Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with the LME copper inventory significantly increasing and the overseas Chilean copper mine resuming operations on the 10th. The domestic copper price is supported to some extent by the low inventory and the non - shrinking of smelters, but the overall market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [7]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong in the short term, as the market sentiment was pushed up by the suspension of production at CATL's mining end, and although the sentiment has cooled slightly today, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand side has shown increased activity [8][9]. - The crude oil market is complex. In the short term, it is tight during the peak season, but in the medium and long term, there is increasing downward pressure due to factors such as the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September, the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the IEA's adjustment of the global crude oil surplus [10]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future, affected by factors such as the decrease in asphalt production in August, the weakening of crude oil cost support, and the impact of rainfall on demand [11][12]. - The PP market is expected to fluctuate, with the downstream recovery slow, the inventory pressure high, and the cost side affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan [13]. - The plastic market is expected to fluctuate, with the consumption off - season not over, the inventory pressure large, but the potential boost from the start of agricultural film stocking [14][15]. - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward, with the supply increasing, the demand not substantially improved, and the inventory pressure still high [16]. - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the market sentiment pushed up by news, but the downstream resistant to price increases [18]. - The urea market is expected to have a weak consolidation in the short term, with the downstream demand weakening due to the impact of the parade, but the downward space limited due to export and subsequent demand support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 12, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Coking coal rose nearly 7%, soda ash rose over 5%, and several other commodities also had significant increases. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell 3%, and several other commodities fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, most rose, while among treasury bond futures, most fell [4]. - As of 15:10 on August 12, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601, iron ore 2601, and lithium carbonate 2511 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and glass 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Comment on Specific Varieties Copper - The suspension of the 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days and the US CPI data will affect the market. The supply is sufficient with the increase in copper concentrate imports, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The demand is weak due to the high - temperature and rainy season, but the terminal power grid performs well, and the inventory situation supports the domestic price to some extent [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and closed low today with an intraday increase of over 7%. The suspension of production at CATL's mining end is expected to reduce supply, and the cost side is supportive. The demand side has shown increased activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. Crude Oil - It is in the peak consumption season, with the US inventory at a low level. The OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the price is affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, the adjustment of the global surplus by the IEA, and the price adjustment of Saudi Aramco [10]. Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to decrease in August. The downstream road asphalt construction is affected by funds and weather. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, and the cost support is weakening, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11][12]. PP - The downstream start - up rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The cost is affected by the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan. The supply may increase with new capacity, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - The start - up rate is at a medium - high level. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but there are some signs of improvement in agricultural film orders. The cost is affected by external factors, and the inventory pressure is large, so it is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is still weak. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, so it is expected to fluctuate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The price opened high and rose in the afternoon. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand is strong, but the downstream is resistant to price increases, so it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18]. Urea - The production is expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand will be affected by the parade, but the downward space is limited due to export and subsequent demand support, so it is expected to have a weak consolidation [19].

【冠通研究】 原油：高开下行 制作日期：2025年8月7日 【策略分析】 原油仍处于季节性出行旺季，美国原油库存降至低位，EIA数据显示原油及汽柴油库存下降，只 是航空煤油及其他油品库存增加较多，整体油品库存有所增加。8月3日，OPEC+自愿减产8国决定9月 增产54.8万桶/日，这样提前一年解除2023年11月实施的220万桶/日自愿减产措施。不过，夏季消费 旺季下，沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油9月对亚洲的官方售价上调至每桶较阿曼/迪拜均价高 出3.20美元，较8月上涨1美元。IEA调高了2025年全球原油过剩量，但也表示近期旺季偏紧。7月29日， 特朗普表示对普京已经失望透顶，将原先设定的50天最后通牒期限大幅缩减到10天，此外，特朗普 称要对采购俄罗斯能源和武器的印度进行罚款，同时美国财政部对伊朗沙姆哈尼控制的国际航运网 络等进行制裁，市场担忧俄罗斯和伊朗原油供给下降。不过，美国7月新增就业远低于预期，6月和5 月新增就业大幅下调，引发市场对于美国经济的担忧，另外，8月3日的OPEC+计划9月增产54.8万桶/ 日，将加剧四季度的原油供给过剩。目前特朗普称中东特使威特科夫与俄罗斯总统普京之间的会谈 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report This week, oil prices rose first and then fell, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets increasing. Trump issued a secondary tariff warning to Russia, causing market concerns about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although the actual export of Russian crude oil has decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to strengthen the near - term monthly spreads and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. After OPEC decided to increase production in September, oil prices quickly fell. From a macro perspective, the pressure of tariffs has been postponed, and the market is betting on a rate cut in September. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly this week, while US commercial inventories increased significantly. Global refinery profits declined, and the summer's main contradictions in the crude oil market have basically been realized. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after the statement of OPEC +, and it is expected to drop to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily News - A shale oil giant, Diamondback Energy, warned of an oversupply of crude oil. It will cut $100 million in capital expenditure, lower its production guidance, and postpone some fracturing operations. The company's CEO said that the growth of global crude oil supply in the second half of this year cannot be ignored. The company aims to keep oil production flat while cutting costs. The US domestic crude oil drilling activity has decreased by 12% and reached the lowest level in nearly four years. [3] - OPEC's crude oil production remained stable last month. Saudi Arabia's production cut of 220,000 barrels per day offset part of the impact of the UAE's production increase of 100,000 barrels per day. OPEC's average daily production in July was 28.31 million barrels, basically the same as the previous month. [4] - An analyst said that OPEC + will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting from September, which is in line with market expectations. Although the additional supply may put pressure on prices, OPEC +'s wait - and - see stance may limit the downside risk. A weaker - than - expected US employment report has raised concerns about the economy, which is a negative factor for oil. On the other hand, the potential interruption