced - volatility adjustment of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and the actual implementation of the quota, and be vigilant against uncertainties such as the final approved total being temporarily increased due to smelter pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel prices adjusted with reduced volatility. The main contract 2603 closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Overseas nickel ore prices rose due to the rainy season in the Philippines and policy disturbances in Indonesia. The 250 million - ton quota may cause a structural ore shortage in 2026. High - nickel pig iron price got cost support, but the pre - festival market was cold. Nickel sulfate price remained flat, and cost support weakened. Pre - festival funds were cautious, and nickel prices adjusted with reduced volatility. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and quota implementation [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - Vale's nickel production in 2025 reached 177,000 tons, the highest since 2022, a year - on - year increase of 10.69%, higher than the 2025 industrial guidance. The fourth - quarter production was 46,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The company expects its 2026 nickel production to be between 175,000 - 200,000 tons [8][10]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. announced its 2025 preliminary production data and 2026 - 2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidelines. Its 2025 copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; and Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered its 2026 - 2027 copper and gold production guidelines, kept the nickel production guideline unchanged, expected higher unit copper cash cost and AISC, and raised the 2026 capital expenditure guideline. The Panama government agreed to process Cobre Panamá inventory ore [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. On January 14, 2026, the Director of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that this year's nickel ore production quota (RKAB) would be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The ESDM has allowed the existing quota to be extended until March 31, 2026, but the annual actual supply still depends on later government evaluation and quota addition [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Near the Spring Festival holiday, the prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within a range. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference, there is some support for the cost side. If the price drops significantly, one can consider buying on dips [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2603 opened at 133,020 yuan/ton and closed at 134,520 yuan/ton, a change of 1.45% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 417,105 (-137,339) lots, and the open interest was 83,976 (-1,500) lots [1] - In the futures market, the Shanghai nickel main contract rebounded after hitting the bottom. The weakening of the US dollar index and the 1.03% increase in LME nickel overnight drove the domestic market sentiment to warm up. The inflow of domestic funds into the non - ferrous metal sector provided liquidity support for Shanghai nickel. After the previous over - decline, short - covering pushed the price to rebound. In addition, the nickel ore price remained stable, there was cost support for nickel iron, and the expectation of production cuts by some high - cost smelters emerged, and the expected marginal contraction of supply supported the price [1] - In the nickel ore market, the overall performance was calm, and the price remained stable. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, market participants gradually decreased, the trading atmosphere became light, and both buyers and sellers were mainly in a wait - and - see state. Domestic factories had high raw material costs and low willingness to purchase nickel ore at the current price. Most factories mainly consumed existing inventories and executed long - term contracts and suspended new spot purchase plans. The Indonesian market also entered a pre - holiday stable period, with no new major transactions or policy news [1] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 143,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Pre - holiday spot trading was light, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel mostly remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 51,721 (447) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,072 (-210) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that the price will mainly show a volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within a range. If the price drops significantly, one can consider buying on dips. For single - side trading, it is mainly to operate within a range, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the stainless steel main contract 2603 opened at 13,690 yuan/ton and closed at 13,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,272 (-50,600) lots, and the open interest was 41,399 (-4,171) lots [2] - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract showed a narrow - range shock and a slight decline at the end of the session. The rebound of the Shanghai nickel contract drove the sentiment of the stainless steel raw material end to recover, providing some support for the stainless steel price. The stable nickel ore price and cost support for nickel iron, along with the expectation of production cuts by some high - cost smelters, supported the price [3] - In the spot market, the futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, mainly purchasing on demand, and inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 400 to 600 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,040.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is expected that the price will mainly show a volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within a range. If the price drops significantly, one can consider buying on dips. For single - side trading, it is mainly to operate within a range, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures both showed upward trends on February 4, 2026, with nickel experiencing a significant rebound and stainless steel showing a milder upward movement. Due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, it is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies. However, considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [1][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 135,400 yuan/ton and closed at 137,680 yuan/ton, a change of 3.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 481,566 (-181,798) lots, and the open interest was 99,453 (-2,047) lots. The contract showed a strong rebound, maintaining a high - level operation with a significant upward shift in the price center. The previous panic - driven decline led to an oversold situation, creating a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the London nickel market, driving the Shanghai nickel rebound through the linkage of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore market showed a differentiated consolidation trend. Affected by the price correction of downstream products, the CIF quotes in the domestic market slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere was dull. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes and mainly executed previous orders. However, due to limited downstream acceptance, high - priced resources had difficulty in trading, and buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a slight increase in the actual bargaining space and a decline in CIF prices. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and the new benchmark price and premium for the first half of February were still in effect. The market was in an adaptation and wait - and - see period for the new price system, with no new policies or trading information to guide, and overall trading activities were calm [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 145,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was poor, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands mostly increased. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 48,072 (-108) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,314 (786) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [3]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [4]. - **Inter - period**: None [4]. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. - **Futures - spot**: None [4]. - **Options**: None [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,620 yuan/ton and closed at 13,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 224,029 (+4,598) lots, and the open interest was 59,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a fluctuating upward trend, achieving a recovery driven by Shanghai nickel and cost support. The trading volume moderately increased, and the open interest slightly increased. Overall, it was relatively strong, but the rhythm was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. The previous continuous decline created a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar led to a resonance of domestic and foreign market sentiments, driving the stainless steel rebound [4]. - **Spot**: Trading was light but improved compared to the previous period, and pre - festival restocking orders increased. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+100) yuan/ton, the price in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and the premium of 304/2B was 310 to 510 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,030.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [5]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [5]. - **Inter - period**: None [5]. - **Inter - variety**: None [5]. - **Futures - spot**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].