Group 1 - International precious metal prices rebounded, with gold futures and spot prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce [1] - Silver prices also returned to $80 per ounce, with significant daily increases in both gold and silver futures [1] - Factors supporting the rebound include a weaker dollar and investors buying on dips [1] Group 2 - Gold prices increased nearly 5% over the past week, influenced by signs of a slowing U.S. labor market and rising market risk aversion [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,000 points for the first time, driven by a rebound in some tech stocks [2] - Oil prices declined due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential disruptions to oil supply [2] Group 3 - The upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks continues, with a focus on software and data analysis companies amid concerns over AI technology replacing traditional services [2] - Major companies like Coca-Cola and McDonald's are set to release their latest earnings as the earnings season approaches its conclusion [2]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油：地缘因素反复计价 关注假期风险 （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 1、周度油价围绕着美伊地缘事件的反复而不断震荡，周度整体价格重心下移，其中WTI 3月合约收盘 至63.55美元/桶，周度下跌3.41%。布伦特4月原油即期合约收盘至68.05美元/桶，周度下跌2.48%。 SC2603以468.8元/桶收盘。从价格来看，布油在70美元整数关口附近承压。 2、2月6日晚，在当天举行的美伊核谈判结束后，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐离开阿曼首都马斯喀特。据 悉，阿拉格齐在当天谈判结束后接受采访时表示，伊朗代表团必须返回德黑兰就"关键问题"进行磋商， 并为未来的谈判做好准备。同时美伊已同意择日继续进行会谈。就在会谈后不久，美国国务院发表声明 说，美国对多个与伊朗石油贸易有关的实体、个人和油轮实施制裁，以打击伊朗"石油非法贸易 商"和"影子船队"。声明说，遭到制裁的包括15个实体、两名个人以及14艘油轮。声明还称，美政府正 在对伊朗实施"极限施压"，以大幅减少伊朗政府的"非法石油和石化产品出口"。因而当前来看，美伊 ...

连锁反应迅速蔓延至全球市场。 1月30日早盘，A股贵金属板块集体崩盘，中金黄金、湖南白银等个股跌 停；原油、铜价同步大跌，WTI原油日内跌幅达6%；甚至比特币也受牵连，单日暴跌超4%。 市场恐慌情 绪加剧，部分投资者为弥补贵金属损失，被迫抛售其他资产，引发跨市场流动性危机。 2026年1月29日深夜，国际黄金市场突然上演"高空跳水"。 现货黄金价格在1小时内暴跌440美元，接连跌破 5400、5300、5200美元三道关口，最终单日跌幅超12%，创下40年来最大单日跌幅。 与此同时，白银更是 惨烈，盘中暴跌35.89%，一度跌破80美元关口。 这场暴跌并非孤立事件，此前一周，金银价格刚经历一轮 疯狂上涨，黄金突破5500美元，白银冲上120美元，市场还沉浸在"牛市狂欢"中。 然而，杠杆资金的踩踏、 美联储主席提名的突发消息，以及程序化交易的连锁反应，瞬间将市场推向深渊。 有投资者形容："屏幕上 的K线像断崖一样垂直下落，无数人一夜归零甚至穿仓"。 这场暴跌的导火索是特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席。 沃什历来以"通胀鹰派"著称，市场担心其上任 后可能推迟降息甚至推动缩表，美元指数应声走强，直接压制了以美元计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing extreme volatility, indicating a potential structural shift in its driving logic and volatility paradigm [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In January 2026, precious metals surged nearly 50%, with silver reaching historical highs, igniting market enthusiasm [1]. - However, a dramatic drop occurred at the end of January, with Comex silver prices plummeting over 30%, causing significant turmoil in domestic markets [1]. - Traditional price ratios like gold-silver, gold-copper, and gold-oil have shown erratic behavior, suggesting a breakdown in their historical signaling capabilities [1][3]. Group 2: Traditional Analysis Framework Failure - The gold-copper ratio, typically indicating economic health, has risen to historical highs without corresponding signs of economic recession, signaling potential underlying issues [3]. - The gold-silver ratio is converging to a near-decade low, which traditionally suggests increased risk appetite, but current conditions indicate a more complex narrative [3]. - The gold-oil ratio is at extreme levels, reflecting divergent supply-demand stories for these commodities, further complicating traditional analysis [4]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Market Drivers - The traditional pricing logic based on total demand and monetary cycles is being replaced by new structural forces [5]. - Gold is transitioning from a "rate indicator" to a "credit anchor," influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases and concerns over dollar credit [6][7]. - Silver's demand is bolstered by the global expansion of the photovoltaic industry, while copper is driven by new energy and technology sectors [8][9]. Group 4: Silver as a Market Indicator - Silver has emerged as a key player in the commodity market, reflecting both industrial demand and speculative trading [10]. - The "virtual-to-physical ratio" for silver has reached historical lows, indicating extreme speculation and potential "short squeeze" risks [10]. - Silver's dual nature makes it a sensitive barometer for market liquidity and risk sentiment, amplifying both bullish and bearish trends [11][12]. Group 5: Market Narratives and Trading Mechanisms - The market is increasingly driven by compelling narratives that spread rapidly through modern communication channels, influencing investor behavior [13][14]. - Programmatic trading and leverage have become significant amplifiers of market movements, leading to rapid price changes in response to emerging stories [15][16]. - New capital from other sectors, such as cryptocurrencies, is entering the commodity market, further intensifying volatility [17]. Group 6: Future Outlook - High volatility is expected to persist in the commodity market, necessitating a shift in observation frameworks and expectations [18]. - Monitoring silver's performance will be crucial for gauging overall market sentiment and risk appetite [18]. - A potential signal for a healthy market rally could be a simultaneous decline in the gold-silver and gold-oil ratios, indicating a return to economic growth narratives [19].

