Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil sector rebounded from a low level, and the strategy is mainly to conduct band buying. Rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 10000, and attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the development of China - Canada relations. There is a chance for a reverse spread between the January and May contracts of rapeseed oil. The current price of soybean oil around 8000 has limited downside space but is suppressed by high inventory in the short term. Palm oil is expected to see a reduction in production and inventory starting from November [8]. - If the increase in bio - fuel consumption squeezes global supply, palm oil prices may soar in the first quarter of next year [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Review**: The table shows the trading information of multiple futures contracts such as P2605, P2601, Y2605, etc., including pre - settlement price, opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the closing price of P2605 is 8796, up 22 or 0.25% [7]. - **Spot Price Basis**: In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil and the basis prices of different grades of rapeseed oil in different months are given. In the Guangdong market, the quotes of palm oil traders for different grades are provided [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the technical support below and the 1 - 5 reverse spread. For soybean oil, there is value in buying at the current price. For palm oil, conduct band buying as it is expected to reduce production and inventory [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - **Palm Oil Export**: From November 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 728,995 tons, a 15.5% decrease compared to the same period in October. Exports to China remained basically the same at 99,000 tons [11]. - **Palm Oil Production Forecast**: Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to drop from 49.4 million tons this year to 49 million tons, and Malaysia's production in 2026 is expected to reach 19.5 million tons, lower than this year's estimated 19.86 million tons. The global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons [11]. 3.3数据概览 - Multiple charts are presented, including the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China, the basis change of palm oil, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China, the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in East China, the basis change of soybean oil, the basis change of rapeseed oil, various price spreads of palm oil futures, the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and the US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][16][23][24][29][30].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Short - term negative factors are fully priced in, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [1]. - Soybean oil: With the stabilization of US soybeans, soybean oil will fluctuate strongly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume** - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.42%, and (night session) 8,688 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.09%. Trading volume is 585,987 lots, a decrease of 1,258 lots, and open interest is 419,635 lots, a decrease of 13,845 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,282 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.31%, and (night session) 8,284 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.02%. Trading volume is 275,749 lots, an increase of 29,309 lots, and open interest is 452,776 lots, a decrease of 6,967 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,880 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.43%, and (night session) 9,894 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.14%. Trading volume is 251,460 lots, a decrease of 12,202 lots, and open interest is 245,352 lots, a decrease of 3,228 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and basis is - 110 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,640 yuan/ton, unchanged, and basis is 358 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 10,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and basis is 430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads** - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: Previous trading day was 1,279 yuan/ton, and the day before was 1,223 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 398 yuan/ton, compared with - 388 yuan/ton previously [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia** - From November 1 - 15, 2025, palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.82% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.43% month - on - month, and production increased by 4.09% month - on - month [2]. - AmSpec: Export volume from November 1 - 15 was 702,692 tons, a 10% decrease compared with the same period last month [3]. - SGS: Estimated export volume from November 1 - 15 was 334,295 tons, a 44.9% decrease compared with the same period last month [5]. - Malaysia set the reference price for palm oil exports in December at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, with an export tax rate of 10.0%, compared with 4,262.23 ringgit/ton in November [5]. - **US Agriculture** - The USDA corrected the cumulative daily sales announcement. The sale of 130,000 tons of corn to Japan on October 24, 2025, was removed, and the sale of soybeans to China on November 3, 2025, was corrected from 232,000 tons to 132,000 tons [5]. - The USDA did not republish the weekly US crop growth report after the federal government resumed operation [5]. - **US Soybean Crushing** - In October, NOPA member companies crushed 227.647 million bushels of soybeans, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024, setting a new record. As of October 31, soybean oil inventory reached 1.305 billion pounds, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [6]. - **Brazilian Soybeans** - As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0%, compared with 58.4% last week, 73.8% last year, and a five - year average of 67.2% [7]. - In the first two weeks of November, Brazil exported 2,302,124.10 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 230,212.40 tons, a 71% increase compared with the average daily export volume in November last year [7]. - **Ukrainian Crops** - As of November 13, Ukraine harvested 47.937 million tons of grains and legumes on 9.826 million hectares of land, with an average yield of 4.88 tons per hectare. Among them, 4.654 million tons of soybeans were harvested on 1.96 million hectares of land, with an average yield of 2.38 tons per hectare [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, the expected record - high production in 2025 may pressure