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提质效果显现,分红大幅提升
HTSC· 2025-05-07 10:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 10.39 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to improve its operational income ratio, enhancing profit quality while reducing low-margin construction business and new investments [1][2]. - The company aims to continue reducing capital expenditures and increasing dividend payouts, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from waste disposal business is projected to be RMB 48.8 billion, a decrease of 20.8% year-on-year, with operational revenue increasing by 12.7% [2]. - The gross margin for waste disposal is expected to rise by 9.0 percentage points to 37.6% due to the decline in low-margin construction business [2]. - The company's attributable net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 20.2 billion, down 18.0% year-on-year, which is below previous expectations [1][5]. Joint Venture Performance - The company's share of profits from joint ventures is expected to be RMB 13.2 billion in 2024, a decrease of 20.8% year-on-year, but with signs of recovery in the second half of 2024 due to price recovery in the cement industry [3]. Investment Activities - The company has significantly reduced its cash outflow for investment activities to RMB 24.3 billion in 2024, down 46.8% from 2023 [4]. - The proposed dividend for 2024 is HKD 0.3 per share, with a special dividend of HKD 0.1, resulting in a total payout ratio of 32%, up from 13% in 2023 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for attributable net profit is adjusted to RMB 24.8 billion for 2025 and RMB 27.6 billion for 2026, reflecting a downward revision of 10% and 8% respectively [5]. - The target price is slightly adjusted downwards to HKD 10.39 based on a segment valuation method [5].