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硅铁市场周报:开工低位需求淡季,库存压制利润亏损-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 09:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry shows characteristics of reduced development and optimized stock, with the overall demand for steel still weak, and the production profit of ferroalloys is negative. The silicon iron market is affected by factors such as macro - policies, overseas trade, and supply - demand relationships. The silicon iron main contract is expected to fluctuate, considering the high inventory and off - season demand despite the low - level operation of alloy manufacturers' production [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The central government emphasizes eliminating backward production capacity, and the market sentiment is affected by the call to remove in - fighting and reduce redundant competition. From January to May, the national crude steel output was 432 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the apparent consumption of domestic crude steel was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US has new trade policies and legislative actions. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, and the "Big Beautiful" bill passed in the US House of Representatives, bringing a deficit burden of $3.4 trillion [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The operation of silicon iron production is at a low level, and the demand for steel is still weak. The production profit of ferroalloys is negative, with the spot profit in Inner Mongolia at - 360 yuan/ton and in Ningxia at - 320 yuan/ton. Before mid - August, the impact of Sino - US tariffs is expected to decline, but the impact of tariffs from other countries needs attention [7]. - **Cost Aspect**: The electricity cost in Ningxia and the price of semi - coke in Ningxia remain unchanged compared to the previous period [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the macro - policy boost and the current situation of low - level production and high inventory in the industry, the silicon iron main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 4, the position of silicon iron futures contracts increased by 4,123 lots to 405,300 lots, and the 1 - 9 contract spread increased by 28 compared to the previous period. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5,301 to 12,277, and the spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 5,280 yuan/ton [9][13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, the basis of silicon iron was - 154 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 compared to the previous period [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 31.95%, an increase of 0.26% compared to the previous period, and the daily average output was 14,320 tons, an increase of 380 tons. The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 20,481.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.63%, and the weekly supply of national silicon iron was 100,200 tons [28]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 3.51% compared to the previous period [30][32]. - **Upstream**: As of June 30, the electricity price for silicon manganese and silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. As of July 3, the average price of semi - coke in Ningxia remained unchanged. The spot production profit in Ningxia was - 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and in Inner Mongolia, it was - 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [36][41]. - **Downstream**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 14,400 tons compared to the previous week but an increase of 15,300 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the total export volume of silicon iron was 165,400 tons, a decrease of 15.97% compared to the same period last year [44].