Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil data in Southeast Asia has been gradually released, showing that the palm oil production in Southeast Asia in 2025 remained at a relatively high level, which met market expectations, and the market fluctuated [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,562 yuan/ton, a change of +62 yuan or +0.73% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 7,958 yuan/ton, a change of +46 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,095 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan or -0.38% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,500 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was P05 - 62 yuan, a change of -62 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,330 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 372 yuan, a change of -26 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan or -0.30%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 755 yuan, a change of +5 yuan [1] Market News Palm Oil Production Forecast - Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, 2.1% higher than the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons. The annual palm oil production in 2025 is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [2] - Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.32 - 4.32 million tons. The production in November dropped to 267,000 tons, a 15.1% decline from the previous month, and the cumulative production from January to November was 3.62 million tons, a 15.3% increase year - on - year [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to remain at 51.2 million tons, the same as the previous update [2] Market Conditions - As of the mid - day break, the March palm oil futures on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) rose 0.4% to 4,004 ringgit/ton, and once rose 0.9% to 4,024 ringgit/ton during the session. CBOT March soybean oil rose 0.2% to 49.51 cents/pound. The palm oil 2605 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.2% to 8,518 yuan/ton, and the May soybean oil rose 0.4% to 7,942 yuan/ton [2] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 5 increased by 31% month - on - month. The December inventory may have climbed for the 10th consecutive month, reaching a 7 - year high of 2.99 million tons [2] Outlook - Despite the surge in exports at the beginning of January and the expected significant decline in production, with the inventory approaching 3 million tons and weak demand, palm oil is difficult to recover significantly. The expected strengthening of the ringgit in the middle of the year and the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans are negative factors for palm oil demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Wait for the negative factors to be fully priced in and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [1] - Soybean oil: The unilateral price will mainly rebound within a range, and pay attention to the spread opportunities between different contract months [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,562 yuan/ton (up 0.73% during the day) and 8,594 yuan/ton (up 0.37% at night); Soybean oil主力 closed at 7,958 yuan/ton (up 0.58% during the day) and 7,974 yuan/ton (up 0.20% at night); Rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,095 yuan/ton (down 0.38% during the day) and 9,028 yuan/ton (down 0.74% at night); Malaysian palm主力 closed at 4,035 ringgit/ton (up 1.08% during the day) and 4,050 ringgit/ton (up 0.42% at night); CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 49.27 cents/pound (down 0.26%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 453,932 lots (an increase of 39,340) and an open interest of 393,568 lots (an increase of 2,512); Soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 297,201 lots (an increase of 34,187) and an open interest of 643,998 lots (an increase of 22,151); Rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 289,824 lots (an increase of 72,757) and an open interest of 228,469 lots (an increase of 8,124) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (with no price change); First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton (with no price change); Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,015 US dollars/ton (with no price change) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton; The basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 512 yuan/ton; The basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 955 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 533 yuan/ton; The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 604 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 110 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 150 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 14 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2024 was estimated to decrease by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons, with a 7.59% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, 0.6% in Sabah, and 2.41% in Sarawak [3][4] - Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, 2.1% higher than the previous estimate, with a range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons [4] - As of December 31, 2025, the total vegetable oil inventory in major ports in India was 914,310 tons, a decrease of 37,363 tons (3.93%) from December 15; The CPO inventory was 435,412 tons, a decrease of 47,606 tons (9.86%) from the previous period [4] - Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, with a stable yield increase, and the estimated range is 3.32 - 4.32 million tons. In November, the production dropped to 267,000 tons, a 15.1% decrease from the previous month, and the cumulative production from January to November was 3.62 million tons, a 15.3% year - on - year increase [4] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to remain at 51.2 million tons. Bad weather continues to affect field operations, and the EU weather model predicts complex weather conditions in the next 15 days [5] - The market expects the US soybean production report to maintain the production estimate of 4.253 billion bushels and the yield of 53.0 bushels/acre, and the global soybean production may decrease by 1.1% year - on - year [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [6]

油脂日报 | 2026-01-06 棕榈油产区库存预期累积，盘面承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8488.00元/吨，环比变化-96元，幅度-1.12%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7856.00 元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.08%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9044.00元/吨，环比变化-43.00元，幅度-0.47%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.93%，现货基差P05+2.00，环比变化+16.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8270.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y05+414.00，环比变 化+26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9780.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.51%，现货基差OI05+736.00， 环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据路透与彭博最新调查显示，市场普遍预计马来西亚2025年12月棕榈油库存将继续累积，或 创近期新高，尽管产量受季节性因素影响出现大幅下滑。库存（Stocks）：路透预期297万吨（环比+4.7%），彭 ...

