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化工装置深挖系列三,丁二烯上下游配套与边际装置分析(下)
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 11:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the marginal devices of various downstream products of butadiene, including their current status, production capacity, and sourcing of raw materials. The four major demand areas for butadiene, namely cis - polybutadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS, account for 86.45% of the total butadiene demand. The analysis is carried out in descending order of the demand ratio of externally - sourced raw material devices [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Preface The previous part of the series analyzed the marginal devices and regional device balance of butadiene itself. This part focuses on the marginal devices of butadiene's downstream products. The four major demand areas for butadiene are cis - polybutadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS, accounting for 86.45% of the total demand. The analysis will be conducted in descending order of the demand ratio of externally - sourced raw material devices [8]. 3.2 Butadiene Downstream Device Analysis 3.2.1 Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 38 sets of cis - polybutadiene rubber devices in China, with 5 shut down, 1 under construction, and 32 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 2.072 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 0.54 million tons (26.06%), state - owned enterprises is 1.472 million tons (71.04%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.06 million tons (2.9%). All use the polymerization method [9]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 2.112 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 1.23 million tons (59.36%), with state - owned devices accounting for 83%. The remaining over 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a total production capacity of 0.842 million tons, and the capacity in East China accounting for 88.12% [13]. 3.2.2 ABS Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 28 sets of ABS polymer devices in China, with 2 shut down, 5 under construction, and 21 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 9.165 million tons. The production capacity of state - owned enterprises is 6.72 million tons (73.3%), private enterprises is 1 million tons (10.9%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 1.445 million tons (15.77%). The emulsion grafting method accounts for 90.67% of the production capacity, and the bulk method accounts for 9.33% [16]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 9.165 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 2.34 million tons (25.53%), all of which are state - owned devices. The remaining 70% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a total production capacity of 6.825 million tons, and the capacity in East China accounting for 64.1% [20]. 3.2.3 SBS Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 30 sets of SBS devices in China, with 1 shut down, 3 under construction, and 26 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 1.845 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 0.44 million tons (23.85%), state - owned enterprises is 0.9 million tons (48.78%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.505 million tons (27.37%). The block anionic solution polymerization method accounts for 69.73% of the production capacity [25]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 1.845 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 0.38 million tons (20.6%), with state - owned devices accounting for 65%. The remaining nearly 80% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East and South China, with production capacities of 0.74 million tons and 0.655 million tons respectively, accounting for 39.59% and 39.25% [27]. 3.2.4 Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 29 sets of styrene - butadiene rubber devices in China, with 2 under construction, 25 in production, and 2 in long - term shutdown since 2018. The total production capacity of in - production devices is 1.765 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 0.1 million tons (5.67%), state - owned enterprises is 1.615 million tons (91.5%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.05 million tons (2.83%). The emulsion polymerization method accounts for 68.19% of the production capacity [32]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 1.765 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 1.055 million tons (59.77%), with state - owned devices accounting for 92.44%. The remaining 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a total production capacity of 0.71 million tons, and the capacity in East China accounting for 84.5% [34]. 3.2.5 Nitrile Latex Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 47 sets of nitrile latex devices in China, with 8 shut down, 2 under construction, and 37 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 2.012 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 1.122 million tons (55.77%), state - owned enterprises is 0.44 million tons (21.87%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.45 million tons (22.37%). All use the latex reactor device [38]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 2.012 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 0.3 million tons (14.9%), all of which are state - owned devices. The remaining 85% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with private enterprises as the main force [41]. 3.2.6 SEBS Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 15 sets of SEBS devices in China, with 3 under construction and 12 in production. The total production capacity is 460,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 70,000 tons (15.22%), state - owned enterprises is 275,000 tons (59.78%), foreign - funded enterprises is 95,000 tons (20.65%), and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - funded enterprises is 20,000 tons (4.35%). The block anionic solution polymerization method accounts for 56.52% of the production capacity [46]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: All SEBS devices in China need to source butadiene raw materials externally, mainly in East and South China. The device production capacity is small and scattered [49]. 3.2.7 Nitrile Rubber Device There are 5 sets of nitrile rubber devices in China, with a total production capacity of 285,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 185,000 tons (35.09%), and state - owned enterprises is 100,000 tons (64.91%). Private enterprise devices need to source raw materials externally, while the state - owned device has self - owned butadiene raw materials [52]. 3.2.8 Styrene - Butadiene Latex Device There are 9 sets of styrene - butadiene latex devices in China, with 1 under construction and 8 in production. The total production capacity is 245,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 190,000 tons (77.55%), state - owned enterprises is 50,000 tons (20.41%), and mixed - ownership enterprises is 5,000 tons (2.04%). The latex reactor device accounts for 100% of the production capacity [57]. 3.2.9 Pyridine - Butadiene Latex Device There are 5 sets of pyridine - butadiene latex devices in China, with 1 shut down and 4 in production. The total production capacity is 165,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 145,000 tons (87.88%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 20,000 tons (12.12%). The latex reactor device accounts for 100% of the production capacity [60]. 3.3 Summary - Cis - polybutadiene rubber: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 59.36%, with state - owned devices accounting for 83%. The remaining over 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a capacity accounting for 88.12% [65]. - ABS: The proportion of in - production devices with self - owned butadiene is 25.53%, all of which are state - owned devices. Nearly 75% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a capacity accounting for 64.1%, and the remaining devices are distributed in South, Northeast, and North China [65]. - SBS: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 20.6%, with state - owned devices accounting for 65%. Nearly 80% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East and South China, accounting for 39.59% and 39.25% respectively, and the remaining devices are in Central, North, and Northeast China [65]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 59.77%, with state - owned devices accounting for 94.3%. 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a capacity accounting for 84.5%, and the remaining devices are distributed in South, Northeast, and Central China [65]. - SEBS: All in - production devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East and South China, with capacity accounting for 39.19% and 31.08% respectively, and nearly 30% of the capacity in Central China [66]. - Nitrile latex: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 14.9%, all of which are state - owned devices. 85% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with private enterprises as the main force [66].