the benchmark price, but Indonesia's B85 policy supports the market. Dalian palm oil futures are in an upward - trending oscillation and may continue to strengthen in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline after facing resistance below 9000 yuan [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report's less - than - expected reduction in US soybean production led to a decline in CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, high inventory and weak downstream demand may cause short - term callbacks in Dalian soybean oil [1]. - **Corn**: Due to factors like farmers' price - holding, logistics issues, and demand from deep - processing and feed sectors, corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance. The price may rebound but is limited by supply pressure, with attention on the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - **Sugar**: India's export policy and Brazil's approaching end of the harvest season make the sugar market relatively calm. The price of raw sugar is expected to oscillate around 14 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar market is likely to maintain an oscillating trend next week [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton prices. In China, the short - term pressure from new cotton supply and weak downstream demand are offset by the relatively low inventory of spinning enterprises, resulting in short - term price pressure within a range [9]. - **Meal**: The USDA's November report lacks significant positive factors. With high domestic soybean inventory and expected reserve rotation, the meal market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [11]. - **Eggs**: High egg production inventory and weak demand lead to a short - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed and the willingness to support prices has increased, the market is expected to remain in a weak, oscillating state this week [15]. - **Pigs**: Weak spot prices and high market supply pressure the price, but there is support at low levels. The overall slow progress of November's planned slaughter may boost the price. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the basis was 334 yuan/ton, up 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the basis was - 54 yuan/ton, up 70.33%. The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton, down 8.89% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the basis was 367 yuan/ton, up 28.77% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread was 228 yuan/ton, up 2.70%; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton, down 13.73%; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread was 499 yuan/ton, up 1.63%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 732 yuan/ton, up 3.68%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1667 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.05% - 0.45%. The basis was 25 yuan/ton, up 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, up 5.63%. The price at Shekou was 2330 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The import profit was 301 yuan/ton, up 5.00%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 11.15%. The position was 1859009, down 1.16% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2505 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 5 yuan/ton, up 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 01 spread between starch and corn was 320 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The profit of Shandong starch was 35 yuan/ton, down 2.78%. The position was 301830, down 0.43% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5404 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.85 cents/pound, up 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 16.46%. The position of the main contract was 370242, down 2.99%. The number of warehouse receipts was 8622, up 11.67%; the effective forecast was 183, down 84.53% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 256 yuan/ton, up 12.78%; in Kunming, it was 136 yuan/ton, up 27.10%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 3978 yuan/ton, down 1.41%; (outside quota) was 5036 yuan/ton, down 1.47% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales were 1048.00 tons, up 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 tons, up 4.59%. The monthly sales in Guangxi were 26.66 tons, down 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60%; in Guangxi, it was 93.90%, up 4.80%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 tons, down 41.20%; in Guangxi, it was 44.21 tons, up 62.90%; in Yunnan, it was 33.65 tons, up 26.60%. Sugar imports were 55.00 tons, up 37.50% [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 300%. The position of the main contract was 556440, down 1.15%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4401, up 5.29%; the effective forecast was 643, down 26.77% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) was 14594 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The CC Index (3128B) was 14806 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The FC Index (M: 1%) was 12913 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1124 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1144 yuan/ton, up 1.78%. The spread between CC Index (3128B) and FC Index (M: 1%) was 1883 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 293.06 tons, up 70.4%; imports were 10.00 tons, up 42.9%; the bonded area inventory was 31.10 tons, up 8.0%. The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 3.5%. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 tons, up 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises was - 1796.60 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 1471.00 billion yuan, up 19.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 6.30%, up 34.0%. The year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports was - 9.10%, down 242.1%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and clothing accessories exports was - 15.96%, down 100.2% [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the basis was - 32 yuan/ton, down 52.38%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian ships in February was - 7 yuan/ton, down 800% [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the basis was 10 yuan/ton, up 25.00%. The import crushing profit of Canadian ships in January was 777 yuan/ton, down 3.48% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4215 yuan/ton, up 2.08%; the basis was - 295 yuan/ton, down 41.15%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the second - grade soybean contract was 3803 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; the basis was 147 yuan/ton, down 8.70% [11]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 244 yuan/ton, up 