2026年2月6日，星期四的凌晨，对于全球的投资者来说，可能是个难眠之夜。 无论你打开哪个交易软件，无论是美股、黄金、原油还是加密货币的行情 图，几乎清一色都是刺眼的绿色——当然，在这里，绿色代表下跌。 这很不寻常。 通常，市场会有"跷跷板"效应：股票跌了，黄金可能因为避险情绪上涨；美元强了，以美元计价的大宗商品会承压。 但这一次，从被视为"数 字黄金"的比特币，到真正的硬通货黄金，再到代表未来科技的纳斯达克股票，全部同步下跌。 这感觉不像是一次普通的调整，更像是一场席卷所有资产类 别的"无差别打击"。 那么，到底发生了什么？ 为什么看似不相干的投资品，会在一夜之间集体"崩"了？ 线索，就藏在几个小时前接连出现的几条新闻里。 第一张倒下的多米诺骨牌，可能来自期货交易所的一纸通知。 就在暴跌发生前不久，上海期货交易所发布公告，宣布从2026年2月9日收盘结算时起，上调 多种期货合约的交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。 其中，黄金和白银的调整幅度尤为引人注目。 具体来说，黄金期货的涨跌停板幅度从原来的某个数值，直接调整为17%，一般持仓的交易保证金比例提高到19%。 白银期货更为夸张，涨跌停板幅度调到 20%，保证金 ...

Group 1 - The recent significant decline in precious metals prices is attributed to profit-taking by bullish investors after previous highs, with gold closing around $4803.10 and silver experiencing more volatility [1][3] - Silver prices dropped over $8 in a single day, closing at $76.25, with Bloomberg reporting a 17% overnight plunge, reducing its value by more than one-third from late January's historical highs [1][3] - The strong rebound of the US dollar index and the decline in oil prices have created an unfavorable macroeconomic backdrop for precious metals, leading to significant pressure on April gold and silver futures [1][3] Group 2 - Geopolitical risk easing has impacted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil falling to $68 and WTI crude oil dropping to around $64, which indirectly diminishes gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish reversal signal for gold futures, suggesting a potential establishment of a short-term top, with bulls needing to reclaim the $5250.00 resistance level [2][4] - For silver, a bearish flag pattern has emerged, and if prices fall below the $70.00 mark, the potential for further declines increases [2][4]

能源化工周报 日期 2026 年 2 月 6 日 行业 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 | 原油 - 3 - | | | --- | --- | | 聚酯 - - | 7 | | 纸浆 - 12 - | | 能化周报 原油 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | | 行情回 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the investment rating possibilities for various varieties, including "cautiously bearish" and "cautiously bullish" assessments [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple key financial and commodity markets, including precious metals, crude oil, and stock indices. It suggests that the long - term upward trend of gold remains intact despite recent volatility. The stock market is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need to be watched. For other markets, it provides detailed analyses of supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors [2][4][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Main News Focus - **International News**: The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, pausing rate cuts for the fifth consecutive time since June last year. It did not signal the next policy direction, strengthening the market's expectation of a stable monetary policy. Officials are monitoring the impact of the euro's appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [7]. - **Domestic News**: Eight departments jointly issued an implementation plan for the high - quality development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to achieve certain goals by 2030, such as cultivating high - standard raw material bases and new large - scale Chinese patent medicines [8]. - **Industry News**: In January, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, indicating an expansion of logistics business, with key sub - indices in the expansion range [9]. 3.2 Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report presents the daily earnings of various overseas market indices and commodities on February 4th and 5th, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, and others. Most showed declines, except for the US dollar index and some commodities like CBOT soybeans [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices declined. The A - share market also fell, with the beauty and care sector leading the gain and the non - ferrous metal sector leading the loss. The stock market's positive trend since 2026 is due to multiple factors. It is expected to continue its short - term positive trend in February, but potential risks from overseas markets during the Spring Festival need attention [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling. The central bank's open - market operations and the expected "rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction" policy in the US, along with domestic economic data, have influenced the Treasury bond market [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.73% at night. The US and Iran plan to hold nuclear - issue talks, but reaching an agreement