Core Insights - The launch of crude oil options has led to stable operations, active trading, and rapid growth in trading volume and open interest. The returns of crude oil futures do not follow a normal distribution, exhibiting skewness and heavy tails, indicating more frequent large price changes than would be expected under normal distribution [1][5]. Group 1: Crude Oil Futures Performance - The average return of crude oil futures increased from 0.0036% before the options launch to 0.0605% after, while the median rose from 0.0452% to 0.2206% [3][4]. - The standard deviation of returns increased slightly from 2.31% to 2.61%, indicating a minor rise in the dispersion of returns post-launch [3][4]. - The JB test results confirm that the returns of crude oil futures before and after the options launch do not follow a normal distribution, with both periods showing a JB statistic greater than 6 [5]. Group 2: Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility calculations show that the volatility of crude oil futures has increased since the launch of options, with the average historical volatility rising from 0.3426 to 0.4211 [10]. - The volatility exhibits impulse characteristics, with sharp spikes followed by reversals, indicating extreme short-term fluctuations [11]. - Seasonal patterns in volatility have been identified, with higher volatility observed in March, April, May, and October, while lower volatility occurs in January, February, August, September, and November [15]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Implications - The primary factors driving the rise in the domestic crude oil market include geopolitical premiums and OPEC production cut expectations, while declines are influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and macroeconomic factors [16]. - The relationship between crude oil futures and historical volatility is weak, with correlation coefficients ranging from 6.025% to 19.816% across different volatility calculation methods [9]. - The characteristics of historical volatility suggest that investors can utilize these insights for volatility trading, as the short-term volatility tends to be more volatile than long-term volatility [19].