1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material supply of ferronickel will face contraction pressure due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines, the decline in nickel ore grade, and the significant reduction of the RKAB plan in Indonesia next year [2] - The production profit of stainless steel plants has improved, but the increase in ferronickel prices has raised the cost support, and the increase in production is limited due to more maintenance at the end of the year [2] - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, but stainless steel exports still maintain high growth, showing strong export demand resilience. The overall social inventory of stainless steel in the country maintains a seasonal decline [2] - Technically, the position increases and the price is strong, with a strong long - position atmosphere. It is expected that the stainless steel futures price will be adjusted strongly, with support at MA5 and a range of 14,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 14,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the spread between the 02 - 03 contracts is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 15,751 lots, a decrease of 2,188 lots; the position of the main contract is 163,858 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 38,629 tons, an increase of 373 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 15,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of stainless steel is - 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 425 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 145,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) in the country is 1,050 yuan/ nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 538,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump's speech at Davos: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not seize it by force and seeks immediate negotiations. Later, Trump said that the US reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO and will not impose tariffs on Europe and Canada for the time being [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and middle - power countries should unite to resist coercion from some major powers [2] - Trump said he may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman, hopes to be like Greenspan, and again hinted that Hassett is "out" [2]