中国油轮在霍尔木兹海峡的实时通行情况（截至2026年3月3日） 1. 通行状态：特殊豁免，安全通行 – 伊朗官方承诺：伊朗已明确承诺保障中国船只的安全通行，这是基于中伊长期能源合作的特殊安排。 – 实际案例： – 中远海能"新龙洋轮"（VLCC）于2月28日晚间安全通过海峡。 – 伊朗官方承诺：伊朗已明确承诺保障中国船只的安全通行，这是基于中伊长期能源合作的特殊安排。 – 实际案例： – 中远海能"新龙洋轮"（VLCC）于2月28日晚间安全通过海峡。 – 招商轮船"新海辽轮"（VLCC）同期顺利通过。 – 3月3日，一艘中远海运货轮在伊朗革命卫队快艇引导下，成功穿越海峡并靠泊伊朗阿巴斯港。 – 并非唯一：俄罗斯油轮和货轮也在正常通行，未受伊朗警告影响，因此"只允许中国通过"的说法不准确。 2. 航运公司最新公告 – 招商轮船"新海辽轮"（VLCC）同期顺利通过。 < 中国油轮在霍尔木兹海峡的实时通行情况（截至2026年3月3日） 1. 通行状态：特殊豁免，安全通行 – 其他公司：招商南油、中远海控等也表示将密切关注局势，评估风险。 3. 整体航运格局：近乎停摆，中俄例外 – 全球航运量暴跌：3月1日通过海峡的 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ A股三大指数今日集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌1.43%，收报4122.68点；深证成指跌3.07%，收报14022.39点；创业板指跌2.57%，收报3209.48点。 沪深京三市成交额达到3.16万亿，较昨日放量1118亿。 行业板块呈现普跌态势，稀土、军工、小金属、半导体、能源金属、有色金属板块跌幅居前，石油石化、航运港口、煤炭板块逆市走强。 个股方面，上涨股票数量超过600只，逾80只股票涨停。石油石化板块逆市掀涨停潮，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油再度集体涨停。 01 风暴席卷亚太股市！ 今日全球股市继续承压——美国股指期货和亚太资本市场迎来"黑色周二"。 MSCI亚太指数下跌3%至249.30点。 日经225收于56,279.05点，跌 3.06%；东证TOPIX收于3,772.17点，跌3.2%。 恒生指数收跌1.12%，恒生科技指数收跌2.26%。 中银证券表示，美以军事打击伊朗对于全球市场及资产价格的影响取决于行动的目标及持续性。目前来看，对于A股的影响更多集中在风险偏好层 面，中期来看，A股市场将会回归国内基本面及政策预期。 02 三桶油再次集体涨停！ 韩国 ...

Group 1: Metal Sector - Hongda Co. (600331.SH) is projected to have a net profit of 0.36 billion CNY in 2024, but is expected to incur a loss of 0.80 billion CNY in 2025, with a significant recovery to 4.00 billion CNY in 2026, resulting in a PE ratio of 131.36[17] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is forecasted to achieve a net profit of 320.51 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 913.17 billion CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 32.86 to 11.53[17] - Huaxi Nonferrous (600301.SH) is expected to see net profits rise from 6.58 billion CNY in 2024 to 12.69 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 32.29[17] Group 2: Construction Materials - Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ) is projected to have net profits of 1.08 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 21.94 billion CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio of 19.60[17] - China Jushi (600176.SH) is expected to grow its net profit from 24.45 billion CNY in 2024 to 47.80 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 22.65[17] - The construction materials sector is facing a significant supply exit, with 2024 commodity housing sales expected to decline by approximately 47% compared to 2021[44] Group 3: Transportation - YTO Express (600233.SH) is forecasted to achieve net profits of 40.12 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 50.84 billion CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio of 13.20[17] - COSCO Shipping Energy (600026.SH) is expected to see net profits rise from 40.37 billion CNY in 2024 to 98.19 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 10.94[17] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Boyuan Chemical (000683.SZ) is projected to have net profits of 18.11 billion CNY in 2024, decreasing to 23.43 billion CNY by 2026, with a PE ratio of 14.87[17] - Xingfa Group (600141.SH) is expected to see net profits rise from 16.01 billion CNY in 2024 to 24.54 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 19.62[17] Group 5: Power and Coal - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) is forecasted to achieve net profits of 63.45 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decrease to 61.52 billion CNY by 2026, maintaining a PE ratio of 17.20[17] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) is expected to see net profits rise from 53.42 billion CNY in 2024 to 68.98 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 9.98[17]

