【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 棕榈油：基本面矛盾有限，关注油价扰动 豆油：美豆成本支撑，区间运行为主 | | | 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,780 | 0.76% | 8,792 | 0.14% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,226 | 0.34% | 8,220 | -0.07% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,185 | 0.00% | 9,216 | 0.34% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,040 | 0.87% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 61.77 | 0.02% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 379,616 | -31517 | 393,602 | -3,369 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 242, ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 01 日 棕榈油：基本面矛盾匮乏，油价扰动为主 豆油：上下驱动均有限，区间操作 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：假期前随着宏观退潮、地缘缓和、产地出口放缓及节前避险情绪，棕榈油在前高位置成功受 阻回落至 8800 一线。节后地缘风险溢价抬升国际油价，基本面逻辑几乎延续节前，能提供的交易矛盾有 限，棕榈油 05 合约周涨 0.34%。 豆油：美豆整体缺乏南美天气炒作，虽传询价美豆支撑美豆价格，同时海关通行炒作等对国内豆系有 所支撑但持续性存疑，豆油周涨 2.03%；RVO 公布临近，美豆油延续强势逻辑，周涨 7%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马棕主要围绕原油题材小幅反弹，但基本面改善速度缓慢的情况下 POGO 价差走缩。节前 MPOB 公布马来 1 月库存顺利降至 281 万吨，减产幅度达到市场预期，但市场前期有所交易，且目前主要 关注斋月后是否会来到一个快速增产期，配合 3 月印尼加税、3-4 月印度可能仍在等待南美豆油的 ...

油脂日报 | 2026-02-27 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8714.00元/吨，环比变化-134元，幅度-1.51%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8198.00 元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.36%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9185.00元/吨，环比变化-59.00元，幅度-0.64%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8670.00元/吨，环比变化-120.00元，幅度-1.37%，现货基差P05-44.00，环比变化+14.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8500.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.35%，现货基差Y05+302.00，环比变 化+0.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9830.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.11%，现货基差OI05+645.00， 环比变化-51.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2026年2月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环 比上月同期减少16.78%，出油率环比上月同期增长0.1%，产量环比上月同期减少16.25%。加拿大菜籽(3月船期)C&F 价格567美元/吨，与上个交 ...

欧洲气温波动剧烈，关注菜籽产区 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8848.00元/吨，环比变化+24元，幅度+0.27%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8228.00 元/吨，环比变化+88.00元，幅度+1.08%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9244.00元/吨，环比变化+44.00元，幅度+0.48%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8790.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.23%，现货基差P05-58.00，环比变化 -44.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8530.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.83%，现货基差Y05+302.00， 环比变化-18.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9940.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差 OI05+696.00，环比变化-54.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，乌克兰农民联盟UAC表示，由于天气问题可能导致产量下降，该国2026年7-8月 到货的油菜籽收获的出口参考价格已从一个月前的每吨510-520美元升至每吨530-540美元。作为欧洲主要油菜籽种 植国和出口国，乌克兰2024 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views - Due to pre - holiday trading slump and factors such as South American soybean bumper harvest and the extension of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the prices of the three major oils are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8782.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan or 1.39% compared to the previous period [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8082.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.00 yuan or 0.35% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9047.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.00 yuan or 0.92% [1] Spot Prices and Basis - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8780.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.79%, and the spot basis was P05 - 2.00, an increase of 54.00 yuan [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was Y05 + 308.00, an increase of 28.00 yuan [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.00 yuan or 0.81%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 753.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] US Soybean Sales and Shipment - The net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 28.2 tons, down from 43.7 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, it was 0.1 tons, up from 0 tons the previous week [2] - The export shipments of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 112.9 tons, down from 138.8 tons the previous week [2] - The net sales of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 28.6 tons, up from 23.3 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, it remained 0 tons [2] - The cumulative sales of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year reached 1017.3 tons, up from 988.7 tons the previous week [2] - The export shipments of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 74.6 tons, down from 80.9 tons the previous week; the cumulative shipments were 507 tons, up from 432.4 tons the previous week; the unshipped volume was 510.3 tons, down from 556.3 tons the previous week [2] Brazilian Soybean Forecast - CONAB predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would reach 177.985 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5045 million tons or 3.8% [2] - The sown area of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was expected to reach 48.4344 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.0883 million hectares or 2.3% [2] - The soybean yield in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was expected to be 3.67 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 52.918 kilograms per hectare or 1.5% [2] Other Market Information - The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 in its February report, expecting a growth of 850,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 930,000 barrels per day [2] - The investigation period for anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed has been extended to March 9, 2026 [2] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 was 273,472 tons, a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The MPOB report was released, and the market for edible oils fluctuated. The overall report met market expectations [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.82% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 8,098 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan or 0.20%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 9,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan or 0.45% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 8,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 60 yuan, a decrease of 26 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 292 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.51%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 754 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan [1] Market News Summary - Argentina: In January, the export volume of soybean oil decreased from 562,000 tons in December to 460,000 - 480,000 tons (502,000 tons in the same period last year), and the export volume of soybean meal decreased from 2.05 million tons to 1.95 - 2 million tons (2.22 million tons in the same period last year). The soybean processing volume decreased, and it will continue to decline in February. The export volume of sunflower oil tripled to 100,000 