Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the international crude oil market showed significant seasonal fluctuations. In the first quarter, oil prices first rose and then fell, with the price center shifting significantly lower year-on-year. In the second quarter, the market hit a deep bottom under multiple pressures and then rebounded at the end of the month [6]. - In the first half of the year, the relationship between oil prices and the US dollar has changed, and the commodity attribute of oil price trends has become more prominent. In the second half of 2025, the core logic of oil prices will be anchored at the micro - level, and the marginal impact of macro - monetary factors on oil prices may be continuously weakened [8][9]. - Geopolitical events such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the Palestine - Israel conflict, and the Iran nuclear issue have a significant impact on the crude oil market. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has changed the global crude oil trade pattern, and the Iran nuclear issue has high uncertainty, which may affect Iran's crude oil exports [16][28]. - Trump's new policies, including tariffs on Canada and sanctions on Russia and Venezuela, have had certain impacts on the crude oil market. The tariff on Canada has affected Canada's crude oil export pattern, while the sanctions on Russia and Venezuela have had limited substantial impacts on their export volumes and directions [33][44]. - In the first half of 2025, the international crude oil market showed significant seasonal fluctuations. In the first quarter, oil prices first rose and then fell, with the price center shifting significantly lower year-on-year. In the second quarter, the market hit a deep bottom under multiple pressures and then rebounded at the end of the month [6]. - In the first half of the year, the relationship between oil prices and the US dollar has changed, and the commodity attribute of oil price trends has become more prominent. In the second half of 2025, the core logic of oil prices will be anchored at the micro - level, and the marginal impact of macro - monetary factors on oil prices may be continuously weakened [8][9]. - Geopolitical events such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the Palestine - Israel conflict, and the Iran nuclear issue have a significant impact on the crude oil market. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has changed the global crude oil trade pattern, and the Iran nuclear issue has high uncertainty, which may affect Iran's crude oil exports [16][28]. - Trump's new policies, including tariffs on Canada and sanctions on Russia and Venezuela, have had certain impacts on the crude oil market. The tariff on Canada has affected Canada's crude oil export pattern, while the sanctions on Russia and Venezuela have had limited substantial impacts on their export volumes and directions [33][44]. - In the first half of 2025, the international crude oil market showed significant seasonal fluctuations. In the first quarter, oil prices first rose and then fell, with the price center shifting significantly lower year-on-year. In the second quarter, the market hit a deep bottom under multiple pressures and then rebounded at the end of the month [6]. - In the first half of the year, the relationship between oil prices and the US dollar has changed, and the commodity attribute of oil price trends has become more prominent. In the second half of 2025, the core logic of oil prices will be anchored at the micro - level, and the marginal impact of macro - monetary factors on oil prices may be continuously weakened [8][9]. - Geopolitical events such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the Palestine - Israel conflict, and the Iran nuclear issue have a significant impact on the crude oil market. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has changed the global crude oil trade pattern, and the Iran nuclear issue has high uncertainty, which may affect Iran's crude oil exports [16][28]. - Trump's new policies, including tariffs on Canada and sanctions on Russia and Venezuela, have had certain impacts on the crude oil market. The tariff on Canada has affected Canada's crude oil export pattern, while the sanctions on Russia and Venezuela have had limited substantial impacts on their export volumes and directions [33][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 H1 Crude Oil Price Trend Review - In Q1 2025, at the beginning of the year, due to geopolitical risks, Brent crude oil once approached the annual high of $83/barrel, and the domestic SC also rose sharply. However, from February to March, with the cease - fire in Gaza, the mitigation of Red Sea shipping risks, and Trump's statement promoting the increase of US shale oil production, the market tension subsided. OPEC+'s unexpected announcement of an over - expected production increase in May led Brent to fall below the key support level of $70/barrel, and SC approached the low of 500 yuan/barrel [6]. - In Q2 2025, from April to May, Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy impacted the global trade outlook, and OPEC+'s planned production increase from May to July exacerbated the concern of supply surplus. Brent once fell below $60/barrel. Until June, the market found that OPEC+'s production increase was less than expected, and combined with the renewed tension in the Middle East situation, Brent, WTI, and SC rebounded by about 25% from the low in early May [6]. 2. Re - sorting of Crude Oil Analysis Perspectives - The change of the petrodollar agreement is reshaping the global energy trade pattern. If Saudi Arabia no longer renews the petrodollar agreement, it will weaken the US dollar's monopoly position in the energy field. Since 2022, the relationship between oil prices and the US dollar has changed, and the traditional negative correlation has been weakened and even turned into a positive correlation [8]. - The driving attribute of oil prices has switched between financial and commodity attributes. In 2024, the commodity attribute of oil prices became dominant again. In 2025, US shale oil production and supply - demand structure will be the core variables. If US shale oil production declines more than expected, the financial attribute of oil prices may be amplified, but based on the current supply - demand trend, the commodity attribute will be further strengthened [9]. 3. External Policy Environment Risks: Geopolitical Events and "Trump Shock" 3.1 Geopolitical Events: Russia - Ukraine, Palestine - Israel, and Iran Nuclear - **Russia - Ukraine and Palestine - Israel**: As of the time of publication, there is no sign of a permanent or temporary cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine and Palestine - Israel battlefields. The long - term war has forced the surrounding trade to form a new stable pattern. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has changed the global crude oil trade pattern, with China and India becoming the main buyers of Russian crude oil. Recently, the intensity of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, and the peace negotiation has reached a dead - end. The weakening of the US mediation role and the risk of the upgrade of European military aid to Ukraine have added uncertainties to the negotiation prospects [16][21]. - **Iran Nuclear Negotiations**: The Iran - Israel conflict interrupted the Iran nuclear negotiations. As of June 24, 2025, the two sides seemed to be about to reach a cease - fire agreement. There are still great uncertainties in the progress of the US - Iran negotiations. The core differences between Iran and the West in the negotiations include uranium enrichment rights, the timing of sanctions relief, and regional security issues. If Iran fails to meet the US expectations in the negotiations, the US and European countries may increase pressure on Iran and affect its crude oil exports [25][31]. 3.2 Trump's New Policies: Tariffs and Sanctions - **Tariff Impact**: In early 2025, Trump's administration imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, which promoted Canada to explore diversified export solutions. The tariff has led to an increase in Canada's seaborne export volume, a corresponding adjustment of the pipeline transportation pattern, and made Canada re - examine its pipeline infrastructure construction. However, in the short term, the US market still dominates Canada's exports [33][38]. - **Sanction Adjustment**: Trump imposed a series of sanctions on the energy industries of Russia and Venezuela in early 2025. However, due to the adaptability of their industrial structures and the stable demand of core buyers, the substantial impact on their export volumes and directions is limited. They use flexible supply - chain management to hedge the impact of sanctions [44][45].