Demand Side - In 2024, global oil demand growth slows to 1.0%, reaching 103.1 million barrels per day, primarily due to a slowdown in China's oil demand growth, while non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia, contribute significantly to the increase [9][18][20] - The overall maritime oil trade volume is expected to decline by 0.7% year-on-year, but the oil ton-mile trade volume sees a 2.4% increase due to heightened cargo volumes on long-distance routes and geopolitical risks affecting shipping schedules [1][2] Supply Side - The global oil transportation market capacity increases slightly by 0.2% in 2024, but the capacity of VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) continues to shrink, with only one new ship delivered throughout the year [2][3] - The aging fleet poses a significant challenge, with over 42% of oil tankers being over 15 years old, and a peak in scrapping expected post-2025, while current orders are insufficient to cover the capacity loss from older ships [2][3] 2025 Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply side for oil transportation in 2025 will be influenced by sanctions that could accelerate the clearing of effective capacity, leading to further shortages in fleet supply [3] - Demand growth in 2025 will hinge on India's economic development and China's economic recovery, with OPEC+'s production increase plans being critical [3][4] Investment Recommendations - In 2025, the recovery of demand will determine the extent of price increases in the oil shipping market, with international events influencing short-term price elasticity [4] - Beneficiary stocks include COSCO Shipping Energy (A/H) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH) [4]