证券代码：839979 每日观点 2026-01-06投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8254，基差398，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （来源：粮信网） 本周适逢元旦假期，国内油脂上涨乏力，三大油脂维持区间震荡整理。小长假前工厂均有停机检修计 划，部分工厂大豆到厂延迟或影响开机时间。那么周内外围油脂期价跌跌不休的状态下，国内油脂能否 逆势迎来一波上涨行情呢？ 美豆市场交投清淡 周内CBOT大豆期货以下跌为主，主因仍是围绕着出口疲软与南美丰产预期为主。首先，自10月份中美 关系缓和以来，中国采买进度影响美豆走势。据最新媒体报道称，中国在2025年已采购至少800万吨美 国大豆，逐步接近1200万吨的采购目标，已成交船货主要集中在12月至次年3月装船。但是由于中美之 间尚未达成正式贸易协议，市场对后续采购节奏仍存疑虑，这种不确定性被部分交易者视为压制大豆价 格的重要因素。其次，当下南美天气，特别是巴西天气相当不错，丰产可期，进入1月份巴西部分早熟 地块进入收割期。叠加美豆价格优势不明显，使得美豆未来压力重重。 周内棕榈油期价下跌 本周马来西亚棕榈油期价以下跌为主，周内跌幅2.42%。在刚刚结束的2025年，棕榈油期货下跌近9%， 主要因为棕榈油供应增长，出口需求面临印尼竞争，令吉汇 ...

策略 中性 阶段供应紧张，支撑豆油价格 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8658.00元/吨，环比变化+146元，幅度+1.72%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7878.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.77%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9086.00元/吨，环比变化+46.00元，幅度+0.51%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8590.00元/吨，环比变化+100.00元，幅度+1.18%，现货基差P05+-68.00，环比变 化-46.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8260.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.36%，现货基差Y05+382.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9830.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元，幅度+0.92%，现货基差 OI05+744.00，环比变化+44.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）表示，巴西12月大豆出口量预计为302万吨， 之前一周预计为357万吨。巴西12月玉米出口量预计为352万吨，之前一周预计为635万吨。巴西12月豆粕出口量预 计为187万吨， ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-30 油脂供应充足，盘面持续震荡 油脂观点 风险 政策变化 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8512.00元/吨，环比变化-56元，幅度-0.65%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7818.00 元/吨，环比变化-18.00元，幅度-0.23%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9040.00元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.07%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.59%，现货基差P05-22.00，环比变化+6.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8230.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y05+412.00，环比变 化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9740.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差OI05+700.00， 环比变化+46.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油（2月船期）C&F价格1140美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油（4月船 期）C&F价格1075美元/吨，与上个交 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-26 油脂驱动乏力，盘面震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8542.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.64%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7824.00 元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.77%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8981.00元/吨，环比变化+1.00元，幅度+0.01%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8500.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.24%，现货基差P05-42.00，环比变化 -34.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y05+366.00， 环比变化-80.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9630.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现货基差 OI05+649.00，环比变化+49.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(2月船期)C&F价格1124美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调22美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4 月船期)C&F价格1058美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调29美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(1 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-12-26投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8202，基差374，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-24 产量预期走低，棕榈底部震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8486.00元/吨，环比变化+72元，幅度+0.86%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7772.00 元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8847.00元/吨，环比变化-17.00元，幅度-0.19%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8430.00元/吨，环比变化+150.00元，幅度+1.81%，现货基差P05-56.00，环比变化 +78.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.37%，现货基差Y05+418.00， 环比变化+30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9400.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差 OI05+553.00，环比变化+87.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，欧盟委员会周二公布的数据显示，截至12月21日，欧盟2025/26年度（7月开始） 的大豆进口量已达600万吨，同比下降14%。同期欧盟菜籽进口总量为172万吨，同比下降41%。欧盟豆粕进口量 ...