智通财经APP获悉，由于韩国船东的大规模押注以及日益加剧的地缘政治紧张局势将运费推向极端水 平，锁定原油超级油轮长期租约的成本已飙升至历史纪录。 这是 1988 年有数据记录以来的最高水平。 根据全球最大船舶经纪公司旗下的克拉克森研究服务公司的数据，租用一艘超大型原油运输船一年的平 均成本目前已超过 92,000 美元 / 天。 而最新型、燃油效率最高的船舶，日租金更是超过了 10 万美元。 据报道，美军在约旦、沙特、巴林、阿联酋等多国部署了战机、预警机和无人机等力量。此外，美国总 统特朗普正考虑对伊朗实施一次"有限规模"的军事打击，以迫使其接受美国提出的核协议要求。值得注 意的是，此前有报道称，美国考虑扣押涉伊朗油轮以施压。 中信建投研究认为，由于欧美对于影子船队的扩大制裁，特别是自2025年年初以来，美国加大了对影子 船队的制裁，导致市场上有效运力缩减，推升了运价中枢，也提高了运价在旺季的弹性。目前VLCC中 有约16%船队属于受限船，特别是与俄罗斯紧密相关的阿芙拉型船占比已经达到33%。2025年OPEC改 变了以往减产策略，转向增产，并进入到实质增产阶段。担忧原油供应中断，中国开始补库存。由于欧 美对 ...

消息面上，特朗普2月3号发文称已与印度总理莫迪达成共识，印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油，转而大幅增 加从美国采购能源等产品；美印双方达成贸易协议，美国对印度的对等关税将从25%下调至18%。财通 证券（601108）认为，后续伴随政策落地，印度将停止购买俄油，国内需求转向合规原油，有望进一步 支撑合规市场运价。中期来看，伴随上游扩产&地缘事件&制裁收紧利好供需，运价中枢有望保持上 涨。 国泰海通证券指出，2026年以来地缘局势紧张，船东情绪高涨，且有海外船东加大租船控制市场，近期 油运运价维持高位。上周中东-中国VLCCTCE维持在12万美元以上高位。提示船东情绪仍将可能持续影 响短期运价，建议关注运价中枢同比上升趋势，该行预计2026Q1油轮盈利将同比大增数倍。重点提示 油运不是短炒地缘局势，而是具有"超级牛市"长逻辑。看好全球原油增产继续驱动油运需求增长，油轮 加速老龄化将保障合规运力供给刚性持续。 中远海能（600026）(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.26%，报15.43港元，成交额1.05亿港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the potential for a "golden era" in aviation [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes India's potential reduction in oil imports from Russia, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which could impact shipping dynamics [3]. - The strengthening of the US dollar is expected to benefit the shipbuilding sector, with Q1 performance anticipated to improve [3]. - The report suggests that the aviation sector is poised for significant growth due to historical high passenger load factors and increasing international travel demand, despite supply constraints [3]. Summary by Sections Transportation Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.90%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.23 percentage points [4]. - The aviation sector saw the highest increase at 8.15%, while the raw materials supply chain services experienced a decline of 2.10% [4]. Shipping and Freight Rates - The VLCC average freight rate rose slightly by 2% to $124,743 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates remaining stable at $134,282 per day [3]. - The report notes fluctuations in various shipping rates, with Suezmax rates declining by 3% to $94,768 per day and Aframax rates down by 7% to $91,146 per day [3]. Aviation Sector - The report highlights the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to constrain supply [3]. - It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as more capacity is allocated to international routes, marking a turning point for the industry [3]. Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to gain market share [3]. - SF Express is noted for its structural adjustments and potential bottoming opportunities [3]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with national rail freight reaching 76.1 million tons, a 2.27% increase week-on-week [3]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend stocks and undervalued stocks with potential for market capitalization management [3].

