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印尼B50政策重启,油脂震荡上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 05:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is cautiously bullish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The restart of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is positive for the oil and fat prices, leading to an upward oscillation in the prices of the three major oils [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,930.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +162 yuan and a change rate of +1.66% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,714.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +26.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.30% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,891.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +14.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.14% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,670.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +40.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.42%. The spot basis was P05 - 260.00, with a month - on - month change of - 122.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,810.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 40.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of - 0.45%. The spot basis was Y05 + 96.00, with a month - on - month change of - 66.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,420.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +10.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.10%. The spot basis was OI05 + 529.00, with a month - on - month change of - 4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Agricultural Production in Brazil - The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 178.4 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 178 million tons - The estimated total corn production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 135.7 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 136.2 million tons - As of last Thursday, the sown area of the second - round corn in central and southern Brazil in 2026 has reached 99% of the expected area, and the harvested area of soybeans in the 2025/26 season has reached 75% of the expected area [2] Palm Oil Production in Malaysia - The estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 20 increased by 0.92%. Specifically, production in the Malay Peninsula decreased by 3.61%, in Sabah increased by 5.59%, in Sarawak increased by 9.87%, and in East Malaysia increased by 6.67% [2] Inventory of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - As of March 27, 2026, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 97,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week - The rapeseed oil inventory was 11,000 tons, remaining the same as last week [2]
大越期货油脂早报-20260331
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 01:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for oil prices is oscillating on the stronger side. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the export and price of new US soybeans. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand is improving. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up oil prices. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8810, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, but a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. It is bullish. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, but the export data in January shows an increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9660, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish. - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10304, with a basis of 413, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish. - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish. - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. It is bearish. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 11000 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high. - **Current Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].
大越期货油脂早报-20260330
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 03:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,800, and the basis is 112. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,700, and the basis is -68. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,340, and the basis is 453. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Bearish**: The edible oil prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic edible oil inventory continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]
大越期货油脂早报-20260327
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for oil prices is oscillating with a slight upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Tensions in Sino-US relations have affected the export of new US soybeans, putting pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up oil prices. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,646, with a basis of 174, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [2] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Same as soybean oil [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 95,000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46% [3] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Same as soybean oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,224, with a basis of 513, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44% [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. Palm oil is in the tremor season [5] -利空: Oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil inventories are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]
大越期货油脂早报-20260326
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 01:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, with a generally loose domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic edible oil supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic edible oil fundamental is neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and as it enters the production - reducing season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is rated as neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8722, with a basis of 172, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is rated as bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. It is rated as bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is slightly bearish, but the export data in January has increased, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reducing season. It is rated as neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9420, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is rated as bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is rated as bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. It is rated as bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9700 [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the production - reducing season. It is rated as neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10220, with a basis of 513, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is rated as bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. It is rated as bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [4] 3.4 Recent利多and利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a palm oil tremor season [5] - **利空**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamental is generally loose [5]
棕榈油:油价扰动持续,高位震荡运行,豆油:豆系驱动不大,上方空间有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 02:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are affected by oil price fluctuations and are expected to fluctuate at a high level; the upward space of soybean oil is limited due to weak drivers from the soybean sector [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 9,942 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.31%, and the night - session price was 9,588 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3.56%. The closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) was 8,740 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.30%, and the night - session price was 8,588 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1.74%. The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,950 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.75%, and the night - session price was 9,770 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1.81%. The price of CBOT soybean oil futures was 65.71 cents/pound with an increase of 0.31% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 465,152 lots, an increase of 57,742 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 317,752 lots, a decrease of 1,698 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures was 270,684 lots, an increase of 44,960 lots, and the open interest was 612,272 lots, an increase of 18,176 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures was 224,994 lots, an increase of 23,990 lots, and the open interest was 239,709 lots, an increase of 2,276 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,215 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 22 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 300 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 270 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 8 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,202 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 54 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 74 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 119 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 68%, 7 percentage points higher than the previous week but lagging behind 80% in the same period last year [2] - In the first three weeks of March, Brazil exported 9,501,524.99 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 633,435.00 tons, a 18% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in March last year [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [5]
大越期货油脂早报-20260323
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 02:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month. Entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8840, the basis is 212, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9740, the basis is 22, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10300, the basis is 424, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Unlikely**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]
现货市场表现清淡,油脂震荡调整
