具库与镇矿担忧博弈,镇价窄幅震荡 下方想象力有限。向上缺乏驱动 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 张再宇 报告导读: 沪镍基本面:冶炼累库矛盾与镍矿担忧预期博弈,短线窄幅区间难破局。冶炼瑞内外显性库存重新回 到累库,市场普遍预期隐性补库放缓,精炼镍基本面边际供增需弱。镍合金端使用镍铁取代線板的比例有 所提高,而纯镍投产仍有增加的预期,叠加远端低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期,现实和预期或仍限制沪 镍上方弹性。虽然非标镍基本面边际改善,部分企业考虑将精炼镍转向非标镍生产,但转产暂未动摇精炼 镍的累库矛盾,即还不够有效传导至精炼镍的供需改善,因而冶炼端逻辑依然对上方弹性形成限制。目前, 多头核心支撑点在于火法路径成本和印尼镍矿供应治理政策的不确定性。虽然现实影响量级可控,粗略估 算,影响至多约 2000 余金属吨,但短线检查结果频出或增加市场担忧。其一,因违反印尼林业许可证规 定 WBN 园区面积的 0.3%的部分被接管,影响镍矿量级至多 120 万湿吨（年出货量）;印尼对未缴纳复垦保 证金的矿业公司责令暂时停产,影响银矿量级至多 300 万湿吨（年出货量)。更重要的是,印 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, and stainless steel prices are expected to continue weak operation [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,410 yuan/ton, down 1.68% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 149,002 (-10,068) lots, and the open interest was 74,700 (-3,140) lots. Influenced by the US president's remarks, there are concerns about the escalation of Sino - US tariff friction, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened low and moved low, and the LME inventory has reached the highest level since October 17, 2022 [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and prices are stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF44 without a deal. In the Philippines, the tender result of 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen Mine in Zambales is pending. The price of downstream nickel - iron has declined, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories are preparing for "winter storage". In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply is loose, with the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium at +26 [1] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is fair, and the premium and discount of refined nickel are slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 25,272 (44) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 242,094 (4,716) tons [2] Group 4: Strategy of Nickel - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Group 5: Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,989 (+134,394) lots, and the open interest was 176,416 (-4,171) lots. Similar to Shanghai nickel, affected by the US president's remarks, the overall trend of metal futures is weak, and stainless steel also opened low and moved low [3] Spot - Due to the sharp decline in the futures market and weak demand, market confidence is severely hit, and spot trading is light. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 13,150 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 13,100 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 480 - 780 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 951.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Strategy of Stainless Steel - It is recommended to take a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

General Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team, including researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Report's Core View - On the 10th, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell. The main contract 2511 reached a maximum of 124,880, then followed the sector down, closing at 122,180, a 0.76% drop from the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300, and the spot premium of domestic electrodeposited nickel was reported at -150 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, while the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 70 to 28,320 yuan per ton. Policy changes in the Indonesian mining sector and strengthened regulatory activities have made the support at the nickel ore end stronger again. After the holiday, Shanghai nickel turned up, but the fundamental surplus of primary nickel has not changed substantially, and the nickel price is still under pressure above. The rebound space should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to overseas market changes. The lower support has moved up to the 120,000 level [7] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 10th, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel reached a maximum of 124,880, then followed the sector down, closing at 122,180, a 0.76% drop from the previous day [7] - The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300, and the spot premium of domestic electrodeposited nickel was reported at -150 - 200 [7] - The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, while the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 70 to 28,320 yuan per ton [7] - Policy changes in the Indonesian mining sector and strengthened regulatory activities have made the support at the nickel ore end stronger again. The new RKAB regulations have changed from a three-year batch to a one-year batch, and the mining quotas for 2026 obtained by some enterprises have been invalidated. The Indonesian government has also taken over more than 148 hectares of mining areas in the Wedabay Industrial Park, affecting no more than 1.2 million wet tons of nickel ore production, and ordered 190 mining companies that have not paid reclamation deposits to suspend production for up to 60 days, with an estimated volume of about 3 million wet tons [7] - The entry of the world's second-largest copper mine into force majeure has triggered concerns about global metal supply. After the holiday, Shanghai nickel turned up, but the fundamental surplus of primary nickel has not changed substantially, and the nickel price is still under pressure above. The rebound space should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to overseas market changes. The lower support has moved up to the 120,000 level [7] Industry News - SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore to rise slightly in the second half of October, with a projected month-on-month increase of 0.27%. The HMA in the second half of October is 15,142 US dollars per dry ton, an increase of 40 US dollars per dry ton [10] - The HPM prices of nickel ore with different grades in the second half of October have all increased slightly compared to the first half of the month. For example, the HPM price of 1.2% nickel ore is 15.35 US dollars per wet ton, an increase of 0.04 US dollars per wet ton [10][12] - The Indonesian forest law enforcement task force will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. The task force has previously taken similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The prosecutor said that the focus of this action is to regain national control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may further enter criminal investigations [11] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and signing the United Nations Global Compact, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development [11] - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said at a press conference that regarding the financial reform content of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the next step, further communication will be made after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, macro - impacts are limited, and nickel prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,300 yuan/ton and closed at 124,480 yuan/ton, a 2.39% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 130,864 (+3,674) lots, and the open interest was 86,038 (9,898) lots. Domestic new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure during the National Day holiday strengthened the medium - to - long - term demand expectations for key metals in new energy and high - end manufacturing. Overseas, after the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, the market's bet on further easing at the late - October FOMC meeting increased, and the US dollar index slightly declined [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: After the holiday, the nickel - ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, and mine quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the nickel - ore market supply is in a continuous loose pattern, and the 10 - month (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 dollars. