证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 09 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年10月09日 华源晨会精粹 20251009 固定收益 银行优先股：且配且珍惜——规模、条款设计与投资策略：银行优先股在 优先股市场中占据主导地位。商业银行优先股试点自 2014 年正式启动，是我国银行 业资本工具创新的重要里程碑。截至 2025 年 9 月 16 日，共有存续优先股 31 只， 总规模 7058.75 亿元，其中银行优先股 28 只，存续总规模 7011.50 亿元。银行为银 行优先股重要持有人。国有大行优先股二级成交规模较大，政策推动永续债发行使 优先股市场活跃度下降。当前对银行优先股的投资，应在充分考虑"赎回风险"前 提下采取防御型策略。在利率下行环境中，银行主动赎回优先股的动力较强。其中 固定溢价较高的优先股，因其未来付息成本较高，银行赎回旧券、重新低息融资的 动力较强烈，易遭遇"价值毁灭"，需重点警惕该风险。相反，固定溢价较低的优 先股，其股息支付压力相对较小，即使利率下行，银行主动赎回的动力也相对有限， 安全性更高。因此，建议采用防御型投资策略， ...

09月26日消息，截止14:51，垃圾发电板块大涨，启迪环境、世茂能源涨停，中环环保、中兰环保等个 股涨幅居前。 责任编辑：小浪快报 ...

09月26日消息，截止14:35，垃圾发电板块走强，启迪环境、世茂能源涨停，中环环保、中兰环保等个 股涨幅居前。 责任编辑：小浪快报 ...

Group 1: Green Electricity Direct Connection Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have jointly issued a notice to promote the development of green electricity direct connection, aiming to explore innovative models for the integration of new energy production and consumption [1] - The policy is the first national-level regulation regarding green electricity direct connection, balancing efficiency and fairness, and aims to optimize the power grid allocation mechanism [1] - The implementation of this policy is expected to facilitate the local consumption of new energy, meet actual green electricity demands, and reduce costs for end users [1] Group 2: Waste-to-Energy Industry Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, the waste-to-energy industry is expected to see a narrowing revenue decline in the first half of 2025, with performance stabilizing and improving trends in both operational and non-operational aspects [2] - Renewable energy subsidy funds have reached a high point since 2020, indicating that the profit and cash flow mismatch issues faced by waste-to-energy companies may be resolved, leading to potential revaluation of undervalued companies in the sector [2] - The industry is showing positive signals for dividends in the first half of 2025, with expectations for increased returns [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Everbright Environment (00257.HK) reported a 10% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, but a 23% increase in pre-tax profit when excluding one-time projects, exceeding expectations [3] - The company has increased its interim dividend by 1 Hong Kong cent, with a payout ratio of 42%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, and is expected to have an attractive annual yield of 6.5% [3] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 23% to 38%, reflecting improvements in gross margins and reduced impairment losses [3] Group 4: YUEFENG Environmental Protection Developments - YUEFENG Environmental Protection (01381) is a leading company in the waste-to-energy sector, having received a total of 3,331,857 green electricity certificates for its 13 waste incineration power projects [4] - The company’s Yingkou waste incineration project has been certified for carbon reduction, marking the first instance of a waste-to-energy project in China approved under the voluntary carbon standard in 12 years [4] - The company is expected to pursue low-carbon production and certification of emission reductions for more projects in the future [4]

Group 1: Green Electricity Direct Connection Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have jointly issued a notice to promote the development of green electricity direct connection, aiming to explore innovative models for the integration of new energy production and consumption [1] - The policy is the first national-level regulation regarding green electricity direct connection, balancing efficiency and fairness, and aims to facilitate local consumption of new energy and meet actual green electricity demands [1][2] - The policy supports the direct connection of new energy generation with data centers, enhancing energy efficiency and cost reduction for end users [1][2] Group 2: Waste-to-Energy Industry Outlook - The waste-to-energy industry is expected to see a narrowing decline in revenue in the first half of 2025, with signs of stabilization and improvement in both operational and non-operational aspects [2] - Renewable energy subsidy funds have reached a high point since 2020, indicating potential resolution of profit and cash flow mismatches for waste-to-energy companies, leading to a possible revaluation of undervalued firms [2] - Positive signals for industry dividends are emerging, with expectations for increased returns in the sector [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Everbright Environment (00257.HK) reported a 10% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, but a 23% increase in pre-tax profit when excluding one-time projects, exceeding expectations [3] - Everbright Environment's interim dividend increased by 1 Hong Kong cent, with a payout ratio of 42%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, and projected annual returns of 6.5% [3] - Guangdong Environmental Protection (01381) is a leading company in the waste-to-energy sector, having received over 3.3 million green electricity certificates for its projects, and is actively pursuing low-carbon production and emission reduction certifications [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Shunkong Development Co., Ltd. held an online performance briefing where management addressed various investor concerns, emphasizing their commitment to timely information disclosure and operational efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Business Development - The company will focus on water services, promoting integrated urban and rural water supply, enhancing wastewater treatment efficiency, and expanding water environment governance and industrial wastewater treatment [2]. - In the environmental protection sector, the company will concentrate on improving the quality of garbage power generation and transfer station projects, while also advancing investments in new energy projects [2]. - The packaging and printing business will continue to strengthen its core competitiveness, aiming to become a leading green packaging and printing enterprise in the region [2]. - The company is establishing a technology innovation platform to enhance research and development efforts [2]. Group 2: Shareholder and Market Management - The company has implemented several measures for market value management, including improving operational efficiency and reducing costs to support stable performance [2]. - The company has actively pursued acquisitions of controlling stakes in companies such as Shunhe Environmental Protection and Qingneng Environment to expand its upstream and downstream business [2]. - A proactive profit distribution policy has been implemented, with cumulative cash dividends from 2022 to 2024 expected to account for approximately 122% of the average annual net profit attributable to shareholders during the same period [2]. - The company is enhancing investor relations management to improve the timeliness and compliance of information disclosure, fostering better communication with the market [2].