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 05:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market for oils and fats is sluggish, and prices are oscillating. Global economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may delay purchases and limit upward price movement. After a significant increase driven by crude oil prices, spot demand remains weak, leading to an adjustment in oils and fats prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Performance - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9796 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan or 1.07% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8616 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan or 0.89% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9854 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan or 0.76% [1] Spot Market Performance - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.31%, with a spot basis of P05 - 76 yuan, down 74 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8800 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.69%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 184 yuan, down 16 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10380 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 0.68%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 526 yuan, down 4 yuan [1] Recent Market News - Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) C&F price was 598 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton; (July shipment) was 607 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) C&F price was 1248 dollars/ton, up 56 dollars/ton; (June shipment) was 1216 dollars/ton, up 29 dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1150 dollars/ton, unchanged; (June shipment) was 1130 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) C&F price was 509 dollars/ton, unchanged; US West soybeans (April shipment) was 503 dollars/ton, unchanged; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was 480 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 222 cents/bushel, down 7 cents/bushel; US West Coast (April shipment) was 206 cents/bushel, down 7 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (April shipment) was 145 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel [2] - From March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 2.96% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.44% month - on - month, and production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects palm oil prices to remain above 4450 ringgit/ton due to strong energy prices and favorable palm - gasoline spreads [2] - International CNF quotes for palm oil continued to rise, increasing China's import costs. On March 18, the CNF quotes for 24 - degree palm oil for April and May shipments were 1200 dollars/ton and 1228 dollars/ton respectively, up 22 - 50 dollars/ton from the previous week [2]
棕榈油:高位易有恐慌,防范回调风险;豆油:豆系驱动有限,关注中美磋商进程
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 02:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is prone to panic at high levels, and investors should guard against callback risks [1] - The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is limited, and attention should be paid to the progress of China-US consultations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,796 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.07% increase and 9,738 yuan/ton at night with a -0.59% decrease; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,616 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.89% increase and 8,584 yuan/ton at night with a -0.37% decrease; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,854 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.76% increase and 9,865 yuan/ton at night with a 0.11% increase; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,612 ringgit/ton with a 1.77% increase; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 65.23 cents/pound with a -0.46% decrease [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 491,200 lots with a decrease of 90,211 lots and an open interest of 331,096 lots with a decrease of 1,763 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 251,021 lots with a decrease of 29,647 lots and an open interest of 594,494 lots with an increase of 9,710 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 192,755 lots with a decrease of 5,077 lots and an open interest of 234,514 lots with an increase of 5,030 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong was priced at 9,870 yuan/ton with a 10 yuan increase; first-grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,990 yuan/ton with a 40 yuan increase; fourth-grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 10,230 yuan/ton with a 110 yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price was 1,200 US dollars/ton with a 10 US dollars decrease [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 74 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 374 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 376 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 58 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was -1,180 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 90 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 86 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 146 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20, 2026, were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase compared to the same period last month [3] - SPPOMA data showed that from March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 2.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.44% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month [4][5] - A study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate; Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.32 - 4.32 million tons; Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons [5] - Abiove expects Brazil's soybean crushing volume in 2026 to reach a record 61.5 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 61 million tons; Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 177.85 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 177.12 million tons [5] - The IGC's latest monthly report shows that the global soybean production in the 2026/27 season is expected to increase by 16 million tons year - on - year to 442 million tons, the trade volume to increase by 3 million tons to 190 million tons, the consumption to increase by 12 million tons to 442 million tons, and the ending stocks to increase by 1 million tons to 79 million tons [5] - A farmer survey by Allendale Inc showed that US farmers plan to reduce the corn planting area by 5.2% year - on - year in 2026 and expand the soybean planting area by 5.5% [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is -1, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is -1 [7]
棕榈油:炒作题材频发,短期偏强基因仍在;豆油:豆系驱动有限,关注中美磋商进程
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 02:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil has frequent speculation themes and still has a short - term strong gene; soybean oil has limited drivers from the soybean system, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US consultation process [1] - The price outlook of edible oil remains unclear as weak import demand offsets the optimistic expectations of the biodiesel industry [4] 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,954 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.56% change and 9,876 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.78% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,644 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.83% change and 8,622 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.25% change; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,833 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 1.16% change and 9,814 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.19% change; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,583 ringgit/ton (day session) with a - 1.72% change and 4,591 ringgit/ton (night session) with a 0.22% change; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 65.89 cents/pound with a 3.05% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 566,741 lots with a change of - 251,773 lots and an open interest of 360,226 lots with a change of 560 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 310,196 lots with a change of - 53,950 lots and an open interest of 604,521 lots with a change of - 22,619 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 203,909 lots with a change of - 27,343 lots and an open interest of 233,669 lots with a change of - 11,060 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was priced at 9,960 yuan/ton with a - 80 yuan change; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,950 yuan/ton with a - 110 yuan change; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 10,150 yuan/ton with a - 140 yuan change; Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price was 1,220 dollars/ton with a 25 dollars change [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) had a basis of 6 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) had a basis of 306 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) had a basis of 317 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 121 yuan/ton (previous trading day) compared to - 62 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 1,310 yuan/ton compared to - 1,294 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 144 yuan/ton compared to 152 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 98 yuan/ton compared to 64 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 134 yuan/ton compared to 119 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - International companies suspended some Brazilian soybean exports last week, and the slow progress of Brazilian soybean harvesting has led to concerns about the tightening of imported soybean supply in China from March to April, resulting in a significant increase in soybean meal trading volume [2] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 15 was 443,812 tons, a 12.68% increase compared to the same period last month [3][4] - US President Trump has invited farmers and biofuel producers to an "agricultural celebration" at the White House on March 27. The US Environmental Protection Agency has submitted the draft biofuel blending quotas for 2026 and 2027 to the White House, and the final regulations are expected to be released by the end of March [4] - From July 2025 to early March 2026, EU's palm oil imports decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, reflecting a general decline in EU internal consumption. The German Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP) attributes this to the exclusion of palm - based biofuels from the calculation for meeting national quota obligations, which is planned to be implemented in 2030 and has been partially implemented by some member states. However, UFOP warns that the import of palm oil mill effluent (POME) may undermine this regulation. The total EU palm oil imports from July 1, 2025, to March 3, 2026, were about 1.9 million tons, lower than nearly 2 million tons in the same period last year [5] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [6]