Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Goldman Sachs projects a positive outlook for the global transportation industry by 2026, particularly in the aviation and oil tanker sectors, while expressing caution in the container shipping segment [1] Group 2 - In the aviation sector, Goldman Sachs expects international demand to rise and supply constraints to persist, leading to an estimated return on equity of 22% for airlines by 2027, which exceeds the industry cycle average [1] - The report highlights a preference for specific airline stocks, namely Air China H-shares and China Eastern Airlines A-shares, due to anticipated upward pressure on ticket prices [1] Group 3 - In the container shipping sector, Goldman Sachs has adopted a cautious stance due to a recovery in supply, which is expected to compress industry profit margins [1] - The report notes that new ship orders have exceeded expectations, with orders representing 33% of existing capacity, and potential reopening of the Red Sea could pose downward risks by releasing about 10% of effective capacity [1] Group 4 - In the oil tanker segment, Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook, forecasting a continued upward cycle in spot freight rates through 2026 [1] - The report indicates that China's oil reserve process may take up to a year, exceeding market expectations, while effective capacity is projected to grow by only 1%, benefiting companies like China Merchants Energy due to their exposure to the oil tanker and Chinese import markets [1]

Group 1: Airline Industry - Goldman Sachs forecasts that international demand will rise while supply constraints persist, leading to an expected return on equity (ROE) of 22% for airlines by 2027, surpassing the industry cycle average [1] - Despite risks associated with Japan in the first half of the year, the outlook for airline stocks remains positive, with expectations for further increases in ticket prices; preferred stocks include Air China H-shares and China Eastern Airlines A-shares [1] Group 2: Container Shipping - The recovery in supply has led Goldman Sachs to adopt a more cautious stance on container shipping, predicting a compression in industry profit margins [1] - New ship orders this year have exceeded expectations, resulting in an order-to-existing capacity ratio of 33% [1] - Potential reopening of the Red Sea may pose additional downside risks, potentially releasing about 10% of effective capacity, which could lead to cash consumption issues for COSCO Shipping Holdings [1] Group 3: Oil Tankers - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for oil tankers, expecting spot freight rates to rise further during the ongoing upward cycle in 2026 [1] - The process of China's oil reserve buildup may take up to a year, longer than the market's expectation of three months, while effective capacity is predicted to grow by only 1% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy is expected to benefit due to its significant exposure to oil tankers and the Chinese import market [1]

Demand Side - In 2024, global oil demand growth slows to 1.0%, reaching 103.1 million barrels per day, primarily due to a slowdown in China's oil demand growth, while non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia, contribute significantly to the increase [9][18][20] - The overall maritime oil trade volume is expected to decline by 0.7% year-on-year, but the oil ton-mile trade volume sees a 2.4% increase due to heightened cargo volumes on long-distance routes and geopolitical risks affecting shipping schedules [1][2] Supply Side - The global oil transportation market capacity increases slightly by 0.2% in 2024, but the capacity of VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) continues to shrink, with only one new ship delivered throughout the year [2][3] - The aging fleet poses a significant challenge, with over 42% of oil tankers being over 15 years old, and a peak in scrapping expected post-2025, while current orders are insufficient to cover the capacity loss from older ships [2][3] 2025 Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply side for oil transportation in 2025 will be influenced by sanctions that could accelerate the clearing of effective capacity, leading to further shortages in fleet supply [3] - Demand growth in 2025 will hinge on India's economic development and China's economic recovery, with OPEC+'s production increase plans being critical [3][4] Investment Recommendations - In 2025, the recovery of demand will determine the extent of price increases in the oil shipping market, with international events influencing short-term price elasticity [4] - Beneficiary stocks include COSCO Shipping Energy (A/H) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH) [4]