2025-10-23投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 证券代码：839979 油脂早报 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8442，基差114，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that palm oil prices will fluctuate at a low level. Although the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and there is a large inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil during the October production season, which suppresses prices, it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil inventory may reach an inflection point, and the progress of Indonesian biodiesel provides support at the bottom. Therefore, investors are advised to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [2][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Palm Oil Price Market Review The report presents a chart of the average price trend of 24 - degree palm oil (yuan/ton), but no specific analysis of the price trend is provided [4]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis The report shows a chart of China's palm oil import data, but no detailed analysis of the supply situation is given [6]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis The report provides a chart of the statistical average transaction price of palm oil (yuan/ton), but does not offer in - depth analysis of the demand situation [8]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report includes a chart of palm oil import costs and profits (yuan/ton), but no specific analysis of cost - profit is presented [11]. 5. Market Outlook The Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and the increase in risks has led to an enhanced risk - aversion sentiment among funds, resulting in continuous reduction of palm oil positions. The large inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil and the October production season suppress palm oil prices. However, the Malaysian palm oil inventory may reach an inflection point, and the progress of Indonesian biodiesel provides support at the bottom. Thus, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and investors should look for opportunities to go long at low prices [2][13].