1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the log futures price, suggesting a long - position view given the unchanged strong post - holiday expectations [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Since late January 2026, the main trading logic for logs is the expectation of post - holiday spot price increases. Based on current research and the same period last year, the spot price of logs at major ports is expected to rise by about 30 yuan/m³ after the holiday. Taking the current spot price of 720 yuan/m³ for the cheapest deliverable 5.9 - meter small A in Shandong, the post - holiday price is expected to be around 750 yuan/m³, equivalent to a futures price of 810 yuan/m³. If there is a supply - demand mismatch due to a decline in arrivals after the holiday, the spot price may rise further. The decline in positions on Thursday and Friday last week is considered a profit - taking after the "good news is exhausted" following the announcement of the reduction of delivery locations by the Dalian Commodity Exchange. With the current 03 - contract price of about 780 yuan/m³ basically at par with the current spot price, the price is still viewed bullishly given the unchanged strong post - holiday expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - The main trading logic for logs from late January 2026 to the present is the expectation of post - holiday spot price increases. The expected post - holiday price increase at major ports is about 30 yuan/m³. The expected post - holiday price of 5.9 - meter small A in Shandong is around 750 yuan/m³, equivalent to a futures price of 810 yuan/m³. A possible supply - demand mismatch after the holiday may push up the spot price. The recent price decline is due to profit - taking after the "good news is exhausted" [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Log futures rose and then fell last week, mainly due to long - position profit - taking after the expectation of delivery location adjustment was settled. The overall upward logic remains unchanged [7]. - As of February 6, 2025, the total log futures contract positions were 14,192 lots, a 15.3% decrease from the previous week, and the main contract positions were 6,990 lots, a 31% week - on - week decrease [12]. - As of February 6, 2025, the spot prices of Shandong radiata pine for 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 680/750/850 yuan/m³, and for 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 720/770/940 yuan/m³. The spot prices of Jiangsu radiata pine for 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 720/780/800 yuan/m³, and for 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 780/820/840 yuan/m³ [16]. 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Import Volume - In December 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% month - on - month and 22.45% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total coniferous log imports were about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a 27.01% month - on - month and 13.02% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, China's total imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [22]. 3.3.2 Shipment Volume - In December 2025, about 52 ships of New Zealand logs left the port, a monthly increase of 3 ships, and the total shipment was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase from 1.892 million cubic meters in October. From January 24 - 30, 2026, a total of 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters of logs were shipped from New Zealand ports, a week - on - week increase of 1 ship and 30,000 cubic meters. Among them, 7 ships with 270,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a week - on - week increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters. In the past 4 weeks, a total of 28 ships with 1.06 million cubic meters were shipped from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 24 ships and 880,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 23 ships with 860,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 14 ships and 480,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [28]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a 4.46% week - on - week decrease; the radiata pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a 5.24% week - on - week decrease; the North American timber inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, an 8.33% week - on - week increase; the spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.92 million cubic meters, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 410,820 cubic meters, a 15.18% week - on - week decrease [35]. 3.3.4 Outbound Volume - From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, a 7.13% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 32,400 cubic meters, a 16.13% increase from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 22,800 cubic meters, a 2.98% decrease from the previous week [39]. 3.3.5 Wood Square Price and Processing Profit - As of January 30, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/m³; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,290 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/m³. The processing profit in Shandong was - 38.5 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/m³; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 10 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/m³ [41].