Group 1: Oil Price Surge - The article discusses the surge in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical passage for global oil and gas supply [5][6]. - As of March 25, the average gasoline price in the U.S. reached $3.98 per gallon, a $1 increase (34%) from the previous month [4]. Group 2: Helium Shortage Crisis - The article highlights a looming helium shortage as a consequence of the geopolitical situation, with Qatar, which supplies about 30% of the world's helium, facing production disruptions [6][7]. - Helium prices have reportedly doubled, and there are concerns that the current helium supply could be depleted within weeks due to storage limitations [6][7]. Group 3: China's Helium Dependency - China's helium dependency is alarmingly high, with an external reliance rate of 83.51% projected for 2024, consuming approximately 25.7 million cubic meters while only producing 448,500 cubic meters domestically [7]. - Qatar is the dominant supplier, accounting for 61.80% of China's helium imports, indicating a fragile supply chain [7]. Group 4: Helium's Unique Properties and Applications - Helium is essential in various high-tech applications, such as MRI machines, which require it for cooling superconductors [16]. - The article emphasizes that helium's unique properties make it irreplaceable in many critical fields, leading to increased demand and highlighting the urgency of the supply issue [15][16]. Group 5: Global Helium Reserves and Future Outlook - The total global helium reserves are estimated at 7.3 billion cubic meters, with current consumption rates suggesting that these reserves could be exhausted within 20 years [18]. - The article warns that the depletion of helium resources could have severe implications for industries reliant on this gas, prompting a search for alternative solutions [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For both PG (liquefied gas) and SC (crude oil) options, it's recommended to construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options for directional gains, and due to large geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on sellers (such as single - selling and double - selling) are not recommended [7][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PG (Liquefied Gas) Options - **标的期货市场数据** - The closing price of the pg2605 contract yesterday was 6,759 yuan, up 181 yuan or 2.75% from the previous day. The trading volume was 183,925 lots, a decrease of 35,413 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 58,866 lots, a decrease of 2,617 lots from the previous day [6] - For the PG (liquefied gas option) in the table, the price was 6,606, down 0.16%, the trading volume was 166,709, and the open interest was 23,836, a decrease of 5,030 [3] - **期权因子 - 量仓PCR** - The trading volume of PG (liquefied gas call options) was 34,993, an increase of 6,746; the open interest was 18,713, a decrease of 13; the trading volume PCR was 0.43, a decrease of 0.04; the open interest PCR was 1.07, an increase of 0.02. The trading volume of PG (liquefied gas put options) was 14,928, an increase of 1,626; the open interest was 20,039, an increase of 291 [4] - The PG option open interest PCR was reported at 1.0546, at the 92.24% level in the past year [6] - **期权因子 - 压力支撑** - The at - the - money strike price of PG (liquefied gas options) was 6,600, the resistance level was 7,500, the support level was 3,400, the weighted implied volatility was 83.35%, a decrease of 3.15%, the annual average implied volatility was 29.18%, and HISV20 was 70.36% [5] - From the perspective of options, the resistance level of the PG option underlying was 7,500, and the support level was 3,400 [6] - **行情解读与策略建议** - The implied volatility of PG (liquefied gas options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.2891 [6] - Directional strategy: Construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options to obtain directional gains. Volatility strategy: Due to large geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on sellers (such as single - selling and double - selling) are not recommended [7] 3.2 SC (Crude Oil) Options - **标的期货市场数据** - The closing price of the sc2605 contract yesterday was 740.8 yuan, up 12.4 yuan or 1.70% from the previous day. The trading volume was 95,496 lots, a decrease of 1,150 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 52,438 lots, a decrease of 600 lots from the