is considered difficult. The strengthening US dollar and volatile precious metal prices have negatively affected the commodity market [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.46%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, as did the overall methanol plant operating rate. Coastal methanol inventories decreased slightly but were still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber futures declined. With domestic and some overseas production areas in different production states, and the inventory in Qingdao increasing, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined, with the market focusing on supply improvement expectations and macro - factors. The falling oil price also contributed to the cooling of the polyolefin market [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Glass production enterprise inventories increased slightly, and soda ash inventories also rose. The supply - demand situation is gradually adjusting, and the future market depends on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals fluctuated at night. Recent volatility was mainly due to the nomination of the Fed chair and capital stampede. In the long run, gold is expected to resume its upward trend, while investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.15% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.84% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and downstream demand is also mixed. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [22]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fell 0.23% at night. Short - term spot - level upward drivers are limited, but long - term factors such as low inventory and stable demand provide support [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate main contract touched the daily limit down and then slightly recovered. The market has high attention, and downstream buyers are cautious. Supply and demand factors are complex, and a cautious short - selling view is maintained [24][25]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke main contracts fluctuated at night. Steel production and demand are in a seasonal off - peak, but import disruptions and pre - holiday restocking provide support [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. The macro - environment is improving, and raw - material costs provide support. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Shipping volumes and port inventories have changed, and steel mills will continue to purchase on - demand [28]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meals**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and rose at night. Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US - China soybean purchase plan affects the market. Domestic high inventories and sufficient supply expectations pressure prices [29]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weak, while rapeseed oil rose slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong and production is falling, but market supply expectations affect prices [30][31]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated and were slightly stronger. With a seasonal supply increase and import pressure, prices are expected to remain low in the short term [32]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures maintained a volatile trend. With approaching Spring Festival, the market has a certain demand support, but import factors may limit price increases [33]. - **Hogs**: The hog market continued to be weak and volatile, with regional differences. The market is in a "price - decline and reluctance - to - sell" game, and pre - holiday prices are expected to adjust [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose 3.86%. Pre - holiday spot freight rates are expected to decline. The market has a large discount, and future price trends depend on factors such as the pre - April 1st export rush and shipping company price increases [35].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 6 日 0 / 47 | 股指期货：风险偏好继续走低 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：风偏反复，关注债市机会 4 | | 蛋白粕：美豆需求端迎来好转 | 盘面整体偏强 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价下跌 | 国内价格相对偏强 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽幅震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 | 现货小幅上涨 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随原料延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：资金和情绪交易为主，波动较大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：成本支撑较强，多单持有 15 | | 金银：悲观情绪蔓延 短期波动加剧 16 | | --- | | 铂钯 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-02-05 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4665. 2 | -0. 31 | -0. 97 | -0. 97 | 1. 42 | 1.42 | | | 上证50期货 | 3061. 4 | -0. 17 | -0. 41 | -0. 41 | 1.2 | 1.2 | | | 中证500期货 | 8120. 2 | -1.59 | -2.9 | -2.9 | 10. 29 | 10. 29 | | | 中证1000期货 | 8039.8 | -1. 31 | -2. 67 | -2. 67 | 8. 12 | 8. 12 | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102. 434 | 0. 04 | 0. 04 | 0. 04 | -0.02 | -0.02 | | | 5年期国债期货 | 105. 91 | 0.08 | 0.02 ...