Group 1: OPEC+ Production and Market Dynamics - OPEC+ has accelerated its production increase, with a significant rise in daily output planned for August, aiming to restore previously cut production levels ahead of schedule [3][4][6] - In June, OPEC's total oil production reached 27.235 million barrels per day, showing a month-on-month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year increase of 700,000 barrels per day [4] - The internal conflicts within OPEC+ regarding production quotas may intensify as they attempt to capture market share, potentially leading to concerns about oversupply in the market [6] Group 2: Global Oil Demand and Economic Factors - Major energy agencies have downgraded global oil demand forecasts for this year by 200,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, reflecting concerns over economic conditions and trade tensions [9] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory has significantly decreased, with a reduction of 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels as of July 11, indicating strong demand during the summer consumption season [8] - China's crude oil imports showed a slight increase in the first half of the year, with a total of 27.9386 million tons imported, up 1.4% year-on-year, suggesting resilience in demand [10] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Futures Positioning - The international crude oil futures market has shown mixed net long positions, with WTI futures seeing a significant decrease of 46,947 contracts, while Brent futures increased by 20,989 contracts [11] - The overall sentiment in the oil market remains divided, with strong demand factors countering the increasing supply pressures from OPEC+ [13]

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market is characterized by high volatility as supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions intertwine, leading to uncertain oil price trends [2] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Disruptions - Geopolitical risks remain a significant factor supporting oil prices, with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and unresolved Red Sea shipping security issues [3] - The situation in Ukraine continues to impact the global energy market, with Russian oil exports still constrained by sanctions, providing a solid price floor for crude oil [3] - OPEC+ has extended its production cuts until the first quarter of 2025 to address global demand slowdown and potential economic downturn, with Saudi Arabia and Russia maintaining a united front [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Demand Outlook - The uncertainty on the demand side is becoming more apparent, with the U.S. economy showing signs of slowing growth but not yet facing a hard landing [4] - The Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts, but its cautious stance on inflation limits the upside for oil demand [4] - China's crude oil imports remained high in the first half of the year, but economic recovery is slowing, leading to cautious optimism regarding future demand [4] Group 3: Dollar Fluctuations and Financial Attributes - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index has indirectly supported oil prices, as a weaker dollar typically boosts commodity prices [5] - The financial attributes of crude oil are increasing, with hedge funds and asset managers raising their net long positions in oil futures, indicating a growing bullish sentiment [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The oil market is expected to maintain a "volatile but strong" pattern in the short term, supported by controlled supply and unresolved geopolitical risks, while macroeconomic pressures and weak demand may limit further price increases [6]

2025 年 6 月 24 日 三季度或仍有反弹，中长期下行压力确定 ---2025 年原油期货半年度行情展望 | 黄柳楠 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 | huangliunan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 赵旭意 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 | zhaoxuyi@gtht.com | | 王涵西 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 | wanghanxi@gtht.com | 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：在 6 月下大幅回吐地缘溢价后，三季度中上旬，油价仍有可能有最后一轮反弹。其中，BRENT、WTI 或有年内最 后机会突破 80 美元/桶，SC 或挑战 580 元/桶。中长期看，下半年油价下行压力仍旧巨大。其中，BRENT、WTI 或跌破前低考 验 50 美元/桶，SC 或考验 420 元/桶； 我们的逻辑：撇开地缘、贸易战两大不确定性，三季度中上旬偏多，主要基于 OPEC+增产不及预期、美国页岩油产量下滑、 全球库存中枢偏低,去库较难证伪。中长期看空，主要基于 OPEC+、巴西、圭亚那、挪威等增产下长期过剩压力较大，累库 ...

Group 1 - The asphalt market is currently facing a stalemate, with prices fluctuating between 3500 to 3620 yuan/ton, and a lack of significant upward or downward movement due to high valuations and weak demand expectations [1][2] - The supply-demand balance is weakly maintained, with low inventory rates below 0.2 providing support for prices, while seasonal demand shows mild improvement [2][3] - The northern resource supply remains tight, but the southern market is experiencing lower prices, disrupting the traditional pricing dominance of northern regions [3] Group 2 - The market is characterized by strong support but weak driving forces, leading to limited operational space for asphalt trading [3] - The overall fundamentals of the asphalt market are resilient, but there are structural regional contradictions that need to be addressed [3] - The expectation for inventory accumulation in 2025 is weak, and the market is not expected to see significant accumulation in the second quarter [2]