国际观察家指出，印度正在下一盘大棋。通过在上合组织的外交动作，莫迪政府显然希望在中美之间寻找新的平衡点。但问题是：在美国关税大棒和经济依 赖的双重压力下，印度这步棋究竟能走多远？未来几个月，美印贸易谈判的进展、印度与中俄的深度合作，都将成为观察这一问题的关键指标。 （本文作 者：国际时事观察员 张明） 面对美国的关税攻势，印度政府迅速调整策略。据新德里消息人士透露，印度商工部正在制定三项应对方案：一是为受影响企业提供出口退税；二是加快与 东盟国家的自贸谈判；三是扩大对欧盟市场的出口份额。这些举措都指向一个目标：降低对美国单一市场的依赖度。 在经济领域，印度正陷入两难困境。 一方面，印度高科技产业严重依赖美国的芯片技术和风险投资。以班加罗尔科技园为例，超过60%的初创企业都有美国资本背景。另一方面，印度制造业又 离不开中国的供应链支持。孟买商会的最新报告显示，印度制药业70%的原料药需要从中国进口。 这种双重依赖在美印贸易战中让印度左右为难。如果屈从美国压力，可能损害本土产业；若强硬对抗，又担心失去关键技术。莫迪政府在上合组织的沉默外 交或许正是这种困境的写照——既需要俄罗斯的能源支持，又不敢公开得罪中国，更不 ...

Core Points - The upcoming US-Russia high-level talks in Alaska are drawing significant attention in India due to a warning from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about potential punitive tariffs on Indian goods if no substantial progress is made on the Ukraine issue [1][3] - The core issue of friction lies in India's continued energy imports from Russia, which have surged from 3% in 2021 to approximately 35% by 2025, raising concerns in the US about indirect support for Russian military actions [3][5] - The Indian economy is facing multiple challenges, including a rising consumer price index and potential GDP growth reduction of about 1.2 percentage points if the 200% tariffs are implemented [5][15] Trade Relations - The US has already imposed a 50% tariff on certain Indian exports, with plans to increase it to 75% by August 27, causing anxiety among Indian businesses [1][5] - Long-standing structural issues exist in US-India trade relations, with previous criticisms from the Trump administration regarding India's tariff practices and a significant trade deficit of $45 billion [3][5] Diplomatic Efforts - The US is attempting to pressure India by calling on European nations to join in secondary sanctions, although European countries are cautious due to their economic ties with India [7][12] - India's government is promoting a "Buy Indian" strategy to support local exporters and has seen a rise in anti-US sentiment among the public [11][15] Energy and Economic Strategy - Russia continues to maintain energy cooperation with India through alternative trade methods, complicating India's position as it seeks to balance energy security and international diplomatic relations [9][15] - The Modi government faces a critical diplomatic challenge at the upcoming UN General Assembly, with significant stakes in negotiations over energy purchases from Russia and agricultural market access [12][15] Global Economic Implications - The potential for a 200% tariff could severely impact India's core industries and lead to a restructuring of global supply chains, particularly affecting sectors like IT, textiles, and pharmaceuticals [9][15] - The crisis highlights the vulnerabilities of emerging economies like India in the context of great power competition, contrasting with China's more resilient economic strategies [13][15]