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The company held an investor relations event on September 19, 2025, from 14:00 to 17:00, via an online platform [2] - The event included a performance briefing for investors and addressed various questions raised by them [2] Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - The company is focused on sustainable high-quality development, enhancing business outreach, and expanding into water environment governance and industrial wastewater treatment [3] - The company aims to strengthen its core competitiveness in the packaging and printing sector while actively responding to national dual carbon policies [3] Group 3: Shareholder Engagement and Market Stability - The company has implemented a profit distribution policy, with cumulative cash dividends from 2022 to 2024 expected to account for approximately 122% of the average annual net profit attributable to shareholders during that period [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of investor relations management, enhancing information disclosure, and ensuring compliance to protect investors' rights [3] Group 4: Stock Price and Market Factors - The company acknowledges that stock price fluctuations are influenced by various factors and commits to improving its operational efficiency and information disclosure [3] - The company has not disclosed any negative news that could impact stock performance and does not have plans to withdraw from the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aims to improve the pricing mechanism for nearby consumption of renewable energy, which is expected to create new opportunities for green electricity direct connection projects starting from October 1, 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy and Mechanism - The notification clarifies the economic responsibilities between nearby consumption projects and the public grid, allowing renewable energy projects to pay for supply reliability based on their needs [3][4]. - The new pricing mechanism is designed to enhance the willingness of the grid to provide stable supply services, facilitating the implementation of projects like waste incineration and green electricity direct connections [4][5]. Group 2: Project Requirements - Projects must have a clear interface, with power sources, loads, and storage connected as a whole to the public grid, ensuring safety and responsibility [3][4]. - Projects are required to have a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% of total available generation and 30% of total consumption, with new projects starting from 2030 needing a minimum of 35% [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Advantages - The economic feasibility of projects increases with higher load rates and smaller capacities connected to the public grid, as projects not connected to the grid are exempt from certain fees [4][5]. - For example, in Guangdong Province, the average market transaction price in 2025 is projected to be 0.3910 yuan per kWh, while the costs associated with grid connection and operation total 0.2721 yuan per kWh, leading to a total of 0.6631 yuan per kWh. Direct supply from waste incineration can offer a price advantage of 0.05 to 0.08 yuan per kWh compared to using grid electricity [5]. Group 4: Recommended Companies - The notification is expected to benefit companies involved in green electricity direct supply projects, with specific recommendations including Huanlan Environment, Yongxing Co., Conch Venture, Green Power Environmental Protection, Junxin Co., and Weiming Environmental Protection, while also suggesting attention to Wangneng Environment [5].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that Conch Venture's management plans to enhance profit by 1 billion yuan annually over the next two to three years through various measures [1] Group 1: Profit Enhancement Strategies - The company aims to improve waste-to-energy efficiency, expand steam sales, increase disposal fees, enhance the value of fly ash recovery, and reduce costs [1] Group 2: Cash Flow and Dividend Outlook - The recovery of operating cash flow is expected to benefit from the retrieval of national subsidy funds and a reduction in capital expenditure burdens [1] - With improved cash flow and reduced debt pressure, there is potential for an increase in dividend yield [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - Citigroup has raised its target price for the company from 10 HKD to 15 HKD while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share semi-annual report has concluded, revealing a number of companies with better-than-expected performance, particularly in sectors such as machinery, power equipment, electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - A total of 130 stocks were identified as having exceeded performance expectations in the first half of the year, with the machinery sector having the highest representation at 17 stocks [1] - 20 stocks reported a net profit growth of over 100% year-on-year, including companies that turned losses into profits [1] - Wanchen Group achieved the highest net profit growth, with a net profit of 472 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 503.59 times, driven by rapid store expansion and improved operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Notable Companies - Zhenlei Technology ranked second in net profit growth, reporting a net profit of 62 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07 times, benefiting from significant growth in orders in specialized fields [2] - Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic ranked third, with a net profit of 58 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.05 times, attributed to successful orders in the semiconductor sector [2] - Xinyi Sheng's stock price surged by 372.49% this year, with a net profit of 3.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 355.68%, supported by strong performance in optical modules [3] Group 3: Institutional Holdings - Among the 41 stocks with better-than-expected performance, 7 stocks had a market value of over 1 billion yuan held by social security funds, including Sany Heavy Industry and Yun Aluminum [3] - Yongxing Co. had the highest social security fund holding ratio at 6.53%, with significant operational metrics in waste incineration power generation [3] Group 4: Valuation Levels - Of the 41 stocks heavily held by social security funds, 25 had a rolling P/E ratio below 30, with Chengdu Bank having the lowest at 5.8 times, showing solid growth and asset quality [4]