原油库存压力
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能源日报-20260128
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 11:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The crude oil price rebounded significantly, but the long - term supply - demand relaxation suppresses the upward space of oil prices [1] - The fuel oil market is expected to follow the crude oil and continue to fluctuate strongly, with the pattern of differentiation between high - and low - sulfur fundamentals continuing [2] - The asphalt showed a strong performance, with cost - side multiple boosts [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Brent crude rose to nearly $67 per barrel, and WTI to nearly $63 per barrel [1] - Winter storms caused the US energy infrastructure and power grid to be under pressure, and oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day of production last weekend, accounting for about 15% of the national output [1] - The Tengiz oilfield could not recover less than half of its normal production by February 7, and its recovery has been falling short of expectations [1] - API inventory data showed a draw in crude oil, which was bullish [1] - The continuous weakening of the US dollar index also boosted the oil price [1] - The global crude oil market in January 2026 has significant inventory pressure, and the supply - demand relaxation is a long - term factor suppressing the upward space of oil prices [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil continued to strengthen structurally, with the spot premium widening, due to port congestion in Singapore and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the cold wave pushed up the natural gas price, and the strengthening of diesel cracking supported the low - sulfur cracking spread [2] - In the medium term, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to show a slight growth trend, with increased exports from Kuwait and a postponed return of the RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 4%, with limited supply pressure as some refineries in Shandong stopped production and major refineries in the South maintained normal production [3] - The shipment volume of 54 sample enterprises increased by 15% month - on - month, and downstream consumption improved [3] - Since January, the shipment of Venezuelan oil to China has decreased significantly, and refineries may face higher costs of alternative raw materials in the later first quarter [3] - The cost - side boosts made the asphalt perform strongly [3]