of Russian crude oil transportation may support the market. [4] 2. Weekly View - This week, oil prices rose first and then fell, and the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets increased. Trump's secondary tariff warning to Russia led to concerns about a decline in global crude oil supply. Although Russian crude oil exports have decreased, even in the case of extreme sanctions, it will not change the oversupply pattern. The market tends to strengthen the near - term monthly spreads and take a wait - and - see attitude towards medium - term absolute prices. [5] - After OPEC decided to increase production in September, oil prices quickly fell, with Brent crude oil falling below the $70 per barrel mark. [5] - Macroscopically, the pressure of tariffs has been postponed, and the market is betting on a rate cut in September due to the poor July non - farm payrolls data. [5] - Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly this week, about 2% higher than the same period last year. US commercial inventories increased significantly, the number of oil rigs decreased again, gasoline inventories decreased while diesel inventories increased. Global refinery profits declined, and the summer's main contradictions in the crude oil market have basically been realized. The absolute price of oil is expected to continue to fall after the statement of OPEC +, and it is expected to drop to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. [5] 3. EIA Report - In the week of July 25, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.157 million barrels per day to 2.698 million barrels per day. [11] - US domestic crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels to 13.314 million barrels per day. [11] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 7.698 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 1.84%. [11] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.801 million barrels per day, a 1.55% increase compared to the same period last year. [11] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. [11] - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.136 million barrels per day, an increase of 160,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [11]

Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump continues to challenge the Federal Reserve, criticizing Chairman Powell's performance and pushing for interest rate cuts, which could drive gold prices higher if the Fed responds to his pressure [2] - Trump's recent imposition of a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU may negatively impact the dollar's credibility, leading to a depreciation of the dollar that would benefit gold prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong short-term bullish trend for gold, with a focus on resistance at $3392 and support at $3343 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are creating uncertainty in the Middle East, which is expected to provide support for oil prices [4] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 424, suggesting a potential decline in U.S. crude oil production, which could also support oil prices [4] - The IEA's monthly report has raised oil supply forecasts for the next two years while lowering demand expectations, indicating limited upside potential for oil prices [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Recent strong performance in copper prices has led to a significant breakout above previous highs, suggesting a high probability of maintaining a strong short-term trend [7] - Short-term focus is on testing support at $5.35 after a strong upward movement [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, with indicators showing a downward trend below the 20-day moving average, raising concerns about further declines [8] - Attention is on testing support at 38879 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the main factors influencing the crude oil market are OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and global crude oil demand. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle, and with the global energy transition, there is a growing supply surplus, leading to limited upward momentum for oil prices and potential for a lower price center. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US-Iran nuclear talks, and US policies towards Venezuela increase price volatility but do not change the overall supply surplus situation. In June - July, which is the consumption peak season, oil prices may find some support and are expected to trade in a range with a gradually declining center. Recommended strategies include shorting on rallies, selling call options, or using bull spread options. The recommended trading ranges are WTI [55, 65] and SC [420, 500] [6][108]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Outlook**: In 2025, the crude oil market is mainly affected by OPEC+ production policies, US tariff policies, and global demand. OPEC+ is expanding production, and combined with the global energy transition, there is a supply surplus. Geopolitical factors increase price volatility but do not change the supply - surplus trend. In June - July, oil prices may be supported by peak - season consumption and are expected to trade in a range with a declining center [6][108]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: On May 7, the People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion in long - term liquidity. As of May, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.2%. By July, the probability of unchanged rates is 76.6%, with a 22.9% chance of a 25 - basis - point cut and a 0.5% chance of a 50 - basis - point cut. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the expected growth rate for 2026 is 3% [6][27]. - **Supply and Demand, and Inventory**: - **Supply**: OPEC+ did not adjust production policies at the Wednesday meeting but proposed a mechanism for setting 2027 production benchmarks. There is a possibility of accelerated production increases in July. In April 2025, OPEC's production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 26.71 million barrels per day. The US crude oil production remained stable at 13.4 million barrels per day as of the week ending May 23 [7][43][47]. - **Demand**: The IEA's May report maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 740,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day. In May 2025, EIA, OPEC, and IEA predicted global crude oil demand at 10.371 million, 10.5 million, and 10.39 million barrels per day respectively, with year - on - year increases of 970,000, 130,000, and 740,000 barrels per day [7][52]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending May 23, US commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels to 440.36 million barrels, strategic reserves increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.31 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.44 million barrels to 223.08 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories decreased by 720,000 barrels to 103.41 million barrels. Chinese port inventories increased by 319,000 tons to 28.216 million tons, and Shandong refinery inventories increased by 23,000 tons to 2.499 million tons [7][71][75]. 2. Core Drivers - **OPEC+ Production Policies since 2017**: In 2017, OPEC+ implemented production cuts. Since October 2022, there have been multiple rounds of production cuts and extensions, with actual production decreasing by about 3 million barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait. The overall production cut implementation rate is 51.02% [10][12][14]. - **2025 OPEC+ Production Increase Path**: In 2025, OPEC+ has a production increase plan through quota increases and compensatory production cuts. It is expected that by the end of the year, the net increase in OPEC+ production will be about 1 million barrels per day [15][16][21]. 3. Price Spreads and Positions - **Cross - market Spreads**: The WTI monthly spread increased slightly. As of May 29, the M1 - M2 spread was $0.74 per barrel, and the M1 - M6 spread was $2.21 per barrel. The US refined product crack spreads declined, while the domestic refined product crack spreads rebounded [90][94][95]. - **Fund Positions**: No specific information on changes in WTI and Brent fund positions was provided. The SC warehouse receipt volume is low, and the total SC positions increased [102][104].