previous day [19] - For the SC (crude oil option) in the table, there are some unclear data, but it shows a 10% change [16] - **期权因子 - 量仓PCR** - The trading volume of SC (crude oil call options) was 133,810, an increase of 23,806; the open interest was 68,336, a decrease of 496; the trading volume PCR was 0.61, a decrease of 0.02; the open interest PCR was 1.38, an increase of 0.1. The trading volume of SC (crude oil put options) was 81,770, an increase of 12,102; the open interest was 94,366, an increase of 5,932 [17] - The SC option open interest PCR was reported at 1.2848, at the 89.80% level in the past year [19] - **期权因子 - 压力支撑** - The at - the - money strike price of SC (crude oil options) was 760, the resistance level was 940, the support level was 500, the weighted implied volatility was 113.69%, an increase of 1.25%, the annual average implied volatility was 45.22%, and HISV20 was 66.47% [18] - From the perspective of options, the resistance level of the SC option underlying was 940, and the support level was 500 [19] - **行情解读与策略建议** - The implied volatility of SC (crude oil options) fluctuated above the mean of 0.4486 [19] - Directional strategy: Construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options to obtain directional gains. Volatility strategy: Due to large geopolitical risks, strategies mainly based on sellers (such as single - selling and double - selling) are not recommended [20]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而産生或因倚賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司 PETROCHINA COMPANY LIMITED （於中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） (股份代號：857) 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第 13.10B 條作出。 茲載列中國石油天然氣股份有限公司在上海證券交易所網站刊登的《中國石油天然氣股份有限 公司 2025 年度報告》，僅供參閱。 特此公告 中國石油天然氣股份有限公司董事會 中國北京 2026 年 3 月 27 日 於本公告日，本公司董事會由戴厚良先生擔任董事長，由周心懷先生擔任副董事長及非執行董事， 由段良偉先生、周松先生及謝軍先生擔任非執行董事，由任立新先生、張道偉先生及宋大勇先生擔 任執行董事，由蔣小明先生、何敬麟先生、閻焱先生、劉曉蕾女士及張玉新先生擔任獨立非執行董 事。 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 2025 年度报告 （A 股股票代码：601857） 2026 年 3 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: March 27, 2026 [1][3] - Authors: Li Liqin (Senior Manager of Investment Research), Huang Kehan (Options Researcher) [2] - Contact information: Email: lilq@wkqh.cn, huangkh@wkqh.cn; Phone: 0755 - 23375252 [2] Group 2: Liquefied Petroleum Gas (PG) Options 2.1. Futures Market Data - PG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) options, underlying contract pg2605, closing price 6541, change 0.80%, trading volume 219,338, open interest 144,943, change -4,880 [4] 2.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) call options: trading volume 34,623, change -7,478; open interest 18,256, change 1,722; volume PCR 0.4, change -0.43; open interest PCR 1.07, change -0.09 [5] - PG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) put options: trading volume 13,962, change -21,236; open interest 19,536, change 340 [5] 2.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support - PG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) options, underlying contract pg2605, at - the - money strike price 6500, resistance level 7500, support level 3400, weighted implied volatility 84.83%, change -5.15%, annual average implied volatility 28.63%, HISV20 70.64% [6] 2.4. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - Market analysis: pg2605 contract closed at 6550 yuan yesterday, down 571 yuan or 8.01% from the previous day; trading volume 364,281 lots, down 184,489 lots; open interest 66,363 lots, up 1018 lots; implied volatility of PG options fluctuates above the mean of 0.0000; open interest PCR of PG options is 1.161, at the 97.14% level in the past year; resistance level is 7500, support level is 3400 [7] - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy - Construct a bull spread strategy of call options to obtain directional returns; Volatility strategy - Due to high geopolitical risks, strategies based on selling (such as single - selling and double - selling) are not recommended [8] Group 3: Crude Oil (SC) Options 3.1. Futures Market Data - SC (Crude Oil) options, underlying contract sc2605, closing price 733.1, change 0.81%, trading volume 96,646, open interest 53,038, change -1,367 [16] 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - SC (Crude Oil) call options: trading volume 112,492, change -17,668; open interest 85,358, change 3,094; volume PCR 0.67, change -0.16; open interest PCR 1.27, change -0.02 [17] - SC (Crude Oil) put options: trading volume 75,044, change -32,904; open interest 86,858, change 2,672 [17] 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support - SC (Crude Oil) options, underlying contract sc2605, at - the - money strike price 730, resistance level 940, support level 500, weighted implied volatility 109.01%, change 1.13%, annual average implied volatility 44.51%, HISV20 73.83% [18] 3.4. