1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For nickel, the market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals, and it will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation. For stainless steel, it will follow the nickel price trend and also maintain an oscillatory state due to the influence of macro and policy factors [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 134,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 290,411 (- 45,931) lots, and the open interest was 164,700 (- 11,544) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policywise, the Indonesian export tax and nickel ore quota are still uncertain, but they support the price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the nickel ore shortage continues, and the price of nickel ore is expected to rise. The supply of nickel iron and refined nickel is sufficient, but the cost is stably supported. The production of MHP is hindered, and the price remains strong. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, providing stable demand support. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles meet expectations, but it is in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement. Ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand, while downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - According to Mysteel, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore still has room to rise, and the RKAB quota approval progress is slow. The premium of the mainstream pyrometallurgical ore plants is likely to remain stable next month, and some may increase by 1 - 2 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade ore price still has upward momentum. The price of Philippine nickel ore is weakening, and the traders' quotes are loosening. The 1.3% grade is quoted at 48 - 50 dollars/wet ton, and the CIF receiving price of the 1.4% grade is 71 dollars. Ocean freight may continue to decline, and the cost - side pressure is marginally relieved [2] - The Shanghai nickel price oscillated weakly during the day, and the center of the refined nickel spot price moved slightly downward. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, while that of other brands remained stable, with sufficient overall supply. Market trading became lighter, and downstream enterprises only made rigid - demand purchases, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to chase high prices. The implementation of the Indonesian export tax is uncertain, the cost support at the ore end is stable, the domestic refined nickel production is at a high level, and the spot resources are sufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 1,000 yuan/ton to 3,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,858 (+ 685) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 281,526 (- 48) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel will likely maintain a range - bound oscillation. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is to conduct range - based operations. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main stainless - steel contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,510 (- 1,569) lots, and the open interest was 97,783 (- 4,171) lots [3] - Stainless - steel prices mainly follow the nickel price trend and are greatly affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. On the supply side, steel mills maintain high production plans. According to Mysteel statistics, the estimated crude - steel production of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants in March 2026 was 3.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9895 million tons, an increase of 36.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The planned production in April is 3.6847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream demand is stable, but it is mainly on - demand procurement without stockpiling. In April, consumption is expected to continue to recover, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices [4] - Although the futures market has weakened, the stainless - steel spot market is generally stable, and traders' quotes mostly remain unchanged. Downstream terminals maintain rigid - demand purchases. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless - steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillatory state. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is neutral. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated March 31, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Inventory accumulation is slowing, and the ore end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [2][5] Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,120, with various changes in other indicators like volume and prices of related products [5] - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,370, with corresponding changes in volume and other related prices [5] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore as a new revenue source for the mining industry [5] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala [6] - Indonesia's approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons [7] - Philippine miners expect the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore to double [8] Inventory Tracking - On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons, while LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [11] - On March 26, SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons [11] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2][14] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 171,620, with changes in volume, open interest, and other related indicators [15] Macro and Industry News - Germany's federal government passed a climate protection plan, adding €8 billion in the next 4 years to achieve emission reduction goals [16] - The International Civil Aviation Organization issued new regulations on lithium - battery power banks [17] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption of production by upstream enterprises [2][19] - Polysilicon: Continue to oscillate and bottom - out [2][19] Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price was 8,480 yuan/ton, with changes in volume, open interest, and other related indicators [19] - For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price was 36,550 yuan/ton, with corresponding changes in volume and open interest [19] Macro and Industry News - The Cambodian government significantly reduced customs import and export taxes on various commodities, including solar systems and new - energy vehicles [19][21] Group 5: Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [12] - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [17] - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [21]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures, dated March 30, 2026 [1] Industry and Product Ratings - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows marginally, and the ore end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][4] - Stainless steel: Demand and cost are in a game, and steel prices fluctuate [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: Ore - end situations are fermenting, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment [2][14] - Industrial silicon: The upside space is limited [2][17] - Polysilicon: In a pattern of bottom - seeking through fluctuations [2][18] Core Views - Different commodities in the green finance and new energy fields have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, nickel is affected by ore - end cost and inventory, stainless steel by demand - cost game, lithium carbonate by ore - end situations and market sentiment, industrial silicon by limited upside space, and polysilicon by a bottom - seeking pattern [2] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,100 yuan, with a change compared to different time periods (e.g., +3,940 yuan compared to T - 5). The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 316,027 lots, showing a decrease of 96,279 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,390 yuan, and the trading volume was 177,353 lots [5] News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore. The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. ESDM has relevant production quota information, and there are also events such as mine accidents and company sanctions in Indonesia [5][6][8][9] Inventory - On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons [11] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [12] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, with corresponding changes in trading volume and open interest compared to different time periods. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan, showing price changes over different time intervals [14] News - Ford recalls 254,640 cars in the US. The escalation of the Middle East conflict leads to a shortage of natural gas supply in India, affecting the automotive industry [15][16] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2605 contract for industrial silicon was 8,625 yuan/ton, and for the PS2605 contract of polysilicon was 35,680 yuan/ton. There are corresponding data on trading volume, open interest, basis, price, and profit for both [18] News - Xinjiang holds a symposium on intellectual property protection in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to promote the in - depth integration of intellectual property protection and industrial innovation in the photovoltaic industry [18] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel and stainless - steel prices fluctuate widely this week. Policy disturbances push prices up mid - week, but limited breakthrough power due to macro - level impacts causes prices to decline again. The situation of the US - Iran war eases, and some traders bet on a near - term cease - fire. The Indonesian tax policy is still under discussion, and if implemented, it will strengthen the bottom space of the nickel industry chain. [3] - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless - steel futures is mainly influenced by macro factors and Indonesian policies. There is strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel due to the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season expectation. In the long - term, the trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, with Indonesian supply and new - energy demand being key factors. [4][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The nickel and stainless - steel markets show wide - range fluctuations. Policy disturbances and macro - level impacts are the main factors. The Indonesian tax policy and RKAB quota approval are important variables. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron shows different trends, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. [3] - The near - term trading logic is affected by macro and Indonesian policies, with strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel. The long - term trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, and new - energy demand may increase. [4][7] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and calendar - spread strategies of nickel and stainless - steel show no obvious arbitrage opportunities currently. [9] - The past trading strategies include buying and selling different nickel futures contracts and options, some of which have been closed with profits. [9] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, the price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 15,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. Risk - management strategies include shorting futures and options for inventory management and buying futures and options for procurement management. [10] - For stainless steel, the price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.48% and a historical percentile of 36.6%. Similar risk - management strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management. [11] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **Likely Positive Information**: Downstream stainless - steel demand recovers and inventory decreases. ESDM estimates the first - quarter approval quota to be 100 million tons, and plans to add tax - payment progress to the RKAB approval process. [12] - **Likely Negative Information**: The US dollar index strengthens, suppressing the metal market. The Fed's interest - rate hike expectation rises, and the implementation of the Indonesian nickel product windfall tax and export tax is postponed. [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures show a strong trend this week. The price once reaches 138,000, but then drops due to macro - level suppression. The fundamentals have peak - season expectations, with inventory and warehouse receipts decreasing, and stainless - steel downstream production increasing. The cash market shows price stability and strong demand recovery. [13] - The net positions of key profitable seats in nickel decrease, with more long - position liquidation during the upward movement. For stainless steel, trading volume and open interest increase during the mid - week recovery, and there are opportunities to go long at low prices considering the peak - season expectation. [14] - There are no obvious changes in the basis and calendar - spread structures of nickel and stainless - steel, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. [21] - **International Market**: The international market leads the domestic market, and the price hovers around 17,300. Indonesian policy disturbances have a stronger impact on the domestic market sentiment, while macro - level suppression is first reflected in the international market. There are frequent arbitrage opportunities between the domestic and international markets. The inventory of LME nickel decreases due to changes in delivery brands. [27] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the current downward range, the profit pressure of the nickel industry chain decreases after the disk rebound. The profit of integrated production of electrowon nickel from intermediates is high, the profit of pyrometallurgical production lines is still in a game, and the profit of nickel iron is also repaired. The price of upstream nickel ore is firm, and the downstream stainless - steel industry tries to lower raw - material prices. The profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel in the new - energy sector shrinks, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rises. [40] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain fluctuates more recently. Nickel ore production and shipment in Indonesia and the Philippines increase after the rainy season. ESDM expects to approve about 100 million tons of quotas in the first quarter, and the bottom support of nickel ore remains. The supply of nickel iron is expected to increase, but the domestic nickel - iron production is at a historical low due to cost competition. The supply of new - energy and intermediate products may decrease in the short - and medium - term. [42][43] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The valuation of nickel and stainless - steel is rising and adjusting. After the festival, upstream producers hold back supply and raise prices, and downstream demand in March and April is increasing. The new - energy chain shows a stable and strong price, with no obvious increase in marginal demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate. There is an expectation of battery export rush in April, but it has not fully affected the demand for nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly, and downstream demand is expected to increase in March and April. [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The price of Shanghai nickel has support from the cost of nickel ore due to Indonesian policies but is suppressed by the macro - situation and supply - demand pattern, making it difficult to have a definite one - way market. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [1][4]. - The stainless steel price is mainly affected by the nickel price. The supply growth expectation is stronger than the demand side, but there is still cost support. It is expected to follow the nickel price trend and maintain a shock in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 138,750 yuan/ton and closed at 135,860 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.41% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 412,306 (-48,075) lots, and the open interest was 179,895 (-8,929) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, and the inventory at home and abroad is increasing, with sufficient market supply. The demand side has stable support as stainless steel mills' profits improve and production resumes after the festival, and new - energy vehicle production and sales meet expectations but are in the off - season with limited month - on - month improvement. Also, the Middle - East situation affects sulfur supply and raises the production cost of nickel [1]. News - Nickel Industries Limited's Indonesian Hengjaya Mine has suspended operations due to a personnel casualty accident. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister may relax the production targets of coal and nickel in 2026. The US Department of Defense is formulating a military plan against Iran. The news has mixed impacts on nickel, mainly suppressing it [2]. - In Indonesia, nickel ore supply is tightening, and the operation uncertainty on the Big K Island increases due to the mine accident and the approaching rainy season. In the Philippines, the nickel ore quotation is firm, with the 1.3% ore CIF quoted at $65/wet ton [2]. Spot - The nickel price is strongly running during the day, but the spot trading is average. The market has shifted to the 2605 contract. The premium of Jinchuan nickel has dropped significantly due to cost reduction, and other brands have also slightly declined. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,593 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,240 (-216) tons [3]. Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel is expected to maintain an interval shock. The unilateral strategy is mainly interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened and closed at 14,390 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 183,602 (-38,355) lots, and the open interest was 120,397 (-4,171) lots [5]. - The stainless steel price is mainly affected by the nickel price. In terms of fundamentals, the total domestic stainless steel crude steel production in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The consumption in March is in a slow recovery process, and it is expected to continue to pick up in April, which provides bottom support for the price [5]. - Driven by the high - level operation of the futures market, the confidence in the spot market has recovered, and the inquiry and trading activity have increased. However, the downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and the spot price increase is relatively moderate. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 14,500 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 14,450 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 130 - 330 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - The short - term stainless steel is expected to follow the nickel price trend and maintain a shock. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - The current oversupply situation in the aluminum market has not been substantially reversed. Short - term strategy is to maintain a bearish view on rallies. For long - term, the global supply growth elasticity is limited, and the long - term bullish logic remains valid. The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate widely with macro - sentiment and geopolitical news, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract expected to trade between 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term raw material cost at a high level strongly supports the ADC12 price, but the demand follows slowly and the negative feedback effect of high prices is emerging. The market is expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [2]. Copper - In the short - term, the copper price is in an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved and the inventory pressure has weakened. The medium - to - long - term logic of copper supply - demand contradiction has not changed significantly. The short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed before the market risk appetite recovers significantly. The main focus is on the pressure around 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - In the context of supply improvement, high inventory, and limited macro - bullish factors, the zinc price is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - indicators, with the main focus on the support around 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel - The news of Indonesia's export tax has a short - term positive impact on sentiment. The macro - expectation is volatile. The contradiction in the raw material end supports the price, but the insufficient digestion of actual inventory is a constraint. The disk is expected to run in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 134,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Recently, the cost logic of stainless steel is strong. The news fermentation and the tight raw material end in reality provide support. The steel mill production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 14,800 yuan/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The war expectation is volatile, and the macro - sentiment has weakened again. The fundamentals are resilient but the marginal driving force is weakening. The mine - end disturbance still has room for fermentation, and the bottom support is still strong. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 150,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - The US - Iran conflict is at a stalemate, and the market risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced, causing the tin price to fall. The medium - to - long - term bullish logic still exists. If there are signs of the conflict ending, long positions can be established on dips [14]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is facing the pressure of oversupply with expected production growth. The cost end strongly supports the bottom. It is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to production control, environmental protection, and cost - end fluctuations [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to continue to fall. The market sentiment tends to trade for market - clearing, and the price is expected to fall towards the lowest cash cost. It is recommended to wait and see for now [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.05% to 23,510 yuan/ton, and the alumina prices in different regions had small increases or remained unchanged [1]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production of alumina, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum import volume increased and the export volume decreased. The开工 rates of some aluminum - related industries increased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods, as well as the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, showed different changes [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions decreased, and the price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum increased significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, as well as waste aluminum, decreased. The import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots also decreased. The开工 rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy industries decreased, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy showed a downward trend [2]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.28% to 95,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 80.31% [3]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production and import volume of electrolytic copper decreased. The import copper concentrate index decreased, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased slightly. The开工 rates of electrolytic copper and scrap copper rod - making industries increased, and the global visible inventory started to decline this week [3]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.35% to 22,840 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased significantly, and the export volume increased. The开工 rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide industries increased, and the domestic zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased [5]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.12% to 139,350 yuan/ton, and the prices of some nickel - related products and cost data showed different changes [7]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production decreased, and the import volume increased significantly. The SHFE inventory decreased slightly, the social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [7]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged, and the futures - spot price difference increased [10]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased, while Indonesia's decreased. The import and export volumes of stainless steel increased significantly, and the 300 - series social inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts increased slightly [10]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 2.62% to 156,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of other lithium - related products also had different changes [12]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased. The total inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory of lithium carbonate decreased [12]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.34% to 352,800 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased [14]. Fundamental Data - In February, the import of tin ore decreased, the production of refined tin decreased, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The开工 rates of tin - related industries decreased, and the inventory of tin decreased [14]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The prices of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased slightly [15]. Fundamental Data - The national and regional production of industrial silicon decreased, the开工 rates decreased, the production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon decreased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory increased slightly [15]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 1.85% to 39,750 yuan/ton, and the futures price decreased by 3.29% to 35,540 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased, the import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers had different changes, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The price of Shanghai nickel has support from Indonesian policy on the downside and is suppressed by the macro and supply - demand pattern on the upside, making it difficult to have a definite one - way market. Stainless steel prices are still mainly affected by nickel prices and are expected to remain volatile [2][4][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 25, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 133,920 yuan/ton and closed at 136,130 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 460,381 (+18,036) lots, and the open interest was 188,824 (+7,678) lots [2] - The nickel market is in a game state between policy and fundamentals. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, resulting in tight supply at the ore end, providing long - term support. Fundamentally, the supply side production continues to rise, and inventories at home and abroad are continuously increasing, with sufficient market supply. The demand side has stable support as stainless steel mills' profits improve and production resumes after the festival, and new energy vehicle production and sales meet expectations, but it is in the off - season of consumption with limited环比 improvement. The Middle East situation affects sulfur supply, raising the production cost of nickel [2] Macro and Supply - related Information - The US President Trump proposed a 15 - point cease - fire plan to Iran through a third - party, suspending the attack on Iranian energy facilities until March 27 and planning a one - month cease - fire negotiation period, but Iran denied the negotiation and refused the proposal. There may be a sign of easing in the geopolitical conflict, leading to a collective rebound in the non - ferrous metals sector. The Indonesian Finance Minister said that President Prabowo approved the levy of tariffs on coal and nickel exports on Wednesday, and the specific tax rate is still under discussion [3] - According to Mysteel, the nickel ore price in the Philippines is firm. Affected by the rising oil price in the Middle East, which pushes up the mining and transportation costs, the fluctuation of freight rates, and the weak procurement of iron plants, the ore price remains stable. The negotiation focus of Indonesian nickel ore has shifted upward. The RKAB quota approval is slow, about 160 million wet tons have been approved, the premium of domestic trade ore has strengthened, the premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore has reached $45 - 50/wet ton, and the mine plans to raise the premium next month [3] Spot Market - Affected by Indonesian policies, the spot price quotation has strengthened, but downstream enterprises are still waiting and watching, entering the market for procurement cautiously, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. The premium and discount quotations are slightly adjusted with the disk, but the fluctuation is not large. The premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 6,150 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,605 (-401) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,456 (-432) tons [3] Strategy - Recently, Shanghai nickel has shown strong resilience, maintaining a wide - range shock pattern in a macro - bearish environment, mainly due to the long - term support brought by the supply constraint of Indonesian ore. There are obvious differences between long and short positions. It is expected to remain in the range - shock state in the short term. The strategy is mainly range operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 25, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,290 yuan/ton and closed at 14,490 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 221,957 (-40,266) lots, and the open interest was 126,755 (-4,171) lots [4][5] - The price trend of stainless steel is still mainly affected by nickel prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the crude steel production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, increasing the supply pressure, and the operating rate of stainless steel plants remains high with sufficient production. On the consumption side, consumption is not good after the Spring Festival, social inventories continue to accumulate, suppressing price rebounds. Although there is an expectation of the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, short - term demand is difficult to improve significantly [5] Spot Market - The strengthening of the futures disk has driven the inquiry and transaction of stainless steel spot to pick up. Traders' quotations have slightly increased, but downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and the overall spot price fluctuation is limited. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+50) yuan/ton, the stainless steel price in the Foshan market is 14,350 (+50) yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of 304/2B is 125 to 325 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [5] Strategy - Fundamentally, the supply growth expectation is stronger than the demand side, but there is still cost support. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of the stainless steel trend. In the short term, stainless steel will still follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain a shock. The strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].