11.42%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 65 yuan/ton, up 3.17%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.02%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.67, down 1.40%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 560 yuan/ton, up 1.82%; the 2601 spread was 602 yuan/ton, up 3.97% [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG, down 0.23%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3235 yuan/500KG, down 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG, up 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.34%. The basis was - 51 yuan/500KG, down 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled chickens was 4.04 yuan/jin, up 0.25%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.34, down 1.68%. The breeding profit was - 26.52 yuan/feather, down 8.51% [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract was 582 yuan/ton, up 103.57%. The price of the 2605 - contract was 12195 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the price of the 2601 - contract was 11775 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 420 yuan/ton, down 12.00%. The position of the main contract was 130675, down 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton, up 60.0; in Shandong, it was 12190 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Sichuan, it was 11340 yuan/ton, down 60.0; in Liaoning, it was 11640 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Guangdong, it was 12450 yuan/ton, down 160.0; in Hunan, it was 11440 yuan/ton, down 70.0; in Hebei, it was 11970 yuan/ton, up 70.0 [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 162927, down 0.74%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.60 yuan, unchanged. The weekly price of piglets was 17.25 yuan/kg, up 1.47%; the weekly price of sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly slaughter weight was 128.48 kg, up 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit was - 115 yuan/head, down 28.70%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 206 yuan/head, down 17.15%. The monthly number of fertile sows was 40350000, down 0.07% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to take a wait - and - see approach. Palm oil should be treated as range - bound with a downward bias, soybean oil's basis is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and rapeseed oil's basis is supported by the near - term tight supply situation [5] Report's Core View - Supply: Palm oil is bearish in the near - term, soybean oil is neutral, and rapeseed oil is bearish overall but bullish in the near - term. Reasons include high palm oil inventories in Malaysia, expected increase in China's palm oil imports in Q4, limited positive impact from the USDA report, and short - term raw material shortages for rapeseed oil [5] - Demand: A wait - and - see approach is recommended. Factors include the active promotion of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the undetermined US biodiesel RVO, stable domestic consumption and export support for soybean oil, and the upcoming peak consumption season for rapeseed oil in winter [5] - Inventory: A wait - and - see approach is advised. China's total oil inventory remains high, rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages, palm oil has inventory replenishment expectations, and the destination of imported US soybeans for soybean oil needs attention [5] - Macro and Policy: Bearish. The USDA report's export data was lower than expected, Indonesia's B50 implementation has uncertainties, the US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain, and Canada plans to increase biodiesel production capacity [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Impact Factors: Analyzes supply, demand, inventory, and macro - policy factors, and provides corresponding investment views and trading strategies [5] - Trading Strategies: Suggests shorting the palm oil 01 contract, buying call options for protection, and conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on Y01 and shorting P01 [5] PART TWO: Market Review - Presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5 [7][11][12] PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [21][23][25] - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Displays data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [34][39] - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Presents data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [40][45] - India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference: Shows India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [46][50] - China's Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Displays data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit [52][54][56] - Weather and US Soybean Production: Shows the temperature and precipitation distribution in soybean - producing areas in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress [63][66][72] - US and Brazil Export Situation: Presents data on US soybean exports and Brazil's soybean exports [76][80] - China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Displays data on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory [90] - Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, as well as Canada's soil moisture [91][100] - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Presents data on rapeseed exports from producing areas and China's rapeseed arrivals [102][104] - China's Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Displays data on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory [109][113]

Report Information - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The oil and fat sector rebounded from a low level, and the strategy is mainly to go long in bands [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders quoted prices with Dongguan factories' third - grade rapeseed oil at 01 + 620 and first - grade rapeseed oil at 01 + 720. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil was 01 + 270 in November and 01 + 280 from December to January. Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes were stable [7] - **Market Analysis**: Rapeseed oil continuously increased positions and rose, showing the strongest trend. Due to the interruption of imported rapeseed supply, domestic coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing has not recovered, and rapeseed oil inventory has been continuously depleted. The domestic spot basis is stable with a slight upward trend. Soybean oil has limited downward price space based on import cost calculations and has buying value but is currently suppressed by high inventory. Palm oil is expected to see a decrease in production and inventory starting from November after the high - production reality in October was confirmed by the MPOB report [7] 2. Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Driven by favorable weather, improved labor supply, and high - yield new plantations, Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2025 is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, which may lead to higher - than - expected inventory and put pressure on the benchmark futures price [8] - **Export Data**: From November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 190,533 tons, a 49.5% decrease compared to the same period in October. Exports to China were 0.57 million tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons compared to the previous month [8] - **Price Spread**: On November 12, 2025, the price of Indonesian crude palm oil was $1,070, and that of Malaysian crude palm oil was equivalent to $987, with a price spread of $83, up $11 from the previous day and down from $102 in the same period last week [8] 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs of spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [12][13][20]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of palm oil is limited, and there is a risk of a second decline [1]. - With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil should continue to widen [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,744 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.30% change and 8,664 yuan/ton at night with a -0.91% change; soybean oil futures closed at 8,288 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.61% change; rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,840 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.66% change. The trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures decreased by 109,457, 37,411, and 52,411 lots respectively [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong is 8,610 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 10,210 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan. The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions is - 124 yuan/ton, 322 yuan/ton, and 370 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures is 1,096 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures is - 456 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil is - 90 yuan/ton, 224 yuan/ton, and 450 yuan/ton respectively [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, a 3.4% increase from last year. Production in November may decline by 9% month - on - month to 1.86 million tons, and then by 11% in December to 1.66 million tons. The export volume from November 1 - 10 is expected to be 190,533 tons, a 49.53% decrease from the same period last month [2][3]. - **Soybeans in the US**: Analysts expect that as of the week ending November 6, US soybean export sales will increase by 4.5 - 16 million tons, soybean meal export sales will increase by 0.5 - 4 million tons, and soybean oil export sales will increase by 0 - 0.25 million tons [3]. - **Soybeans in Brazil**: The 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to be 178.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous forecast [4]. - **Soybeans in Argentina**: As of the week ending November 5, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans reached 38.8346 million tons, and the cumulative sales of 2025/26 soybeans reached 4.1747 million tons [5]. - **Rapeseed in Ukraine**: The 2026/27 rapeseed production in Ukraine is expected to be 3.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.2 - 3.6 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [5]. - **Rapeseed in Australia**: The 2025/26 rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [6]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook; the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Daily Report on Oils and Fats [1][2] - Report Date: November 12, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 8288, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8548, 8598, and 8458 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 310, 260, and 170 respectively, with no change in the basis [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 8744, down 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8694, 8764, and 8854 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -50, 20, and 110 respectively, with no change in the basis [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 9840, up 65. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10190, 10340, and 10340 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 350, 500, and 500 respectively, with no change in the basis [2]. Month - to - Month Spreads - **Soybean Oil**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 224, up 12 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was -90, down 6 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 450, up 24 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was -456, up 76; the OI - Y spread was 1552, up 15; the OI - P spread was 1096, up 91; the oil - meal ratio was 2.71, up 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - The 24 - degree palm oil (from Malaysia & Indonesia) had a negative profit of -277, with a CNF price of 1057 in December. The Rotterdam rapeseed oil had a negative profit of -913, with a FOB price of 1080 in December [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventories (Week 45, 2025) - **Soybean Oil**: 115.7 tons this week, down from 121.6 tons last week and up from 107.8 tons last year [2]. - **Palm Oil**: 59.7 tons this week, up from 59.3 tons last week and up from 53.1 tons last year [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: 45.5 tons this week, down from 51.4 tons last week and up from 41.3 tons last year [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - As of the week ending November 5, Argentine farmers sold 28.67 tons of 24/25 - year soybeans, with 22.97 tons purchased by local oil mills and 5.7 tons by the export industry. They also sold 3.11 tons of 25/26 - year soybeans, with 2.62 tons purchased by local oil mills and 0.49 tons by the export industry. The total sales of all - year soybeans were 32.2 tons, and the cumulative sales reached 8398.43 tons. The cumulative export sales registration of 24/25 - year soybeans was 1226.4 tons, and that of 25/26 - year soybeans was 186.7 tons [4]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. As of November 7, the national commercial inventory was 59.73 tons, up 0.45 tons from last week (0.76% increase). The import profit was around -200, and the basis was stable. It may have a limited upward movement due to lack of drivers and suggests short - term long positions at low prices or continued observation [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 180.57 tons, and the operating rate was 