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - Market analysis: sc2605 contract closed at 723.9 yuan yesterday, down 28 yuan or 3.72% from the previous day; trading volume 143,986 lots, down 64,085 lots; transfer volume 54,405 lots, down 1,289 lots; implied volatility of SC options fluctuates above the mean of 0.0000; open interest PCR of SC options is 1.29, at the 90.20% level in the past year; resistance level is 940, support level is 500 [19] - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy - Construct a bull spread strategy of call options to obtain directional returns; Volatility strategy - Due to high geopolitical risks, strategies based on selling (such as single - selling and double - selling) are not recommended [20]

Group 1: Middle East Conflict and Energy Supply - The Middle East conflict has transitioned from merely increasing risk premiums to creating real supply gaps in global energy, affecting not just crude oil but also natural gas, jet fuel, diesel, methanol, and acetic acid [5][6] - The most concerning aspect is not the temporary spike in oil prices, but the slow recovery of supply from damaged refineries, gas fields, ports, and logistics, leading to prolonged high prices [5][6] - The current situation indicates a systemic contraction in the core oil export routes, with the flow through the Strait of Hormuz dropping to about 24% of normal levels, representing a significant supply disruption [10][11] Group 2: Supply Chain and Refining System Impact - The impact of the conflict has extended beyond crude oil to the refining system, with significant disruptions in processing capabilities, leading to a tighter supply of refined products [20][21] - The refining capacity in the Middle East has been severely affected, with estimates showing a shutdown of approximately 9.2 million barrels per day, which could take years to fully restore [20][21] - The real bottleneck is shifting from crude oil availability to the ability to refine oil into necessary products, indicating that the next tightness will be in refined fuels like jet fuel and diesel [20][21] Group 3: Demand Destruction and Economic Implications - Demand destruction is already occurring, particularly in Asia, where many countries rely heavily on Middle Eastern raw materials and refined products, with projected demand destruction reaching approximately 650,000 barrels per day by May [22][24] - The current phase is characterized by passive demand contraction driven by high prices and physical shortages, rather than a spontaneous collapse of demand [24] - Administrative measures are being implemented in several Asian countries to reduce demand, indicating that the economic impact of the conflict is penetrating deeper into real economic activities [24] Group 4: Chemical Industry and Methanol Supply Chain - The conflict has directly impacted around 16% of global methanol production capacity, with significant reliance on Middle Eastern exports, particularly affecting China [25][27] - The mismatch between production in the Middle East and consumption in East Asia creates a vulnerability in the supply chain, where disruptions can lead to rapid price increases [27][28] - The rising costs of methanol will not uniformly benefit the entire supply chain, as different downstream products have varying abilities to absorb cost increases, with acetic acid being particularly vulnerable [28][29] Group 5: Macro Economic Environment in China - China's macroeconomic situation is not heading towards full deflation but is entering a phase of weak recovery characterized by fiscal preemptive measures and investment restoration [33][34] - The recovery is uneven, with infrastructure and manufacturing performing better than real estate, indicating a reliance on policy-driven investment rather than organic demand growth [36][39] - The fiscal approach emphasizes spending and project initiation, with a focus on maintaining growth without relying solely on real estate