A 美联储9月降息预期持续升温 今年以来，全球经济整体呈现低速增长态势。在部分国家与美国达成关税协议后，经济衰退预期有所减弱，但前景仍不容乐观。在美国关税政策的影响下， 预计下半年全球经济增速进一步放缓。并且，受贸易摩擦、高利率以及地缘政治等多种因素的冲击，经济走势面临诸多不确定性。 根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的最新预测，2025年，全球经济增速预计为3%，较上一次预测上调了0.2个百分点。其中，美国、中国及欧元区的经济增速 均有小幅度上调，分别达到1.9%、4.8%以及1%。经济合作与发展组织（OECD）则将2025年全球经济增长预期从之前的3.1%下调至2.9%，将美国2025年 GDP增长预期从之前的2.2%下调至1.6%，预计欧元区2025年GDP增长1%，预计中国2025年GDP增长4.8%。 8月，美联储将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25%~4.5%不变，这是自今年1月以来，美联储连续第六次维持利率不变。然而，在随后召开的杰克逊霍尔 年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示对降息持开放态度，这一表态暗示9月美联储可能会降息。鲍威尔发表讲话后，市场对美联储9月降息25个基点的预期跃升至 90%以上，同时 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol (MEG), urea [27][30][34][41] - **Bearish Dominance**: Crude oil, LPG, PVC, methanol [1][23][37] - **Sideways with Bearish Bias**: L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [14][19][3] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause price fluctuations, but the supply - side pressure is increasing, and the price has a large downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][4][5] - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - side oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for downward compression. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][8][11] - L: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [14][17] - PP: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply is still under pressure in the medium term, and the upward drive is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, providing some support. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities [19][21] - PVC: The cost support is insufficient, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space of the disk is limited [23][25] - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options [27][28][29] - PTA: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in the operating load. Later, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [30][32][33] - MEG: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [34][35][36] - Methanol: The supply - side pressure has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels [37][38][40] - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] - Asphalt: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - Glass: The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with Brent rising 0.99% and SC rising 0.14%. WTI had no quote due to the holiday [4] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, the demand support for oil prices weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increases. The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, while India's crude oil imports decreased. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the strategic reserve increased [5][6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. It is recommended to try short positions lightly and focus on the SC range of [485 - 495] [7] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 1, the PG main contract closed at 4364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4486, and 4580 yuan/ton respectively [10] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG itself is not significant, and its price is mainly linked to the cost - side oil price. The geopolitical risk has increased, but the cost side still has downward space. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased, and the port inventory has decreased [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to move down. It is recommended to hold short positions and focus on the PG range of [4370 - 4470] [12] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan. The North China Ningxia Coal price was 7190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [16] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the peak season approaches in September, the supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some devices are planned to restart, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to try to go long on dips and focus on the L range of [7200 - 7350] [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The East China drawn wire market price was 6895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1205 [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Recent device restarts and new capacity releases will increase the supply pressure. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply - demand pattern is still loose in the medium term, and the high number of warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low absolute price, it is recommended to try short - term long positions on dips and focus on the PP range of [6900 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan. The Changzhou spot price was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [24] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of chlor - alkali is not well - supported, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. Some enterprises' maintenance has ended, and the export to India is expected to slow down [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space is limited. Focus on the V range of [4800 - 4950] [25] PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan. The PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [28] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The PXN spread is at a relatively high level this year, and the gasoline cracking spread has increased. The demand has weakened but is expected to improve. The PX inventory has decreased but is still relatively high [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions, look for opportunities to buy on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the PX511 range of [6820 - 6950] [29] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The spot price and basis both weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [31] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand is improving, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. The PTA inventory has decreased slightly but is still relatively high [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the TA01 range of [4750 - 4810] [33] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [35] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost support still exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the EG01 range of [4380 - 4450] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [37] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure has increased as the domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased. The demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The cost support has weakened [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels. Focus on the MA01 range of [2345 - 2395] [40] Urea - **Market Review**: The price of the urea contract has changed slightly, and the domestic and international spot prices have been relatively stable [41] - **Basic Logic**: The urea production is expected to gradually recover in mid - September. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The factory and port inventories have been accumulating [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the long - short game will intensify, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] Asphalt - **Core View**: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side oil price is expected to decline in the medium - long term, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The spot price in Shandong has decreased significantly, and the basis is at a low level [3] Glass - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The deep - processing orders have improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased, but the distributor and factory inventories in Hebei have started to accumulate. The daily melting volume is stable, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Soda Ash - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The enterprise inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. The upstream operating rate has declined, and the production is expected to remain high in September. The demand is mostly for rigid needs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with the LME copper inventory significantly increasing and the overseas Chilean copper mine resuming operations on the 10th. The domestic copper price is supported to some extent by the low inventory and the non - shrinking of smelters, but the overall market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [7]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong in the short term, as the market sentiment was pushed up by the suspension of production at CATL's mining end, and although the sentiment has cooled slightly today, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand side has shown increased activity [8][9]. - The crude oil market is complex. In the short term, it is tight during the peak season, but in the medium and long term, there is increasing downward pressure due to factors such as the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September, the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the IEA's adjustment of the global crude oil surplus [10]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future, affected by factors such as the decrease in asphalt production in August, the weakening of crude oil cost support, and the impact of rainfall on demand [11][12]. - The PP market is expected to fluctuate, with the downstream recovery slow, the inventory pressure high, and the cost side affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan [13]. - The plastic market is expected to fluctuate, with the consumption off - season not over, the inventory pressure large, but the potential boost from the start of agricultural film stocking [14][15]. - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward, with the supply increasing, the demand not substantially improved, and the inventory pressure still high [16]. - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the market sentiment pushed up by news, but the downstream resistant to price increases [18]. - The urea market is expected to have a weak consolidation in the short term, with the downstream demand weakening due to the impact of the parade, but the downward space limited due to export and subsequent demand support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 12, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Coking coal rose nearly 7%, soda ash rose over 5%, and several other commodities also had significant increases. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell 3%, and several other commodities fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, most rose, while among treasury bond futures, most fell [4]. - As of 15:10 on August 12, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601, iron ore 2601, and lithium carbonate 2511 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and glass 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Comment on Specific Varieties Copper - The suspension of the 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days and the US CPI data will affect the market. The supply is sufficient with the increase in copper concentrate imports, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The demand is weak due to the high - temperature and rainy season, but the terminal power grid performs well, and the inventory situation supports the domestic price to some extent [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and closed low today with an intraday increase of over 7%. The suspension of production at CATL's mining end is expected to reduce supply, and the cost side is supportive. The demand side has shown increased activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. Crude Oil - It is in the peak consumption season, with the US inventory at a low level. The OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the price is affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, the adjustment of the global surplus by the IEA, and the price adjustment of Saudi Aramco [10]. Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to decrease in August. The downstream road asphalt construction is affected by funds and weather. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, and the cost support is weakening, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11][12]. PP - The downstream start - up rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The cost is affected by the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan. The supply may increase with new capacity, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - The start - up rate is at a medium - high level. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but there are some signs of improvement in agricultural film orders. The cost is affected by external factors, and the inventory pressure is large, so it is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is still weak. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, so it is expected to fluctuate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The price opened high and rose in the afternoon. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand is strong, but the downstream is resistant to price increases, so it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18]. Urea - The production is expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand will be affected by the parade, but the downward space is limited due to export and subsequent demand support, so it is expected to have a weak consolidation [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is in a seasonal travel peak season, with US crude oil inventories at a low level. Although overall oil product inventories have increased, there are concerns about supply and demand. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, which may intensify the supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, adding medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is still uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased. It is recommended to operate in a range and be cautious [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to operate in a range. The market is worried about the decline in Russian and Iranian crude oil supplies due to political factors. The US economic concerns and OPEC+ production increase plan may lead to a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, increasing the medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2509 fell 0.63% to 501.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 497.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 510.9 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 854 to 31,576 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 growth rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week of August 1, US crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories decreased, while aviation kerosene and other oil product inventories increased [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, and its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of August 1 decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased, with gasoline demand decreasing and diesel demand increasing. The single - week supply of US crude oil products continued to decrease [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report This week, oil prices rose first and then fell, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets increasing. Trump issued a secondary tariff warning to Russia, causing market concerns about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although the actual export of Russian crude oil has decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to strengthen the near - term monthly spreads and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. After OPEC decided to increase production in September, oil prices quickly fell. From a macro perspective, the pressure of tariffs has been postponed, and the market is betting on a rate cut in September. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly this week, while US commercial inventories increased significantly. Global refinery profits declined, and the summer's main contradictions in the crude oil market have basically been realized. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after the statement of OPEC +, and it is expected to drop to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily News - A shale oil giant, Diamondback Energy, warned of an oversupply of crude oil. It will cut $100 million in capital expenditure, lower its production guidance, and postpone some fracturing operations. The company's CEO said that the growth of global crude oil supply in the second half of this year cannot be ignored. The company aims to keep oil production flat while cutting costs. The US domestic crude oil drilling activity has decreased by 12% and reached the lowest level in nearly four years. [3] - OPEC's crude oil production remained stable last month. Saudi Arabia's production cut of 220,000 barrels per day offset part of the impact of the UAE's production increase of 100,000 barrels per day. OPEC's average daily production in July was 28.31 million barrels, basically the same as the previous month. [4] - An analyst said that OPEC + will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting from September, which is in line with market expectations. Although the additional supply may put pressure on prices, OPEC +'s wait - and - see stance may limit the downside risk. A weaker - than - expected US employment report has raised concerns about the economy, which is a negative factor for oil. On the other hand, the potential interruption of Russian crude oil transportation may support the market. [4] 2. Weekly View - This week, oil prices rose first and then fell, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets increased. Trump's secondary tariff warning to Russia led to concerns about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although Russian crude oil exports have decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to strengthen the near - term monthly spreads and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. [5] - After OPEC decided to increase production in September, oil prices quickly fell, with Brent crude oil falling below the $70 per barrel mark. [5] - Macroscopically, the pressure of tariffs has been postponed, and the market is betting on a rate cut in September due to the poor July non - farm payrolls data. [5] - Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly this week, about 2% higher than the same period last year. US commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline inventories decreased while diesel inventories increased. Global refinery profits declined, and the summer's main contradictions in the crude oil market have basically been realized. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after the statement of OPEC +, and it is expected to drop to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [5] 3. EIA Report - In the week of July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day. [11] - US domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day. [11] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 1.84%. [11] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year. [11] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. [11] - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [11]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【页岩油巨头警告供给过剩，削减支出并暂停增产】8月5日消息，美国二叠纪盆地最大独立油企之一 Diamondback Energy警告，未来几月原油供应将大量涌入全球市场。该公司将削减1亿美元资本支出， 下调产量指引，推迟部分压裂作业。 CEO范特·霍夫致信投资者称，今年下半年全球原油供给增长预期 不容忽视。公司已为2025年余下时间业务做准备，削减开支同时保持石油产量持平。 这一表态呼应5月 预测，当时Diamondback称美国页岩油产量已触顶。