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has increased the uncertainty of medium - to - long - term production capacity release [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Driven by the collective rise of the non - ferrous sector and post - holiday restocking demand, the trading of refined nickel was fair, and the premiums of some brands increased slightly but remained stable overall [3]. - **Strategy** - The macro - impact on nickel prices is limited, and prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,770 yuan/ton and closed at 12,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,195 (-39,957) lots, and the open interest was 60,514 (-4,171) lots. On the first trading day after the holiday, although LME nickel rose sharply during the holiday, the stainless - steel contract opened lower due to the decline of the black - metal sector. It then rose in the afternoon driven by the increase in Shanghai nickel but failed to break through the resistance near 12,900 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot**: On the first day of resuming work after the holiday, the spot market remained sluggish as before the holiday, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. Affected by the rise in the Shanghai nickel futures price in the afternoon, the spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was still limited [5]. - **Strategy** - Due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recommended single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel price has fallen back to around the 120,000 mark. On the 29th, the main contract 2511 fell 0.61% to 121,100 compared with the previous day. There is still pressure of oversupply for pure nickel, but it is supported by nickel ore and costs at the current position and is hard to fall deeply. Recently, the prices of NPI and nickel sulfate are relatively strong. One should continue to pay attention to the supply-side news from Indonesia, and the bottom support reference for Shanghai nickel has been slightly raised to the 120,000 level. With the long holiday approaching, it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel fell 0.61% to 121,100 on the 29th compared with the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300 compared with the previous day, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 to 954.5 yuan per nickel point compared with the previous day, and the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 60 to 28,260 yuan per ton compared with the previous day [7] - Indonesia will start the approval work for 2026 in October. The adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the supply of nickel ore at the beginning of next year. Some smelters may stock up in advance in the fourth quarter to lock in nickel ore inventory. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will not fall deeply this year and may rise slightly. NPI remains strong supported by costs and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space for the stainless steel terminal is limited. The profit of nickel-iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be limited. The price of nickel salts remains strong supported by the pre-holiday stocking demand [7] - It is recommended to hold a light position during the long holiday to control risks [7] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months. The mining department's decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. It is expected that an official document will be issued this Sunday or next Monday. This news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is confirmed to be extended, it is expected that the inventory of smelting enterprises will remain below the safety level [8][10] - China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the next financial reform will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, Pan Gongsheng said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group announced a concentrated rectification of mines. Previously, the working group took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain the state's control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state-owned enterprise department [10] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development. The company has joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and promised to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signed up to join the United Nations Global Compact (UN Global Compact) [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The net surplus pressure of pure nickel still exists, but at the current position, it is also difficult to decline significantly due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Recently, the prices of NPI and nickel sulfate are relatively strong. Continue to pay attention to the supply-side news from Indonesia. The reference for the bottom support of Shanghai nickel has been slightly raised to the 120,000 level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) rose 1.08% to 122,990 compared to the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 20 to 2,300. The average price of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 to 955 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 50 to 28,200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October. The adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the supply of the ore end at the beginning of next year. Some smelters may stock up on nickel ore in advance in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will not decline significantly this year and may rise slightly. NPI remains strong due to cost support and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space for the stainless steel terminal is limited, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The demand for stockpiling before the double festivals supports the price of nickel salts to remain strong [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Congo's Cobalt Export Ban**: The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months. The decision is to allow the cobalt price to recover further and to have more time to implement the quota framework. The decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. If the ban is extended, it is expected to drive up the MHP cobalt coefficient and keep the smelting enterprises' inventory below the safety level [8][10] - **Indonesia's Mining Crackdown**: Indonesia's forest law enforcement task force will conduct a centralized crackdown on illegal mines. The country is a major producer of coal, nickel, tin, and copper, as well as the largest exporter of palm oil [10] - **FPX Nickel's Sustainability Initiatives**: FPX Nickel has joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and the United Nations Global Compact, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development [10]