recovery [37][39]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that the Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 Index both fell over 3% on March 23, indicating a state of indiscriminate selling in the market. This period is noted as one of the worst 30 days in the past decade for sell-offs. The key question for investors is whether it is the right time to buy the dip. The report concludes that while there are signs of disorderly selling, the market is not yet at an extreme pessimistic level. Given the geopolitical uncertainties, UBS continues to prefer A-shares and believes a balanced investment portfolio remains the most viable strategy [1]. Group 1 - The current market situation is compared to historical extreme sell-off events, indicating that while there are signs of disorderly selling, the market is not at an extreme pessimistic level [1]. - UBS prefers A-shares due to potential government fund support, low correlation with global indices, ample liquidity, and policy support [1]. - Certain sectors are identified as defensive against potential oil price increases due to Middle East tensions, including new energy (electric vehicles and batteries), shipbuilding, oil and gas, certain chemical companies, pig farming, and aluminum mining [1]. Group 2 - Stocks related to artificial intelligence, such as semiconductor equipment and leading internet companies, have long-term fundamental advantages but may face selling pressure if market risk aversion increases due to crowded positions [1]. - A list of Chinese stocks predicted to outperform during rising oil prices includes PetroChina, CNOOC, Dongfang Electric, BYD, Li Auto, China Mobile, CITIC Bank, Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is in an upward - fluctuating stage, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. The logic is that with the intensification of the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the shipments from the Middle East have almost stopped. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the supply of imports from the Middle East will face significant challenges, leading to an increase in the global spot price. Additionally, with the attacks on relevant oil and gas production facilities such as the new oil fields in South Vietnam and Ras Tanura, the long - term reduction in Middle East supply will keep the propane supply - demand in North Asia in a tight pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Core Views and Strategies - **Contract and View**: The contract is pg2605. The view is that LPG is in an upward - fluctuating stage, and the price center is expected to rise later [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Upstream Refineries**: With relatively high inventory and concerns about LPG price drops, refineries are advised to buy put options on PG2605 with an exercise price of 6000 [5]. - **Import Traders**: With relatively high inventory and concerns about LPG price drops, they are advised to buy put options on PG2605 with an exercise price of 6000 [5]. - **Downstream Third - level Stations**: To prevent a significant price increase and rising procurement costs, they are advised to buy the PG2605 contract at the market price for hedging [5]. 3.2 Weekly Important Price Changes and News - **Price Changes**: - **Futures Prices**: The prices of futures contracts such as PG2605, PG2606, etc. showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous period. For example, the price of PG2605 on March 19, 2026, was 6283.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 613 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 681 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [10]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various spot products also changed. For example, the price of imported gas in Guangzhou increased by 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and the previous week [10]. - **News**: - Iran's South Pars energy facilities were attacked by Israel, and Iran counter - attacked the oil and natural gas facilities of neighboring countries. - Saudi Aramco has cancelled the LR6 supply for April. The production at Juaymah is not expected to resume before mid - April. - Aramco is expected to announce the April CP at the end of March, and the first - round recommendation is expected on March 25. - The loading terminal in Qatar was attacked, and the supply of shipped goods in the