1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, with a generally loose domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic edible oil supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic edible oil fundamental is neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and as it enters the production - reducing season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is rated as neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8722, with a basis of 172, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is rated as bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. It is rated as bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is slightly bearish, but the export data in January has increased, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reducing season. It is rated as neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9420, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is rated as bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is rated as bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. It is rated as bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9700 [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the production - reducing season. It is rated as neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10220, with a basis of 513, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is rated as bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. It is rated as bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [4] 3.4 Recent利多and利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a palm oil tremor season [5] - **利空**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamental is generally loose [5]