免责声明:宏深规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的规货空营机构。已具备规货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料。本公 司时这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、特论称建议 仅供参考。不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规模投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：आ市有风险 人市需谨慎! 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM W 镍与不锈钢日评20250924:低位震荡 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-16 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 120730.00 | 121400.00 | 122610.00 | -670.00 | 1 m | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-24 宏观分歧渐起，镍不锈钢价格弱势震荡 市场分析 2025-09-23日沪镍主力合约2510开于121140元/吨，收于120730元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.58%，当日成交量 为52899（-13200）手，持仓量为37993（6250）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约低开低走，全天呈弱势震荡走势，最高121440元/吨，最低120500元/吨。宏观面来看， 继上周美联储降息 25 个基点后，美联储内部再现政策分歧，多位官员发声抑制降息预期，强调当前利率水平适宜， 对镍价形成一定压力。 镍矿方面：新一轮报价开出，菲律宾CNC矿山1.3%FOB31。近期受台风天气影响，部分沿海地区镍矿卸货受阻。 菲律宾方面，矿山报价维持坚挺。装船方面，苏里高等矿区未受影响，下游铁厂亏损仍存，对原料镍矿采购维持 谨慎压价心理。印尼方面，镍矿市场供应持续宽松格局。9月(二期)内贸基准价上涨0.2-0.3美元，内贸升水方面， 当前升水维持+24，升水区间为+23-24。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格123000元/吨，较上一个交易日下跌800元/吨。现货交投有所升温，各品牌 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel supply and demand changed little. The price rose slightly during the day and then fell back. The main contract 2510 closed at 121,400, up 0.07% from the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel remained flat at 2,350 compared with the previous day, and the premium and discount of domestic electrowon nickel were reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained flat at 954.5 yuan per nickel point compared with the previous day, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to rise by 30 to 28,150 yuan per ton. Indonesia will start the approval work for 2026 in October, and the adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the mine supply in the second half of the year. The nickel ore price has limited room to fall, and the support from the mine end has emerged again. NPI remains strong under the support of cost and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space of the stainless - steel terminal is limited, and the subsequent upward space is restricted. The nickel salt price rebounded due to the decline in production and low inventory, and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overall, the surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is still significant, which puts pressure on the nickel price. However, at the current position, it is also difficult to fall deeply due to the support of nickel ore and cost. It is expected to fluctuate mainly following the macro - sentiment, and the main operating range can be referred to 119,000 - 125,000 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price trends: The main contract 2510 of nickel rose 0.07% to 121,400. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was flat at 2,350, and the premium and discount of domestic electrowon nickel were -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was flat at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose 30 to 28,150 yuan per ton [8]. - Supply analysis: Indonesia's RKAB approval cycle adjustment may disrupt mine supply in the second half of the year, and nickel ore has limited room to fall. The surplus pressure of refined nickel in the primary nickel supply structure is significant [8]. - Demand analysis: NPI is strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space of the stainless - steel terminal is limited. Nickel salt price rebounded due to low production and inventory [8]. - Price forecast: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment, mainly in the range of 119,000 - 125,000 [8]. 2. Industry News - India's strategy: India can alleviate the supply shortage of key minerals such as nickel through three paths: strengthening local mining and processing, recycling associated products from existing mining processes, and promoting "urban mining" from e - waste. The Indian government and enterprises are working together, and the e - waste recycling potential is huge. India launched the National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM) in January this year with a total budget of 163 billion rupees and plans to attract state - owned enterprise investment of 180 billion rupees to reduce dependence on Chinese supply [9][10]. - Indonesia's action: Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. It has previously taken similar actions in the palm oil industry. The action aims to regain national control of forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits. Some cases may enter criminal investigations, and the seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department. Indonesia is a major producer of coal, nickel, tin, and copper and the largest exporter of palm oil [11]. - FPX Nickel's initiative: FPX Nickel participated in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025. It joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and committed to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signed the United Nations Global Compact, which reflects its long - standing values of environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility [11].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom support of nickel and stainless steel prices is relatively stable, and the prices are rising. Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding as inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks and material costs have risen. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,580 yuan/ton, a change of 1.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 102,679 (- 42,422) lots, and the open interest was 70,610 (- 2,030) lots. The night session of the main contract stabilized at a high level, standing above 122,000 yuan/ton. After the opening of the day session, it declined slightly but then rose with the overall metal sector, reaching a maximum of 122,900 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel Ore - The market remained calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. Downstream nickel - iron had a strong bullish sentiment, but iron plants were still in the red and were cautious in nickel - ore procurement. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars. The current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was generally average, and the premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand were slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,959 (+1,430) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 224,484 (- 600) tons [2]. Strategy for Nickel - Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, and the overall strategy is based on range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 13,070 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 180,934 (+180,934) lots, and the open interest was 133,829 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session trend was stable, but after the opening of the day session, affected by the price increase of a large domestic stainless - steel plant, the price rose strongly, reaching a maximum of 13,100 yuan/ton and slightly retracting at the close [3]. Spot - Affected by the rise of the futures price, the spot price increased. Although the acceptance of high - priced goods was low, inquiries increased significantly, market activity improved, and actual transactions were fair. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - With inventory decreasing for nine consecutive weeks and material costs rising, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].