Middle East is expected to be interrupted for a long time. A US supplier declared force majeure, increasing concerns about the supply in the Far East [12]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Domestic Device Maintenance Plan**: Multiple refineries and chemical plants in China are in the process of maintenance, including catalytic units, whole - plant maintenance, etc. For example, Dalian Petrochemical is in the process of whole - plant maintenance, with an expected loss of 1800 tons per day [21]. - **Weekly Marginal Supply - Demand Balance**: - **Supply**: From March 6 - 12 to March 13 - 19, the domestic supply decreased slightly from 55.15 tons to 53.67 tons, and the import volume increased from 60.9 tons to 64.6 tons. The total supply increased from 116.1 tons to 118.3 tons [24]. - **Demand**: The demand from MTBE, alkylation, and PDH also changed slightly. For example, the demand from MTBE increased from 21.8 tons to 22.0 tons [24]. - **Downstream Chemical Profit and Device Operation**: - **Device Operation Rate**: The operating rate of PDH decreased, while the operating rates of alkylation and MTBE in some regions increased. For example, the national average operating rate of MTBE external - sales manufacturers increased by 0.57 percentage points to 69.51% [41]. - **Profit**: The profits of different downstream industries also showed different trends. For example, the profit of traditional MTBE devices and alkylation oil changed compared to the previous period [35][39]. 3.4 US Market - **North American Propane and Propylene Supply**: In the week of March 13, 2026, the production of propane/propylene was 2924 thousand barrels per day, the import was 119 thousand barrels per day, and the export was 1879 thousand barrels per day. Compared with the previous week, the production increased by 62 thousand barrels per day, the import decreased by 17 thousand barrels per day, and the export decreased by 156 thousand barrels per day [101]. - **North American Chemical and Combustion Demand**: The demand in different sectors such as the industrial sector and the residential and commercial sectors also changed. For example, the consumption of propane and propylene in the industrial sector was 473 thousand barrels per day in the week of March 13, 2026 [101]. 3.5 Arbitrage Spreads and Weekly Import - Export Data Statistics - **Arbitrage Spreads**: - The propane arbitrage spreads from the US to the Far East and Northwest Europe showed different trends. For example, the propane arbitrage spread from the US to the Far East on March 20, 2026, was at a certain level [125]. - The propane spreads between Europe and the US, and between the Far East and the US also changed [126]. - **Import - Export Data**: - The imports and exports of propane/propylene in the US also changed. For example, the import and export volumes of propane/propylene in the week of March 13, 2026, were at certain levels [128]. 3.6 North American Region Inventory - **Propane/Propylene Inventory**: The propane/propylene inventory in North America was 72485 thousand barrels in the week of March 13, 2026, an increase of 810 thousand barrels compared to the previous week [101]. - **NGPLs/LRGs Inventory**: The inventory of NGPLs/LRGs also showed a certain trend [154]. 3.7 Asian Market - **Swap Prices and Inter - variety Spreads**: - The prices of various swaps such as Saudi CP propane swap, FEI swap, etc. changed. For example, the price of Saudi CP propane swap on March 20, 2026, was at a certain level [195]. - The spreads between different varieties such as FEI - CP, FEI04 - FEI05, etc. also changed [196][198]. - **Middle East Weekly Shipment Tracking**: - The shipments from the Middle East to different regions such as China, India, and Indonesia showed different trends. For example, the shipments from the Middle East to China in the week of April 20, 2026, were at a certain level [223]. 3.8 European Market - **Swap and Inter - variety Spreads**: - The price of European propane CIF swap and the propane inter - month spread showed different trends. For example, the price of European propane CIF swap on March 20, 2026, was at a certain level [256]. - **LPG Inventory in Europe**: - The LPG inventories in different regions of Europe such as Northwest Europe, Sweden, and Finland were at certain levels. For example, the LPG inventory in Northwest Europe in November 30, 2025, was 168 thousand tons [259].

