消息面 9月24日原木现货市场报价:山东3.9米中A辐射松原木现货价格为750元/方，较昨日持平，江苏4米中A辐 射松原木现货价格为770元/方，较昨日持平。供需关系上没有太大矛盾，强预期和弱现实博弈，现货成 交较弱，关注旺季现货端价格，进口数据，库存变化以及宏观预期市场情绪对价格的支撑。 新世纪期货： 整体来看，现货市场价格偏稳运行，本周原木到港预计环增，供应端趋紧，日均出库量减少，目前暂无 明显上涨动力，预计原木区间震荡。 中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.33万立方米，较上周降0.09。 机构观点 国新国证期货： 截止2025年9月22日当周，中国针叶原木港口样本库存量：292万m ，环比减少10万m ，库存转为去 化。 上周实际到港量23.56万方（-23.44），其中新西兰口径到港量21万方（-20.9）；本周新西兰预计到港量 将增加至33.6万方左右。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "volatile", indicating that the log futures are expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of logs is bearish as the number of departing ships from New Zealand and the total shipment volume decreased in August 2025, and some foreign merchants lowered their quotes. The demand, inventory, and trade profit are neutral. The overall investment view is that the log futures will be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes [3] - **Demand**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,400 cubic meters, a 5.65% decrease, and Jiangsu ports had 21,600 cubic meters, a 4.85% decrease [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters and a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters and a 2.05% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Trade Profit**: After the decline in the foreign market quotes, the import profit has been repaired. The import profit of domestic traders for 3.9 medium A logs is about - 38 yuan/m³ [3] - **Investment View**: The log futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategies for unilateral and arbitrage trading are provided. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Last week, the log futures contracts were in a weak and volatile state. The foreign market quotes dropped significantly in September 2025, and some spot specifications also declined. However, the inventory has not reached the inflection point of accumulation, so the overall trend is weak [7] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log futures and spot prices are presented in a graph, showing the relationship between the basis, futures closing price, and spot price [8] - **Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 22,108 lots, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 15,449 lots, a 4.4% decrease from the previous week [12] - **Spot Prices**: As of September 12, 2025, the prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu for different specifications are stable [16] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% month - on - month decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. The import volume from New Zealand and of radiata pine also showed different changes [20] - **Shipping and Shipment**: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from July [22] - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine is 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, with an import profit of about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, with an export profit of about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29] - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease. The inventory in different regions and of different species also changed [33] - **Outbound Volume**: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu ports also decreased [36] - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was 1,270 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged, and in Jiangsu, it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease [39]

Group 1 - The LG2507 futures contract successfully completed its delivery process, marking a significant milestone for the original wood futures market [1] - The LG2507 contract operated for 169 trading days, with a total trading volume of 4.3411 million lots and a transaction value of 321.328 billion yuan, averaging 25,700 lots traded daily [1] - The delivery involved 1,281 lots, equating to 115,290 cubic meters of original wood, with delivery prices ranging from 801 yuan to 828.5 yuan per cubic meter, totaling approximately 9.533 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Shandong Tengnuo Wood Industry Co., Ltd. completed 60 lots of delivery, allowing the company to lock in inventory costs and future processing profits [2] - Jiangsu Huihong International Group conducted a sell hedge operation on the LG2507 contract, completing 85 lots of delivery, which helped smooth their revenue curve [2] - The implementation of national standard measurements in the delivery process has improved quality assurance and reduced subjective quality assessments [2] Group 3 - Taicang Xinhai Port Development Co., Ltd. completed 425 lots of delivery, achieving an average delivery efficiency of 20 minutes per lot [3] - The quality inspection process for original wood futures adheres to strict national standards, enhancing transparency and trust between buyers and sellers [3] - The introduction of machine-based measurement in quality inspections ensures objective and traceable results, promoting standardization and efficiency in trade [3] Group 4 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to enhance the operational quality and service capabilities of the original wood futures market, focusing on market regulation and risk prevention [4] - The exchange aims to improve the delivery service system by expanding delivery resources and facilitating the connection between futures and spot markets [4] - Efforts will be made to support more wood enterprises in engaging in hedging, basis trading, and futures-to-spot transactions, promoting high-quality development in the wood industry [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "oscillating", with logs expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Log futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ under the influence of rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand. The trading strategy suggests spot registration for warehouse - receipt delivery, with attention to domestic demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 4 - 10, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 18 Chinese ports was 14, an increase of 8 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 133%. The total arrival volume was about 425,000 cubic meters, an increase of 204,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 92% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the available days of national log port inventory were 49.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20% and a month - on - month increase of 2.28% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 8, 2025, the trader's profit was - 55 yuan/m³, with a slight week - on - week increase [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 790 - 800 yuan/m³, equivalent to a delivery cost of 820 - 830 yuan/m³ [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated. The ebbing of commodity sentiment and the delivery cost calculated based on the import price formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and the decline in domestic port inventory provided some positive factors. It oscillated in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³. As of August 8, 2025, the total log futures contract positions were 31,497 lots, a 15.7% increase from last week; the positions of the main log futures contract 2509 were 20,650 lots, a 5.4% increase from last week [6][11]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 730/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/770/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total coniferous log imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, the imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.91%. In June 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, the imports of radiata pine were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.55% [21]. - **Shipping and Shipment Volume**: From August 2 - 8, 2025, a total of 10 ships with 360,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships with 290,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [24]. - **Trade Profit**: The increase in foreign quotes intensified the profit inversion of traders. As of July 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, flat week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The North American timber inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.26%. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, flat week - on - week. In terms of provincial inventory, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04% from last week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 960,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 5.55% from last week [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: As of August 1, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.04%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.69% and a month - on - month increase of 7.91% [38]. - **Downstream**: As of August 8, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1260 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 24 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week [42].