中信证券表示，2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，该 行预计年化VLCC运价中枢将落在60000美元/天-75000美元/天。周期上行兑现期下，VLCC运价弹性释 放有望带动明年船队利润快速增长。短期看，季节性运输淡季临近，建议择机布局。国泰海通认为，油 运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首季业绩将同比大增。该行预 计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。 消息面上，据市场媒体报道，马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服 务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。据了解，自2023年末开始，红海海域发生多起袭击事 件，此后航运公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易 通道。与此同时，马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支 持。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.58%，报14.85港元，成交额7522.98万港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping sector has shown strong performance since early 2026, with a cumulative increase of over 20%, positioning it as a leading sector in the A-share market amid rising prices [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading oil shipping company, China Merchants Energy Shipping, has seen its stock price surpass the historical high set in 2007, nearly doubling from its low in 2025. Another major player, COSCO Shipping Energy, has also increased by nearly 50% from its 2025 low [5]. - The rise in stock prices for these leading companies aligns closely with the increase in oil shipping rates, which reached a five-year high in the fourth quarter of 2025 after hitting a multi-year low in July 2025 [5][7]. - In 2025, China Merchants Energy Shipping reported a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%-29%, with the fourth quarter net profit showing a significant increase of 55%-90% [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil shipping market is characterized by a cyclical nature, requiring positive changes in both supply and demand to initiate a new cycle. Currently, the supply side is influenced by the age of vessels and operational efficiency, with a significant portion of the fleet being older than 20 years [8][9]. - The global fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) is experiencing a decline in overall capacity, with older vessels facing operational inefficiencies and potential exit from compliant markets [9][12]. - On the demand side, the lifting of OPEC+ production cuts and increased production from countries like Brazil and Guyana have positively impacted oil shipping demand, extending average shipping distances and enhancing demand for oil transport [14][15]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The oil shipping industry is showing signs of entering a new upward cycle, supported by a tightening supply and recovering demand. Historical patterns suggest that significant price increases can occur when supply is reduced and demand increases simultaneously [15][19]. - The consolidation within the domestic oil shipping market has led to increased market concentration, with China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy being the top players globally [17][19]. - The current geopolitical landscape emphasizes energy security, which adds intrinsic value to the oil shipping sector, further supported by the cyclical recovery in shipping rates [19].

Core Insights - The global oil tanker freight rates are experiencing a significant surge due to increased control by the U.S. over Venezuelan oil flows, which were previously managed by an aging "shadow fleet" [1] - Shipowners are deploying compliant tankers near the U.S. Gulf of Mexico in anticipation of increased demand, leading to a substantial rise in freight rates for routes to China [1] Group 1: Freight Rate Increases - Daily earnings for routes from the Middle East to China have nearly tripled this year, reaching approximately $114,000 [4] - Freight rates from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to China have increased by 73% [4] - Vessels traveling from the Caribbean to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have also seen earnings jump, reaching around $82,800, a near two-year high [4] Group 2: Notable Vessel Movements - A rare occurrence involved an empty tanker, the "Megan Glory," initiating a 45-day journey from the Middle East to the Americas, indicating shifting shipping patterns [4] - The "Megan Glory" had initially planned to remain in the region but later decided to head to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico for further instructions [4] - The "Al Riqqa" tanker achieved a record high for the year with a Worldscale points index of 140, planning to transport Kuwaiti crude oil to Singapore [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that changes in crude oil supply and trade in certain hotspot regions have a complex impact on the oil tanker market [2] - A sustained reduction in heavy oil supply may lead domestic refineries to source oil products from alternative sources, resulting in structural adjustments in transportation demand [2] - There is a potential increase in long-distance compliance demand, which should be monitored as market changes are expected to become clearer after the Spring Festival [2]