Summary of Conference Call on Oil Shipping and Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the oil shipping industry, focusing on the impact of the current geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the collaboration between MSC and Scorpio Tankers [1][17]. Key Points and Arguments Oil Supply and Export Dynamics - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in a significant oil export shortfall of 8-11 million barrels per day, with current exports maintained at approximately 7 million barrels per day, primarily through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port and Oman [1][4]. - The global oil supply focus has shifted to the Atlantic basin, with the U.S. Gulf Coast seeing a 50% increase in export plans to the Far East due to significant price advantages [1][5]. - The daily oil export capacity from Yanbu is around 500-600 thousand barrels, significantly lower than the normal capacity of 1.1 million barrels per day [7][20]. Freight Rate Surge - Freight rates have surged dramatically, with the TCE for Aframax from the Gulf Coast to Europe nearing $300,000 per day, and VLCC rates from the Gulf Coast to China reaching $24 million, translating to approximately $220,000 per day [1][6]. - The market has seen a rebound in freight rates across all Atlantic routes, with VLCC rates recovering from historical lows [6][11]. Saudi Arabia's Export Strategy - Saudi Aramco is prioritizing its own needs and those of major clients, particularly Chinese oil companies, leading to difficulties for other buyers such as South Korea and Thailand in securing cargo [7][8]. - The company has not released its monthly shipping plan, indicating limited availability for other buyers [8]. Product Oil Market Conditions - The product oil market is facing severe challenges, with China halting exports and low refinery utilization rates in Singapore leading to fuel shortages in Australia and Southeast Asia [2][9]. - The need for cross-regional transportation has surged, with the U.S. Gulf Coast being the only capable supplier, despite long shipping times [9][10]. Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The oil shipping market is experiencing a "hard gap" in capacity, with VLCC availability booked until 2029 and low delivery volumes expected in 2024-2025 [1][17][22]. - MSC's acquisition of a 50% stake in Scorpio Tankers is seen as a strategic move to control capacity and drive up freight rates, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [17][18]. Geopolitical Considerations - The ongoing conflict and potential selective passage strategies by Iran could impact shipping routes and volumes, with implications for pricing and operational strategies [15][16]. - The market is expected to stabilize, but the potential for high freight rates remains due to limited new ship deliveries and ongoing geopolitical tensions [16][24]. Investment Considerations - The oil shipping sector is viewed as having a stronger fundamental outlook compared to oil prices, which are heavily influenced by geopolitical factors and may not sustain high levels post-conflict [24][25]. Additional Important Insights - The potential for increased oil production from non-Middle Eastern regions is limited, with estimates suggesting a maximum increase of 200-300 thousand barrels per day, insufficient to cover the current shortfall [20][21]. - The operational dynamics of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may change significantly if Iran implements a toll system, potentially reducing passage efficiency [12][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the oil shipping industry amidst geopolitical challenges.

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On March 20, 2026, the price of the SC main contract dropped significantly from 814.9 yuan/barrel to 773.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 5.07%, showing high volatility. The price of the WTI main contract remained stable at 94.59 US dollars/barrel, and the price of the Brent main contract remained stable at 103.07 US dollars/barrel. The SC-Brent spread weakened from 15.01 US dollars/barrel to 9.34 US dollars/barrel, a decline of 37.77%; the SC-WTI spread weakened from 23.49 US dollars/barrel to 17.82 US dollars/barrel, a decline of 24.14%; the Brent-WTI spread remained stable at 8.48 US dollars/barrel; the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread slightly dropped from 28.8 yuan/barrel to 26.2 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9.03%, and the overall spread trend weakened [1]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: As of March 17, ICE data showed that the net long positions of Brent crude oil speculators increased by 77,672 lots to 428,704 lots, indicating an increase in market bullish sentiment. Diesel speculators reduced their net long positions by 4,714 lots to 72,341 lots, possibly reflecting concerns about demand [1][11]. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 19, Iranian missiles attacked Israeli refineries in Haifa and Ashdod, damaging key infrastructure. However, most facilities of Israeli refineries have returned to normal operation, and the remaining parts are expected to resume within a few days, with limited short - term supply interruption risks. Australian fuel transport ships have been cancelled or postponed due to the Middle East conflict, which may affect regional supply stability. The OPEC+ production policy has not mentioned any changes, but geopolitical events (such as the Iran - Israel conflict) increase supply uncertainty. Intercontinental Oil and Gas announced that its subsidiary signed a contract for the Naft Khana oilfield复产 project in Iraq, which may increase future supply [2][7][8]. - **Demand Side**: As of March 19, the domestic refined oil retail price is expected to increase by 2,000 yuan/ton (based on a crude oil change rate of 45.21%), reflecting strong refinery demand or cost - push. ICE diesel speculative net long positions decreased, possibly indicating concerns about refined oil demand. In February, India's oil refining product output decreased by 1.0% year - on - year, but the output of major industries increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and only the price of premium gasoline will increase [2][9]. - **Inventory Side**: EIA data showed that as of the week of March 13, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels to 449.3 million barrels, while analysts previously expected an increase of only 383,000 barrels. Crude oil inventories at the Cushing delivery center in Oklahoma increased by 944,000 barrels that week, reaching the highest level since August 2024. US gasoline inventories decreased by 5.4 million barrels to 244 million barrels that week; distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, decreased by 2.5 million barrels to 116.9 million barrels [2]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. On the supply side, geopolitical risks have led to refinery interruptions but quick recovery, and the Iraq oilfield复产 project increases supply potential, alleviating long - term shortage concerns. On the demand side, India's output has declined, but economic expansion provides support. The increase in refined oil prices boosts refinery profits, but the decrease in diesel speculative positions implies demand differentiation. The overall industrial chain supply - demand balance is fragile, and the continuation of the Middle East conflict may increase volatility. Future price trends depend on the stability of the geopolitical situation and the progress of supply recovery [3].