49.67%. As of November 7, the commercial inventory was 115.72 tons, down 5.86 tons from last week (4.82% decrease). The inventory may decline slightly, but supply is still sufficient. It is expected to fluctuate, and suggests waiting for a pull - back to enter long positions [5][6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of November 7, the coastal inventory was 45.5 tons, down 5.9 tons from last week. The import profit was around -1100, and the basis was strong. It is recommended to go long on OI03 or 05 contracts on pull - backs [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral**: After a sharp decline, oils and fats have stabilized and rebounded technically. Palm oil may have limited upward movement, suggesting short - term long positions at low prices or continued observation [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Observation [8]. - **Options**: Observation [8]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts on the basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 1 - 5 month - to - month spread, P 1 - 5 month - to - month spread, OI 1 - 5 month - to - month spread, Y - P 01 spread, and OI - Y 01 spread [10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly with favorable weather in the producing areas, and Argentina has also started sowing, with over 4% progress. The USDA is expected to release a monthly supply and demand report this week, which will revise the September US soybean yield data and have a significant impact on the market [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,770 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.92% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,238 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,775 yuan/ton, a change of +188 yuan or +1.96% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,740 yuan/ton, a change of +140 yuan or +1.63%, and the spot basis was P01 - 30 yuan, a change of +60 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,430 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan/ton or +0.48%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 192 yuan, a change of +30 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,130 yuan/ton, a change of +190 yuan or +1.91%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 355 yuan, a change of +2 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Aggregation - Domestic soybean crushing: Last week, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills continued to decline significantly, falling short of market expectations and reaching a six - month low. The average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 52.94%, a decrease of 8.66% from the previous week's 61.60%. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 1.9862 million tons, a decrease of 324,900 tons from the previous week's 2.3111 million tons. Among them, the crushing volume of domestic soybeans was 53,200 tons, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans was 1.933 million tons. This week, the expected soybean processing volume is expected to rise again to 2.3302 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.11% [2] - Imported grain and oil prices: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 501 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (December shipment) was 496 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 495 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: 238 cents/bushel for the Gulf of Mexico (December shipment), a decrease of 5 cents/bushel; 225 cents/bushel for the US West Coast (December shipment), a decrease of 20 cents/bushel; 220 cents/bushel for Brazilian ports (December shipment), an increase of 3 cents/bushel. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 528 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 536 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,144 US dollars/ton, an increase of 17 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,138 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotes for imported rapeseed oil: 1,085 US dollars/ton for Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment), unchanged; 1,065 US dollars/ton for Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment), unchanged. The shipping freight from Southeast Asian palm oil (December shipment) to central China was 27 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the shipping freight from Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) to central China was 110 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the shipping freight from Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) to central China was 65 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - International production and export forecasts: As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, made from palm - oil - based fatty acid methyl esters (FAME). The Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025. From November 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.14% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4%, and the output decreased by 2.16%. It is predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 4.26 million tons, higher than the previous week's 3.77 million tons; the expected export of soybean meal is 2.47 million tons, higher than the previous week's 2.23 million tons; the expected export of corn is 6.04 million tons, higher than the previous week's 5.57 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - Palm oil is expected to stabilize in the short - term, but the rebound height is limited [1] - With the stabilization of US soybeans, soybean oil is likely to fluctuate with an upward bias [1] 3) Summary by Directory a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,690 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,708 yuan/ton with a 0.21% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,228 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,232 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase. Rapeseed oil's daily - session closing price was 9,587 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,642 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. Malaysian palm oil's daily - session closing price was 4,111 ringgit/ton with a 0.02% increase, and night - session closing price was 4,124 ringgit/ton with a 0.29% increase. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 50.53 cents/pound with a 1.71% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 530,809 lots, an increase of 29,032 lots compared to the previous day, and open interest was 424,116 lots, an increase of 8,067 lots. Soybean oil's trading volume was 251,903 lots, a decrease of 62,806 lots, and open interest was 462,461 lots, a decrease of 9,082 lots. Rapeseed oil's trading volume was 158,000 lots, a decrease of 6,344 lots, and open interest was 208,976 lots, a decrease of 1,514 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,560 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 130 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 322 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 343 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 897 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 462 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was - 102 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil was 230 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 413 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October increased by 4.4% to 2.46 million tons compared to the previous month. The production of crude palm oil in October increased by 11.02% to 2.04 million tons, and the export volume increased by 18.58% to 1.69 million tons [2] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 448,328 tons, a 9.5% decrease compared to the same period last month [3] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 459,320 tons, a 12.28% decrease compared to the same period last month [5] - Ind - Ra predicted that India's soybean oil imports in 2025 might jump by about 40% to 4.7 - 4.9 million tons. India's total edible oil imports were expected to slightly decrease to 15.5 million tons, and the import dependence would remain at about 55%. Palm oil imports in 2025 were expected to drop to about 8 million tons, lower than last year's 9 million tons [5] - Analysts' surveys showed that as of Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate was 96% and the corn harvest rate was 92%. Farmers were harvesting the highest - yielding corn in history, and soybeans were also expected to have a good harvest [5] - CONAB reported that as of November 8, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week, 66.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57.0% [6] - AgRural reported that as of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean sowing rate for the 2025/26 season had reached 61% [7] c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1, indicating a neutral trend strength [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report on Agricultural Products dated November 9, 2025, covering various agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Palm oil may temporarily show a situation of all negative factors being priced in after the release of next week's MPOB report, and the upward movement of palm oil prices depends on successful production cuts in the fourth quarter. Soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation but lacks an independent upward driver. Soybean meal and soybeans are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the USDA report and paying attention to trade sentiment. Corn futures are expected to be strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the listing of new grains. Sugar should focus on policy changes. Cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Live pig contradictions are accumulating, waiting for spot market confirmation [2][5][8][17][21][29][54][84][103] Group 4: Summary by Product Palm Oil - **Last Week's View and Logic**: The market was worried about high production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter, and palm oil 01 contract fell 1.59% last week. It may stabilize in the short - term, with support at 8400 - 8600, and there may be a second dip by the end of the year [4] - **This Week's View and Logic**: Malaysia's production may be above last year's level in the fourth quarter, and the inventory will slowly decline to around 2.3 million tons by the end of the year. Indonesia has large export pressure in November. International palm oil prices are suppressed, and there is no strong upward driver on the origin side. It may temporarily show a situation of all negative factors being priced in after the release of next week's MPOB report, and the upward movement depends on successful production cuts in the fourth quarter [5] Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View and Logic**: With good production conditions in Brazil, soybean oil followed the oil and fat sector to fluctuate weakly, but strong export demand and de - stocking made it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties. Soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.39% last week [4] - **This Week's View and Logic**: The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined rapidly, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure by the end of the year. In China, soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation but lacks an independent upward driver [8] Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Last Week's Situation**: US soybean futures prices fluctuated, and domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices were strongly oscillating due to trade concerns. International soybean market fundamentals included the suspension of the US export sales report, an increase in Brazilian soybean import costs, and a slowdown in Brazilian soybean planting progress [17] - **Next Week's Outlook**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybeans will oscillate. Pay attention to trade sentiment and wait for the 11 - month USDA supply - demand report [21] Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices fell last week. In the futures market, prices rose, driven by the increase in the northern port price and low inventory [29][30] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices rose, corn starch inventory increased, and attention should be paid to the listing of new grains. The short - term futures market is expected to be strong [31][32][33][34] Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the US dollar index rose, WTI crude oil and New York raw sugar prices fell. Domestically, the spot price of Guangxi sugar increased, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased [54][55] - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Domestically, it shows a weak reality, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [56] Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. New cotton costs are basically confirmed, and the market focus returns to supply - demand. There is no new upward driver currently, and it is expected to oscillate [84] Live Pigs - **This Week's Market Review**: In the spot market, pig prices weakly oscillated. In the futures market, prices oscillated and adjusted [103][104] - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to run weakly, and futures prices may face inventory pressure before the Spring Festival. The support level of the LH2601 contract is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,300 yuan/ton [105][106]