此后美国国内原油钻井活动减少12%，降至近四年 来最低水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Diamondback Energy, one of the largest independent oil companies in the Permian Basin, warns of a significant influx of crude oil supply into the global market in the coming months [1] Company Actions - The company plans to cut capital expenditures by $100 million and lower its production guidance while postponing some fracking operations [1] - CEO Van't Hoff stated that the growth expectations for global crude oil supply in the second half of this year are substantial, indicating a strategic shift in operations [1] Industry Context - This statement aligns with Diamondback's previous prediction in May, where the company indicated that U.S. shale oil production had peaked [1] - Following this prediction, domestic crude oil drilling activity in the U.S. has decreased by 12%, reaching the lowest level in nearly four years [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump continues to challenge the Federal Reserve, criticizing Chairman Powell's performance and pushing for interest rate cuts, which could drive gold prices higher if the Fed responds to his pressure [2] - Trump's recent imposition of a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU may negatively impact the dollar's credibility, leading to a depreciation of the dollar that would benefit gold prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong short-term bullish trend for gold, with a focus on resistance at $3392 and support at $3343 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are creating uncertainty in the Middle East, which is expected to provide support for oil prices [4] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 424, suggesting a potential decline in U.S. crude oil production, which could also support oil prices [4] - The IEA's monthly report has raised oil supply forecasts for the next two years while lowering demand expectations, indicating limited upside potential for oil prices [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Recent strong performance in copper prices has led to a significant breakout above previous highs, suggesting a high probability of maintaining a strong short-term trend [7] - Short-term focus is on testing support at $5.35 after a strong upward movement [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, with indicators showing a downward trend below the 20-day moving average, raising concerns about further declines [8] - Attention is on testing support at 38879 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the main factors influencing the crude oil market are OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and global crude oil demand. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle, and with the global energy transition, there is a growing supply surplus, leading to limited upward momentum for oil prices and potential for a lower price center. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US-Iran nuclear talks, and US policies towards Venezuela increase price volatility but do not change the overall supply surplus situation. In June - July, which is the consumption peak season, oil prices may find some support and are expected to trade in a range with a gradually declining center. Recommended strategies include shorting on rallies, selling call options, or using bull spread options. The recommended trading ranges are WTI [55, 65] and SC [420, 500] [6][108]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Outlook**: In 2025, the crude oil market is mainly affected by OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and global demand. OPEC+ is expanding production, and combined with the global energy transition, there is a supply surplus. Geopolitical factors increase price volatility but do not change the supply - surplus trend. In June - July, oil prices may be supported by peak - season consumption and are expected to trade in a range with a declining center [6][108]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: On May 7, the People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion in long - term liquidity. As of May, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.2%. By July, the probability of unchanged rates is 76.6%, with a 22.9% chance of a 25 - basis - point cut and a 0.5% chance of a 50 - basis - point cut. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the expected growth rate for 2026 is 3% [6][27]. - **Supply and Demand, and Inventory**: - **Supply**: OPEC+ did not adjust production policies at the Wednesday meeting but proposed a mechanism for setting 2027 production benchmarks. There is a possibility of accelerated production increases in July. In April 2025, OPEC's production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 26.71 million barrels per day. The US crude oil production remained stable at 13.4 million barrels per day as of the week ending May 23 [7][43][47]. - **Demand**: The IEA's May report maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 740,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day. In May 2025, EIA, OPEC, and IEA predicted global crude oil demand at 10.371 million, 10.5 million, and 10.39 million barrels per day respectively, with year - on - year increases of 970,000, 130,000, and 740,000 barrels per day [7][52]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending May 23, US commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels to 440.36 million barrels, strategic reserves increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.31 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.44 million barrels to 223.08 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories decreased by 720,000 barrels to 103.41 million barrels. Chinese port inventories increased by 319,000 tons to 28.216 million tons, and Shandong refinery inventories increased by 23,000 tons to 2.499 million tons [7][71][75]. 2. Core Drivers - **OPEC+ Production Policies since 2017**: In 2017, OPEC+ implemented production cuts. Since October 2022, there have been multiple rounds of production cuts and extensions, with actual production decreasing by about 3 million barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait. The overall production cut implementation rate is 51.02% [10][12][14]. - **2025 OPEC+ Production Increase Path**: In 2025, OPEC+ has a production increase plan through quota increases and compensatory production cuts. It is expected that by the end of the year, the net increase in OPEC+ production will be about 1 million barrels per day [15][16][21]. 3. Price Spreads and Positions - **Cross - market Spreads**: The WTI monthly spread increased slightly. As of May 29, the M1 - M2 spread was $0.74 per barrel, and the M1 - M6 spread was $2.21 per barrel. The US refined product crack spreads declined, while the domestic refined product crack spreads rebounded [90][94][95]. - **Fund Positions**: No specific information on changes in WTI and Brent fund positions was provided. The SC warehouse receipt volume is low, and the total SC positions increased [102][104].