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On March 18, 2026, the price of the SC main contract was reported at 735.4 yuan per barrel, a significant drop of 25.8 yuan or 3.39% from the previous day's 761.2 yuan. The WTI main contract price remained stable at 95.3 US dollars per barrel, and the Brent main contract price also stayed at 103.5 US dollars per barrel. The SC-Brent spread weakened from 7.02 US dollars per barrel to 3.45 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 50.85%. The SC-WTI spread decreased from 15.22 US dollars per barrel to 11.65 US dollars per barrel, a drop of 23.46%. The Brent-WTI spread remained stable at 8.2 US dollars per barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread fell from 32.2 yuan per barrel to 28.3 yuan per barrel, a decline of 12.11%. Overall, the spreads generally weakened, indicating the relative weakness of SC [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: No relevant data provided [75] Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side faces multiple disturbances. An Indian government official reported that 1.6 million tons of oil tankers were stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, which may limit exports in the short term. Iran attacked a Saudi oil - gas refinery in Riyadh, destroying fuel reserves and causing a fire, affecting the stability of Middle - East supply. Overall, the supply side is affected by geopolitics (such as the Iranian attack) and capacity changes. Additionally, Vietnam's domestic crude oil production is expected to decline in the future, while Italy's Eni Group expects to increase natural gas and condensate production [2][8]. - **Demand Side**: There is uncertainty on the demand side. Several Japanese petrochemical companies announced production cuts on March 18, worried that the Middle - East conflict would lead to a tight supply of naphtha, which may drag down the demand for plastic raw materials. The Trump administration may cancel the summer gasoline regulations to suppress energy prices, potentially increasing gasoline demand. Overall, the demand side is affected by refinery device adjustments and refined - oil policies, with weak Asian demand and fluctuations caused by policy changes in Europe and the United States [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Inventory signals are divided. The Iranian attack on the Saudi refinery may damage oil and gas facility inventories, affecting short - term reserves. As of the week ending March 13, EIA reported that crude oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels to 449.3 million barrels, while analysts had previously expected an increase of only 383,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory at the Cushing delivery center in Oklahoma increased by 944,000 barrels that week, reaching the highest level since August 2024. US gasoline inventories decreased by 5.4 million barrels to 244 million barrels that week, and distillate inventories (including diesel and heating oil) decreased by 2.5 million barrels to 116.9 million barrels. Indian government officials stated that the gasoline and diesel inventories at gas stations are sufficient [2][10]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices may continue to strengthen in the short term. The reason is that supply - side disturbances have intensified. Middle - East geopolitical conflicts (such as the Iranian attack on the Saudi refinery and the stranding of Indian oil tankers) may tighten supply in the short term. Overall, supply elasticity and geopolitical risks dominate the market. If geopolitical tensions escalate, it may continue to drive prices up in the short term [3]