tons compared to the same period last year, the export volume of sunflower meal increased from 105,000 tons to 150,000 - 160,000 tons, and the export volume of sunflower seeds was close to 100,000 tons. It is expected to continue to grow in February. The sunflower seed processing usually increases seasonally from February to March and will reach its peak after the new processing facilities are put into operation in April. The national sunflower seed harvest is 25% complete, and the output is expected to reach a record of 6.2 - 6.6 million tons (5.5 million tons in 2025 and 4.5 million tons in 2024) [2] - France: The French Ministry of Agriculture slightly increased the sown area forecast for winter soft wheat and rapeseed in 2026. The sown area of winter soft wheat is expected to reach 4.59 million hectares, slightly higher than the initial forecast of 4.56 million hectares in December last year. The sown area of rapeseed is forecast to increase from 1.34 million hectares estimated in December last year to 1.37 million hectares, an 8% increase compared to 2025 and 11.6% higher than the five - year average [2] - Malaysia: In January, the export volume of palm oil was 1,484,267 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%; the inventory was 2,815,493 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72%; the output was 1,577,454 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.78%; the import was 32,316 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%. From February 1 - 10, according to AmSpec, the export volume of palm oil was 399,995 tons, a 14.25% decrease compared to the same period last month; according to ITS, it was 451,340 tons, a 10.5% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment of palm oil is fluctuating, and the high - level volatility intensifies; soybean oil is in a range - bound adjustment [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力's closing price (day session) is 9,042 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.05%, and (night session) is 9,074 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.35%; soybean oil主力's closing price (day session) is 8,104 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.44%, and (night session) is 8,134 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.37%; rapeseed oil主力's closing price (day session) is 9,144 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.07%, and (night session) is 9,159 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.16%. The closing price of Malaysian palm oil主力 is 4,208 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.33% (day session) and 4,202 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.10% (night session). The closing price of CBOT soybean oil主力 is 55.63 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil主力 is 449,035 lots with an increase of 13,606 lots, and the open interest is 455,399 lots with a decrease of 13,432 lots; the trading volume of soybean oil主力 is 303,624 lots with an increase of 63,645 lots, and the open interest is 701,522 lots with a decrease of 13,010 lots; the trading volume of rapeseed oil主力 is 266,701 lots with an increase of 115,658 lots, and the open interest is 278,538 lots with a decrease of 6,705 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,180 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong is 8,670 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 10,090 yuan/ton with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is 1,095 dollars/ton with a decrease of 5 dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong is 138 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong is 566 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 946 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures is 102 yuan/ton (previous trading day), the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures is - 938 yuan/ton (previous trading day), the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil is 28 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil is 58 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 58 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Crop Yield Forecast**: Analysts expect Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 179.39 million tons, with a forecast range of 178 - 181.6 million tons, while USDA estimated 178 million tons in January. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.838 million tons, with a forecast range of 4.7 - 5.05 million tons, and USDA estimated 4.85 million tons in January [2] - **Palm Oil Production**: Malaysia's palm oil production in January is estimated to decrease by 14% to 1.57 million tons, with a 16.65% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, 8.96% in Sabah, 17.07% in Sarawak, and 11.09% in Borneo [3] - **Brazil's Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in February are expected to be 11.42 million tons, a significant increase from 9.73 million tons in the same period last year; the export of soybean meal in February is expected to be 1.63 million tons, compared with 1.5 million tons last year; the export of corn in February is expected to be 793,364 tons, compared with 1.32 million tons last year [3] - **Oil Mill Production**: 13% of the 16 oil mills stopped production before January 2026. The most oil mills (59%) plan to stop production between February 9 and 14, 15% between February 1 and 8, 5% in January, and only 2% after February 15. 5 oil mills have not determined the shutdown time, and only 2 oil mills plan to produce during the Spring Festival. Compared with 2025, most oil mills advanced the shutdown time, and one more oil mill was in operation during the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival from February 15 - 23, the total soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in the country was 50,300 tons, with an average daily crushing volume of 5,600 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with last year, and an average daily operation rate of 1.08%. Near the end of the holiday, some oil mills started to operate on February 22, and the crushing volume increased significantly by February 24, with the operation rate increasing by about 32%. After the Spring Festival, the operation of oil mills gradually increased. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume will recover to 193,500 tons on February 24, with an operation rate of 37.26%, and will continue to rise to over 300,000 tons per day on February 28, with an operation rate of 64.55% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Galaxy Futures' Daily Report on Oils and Fats [1] - Report Date: January 29, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil on the 2605 contract was 8382 yuan, up 56 yuan; palm oil was 9362 yuan, up 92 yuan; and rapeseed oil was 9446 yuan, up 116 yuan. The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes in different regions [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil was 88 yuan, up 2 yuan; palm oil was 68 yuan, up 8 yuan; and rapeseed oil was 69 yuan, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 05 - contract Y - P spread was (980) yuan, down 36 yuan; OI - Y was 1064 yuan, up 60 yuan; OI - P was 84 yuan, up 24 yuan; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.99, down 0.001 [2]. - **Import Profit**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was 1130 US dollars, and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1046 US dollars, with a negative import profit [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 4th week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 95.6 million tons, down 0.73 million tons from last week; palm oil was 74.2 million tons, down 0.38 million tons; and rapeseed oil was 25.2 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Anec data showed that Brazil exported 267,642 tons of soybeans from January 18 - 24 [4]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures price fluctuated slightly higher, up nearly 1%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory was 74.23 million tons, down 0.51% from last week. The basis was stable to weak, and the import profit was inverted. It was expected to maintain a high - inventory state with limited upside space [4]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated slightly higher. The actual soybean crushing volume last week was 2.1021 million tons, and the inventory was 95.6 million tons, down 0.76% from last week. The basis was stable. It was expected to have limited upside space [4][6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated higher, up over 1%. The coastal rapeseed crushing volume last week was 0 tons, and the inventory was 25.2 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The import profit was inverted. It was expected to continue de - stocking, and the near - month contract had limited downside space [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Short - term oils and fats are expected to fluctuate higher, but due to many uncertainties and no prominent contradictions, those without positions are advised to wait and not chase the high or rush to short [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt the strategy of buying the March contract and selling the May contract of rapeseed oil at low prices [8]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the basis of different oils and fats and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different contracts from 2017 - 2026 [11][12][15][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices support the firmness of the oil and fat market, and the prices of the three major oils were volatile yesterday. The data from shipping survey agencies shows that the recent exports of Malaysian palm oil have increased month - on - month, and the international crude oil has risen by about 3%, providing strong support for oil and fat prices [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,270.00 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan or +0.35% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68.00 yuan or +0.82%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,330.00 yuan/ton, a change of +4.00 yuan or +0.04% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,190.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 80.00, a change of -22.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,620.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan/ton or +0.94%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 294.00, a change of +12.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,160.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and a spot basis of OI05 + 830.00, a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop C&F Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 545 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 553 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 482 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 476 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Soybean Premium Quotes - The premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 243 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of US West Coast soybeans (February shipment) was 228 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of Brazilian port soybeans (February shipment) was 160 cents/bushel, with no change [2] C&F Prices of Imported Oils - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,202 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (May shipment) was 1,137 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, with no change. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with increased volatility and many uncertainties, and the contradictions are not prominent. It is recommended that those without positions temporarily wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short. For rapeseed oil, a long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts is recommended, and for options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract are 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The basis of each variety in different regions is given, with some showing no change in the basis. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 540 with no change [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 86, 74, and 61 respectively, with changes of - 2, 32, and - 29 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 980 with a change of - 114, the OI - Y spread is 1068 with a change of - 51, and the OI - P spread is 88 with a change of - 165. The oil - meal ratio is 2.99 with a change of 0.01 [2] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 130, and that of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 976 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 4th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 95.6, 74.2, and 25.2 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared with last week and the same period last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 746,745 tons, a 9.41% decrease compared with the same period last month [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment. The palm oil futures price fluctuated and closed up, rising more than 1%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil is 74.23 million tons, a 0.51% decrease from last week. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is stable and weak. It is expected that the de - stocking speed will be slow in the later stage [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1021 million tons, and the operating rate was 57.83%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 95.6 million tons, a 0.76% decrease from last week. The basis is stable. The inventory is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply is sufficient [5][7] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly down. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 23, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 25.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is supported. It is expected that the rapeseed oil will continue to de - stock, and the decline space of the near - month contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with many uncertainties. Those without positions are recommended to wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short [9] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: A long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts of rapeseed oil is recommended [10] - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of different oils and fats, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][19]